Understanding uncertainty rca - 20 09 18-compressed
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This is the opening talk for the forthcoming Future Trends and Global Innovation Executive Workshop taking place in partnership with the Royal College of Art on 20/21 Sept 2018 - https://www.rca.ac.uk/short-courses/executive-education/future-trends-global-and-innovation/ executive-education@rca.ac.uk It gives an introduction to looking ahead to make sense of future trends so we can better identify emerging opportunities. Adding in multiple leading examples, it explores the use of scenarios, expert dialogue and the build up to the creation of future agenda as the world's largest open foresight platform. The 2 day workshop that this kicks off is an accelerated journey from insight to innovation, this highly interactive course mixes trend immersion, discussion of implications and development of future propositions.
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Understanding uncertainty rca - 20 09 18-compressed
- 1. Future Trends and Global Innovation Understanding Uncertainty RCA | London | 20/21 Sept 2018 The world’s leading open foresight program
- 2. Inspiration – Looking for new innovation opportunities
- 3. Prediction – An ideal ambition that is (nearly) impossible
- 4. Roadmaps – Making things simple - we hope
- 5. Demand Forecasts – Playing to our comfort zone
- 6. Alternate Paths – The unexpected routes to the future
- 7. Obscurity – Difficult to see further than the immediate short term
- 8. Notable Quotes – Several popular views on the future “The purpose of looking at the future is to disturb the present.” Gaston Berger “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” Peter Drucker “The future is already here, it's just not very evenly distributed.” William Gibson “We are made wise not by the recollection of our past, but by the responsibility for our future.” George Bernard Shaw
- 9. Foresight vs. Insight – Differentiating between the predictable and the uncertain
- 10. Getting it Right – Thames Barrier need identified 1954, opened 1984 - used 10x plan
- 11. A VUCA World – Adopted from US Military and now business mainstream Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous
- 12. Five Reasons to Do Foresight – Here we are focusing on the first two of these Exploring and setting new strategic direction Identifying new innovation areas Providing thought leadership Improving management dialogue Building a more adaptive, responsive culture
- 13. Traditional Strategy Models - Monitor strategy, results and impact achieved. Implement strategy Monitor events Modify objectives Evaluate Impact Formulate strategy
- 14. Adding Foresight - Organisation more prepared and responsive to wider context. Implement strategy Monitor events Monitor the system Gather information Spot signals Watch trends Make sense Rehearse responses Modify objectives Evaluate Impact Formulate strategy
- 15. Futures Perspectives - Differentiate the possible, probable and plausible ‘As-Is’ View Today ‘Could Be’ View 2030+ Plausible Probable Possible
- 16. Scenarios – Alternative future narratives that explore what might be A B C ‘As-Is’ View Today ‘Could Be’ View 2030+ A B C
- 17. Common Scenario Confusions – Same term but three different applications Global Elites New Multilateralism National Self Interest Networked Scale Global Collaboration Fragmented and Local Narrow View Broad View HIGH BASE LOW A B C
- 18. Shell Scenarios – Developing two (or three) credible alternative views
- 19. Technology Futures - GameChanger engaging with the external ‘dream team’
- 20. Seeing Beyond the Now – Informed innovation opportunities with major impact
- 21. Common Aim - Connecting the inside-out and outside-in perspectives
- 22. Future Agenda - The world’s largest open foresight programme
- 23. 2010 Global Programme – 50 Workshops in 25 Countries
- 24. Lease Everything Rising sustainability imperatives and increasing cost of ownership shift the balance from ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy
- 25. Halting Alzheimer's Stopping mental degradation from Alzheimer’s makes quality ageing more possible by improving cognition and slowing the rate of decline
- 26. Solar Sunrise Increasing governmental focus on energy security and climate change drives the uptake of large-scale solar as the leading renewable supply
- 27. Drone Wars Intelligent UAVs choose their victims themselves as the race for more focused military influence leads to the proliferation of assassination tools
- 28. Mega City States Increasing competition between cities over-rides national priorities as mayors lead bold initiatives to place their cities at the forefront of the global stage
- 29. Outcomes - Vodafone curated the ‘mobile’ filter view to highlight pivotal issues
- 30. Future Agenda 2015 - Doubled face-to-face interaction and raised online debate Future Agenda 2010 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2015 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
- 31. Future Agenda 2015 Topics – Looking for crossover as well as regional differences Cities Education Learning Transport Collaboration Energy Loyalty Travel Company Faith Payments Water Connectivity Food Privacy Wealth Currency Government Resources Work Ageing Data Health Trade
- 32. 2015 Event Locations – Broader reach including more non-mega-city views
- 33. Focused Open Foresight – Ongoing deeper dives into key areas of interest Future of Cities (2015/16) https://www.futureofcities.city Future of Philanthropy (2016/17) https://www.thefutureofphilanthropy.org Future of Patient Data (2017/18) https://www.futureofpatientdata.org Future Value of Data (2018) Future of Autonomous Vehicles (2018/19)
- 34. Useage - Leading organisations identifying options and defining strategic pathways
- 35. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org