A UK filter from our global insights on the future of energy - used to provoke discussion on some of the key challenges and opportunities in energy supply and demand for the next decade or so

1. The Future of Energy
Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions
London | 3 April 2018 The world’s leading open foresight program

2. Future Agenda
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses multiple views of the next decade so that we
can all be better informed and stimulate innovation.

3. Fossil Fuels Dominance
With gas growing faster than oil, fossil fuels remain the dominant source of
energy powering the global economy, providing around 60% of the growth in
energy and still accounting for almost 80% of total energy supply in 2035.

4. Declining Energy Intensity
As major growth regions invest in lower-carbon supply options and prioritise
energy efficiency, we see an associated decline in energy intensity in the
economy – achieving reductions of up to 10% over the next decade.

5. Energy Efficiency – The Invisible Fuel
The cheapest and cleanest form of energy is the energy we don’t use.
Adoption of effective energy efficiency measures and careful management of
energy demand will play a key role in creating a clean, low cost energy future.

6. Energy Security
Faced with both increasing nationalism and rising tension between
key energy suppliers, more high energy consumption countries seek to
ensure 100% energy security - even if it comes at a price.

7. Machine Learning Taking Control
With the rise of AI and autonomous computing, machine learning is
increasingly put in control of managing our energy systems –
quickly realizing efficiency savings of around 50% in some sectors.

8. Falling Cost of Solar
The consistent decline in the cost of solar PV modules over time follows
a 20% reduction for every doubling of production. At 2c per kWh, solar takes
off to become the world’s leading energy source with two decades.

9. Energy Storage
Storage, and particularly electricity storage, is the missing piece in
the renewables jigsaw. If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar
energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport industry.

10. High Performance Batteries
Major improvements in improvement in energy density for lithium-ion
and lithium-air batteries all open the door to longer lasting,
smaller batteries - and so accelerate the shift to renewables.

11. HVDC Transmission
Advances in high voltage DC transmission create the lower-cost / lower-loss
power super highway. Long distance transmission changes supply dynamics
and supports concentrated solar power and massive off-shore wind farms.

12. Smart Grids
Pervasive smart meters, smart appliances and dynamic pricing drive a
reengineering of the electricity supply sector. Multiple fully inter-connected
energy systems reduce waste, increase reliability and improve resilience.

13. Rise of the Micro-Actors
We see a blurring of energy consumers and producers – to ‘prosumers’ who
do both: A move to multiple micro-actors working individually and collectively
- supported by new technological developments, including storage.

14. Air Quality
As more experience asthma and other breathing difficulties, urban
air quality becomes a visible issue and the major catalyst for change
– in transport policy, in energy supply and in city design.

15. Influence of Key Cities
Cities are more important than countries and increasingly influential.
Often centres for innovation, they take the lead in setting the new standards
on air quality and EV adoption – moving ahead of national targets.

16. G20 Energy Subsidies
Decades of G20 subsidy for alternative energy systems come to an end.
Greater competition is driven by more transparent pricing,
global investment and socio-political advocacy.

17. Shift in The Investment Landscape
As renewable / storage technologies become cost competitive we see a
sustained shift in investment sentiment towards cleaner energy solutions.
Developing countries’ investments continue to surpass those of the West.

18. Energy Price Volatility
More volatility of energy prices produces greater cost, increased project
timeframes and wider skills gaps. This makes a ‘guessing game’ of long-term
economics for energy providers making it difficult for users to develop plans.

19. Distributed Energy Supply
Key developing economies invest heavily in lower-carbon, distributed
energy with integrated storage to deliver more reliable and affordable power.
This is supported by better market pricing and smarter subsidies.

20. Increasing Value of Data
As organisations try to retain as much information about their customers as
possible, data becomes a currency with a value and a price. It therefore
requires a marketplace where anything that is information is represented.

21. Big Business Defines the Future
Large multinational energy consumers define the future energy mix.
100% renewable energy becomes the norm for key sectors and spurs
development ahead of government and energy suppliers’ expectations

22. Full Cost
Increasing transparency of society’s reliance on nature, intensify
requirements for business to pay the true cost of the resources provided
by ‘natural capital’ and so compensate for their negative impact on society.

23. Dynamic Pricing
The algorithms of Amazon and Uber cross over to affect more businesses,
from energy use to parking. Real-time transparency allows better purchasing
at the same time as margins and yields are automatically enhanced.

24. Accelerating EV Share of Market
Leading OEMs see that, by 2030, around 3 in 10 new vehicles being sold
globally are EVs. This view has changed from 1 in 10 twelve months ago.
The most probable lead markets are seen to be US, China and Europe.

25. Peak Car (in US and EU)
The distance travelled by car and the number of vehicles on the roads in the
EU and the US has passed its maximum. Although the total number of vehicles
in the world doubles from 2010 to 2030, the growth is all in other regions.

26. Deeper Collaboration
Partnerships shift to become more dynamic, long-term, democratised,
multi-party collaborations. Competitor alliances and public participation drive
regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathetic collaboration.

27. Future Agenda
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London
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futureagenda.org
The world’s leading open foresight program
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