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 The	
  Future	
  of	
  Food	
  	
  
	
  Insights	
  from	
  Discussions	
  Building	
  on	
  an	
  Ini4al	
  Perspec4ve	
...
Context	
  
The	
  ini4al	
  perspec4ve	
  on	
  the	
  Future	
  of	
  Food	
  kicked	
  off	
  the	
  	
  
Future	
  Agen...
Increasing	
  Compe77on	
  for	
  Grains	
  
	
  Changes	
  in	
  popula4on	
  and	
  cuisine	
  have	
  led	
  to	
  a	
 ...
More	
  Efficient	
  Produc7on	
  
	
  Food	
  will	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  produced	
  more	
  efficiently.	
  Increased	
  pr...
Second	
  Green	
  Revolu7on	
  
Another	
  Green	
  Revolu4on	
  is	
  required	
  but	
  today’s	
  revolu4on	
  must	
 ...
Investment	
  in	
  Innova7on	
  
	
  There	
  has	
  been	
  a	
  global	
  decline	
  in	
  agricultural	
  R&D	
  in	
 ...
Sustainable	
  Consump7on	
  
Part	
  of	
  the	
  solu4on	
  is	
  the	
  development	
  of	
  consump4on	
  pa[erns	
  t...
Maintaining	
  Global	
  Food	
  Security	
  
	
  Over	
  the	
  next	
  decade	
  maintaining	
  global	
  food	
  securi...
Reinven7ng	
  Diets	
  
	
  Our	
  rela4onship	
  with	
  food	
  must	
  change.	
  We	
  will	
  need	
  to	
  reinvent	...
Educated	
  Consumers	
  
To	
  improve	
  both	
  health	
  and	
  waste	
  we	
  see	
  mul4ple	
  campaigns,	
  both	
 ...
Nutri7onally	
  Balanced	
  Foods	
  
Increasing	
  demand	
  for	
  more	
  affordable,	
  nutri4ous	
  food	
  leads	
  t...
Fair	
  Compensa7on	
  
Fairer	
  prices	
  for	
  farmers,	
  food	
  producers	
  and	
  consumers	
  are	
  driven	
  b...
Food	
  Safety	
  
Led	
  by	
  WHO	
  and	
  other	
  mul4na4onal	
  partnerships,	
  a	
  gradual	
  shi`	
  towards	
  ...
Processed	
  Foods	
  
More,	
  but	
  healthier,	
  ready-­‐prepared	
  and	
  ready-­‐to-­‐eat	
  foods	
  are	
  adopte...
Higher	
  Yields	
  
With	
  a	
  focus	
  on	
  soil	
  rejuvena4on,	
  be[er	
  educa4on	
  of	
  farmers	
  and	
  more...
Feeding	
  the	
  BoHom	
  of	
  the	
  Pyramid	
  
Achieving	
  and	
  maintaining	
  lower	
  prices	
  and	
  more	
  e...
Reducing	
  Food	
  Waste	
  
Postharvest	
  losses	
  of	
  foods	
  in	
  developing	
  countries	
  can	
  amount	
  to...
Investment	
  in	
  Innova7on	
  
	
  The	
  urgent	
  need	
  to	
  redouble	
  the	
  agricultural	
  research	
  effort	...
Targeted	
  Health	
  Foods	
  	
  
More	
  customised	
  foods,	
  blur	
  the	
  line	
  between	
  	
  
pharmaceu4cals	...
Gene7c	
  Cocktails	
  
The	
  ability	
  to	
  match	
  ingredients	
  to	
  personal	
  health	
  traits	
  drives	
  
t...
Almost	
  Zero	
  Waste	
  
Escala4ng	
  waste	
  produc4on	
  and	
  new	
  ahtudes,	
  	
  
approaches,	
  regula4on	
  ...
Natural	
  Plus	
  
The	
  growing	
  affluent	
  consumers	
  increasingly	
  look	
  for	
  natural	
  
op4ons	
  in	
  ma...
Mobile	
  Snacking	
  
With	
  over	
  35%	
  of	
  breakfasts	
  already	
  consumed	
  in	
  the	
  car,	
  	
  
the	
  ...
 	
  
ThoughMul	
  Consump7on	
  
The	
  essence	
  of	
  markets,	
  of	
  produc4on	
  and	
  of	
  buying	
  habits	
  ...
Food	
  as	
  Currency	
  	
  
The	
  West’s	
  insa4able	
  demand	
  for	
  constant	
  variety	
  and	
  abundance	
  i...
Food	
  for	
  Thought	
  
Growing	
  awareness	
  of	
  the	
  ‘whole	
  food	
  system’	
  and	
  open	
  discourse	
  o...
Peak	
  Obesity	
  
Growing	
  consumer	
  demands	
  for	
  transparency	
  and	
  healthy	
  op4ons,	
  along	
  with	
 ...
Food	
  Resource	
  Op7misa7on	
  
New	
  technologies	
  in	
  the	
  food	
  system,	
  from	
  data-­‐driven	
  seasona...
Empowering	
  Local	
  with	
  Global	
  
Alongside	
  consolida4on	
  of	
  large	
  food	
  corpora4ons,	
  we	
  see	
 ...
Holis7c	
  Food	
  Planning	
  
The	
  food	
  system	
  will	
  increasingly	
  be	
  understood	
  in	
  rela4on	
  to	
...
Food	
  Investment	
  Boom?	
  
Greater	
  incen4ves	
  and	
  opportuni4es	
  for	
  both	
  public	
  and	
  private	
  ...
Enabling	
  Food	
  Reuse	
  
Faced	
  with	
  moun4ng	
  regula4on	
  to	
  prevent	
  food	
  reuse,	
  consumers,	
  	
...
Importers	
  to	
  Exporters	
  
Be[er	
  data	
  management,	
  farmer	
  educa4on	
  and	
  gene4cs	
  combine	
  to	
  ...
Less	
  Pes7cides	
  
Improved	
  bio-­‐fer4lisers,	
  be[er	
  bio-­‐control	
  and	
  a	
  changing	
  global	
  perspec...
Blue	
  Food	
  
The	
  opportunity	
  from	
  aqua4c	
  foods	
  -­‐	
  both	
  fish	
  and	
  plants	
  –	
  is	
  develo...
Water	
  as	
  an	
  Issue	
  
Greater	
  awareness	
  of	
  water	
  access,	
  scarcity	
  and	
  control,	
  alongside	...
Urban	
  Farming	
  
Driven	
  by	
  city	
  food-­‐security	
  targets	
  and	
  innova4ve	
  produc4on	
  systems,	
  	
...
Credit	
  Access	
  
Timely	
  access	
  to	
  credit	
  enables	
  farmers	
  to	
  purchase	
  fer5liser	
  and	
  other...
Leveraging	
  the	
  Cloud	
  
More	
  cloud-­‐based	
  solu5ons	
  deliver	
  services	
  with	
  higher	
  levels	
  of	...
Streamlined	
  Processes	
  
BeBer	
  access	
  to	
  informa5on	
  helps	
  farmers	
  to	
  raise	
  yields	
  and	
  in...
Peer-­‐to-­‐peer	
  Marketplaces	
  
Timely	
  access	
  to	
  informa5on	
  and	
  beBer	
  transparency	
  on	
  market	...
Local	
  Foods	
  
Increased	
  transparency	
  around	
  food	
  availability	
  and	
  security,	
  	
  
land	
  use	
  ...
Non-­‐indigenous	
  Foods	
  
Although	
  demand	
  for	
  exo7c	
  ingredients	
  rises,	
  there	
  will	
  be	
  increa...
Low-­‐water	
  Crops	
  
With	
  increased	
  water	
  stress	
  and	
  growing	
  demand	
  for	
  food,	
  more	
  	
  
...
Farm	
  to	
  Market	
  Efficiency	
  
With	
  some	
  countries	
  losing	
  over	
  40%	
  of	
  food	
  in	
  the	
  supp...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
 ...
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Future of food - Insights from Discussions Building on an initial perspective by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland

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Insights from Discussions Building on an Initial Perspective by an initial perspective on the future of food by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland. This includes insights from events already completed adding to the starting point for the global future agenda discussions taking place through 2015 as part of the the futureagenda2.0 programme. www.futureagenda.org

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Future of food - Insights from Discussions Building on an initial perspective by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland

  1. 1.  The  Future  of  Food      Insights  from  Discussions  Building  on  an  Ini4al  Perspec4ve  by:    Professor  Wayne  Bryden  |  University  of  Queensland  
  2. 2. Context   The  ini4al  perspec4ve  on  the  Future  of  Food  kicked  off  the     Future  Agenda  2.0  global  discussions  taking  place  through  2015.     This  summary  builds  on  the  ini4al  view  and  is  updated  as  we  progress.     Ini4al   Perspec4ves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  3. 3. Increasing  Compe77on  for  Grains    Changes  in  popula4on  and  cuisine  have  led  to  a  tremendous  rise  in  the   demand  for  animal-­‐source  protein.  The  compe44on  between  livestock  and   humans  for  grains  and  other  high  quality  plant  foods  is  a  major  challenge.    
  4. 4. More  Efficient  Produc7on    Food  will  need  to  be  produced  more  efficiently.  Increased  produc4vity  must   come  from  a  reduced  land  area  and  resource  base.  We  will  need  to  be  less   dependent  on  resources  that  are  becoming  scarce  or  more  costly.  
  5. 5. Second  Green  Revolu7on   Another  Green  Revolu4on  is  required  but  today’s  revolu4on  must  be  different   to  overcome  environmental,  financial  and  societal  constraints.  It  is  no  longer   possible  to  use  unlimited  water  and  chemical  inputs  to  increase  produc4on.    
  6. 6. Investment  in  Innova7on    There  has  been  a  global  decline  in  agricultural  R&D  in  the  past  four  decades.   There  is  now  an  urgent  need  to  redouble  the  agricultural  research  effort.  The   new  food  producing  system  has  to  be  science-­‐based  with  low  resource  input.    
  7. 7. Sustainable  Consump7on   Part  of  the  solu4on  is  the  development  of  consump4on  pa[erns  that  meet   requirements  in  a  safe,  nutri4ous  and  affordable  manner.  In  developed   countries  this  will  mean  learning  to  eat  sustainably  with  less  reliance  on  meat.    
  8. 8. Maintaining  Global  Food  Security    Over  the  next  decade  maintaining  global  food  security  will  become     much  more  difficult  as  the  popula4on  increases.  We  must     double  food  produc4on  in  a  sustainable  manner.    
  9. 9. Reinven7ng  Diets    Our  rela4onship  with  food  must  change.  We  will  need  to  reinvent  our  diets  to   meet  our  nutri4onal  requirements  for  op4mal  health  and  in  so  doing  consume   fewer  calories  and  less  meat:  We  must  be  prepared  to  pay  realis4c  prices.  
  10. 10. Educated  Consumers   To  improve  both  health  and  waste  we  see  mul4ple  campaigns,  both  global     and  local  -­‐  at  school  and  in  the  home  –  that  help  consumers  be[er     understand  labelling,  the  benefits  of  home  cooking  and  balanced  diets.  
  11. 11. Nutri7onally  Balanced  Foods   Increasing  demand  for  more  affordable,  nutri4ous  food  leads  to  be[er   understanding  of  the  links  between  food,  physiology  and  health  -­‐  and  a   revisi4ng  of  the  past  when  food  was  more  func4onal  and  less  aesthe4c.  
  12. 12. Fair  Compensa7on   Fairer  prices  for  farmers,  food  producers  and  consumers  are  driven  by  the   elimina4on  of  subsidies,  the  introduc4on  of  sustainability  accoun4ng  into     the  corporate  P&L  and  increased  transparency  and  traceability  of  supply.  
  13. 13. Food  Safety   Led  by  WHO  and  other  mul4na4onal  partnerships,  a  gradual  shi`  towards   more  harmonised  and  global  food  standards  and  interna4onal  regula4ons  has   to  first  overcome  food  poli4cs  and  significant  na4onal  self-­‐interests.  
  14. 14. Processed  Foods   More,  but  healthier,  ready-­‐prepared  and  ready-­‐to-­‐eat  foods  are  adopted  in     key  regions  where  ‘wet’  markets  currently  predominate:  In  some  countries    the  benefits  of  frozen  foods  over  fresh  are  championed  by  governments.  
  15. 15. Higher  Yields   With  a  focus  on  soil  rejuvena4on,  be[er  educa4on  of  farmers  and  more   widespread  use  of  animal  feeds,  medium-­‐sized  Asian  farms  use  proven   technologies  to  more  than  triple  output  per  acre  and  per  litre  of  water.  
  16. 16. Feeding  the  BoHom  of  the  Pyramid   Achieving  and  maintaining  lower  prices  and  more  efficient  large  scale   distribu4on  to  and  within  ci4es  is  a  social  priority.  Balancing  this  with  higher   safety  standards  and  food  service  costs  is  however  a  challenge  for  some.  
  17. 17. Reducing  Food  Waste   Postharvest  losses  of  foods  in  developing  countries  can  amount  to  30-­‐50%  of   produc4on.  In  developed  countries  a  similar  propor4on  is  wasted:  Minimising     this  loss,  that  could  feed  3  billion  people,  is  driven  by  be[er  data  collec4on.  
  18. 18. Investment  in  Innova7on    The  urgent  need  to  redouble  the  agricultural  research  effort  and  overcome   recent  declines  drives  us  towards  a  new  food  producing  system  is  science-­‐ based,  with  low  resource  input  and  a  wider  poreolio  of  consumed  plants.    
  19. 19. Targeted  Health  Foods     More  customised  foods,  blur  the  line  between     pharmaceu4cals  and  food  as  neutragenomics     allow  individualised  diets  to  fit  gene4c  profiles    
  20. 20. Gene7c  Cocktails   The  ability  to  match  ingredients  to  personal  health  traits  drives   the  expansion  of  bespoke  drinks  designed  to  deliver  func4onal     as  well  as  flavour  benefits  to  the  individual.  
  21. 21. Almost  Zero  Waste   Escala4ng  waste  produc4on  and  new  ahtudes,     approaches,  regula4on  and  business  models  lead     many  to  aim  for  an  almost  zero  waste  society  
  22. 22. Natural  Plus   The  growing  affluent  consumers  increasingly  look  for  natural   op4ons  in  many  areas  of  life  and  consump4on   -­‐  across  food,  cosme4cs,  household  goods  and  clothing.      
  23. 23. Mobile  Snacking   With  over  35%  of  breakfasts  already  consumed  in  the  car,     the  US  con4nues  to  lead  the  way  in  mobile  foods,  with  near     constant  snacking  replacing  structured  meals.  
  24. 24.     ThoughMul  Consump7on   The  essence  of  markets,  of  produc4on  and  of  buying  habits  are  all  influenced   by  a  growing  awareness  of  global  and  local  issues  which  help  individuals  and   organisa4ons  to  be[er  form  consump4on  decisions  accordingly.  
  25. 25. Food  as  Currency     The  West’s  insa4able  demand  for  constant  variety  and  abundance  is  puhng   undue  pressure  on  the  food  industry  to  deliver  more  -­‐  thus  crea4ng  a  spiral     of  rising  demand.  As  this  increases  food  may  become  its  own  currency.    
  26. 26. Food  for  Thought   Growing  awareness  of  the  ‘whole  food  system’  and  open  discourse  on  the  role   of  food  in  society,  leads  to  a  return  to  tradi4onal  food  sharing  rituals  and  a   rediscovery  of  the  importance  of  food  to  social  cohesion  and  well-­‐being.    
  27. 27. Peak  Obesity   Growing  consumer  demands  for  transparency  and  healthy  op4ons,  along  with   declining  fast-­‐food  and  so`-­‐drink  sales  in  some  markets,  indicate  the  turning   of  a  corner  on  certain  food-­‐related  health  issues  such  as  childhood  obesity.  
  28. 28. Food  Resource  Op7misa7on   New  technologies  in  the  food  system,  from  data-­‐driven  seasonal  and  market   forecas4ng,  to  robo4cs  and  bio/gen-­‐tech,  lead  to  greater  resilience  to  shocks   (e.g.  drought),  lower  costs  and  bigger  and  be[er  quality  yields.  
  29. 29. Empowering  Local  with  Global   Alongside  consolida4on  of  large  food  corpora4ons,  we  see  hyper-­‐local   diversi4es  in  food  produc4on  and  supply  chains  -­‐  driven  by  global  networks   that  enable  local-­‐to-­‐local  sharing  of  informa4on,  resources,  and  technologies.  
  30. 30. Holis7c  Food  Planning   The  food  system  will  increasingly  be  understood  in  rela4on  to  wider  resource   management  (water,  energy  etc.),  bringing  together  mul4ple  stakeholders   with  mul4ple  goals,  especially  within  local  landscapes  /  catchments.  
  31. 31. Food  Investment  Boom?   Greater  incen4ves  and  opportuni4es  for  both  public  and  private  investors  will   arise  from  technological  developments  and  innova4ons  in  food  produc4on,   and  the  emergence  of  'high-­‐risk,  high-­‐return'  projects  such  as  C4  rice.  
  32. 32. Enabling  Food  Reuse   Faced  with  moun4ng  regula4on  to  prevent  food  reuse,  consumers,     restaurants  and  retailers  lobby  for  changes  in  prac4ce  and  support  peer-­‐to-­‐ peer  plaeorms  that  match  excess  supply  with  demand  and  ensure  delivery.  
  33. 33. Importers  to  Exporters   Be[er  data  management,  farmer  educa4on  and  gene4cs  combine  to  enable   more  food  to  be  produced  from  the  same  land.  Previous  net  food-­‐impor4ng   na4ons  become  self-­‐sufficient  and  some  become  net  exporters.      
  34. 34. Less  Pes7cides   Improved  bio-­‐fer4lisers,  be[er  bio-­‐control  and  a  changing  global  perspec4ve   on,  and  hence  regional  ahtudes  to,  GMO  all  combine  to  help  improve  yield  -­‐   while  reducing  environmental  impact  of  mass  food  produc4on.  
  35. 35. Blue  Food   The  opportunity  from  aqua4c  foods  -­‐  both  fish  and  plants  –  is  developed.   Posi4ve  consumer  percep4ons  and  rising  efficiencies  outweigh  cost,  pollu4on   and  transport  challenges  to  deliver  higher  growth  than  land-­‐based  foods  
  36. 36. Water  as  an  Issue   Greater  awareness  of  water  access,  scarcity  and  control,  alongside  visibility  on   the  true  value  of  water,  all  drive  wider  recogni4on  of  the  challenge.  But,  in   some  regions,  the  absence  of  a  major  crisis  delays  poli4cal  and  social  ac4on.  
  37. 37. Urban  Farming   Driven  by  city  food-­‐security  targets  and  innova4ve  produc4on  systems,     urban  farming  plays  an  increasingly  significant  role  in  many  regions:   reclaiming  waste  ground  and  reducing  supply  chain  complexity.  
  38. 38. Credit  Access   Timely  access  to  credit  enables  farmers  to  purchase  fer5liser  and  other     inputs  to  improve  yields  and  making  it  easier  to  obtain  loans     -­‐  resul5ng  in  a  reduced  need  to  rely  on  high-­‐cost  lenders  
  39. 39. Leveraging  the  Cloud   More  cloud-­‐based  solu5ons  deliver  services  with  higher  levels  of  reliability     and  scalability.  Because  many  are  also  customisable,  they  can  be  tailored     to  fit  the  unique  needs  of  agribusinesses  and  so  improve  efficiency.      
  40. 40. Streamlined  Processes   BeBer  access  to  informa5on  helps  farmers  to  raise  yields  and  income.   Improved  distribu5on  networks  increase  transporta5on  efficiency,  improve   stock  management,  reduce  cash-­‐handling  costs  and  also  lower  fraud  risk.  
  41. 41. Peer-­‐to-­‐peer  Marketplaces   Timely  access  to  informa5on  and  beBer  transparency  on  market  prices     enable  farmers  to  par5cipate  in  peer-­‐to-­‐peer  marketplaces.  They  sell     their  produce,  machinery,  equipment  and  goods  directly  to  buyers  via  SMS.    
  42. 42. Local  Foods   Increased  transparency  around  food  availability  and  security,     land  use  and  economic  literacy  accelerate  greater  consump7on     of  locally  grown  and  processed  foods  
  43. 43. Non-­‐indigenous  Foods   Although  demand  for  exo7c  ingredients  rises,  there  will  be  increased   awareness  of  the  environmental  consequences  of  growing  non-­‐indigenous   crops.  More  informed  consumers  choose  indigenous  produce.  
  44. 44. Low-­‐water  Crops   With  increased  water  stress  and  growing  demand  for  food,  more     drought  and/or  salt  resistant  crops  are  developed  and  grown.     This  is  supported  by  improved  water  management.  
  45. 45. Farm  to  Market  Efficiency   With  some  countries  losing  over  40%  of  food  in  the  supply  chain,  food  storage   and  distribu7on  are  seen  as  areas  for  increased  efficiency.  Private  companies   take  greater  responsibility,  reducing  corrup7on:  Prices  are  more  stable.  
  46. 46. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org  

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