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Future Agenda The world in 2025 - Final

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This is the full range of 60 key insights for the next decade as identified by the 2015 Future Agenda programme. After 120 workshops in 45 cities exploring 24 topics, these are the issues that have been seen to be the core drivers of change for the world in 2025. Available in more detail on the future agenda website, this pdf summary is designed to stimulate thinking on how we can address and build on some of the pivotal challenge we face globally. We hope you find it useful stimulus for discussion and debate on the years ahead.

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Future Agenda The world in 2025 - Final

  1. 1. The World in 2025 Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions 25 February 2016 The world’s leading open foresight program
  2. 2. The World in 2025 This document provides a summary of what we heard from mul0ple expert voices around the world – on how it is changing, what is driving this change, where will be the impacts and why these may evolve over the next decade.
  3. 3. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so we can all be beIer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
  4. 4. Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beIer prepared for the future.
  5. 5. Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisa0ons around the world. Future Agenda became the world’s largest open foresight plaLorm.
  6. 6. Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-to-face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion. Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
  7. 7. Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program took place during 2015 and has been addressing 24 topics via 120 events in 45 ci0es in 35 countries in partnership with 50 core hosts. Ci0es Educa0on Learning Transport Collabora0on Energy Loyalty Travel Company Faith Payments Water Connec0vity Food Privacy Wealth Currency Government Resources Work Ageing Data Health Trade
  8. 8. Eight Key Themes Across the mul0ple discussions, 60 emerging issues are touching upon and connec0ng with eight underlying, and interwoven, themes with different emphasis in different countries. These are detailed below. The CertainOes Interconnected Systems The Data RevoluOon Unequal Access Our Habitat Beliefs and Belonging Power and Influence Changing Business
  9. 9. The CertainOes
  10. 10. Everything Connected Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul0ple networks: everything that can benefit from a connec0on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effec0vely but are concerned about the security of the informa0on that flows.
  11. 11. Imbalanced PopulaOon Growth A growing popula0on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: a child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra0on helps to rebalance, increasing dependency ra0os challenge many.
  12. 12. Key Resource Constraints Economic, physical and poli0cal shortages of key resources increase and drive increasing tension between and within countries. As we exceed the Earth’s natural thresholds, food and water receive as much focus as oil and gas.
  13. 13. ShiUing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power con0nues shi_ing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali0es of popula0on and resource loca0ons are immoveable.
  14. 14. Interconnected Systems
  15. 15. Affordable Healthcare The escala0ng cost of healthcare is further stressed by the need to support the old and the chronically ill. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around budgets and priori0es.
  16. 16. Air Quality Rising air pollu0on in many ci0es is killing people and becomes a visible catalyst for changing mind-sets and policies across health, energy, transporta0on and urban design.
  17. 17. Autonomous Vehicles The shi_ to fully autonomous transport is an evolu0on via truck platoons on highways and small urban delivery pods. Connected cars create the network and test the technologies for the eventual revolu0onary driverless experience.
  18. 18. Deeper CollaboraOon Partnerships shi_ to become more dynamic, long-term, democra0sed, mul0-party collabora0ons. Compe0tor alliances and wider public par0cipa0on drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathe0c collabora0on.
  19. 19. Energy Storage Storage, and par0cularly electricity storage, is the missing piece in the renewables jigsaw. If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar energy as well as accelerate the electrifica0on of the transport industry.
  20. 20. Food Waste 30-50% of our food is wasted either in the supply chain or in consump0on and could feed another 3 billion. Op0mising distribu0on and storage in developing countries and enabling beIer consumer informa0on in others could solve this.
  21. 21. Intra City CollaboraOon Increasing compe00on between ci0es overrides na0onal boundaries and drives change. They compete to aIract the best but also collaborate to avoid the downside of success – over-crowding, under-resourcing and pollu0on.
  22. 22. Open Supply Webs The shi_ from centralised produc0on to decentralised manufacturing drives many to take a ‘smaller and distributed’ approach: global supply chains are replaced by more regional, consumer-orientated supply webs and networks.
  23. 23. Urban Obesity Mass urbanisa0on, reduced ac0vity and poor diets are accelera0ng the rise of obesity. Levels of obesity in most ci0es are growing fast and the associated healthcare burden will soon account for 5% of global GDP.
  24. 24. The Data RevoluOon
  25. 25. Data Ownership Individuals recognize the value of their digital shadows, privacy agents curate clients’ data sets while personal data stores give us transparent control of our informa0on: We retain more ownership of our data and opt to share it.
  26. 26. Enhanced Performance We are developing key technologies that could integrate humans and data to make us safer, more informed and poten0ally super-human in performance - but should we?
  27. 27. Ethical Machines Automa0on spreads beyond trading and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and smarter algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.
  28. 28. Privacy RegulaOon The push towards global standards, protocols and greater transparency is a focus for many na0ons driving proac0ve regula0on, but others choose to opt-out of interna0onal agreements and go their own way.
  29. 29. The Changing Nature of Privacy As privacy is a public issue, more interna0onal frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal data: The balance between protec0on, security, privacy and public good is increasingly poli0cal.
  30. 30. The Value of Data As organisa0ons try to retain as much informa0on about their customers as possible, data becomes a currency with a value and a price. It therefore requires a marketplace where anything that is informa0on is represented.
  31. 31. Truth and Illusion The Internet has democra0sed knowledge and changed the nature of who we trust and why. As confidence in large organisa0ons declines the search for trustworthy alterna0ves evolves. What we believe is changing how we behave.
  32. 32. Unequal Access
  33. 33. Access to Transport The widespread need for individuals to travel short distances becomes a key feature of urban design and regenera0on. Planners use transport infrastructure to influence social change and lower carbon living.
  34. 34. Capitalism Challenge Unable to shake issues like inequality, capitalist socie0es face cries for change, structural challenges and technology enabled freedoms. Together these re-write the rules and propose a collabora0ve landscape of all working together.
  35. 35. Caring for Those LeU Behind Although significant progress has been made posi0ve change has limited reach. Millions of people con0nue to be le_ behind from mainsteam progress - especially the young, the poor and those who are disadvantaged
  36. 36. EducaOon RevoluOon Broader access to improved educa0on acts as a major catalyst for empowerment, sustained economic growth, overcoming inequality and reducing conflict. We need an educa0on system fit for the digital revolu0on.
  37. 37. Mass Engagement As the public voice becomes easier to access and harder to suppress, leaders seek to engage to create, develop, secure and maintain legi0macy for their ini0a0ves and policies – so further reducing their hierarchical power.
  38. 38. Off-Grid People living off-grid, by inequality or choice, can exacerbate societal division or improve privacy, health and wellbeing. Either way, doing so provides fer0le ground for innova0on.
  39. 39. Rising Youth Unemployment With unemployment rates over 50% in some na0ons, access to work is a rising barrier. Especially across North Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe, a lost genera0on of 100m young people fails to gain from global growth.
  40. 40. Shrinking Middle While the global middle class grows, in the West increasing inequality for some drives a rela0ve decline in middle-income popula0ons. Coupled with the erosion of secure jobs, the US in par0cular sees a steadily shrinking middle.
  41. 41. Our Habitat
  42. 42. AcceleraOng Displacement Climate change, conflict, resource shortages, inequality and poli0cal elites unable or unwilling to bring about necessary change all trigger unprecedented migra0on to the North. Over the next 50 years, as many as 1 billion people could be on the move.
  43. 43. Basic SanitaOon Poor sanita0on con0nues to impact public health and restrict social progress, par0cularly for women. Governments and donor organisa0ons priori0se measurement, educa0on and innova0on in a bid to drive change.
  44. 44. Built-in Flexibility The path to a connected, accessible and distributed infrastructure is fraught with complex, costly and risky issues: Upgrading and repurposing systems to make them more open plus on-going maintenance need significant resources.
  45. 45. CiOzen-Centric CiOes Successful ci0es will be designed around the needs and desires of increasingly empowered and enabled ci0zens - who are expec0ng personalized services from the organisa0ons that serve them.
  46. 46. Flooded CiOes The vast majority of our ci0es are not prepared for flooding. Many districts and households can no longer get flood insurance and are in jeopardy. It’s going to get worse before it gets beIer.
  47. 47. Infrastructure Deficit Infrastructure again becomes a source of compe00ve advantage. Emerging economies invest in new railroads and highways for more effec0ve movement of people and goods, while developed na0ons suffer from poor legacy.
  48. 48. Nature’s Capital In the Anthropocene, humankind is presiding over the Earth's sixth major ex0nc0on. But as biodiversity declines, nature becomes increasingly valued and valuable.
  49. 49. PlasOc Oceans There are increasing high levels of man-made pollu0on in many of the world’s seas and liIle actually disappears. By 2050 there will be more plas0c than fish in the world’s oceans.
  50. 50. SomeOmes Nomads Elec0ve migra0on, cheap travel, interna0onal knowledge sharing and increasingly transient working models create connected nomads who mix the tradi0ons of home with the values and customs of their host loca0on.
  51. 51. Beliefs and Belonging
  52. 52. Agelessness A person’s physical age becomes less important as society adapts to the new demographic landscape. New opportuni0es arise for creators and consumers of all ages, though benefits are o_en only for the wealthy.
  53. 53. Care in the Community The desire to ‘age-in-place’ meets a healthcare reform agenda that promotes decentraliza0on. A new care model is customer-centric, caregiver-focused and enhances coordina0on across care sehngs.
  54. 54. Female Choice Dilemma Women in richer economies have greater choice, and with it increased control and influence. This con0nues to drive change and decision-making but globally the baIle for female equality has a long road to travel.
  55. 55. Human Touch As service provision and consump0on becomes ever more digital, automated and algorithmic, those brands that can offer more emo0onal engagement and human-to-human contact become increasingly aIrac0ve.
  56. 56. Keeping The Faith As people move they take their beliefs with them. For many, religion is one of the few remaining aspects of their previous life, key to their iden0ty - stronger than the ci0zenship of their adopted country or the na0on they le_ behind.
  57. 57. Working Longer People are having to work for longer to support longer re0rements. Flexible working prac0ces and policies are emerging, but some employers con0nue to remain ambivalent about older workers.
  58. 58. Power and Influence
  59. 59. Africa Growth With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt the scale of the African con0nent and its resources. However, un0l recently, only some have seen it as the growth market that it is fast becoming.
  60. 60. Companies with Purpose As trust in ‘business’ declines, structures and prac0ces of large corpora0ons are under scru0ny. Businesses come under greater pressure to improve performance on environmental, social and governance issues.
  61. 61. Declining Government Influence Na0onal governments’ ability to lead change comes under greater pressure from both above and below - mul0na0onal organisa0ons increasingly set the rules while ci0zens trust and support local and network based ac0ons.
  62. 62. Eco-CivilisaOon Over the past 40 years China has grown apace, mostly without concern for long-term environmental impacts. However, now faced with major challenges, a bright light of sustainable development is emerging.
  63. 63. Rise of Nimby Globalisa0on of trade and travel, with geopoli0cal shi_s from North to South and from West to East, have delivered many benefits for some - but are causing clashes of cultures and a perspec0ve of poli0cal retrenchment for others.
  64. 64. Rise of the Cult of China As China’s economic influence on the world increases there is a rise in the cult of China in popular imagina0ons elsewhere. Myths of both hope and fear will proliferate as China’s cultural influence increases.
  65. 65. Standards Driving Trade Interna0onal regula0on is progressively aimed at freeing up trade and making it simpler and less bureaucra0c – but there are a number of agreements, standards and protocols that some are seeing as increasingly constraining.
  66. 66. SOll Being Stupid Despite a beIer understanding of the long-term challenges we face, we individually and collec0vely con0nue to make decisions that may make sense in the short-term - but do not lead to beIer longer-term consequences.
  67. 67. Changing Business
  68. 68. CreaOve Economy The crea0ve economy helps to build inclusive and sustainable cultures. What’s more, it generates wealth. To build scale it requires a workforce comfortable with collabora0on, cri0cal thinking and the ability to take a risk.
  69. 69. Currencies of Meaning New trusted currencies of exchange and meaning emerge to facilitate transac0ons, trade, authen0ca0on and valida0on. Money is complemented by new systems to which we aIach greater significance.
  70. 70. Digital Money Cash con0nues to be gradually replaced by digital money, providing consumers with more convenience and choice – and organisa0ons with lower cost transac0ons. Wider adop0on enables new offers to proliferate.
  71. 71. Dynamic Pricing The algorithms of Amazon and Uber cross over to affect more businesses, from energy use to parking. Real-0me transparency allows beIer purchasing at the same 0me as margins and yields are automa0cally enhanced.
  72. 72. Full Cost Increasing transparency of society’s reliance on nature, intensify requirements for business to pay the true cost of the resources provided by ‘natural capital’ and so compensate for their nega0ve impact on society.
  73. 73. OpOmising Last Mile Delivery Seamless, integrated and shared last-mile delivery replaces inefficient compe00on and duplica0on of goods distribu0on. Greater efficiency in moving things is as important as in moving people and so a major focus for innova0on.
  74. 74. OrganisaOon 3.0 New forms of flaIer, project-based, collabora0ve, virtual, informal organisa0ons dominate - enabled by technology and a mobile workforce. As such the nature of work and the role of the organisa0on blurs.
  75. 75. Skills ConcentraOons The need to build and develop capabili0es becomes increasingly challenging for companies and workers alike. Those who benefit from the high-skill reward opportuni0es remain a select group who move ahead of the urban pack.
  76. 76. Speed to Scale Greater global connec0vity, growing consumer wealth and broader reach all combine to accelerate the 0me to 1bn customers and a $10bn valua0on for start-ups and new corporate ventures alike.
  77. 77. The Real Sharing Economy Increasing collabora0on drives organisa0ons to reconfigure based on social networks and impact. Real sharing enterprises, not driven by profits, seek to share resources, knowledge, and decision-making responsibili0es.
  78. 78. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org

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