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Future Agenda - The World in 2025 - EFMD - Rome 09 03 15


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A keynote talk on the World in 2025 for EFMD in Rome and the 2015 EFMD MBA Conference. The event is themes 'Redesigning the MBA' and is aimed at MBA Directors and business school staff involved in part-time, full-time and executive MBA programmes. This talk draws on insights from both the first Future Agenda programme in 2010 and futureagenda2.0 now underway and shares some key shifts people see taking place in the world over the next decade.

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Future Agenda - The World in 2025 - EFMD - Rome 09 03 15

  1. 1. EFMD  |  Rome  |  9  March  2015   Future  Agenda  2.0  |  The  World  in  2025  
  2. 2. Looking  Forwards   OrganisaAons  increasingly  want  to  idenAfy  and  understand    both  the  anAcipated  and  unexpected  changes     so  that  they  can  be  beHer  prepared  for  the  future.  
  3. 3. Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program     that  accesses  mulAple  views  of  the  next  decade     so  all  can  be  beHer  informed  and  sAmulate  innovaAon.  
  4. 4. FA  1.0  Top  Insights  for  2020   From  the  2010  program,  52  key  insights  on  the  next  decade     were  shared  widely  via  books,  cards  and  online  and  have  been    extensively  used  by  organisaAons  around  the  world.  
  5. 5. Dynamic  Pricing   Pervasive  smart  meters  and  ubiquitous  tracking  services     create  plaOorms  for  the  dynamic  pricing  of     resources,  access  and  travel  to  manage  demand.  
  6. 6. Global  Pandemics   We  are  likely  to  see  2  to  3  major  pandemics  start  in     regions  with  limited  public  healthcare  and  rapidly     spread  globally  and  so  demand  fast  response.  
  7. 7. Cocktail  IdenDDes   The  need  to  differenAate  between  real  and  virtual    disappears  -­‐  who  you  are  ceases  to  use  a  singular  idenAty     as  we  manage  mulAple  idenAty  porOolios.  
  8. 8. Intelligent  Highways   Mesh  networks  and  ubiquitous  mobile  connecAons     deliver  automated  highways  to  improve  safety,     increase  capacity  and  reduce  congesAon.  
  9. 9. Water  Management     Advanced  water  purificaAon,  irrigaAon  and  desalinaAon     technologies  are  used  to  help  communiAes  to   manage  the  rising  supply  /  demand  imbalance.  
  10. 10. Mega  City  States   Increasing  compeAAon  between  ciAes  over-­‐rides  naAonal     prioriAes  as  mayors  lead  bold  iniAaAves  to  place  their     ciAes  at  the  forefront  of  the  global  stage.  
  11. 11. Future  Agenda  2.0  Topics   The  second  version  of  the  Future  Agenda  program  is  taking  place     during  2015  and  will  address  20+  topics  via  100  events  in    50  countries  with  around  20  to  25  core  hosts.   Ageing   CiDes   Company   ConnecDvity   Data   EducaDon   Energy   Food   Government   Health   Learning   Loyalty   Payments   Privacy   Resources   Transport   Travel   Water   Wealth   Work  
  12. 12. The  Process   20  iniAal  perspecAves  on  the  future  kicked  off  the  Future  Agenda     discussions  taking  place  across  5  conAnents  from  Feb  to  July  2015.     These  are  iniAal  views  to  be  shared,  challenged  and  enhanced.     IniAal   PerspecAves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  13. 13. Working  Longer    For  those  who  have  inadequate  reArement  savings,  the  most  obvious     soluAon  is  to  work  longer.  One  major  potenAal  barrier,  however,     is  that  employers  remain  ambivalent  about  older  workers.    
  14. 14. FloaDng  CiDes?   Climate  change  poses  a  worrying  challenge  for  ciAes.  50%  of  ciAes  are  dealing   with  its  effects,  and  nearly  all  are  at  risk.  Over  90%  of  all  urban  areas  are   coastal,  pu_ng  most  ciAes  on  earth  at  risk  of  flooding.    
  15. 15. Less  Carbon  -­‐  More  Energy   The  climate  change  debate  is  serious  but  needs  to  be  broader;     focused  not  solely  on  reducing  CO2  emissions,  but  on  developing     a  low  carbon,  high-­‐energy  future  to  ensure  prosperity  for  all.    
  16. 16. Reducing  Food  Waste   Postharvest  losses  of  plant  foods  can  be  substanAal  in  developing  countries   and  amount  to  30-­‐50%  of  producAon.  In  developed  countries  we  throw  away  a   similar  proporAon.  The  combined  loss  would  feed  about  3  billion  people.  
  17. 17. Wider  Impact  of  Frugal  InnovaDon   The  approach  to  healthcare  challenges  developed  in  India  has  delivered  proven   design  soluAons  for  low-­‐income  populaAons.  Applying  the  principles  to  higher   income  economies  has  the  potenAal  to  deliver  even  greater  efficiency  benefits.  
  18. 18. Value  of  Data   There  is  undoubtedly  a  huge  economic  incenAve  to  generate  and  collect  data   from  whatever  sources  it  becomes  available.  As  more  data  from  more  things   becomes  available,  we  can  expect  to  see  a  data  “land  grab”  by  organisaAons.    
  19. 19. Transport  and  Society   Transport  systems  need  to  contribute  to  supporAng  and  improving     society  rather  than  only  serving  it  and  risking  unintended,     unanAcipated  and  unwelcome  consequences.  
  20. 20. Real  Cost  of  Water    Users  are  likely  to  have  to  pay  for  the  real  cost  of  infrastructure.  One  short-­‐ term  opAon  is  the  financial  recycling  of  assets  and  capital.  However,  in  the   longer-­‐term  we  will  have  to  pay  the  true  value  for  key  resources.  
  21. 21. Self-­‐Organised  Learning   By  removing  adult  restricAons  on  educaAon  and  providing  children     with  Internet  access  and  on-­‐line  support  and  encouragement,     children  are  able  to  self-­‐organise  and  learn.  
  22. 22. Post  Modern  Workplaces   We  are  on  the  cusp  of  a  transiAon  to  a  world  where  half  the  populaAons     of  Europe  and  the  United  States  subscribe  to  post-­‐modern  values  of     autonomy  and  diversity.  The  workplace  will  not  escape  this  trend.    
  23. 23. Inequality  On  The  Agenda   Inequality  has  become  a  concern  not  just  for  developing  countries  but  also  for   those  in  the  US  and  the  Euro  Zone:  56%  of  people  living  in  rich  countries   believe  the  most  pressing  problem  of  the  economy  is  inequality.  
  24. 24. Get  Involved   Join  in  the  global  discussion:  ParAcipate  in  /  host  workshops  and     share  your  views  online.  Add  alternaAve  perspecAves  into  the  mix     to  create  a  deeper,  richer  and  global  view  of  the  World  in  2025