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Africa 4.0 13 10 17 - draft

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In October, we are sharing views on the much debated topic of Africa 4.0 - exploring the opportunities, challenges, implications and also some key questions for the future. This is the first draft for this talk and is being shared both so you can use but hopefully also so you can provide feedback - on what you agree with, what you disagree with and maybe what you think is missing. We will then collate, curate and share back an enhanced version of this - again for all to use as suits under creative commons.

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Africa 4.0 13 10 17 - draft

  1. 1. Africa 4.0 Opportuni*es for Africa from Industry 4.0? Cape Town | 13 October 2017 The world’s leading open foresight program
  2. 2. Context – Africa 4.0 With the rapid evolu*on of digital opportuni*es, there is growing expecta*on that Industry 4.0 could have a drama*c impact on Africa. Will it? Can it help shiJ Africa from leapfrogging to leading? Where are the biggest opportuni*es?
  3. 3. Overview This talk looks at some of the key Industry 4.0 changes that are emerging. It asks where and how they may impact Africa in the future and what are some of the key challenges and opportuni*es that lie ahead. Africa 4.0 Implica*ons Ques*ons Future Africa Challenges Opportuni*es Industry 4.0 The Promise Example Impacts
  4. 4. Foresight vs. Insight
  5. 5. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program. Run as a global dialogue across all con*nents, it accesses mul*ple views of the next decade so we can all be beQer informed and so s*mulate innova*on.
  6. 6. Industry 4.0
  7. 7. Manufacturing’s Next Act Smart factories feature decentralized systems that collaborate with each other with excep*onal levels of produc*vity and quality. Component manufacture, assembly, tes*ng and packaging are all more flexible, faster, cheaper and more effec*ve.
  8. 8. Automa?on Beyond the Factory Outside the Smart Factory, many are preparing for a world in which the Internet of Things, AI, machine learning and autonomous vehicles, all operate within an increasingly connected world – where data and digital infrastructures dominate.
  9. 9. Everything Connected Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul*ple networks: everything that can benefit from a connec*on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effec*vely but are concerned about the security of informa*on flow.
  10. 10. Real Time Analy?cs Pervasive data sharing combines with real *me analysis and machine learning to provide all par*es with diagnos*cs and predica*on on vehicle safety, op*mal scheduling of trains, and maintenance and self-repair of equipment.
  11. 11. Machine Learning Taking Control With the rise of AI and autonomous compu*ng, machine learning is increasingly put in control of managing our energy systems – quickly realizing efficiency savings of around 50% in some sectors.
  12. 12. Digital Money Cash con*nues to be gradually replaced by digital money, providing consumers with more convenience and choice – and organisa*ons with lower cost transac*ons. Wider adop*on enables new offers to proliferate.
  13. 13. Data Ownership Individuals recognize the value of their digital shadows, privacy agents curate clients’ data sets while personal data stores give us transparent control of our informa*on: We retain more ownership of our data and opt to share it.
  14. 14. Building Data Marketplaces Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything that is informa*on is represented in a new data marketplace.
  15. 15. Growing Cyber Terrorism Digital manufacturing and transport systems become increasingly popular targets for hackers and cyber terrorists. Pervasive connec*vity and weak security provide evermore open back doors for sustained denial of service.
  16. 16. Future Africa
  17. 17. Africa Growth With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt the scale of Africa and its resources. However, un*l recently, only some have seen the poten*al in the growth markets that some SSA na*ons are fast becoming.
  18. 18. Equitable Economic Growth Some of the world’s fastest growing economies are to be found in Africa – but so also are many of the na*ons with the fastest growing popula*ons. Ensuring that the economic growth benefits all is seen as a challenge for many.
  19. 19. Impacts of Climate Change As the world warms by between 2oC and 4oC, Africa is expected to warm up to 1.5 *mes faster that the average. Key implica*ons include flooding in Dar es Salaam and Lagos, severe droughts, lower food yields and the migra*on of ten of millions north.
  20. 20. Modernizing Long Distance Networks Transporta*on costs add 50% to 75% in Rwanda, Malawi and Uganda. Upgrading interna*onal roads and a revival of rail is a high priority but the payback for China in funding much of this raises many ques*ons.
  21. 21. Digital Connec?vity in Africa Across different African na*ons, the current levels of digital connec*vity varies significantly. SSA accounts for 1/10 of global mobile subscribers and is expected to grow faster that every other region over the next five years. Smartphone Penetra*on (GSMA 2017) 3G/4G Network Coverage Mobile Penetra?on <50% 50-75% >75% South Africa 100% 50% 50% 25% 0% Nigeria Sudan AFRICA GLOBAL ECOWAS ECCAS EAC SADC Tanzania
  22. 22. Leapfrogging to Leaders Some African economies do more than catch up. As with mobile telecoms, they are adop*ng new energy systems early, leapfrogging the West with some rapidly also becoming leaders in low-cost services to a growing middle class.
  23. 23. Kenya Already Leading Due to the success of m-Pesa, Kenya is widely recognized as a leading hub for mobile payments. Moving ahead, with increased investment and interest from the likes of Facebook, Nairobi may well become one of the world’s most innova*ve ci*es.
  24. 24. Africa 4.0
  25. 25. Op?mized Solar Incorpora*ng AI algorithms into the management of solar supply and demand networks can significantly improve efficiency of energy consump*on via localized smart grids - where everyone is an energy producer and consumer.
  26. 26. Op?mising Last Mile Delivery Seamless, integrated and shared last-mile delivery replaces inefficient compe**on and duplica*on of goods distribu*on. Greater efficiency in moving things is as important as in moving people and so a major focus for innova*on.
  27. 27. Financial Inclusion Improving access to, as well as trust in, new banking plamorms is expected to significantly enhance financial inclusion. From a regulatory perspec*ve, DRC is already seen as one of the most proac*ve na*ons in the world for mobile payments.
  28. 28. Fric?onless Currency Transfer To improve trade flows enhancing interna*onal remiQance payments is a major focus. Using a combina*on of mobile and bitcoin, more are looking to avoid high bank charges as new digital forex exchanges are emerging fast across the con*nent.
  29. 29. Smart Government Many are hoping that greater ICT access and broadband adop*on will improve government efficiency and transparency. With the private sector as a priority, the Smart Africa Manifesto has been endorsed by most and partnerships are in mo*on.
  30. 30. Digital Iden??es As mul*-factor biometrics and widespread fingerprint driven iden*ty verifica*on takes hold, authen*ca*on and engagement of the wider popula*on increases. As in India, digital iden**es may well open the door to the mainstream.
  31. 31. The Rise of Machines The growth in the intelligence and capabili*es of machines presents both a threat and an opportunity: Greater AI and automa*on will free up *me, but also threaten jobs: Already short of 1m engineers, bridging the digital skills gap is an Africa priority.
  32. 32. Healthcare Efficiency With greater levels of mobile health, remote support is extending reach, reducing costs and improving healthcare efficiency. Africa and India are both seen as leaders for start-ups partnering with networks to improve compliance, stock and affordability.
  33. 33. Drone Delivery With early success of pilots in Rwanda, the delivery of blood products and vaccines by drone is being supported as a major change agent for public health. Add in greater automa*on and naviga*on and the impact scales significantly.
  34. 34. Agricultural Produc?vity With increasing access to real *me analy*cs and data visualisa*on, more farmers are able to beQer align irriga*on and fer*lizer use and so improve yields. In Ghana and Cameroon shared data is reducing price asymmetry and lowering payment costs.
  35. 35. Land Administra?on Few African farmers currently have rights over the land they work. Adop*ng a digital approach, such as block-chain, to assign and manage rights may be transforma*onal – unlocking ‘dark capital’ can significantly improve yields and investment.
  36. 36. Risk Mi?ga?on Across a con*nent of many na*ons, managing risk is an increasing focus. BeQer regional integra*on is seen as a core component as is wider adop*on of digital iden**es for payments, social security and ci*zenship.
  37. 37. Deeper Collabora?on Partnerships shiJ to become more dynamic, long-term, democra*sed, mul*-party collabora*ons. Compe*tor alliances and wider public par*cipa*on drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathe*c collabora*on.
  38. 38. Five Ques?ons for Africa 4.0
  39. 39. System Efficiency What levels of impact from Africa 4.0 can be expected in key areas of the economy? Which are most open to change, which have the greatest poten*al for change and which have the ability to drive the change most effec*vely?
  40. 40. Disrup?on Poten?al As more entrepreneurs become connected and enabled to innovate, what sectors will be those most open to major disrup*on and reinven*on and which will nurture start-ups able to have significant impact on the global stage?
  41. 41. Sharing the Benefits As the influence of Africa 4.0 spreads and improves efficiency and impact, further economic growth will follow. How will the benefits be shared more equitably across the whole of society and not just between the leadership?
  42. 42. China’s Extending Influence China is already Africa’s biggest trading partner and is behind much of the new infrastructure investments. How will na*ons best manage this rela*onship in the digital world and prevent it from being the 21st century version of coloniza*on?
  43. 43. Government Collabora?on Data does not recognize na*onal boundaries. It flows wherever it is wanted. How can African governments and industries improve collabora*on on Africa 4.0 to enable the poten*al of digitaliza*on being discussed to best be realized?
  44. 44. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org

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