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Framtidens affärsmodeller
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Handelskammardagen Borås 23 oktober 2013

Martin Börjesson
Director Foresight to Insight
Knowit Business Growth AB

martin.borjesson@knowit.se
www.knowit.se
+46 704 262891
@futuramb
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1959...
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Cemex 1995...
···············································································································

Guadalajara
···············································································································

Affärsmodellen - det som utmanas när nya aktörer träder in
och konkurrerar på nya främmande sätt

···············································································································
Bilindustri
Car2Go

IT/Telekom

Media
Dagstidningar
Gartner: 102B App Store nedladdningar
globalt under 2013, försäljning för $26
miljarder, 17% från In-App köp

Musikbranschen
Tesla
Bokförlag

Mobiltelefoner
···············································································································

Ett företag är en verksamhet som bryggar olika logiker
···············································································································

Marknadslogik
Affärslogik
Företag

Tekniklogik
···············································································································

Affärsmodellstänkande - en designapproach i en komplex värld
···············································································································
Värderingsförändringar

you
Do-it-

Mobilite

rself

Upplevelser

Marknadslogik

?

t

Affärslogik

r
uto
val

se
rin
g

Fle
r

ali
git

ering
igitalis
D

Di

Tekniklogik
···············································································································

Exempel: Business Model Canvas - Alexander Osterwalder
···············································································································
···············································································································

Vad affärsmodellerna signalerar inför framtiden
···············································································································
• Förståelse i typer - kategorier
• En skalmodell man kan studera närmare
• Recept - beskrivning hur man gör
• Hypoteser för hur man skulle kunna göra

Explosion av nya
affärsmodeller

för att tjäna pengar

inn

eb
ä

r

Kreativitet

Experimenterande Branschutmaningar
Evolution
Samhällsutmaningar
Forskning Design
Ekonomiska förändringar
Lärande
Sociala förändringar
Teknikutveckling
···············································································································

Allt mer komplexa samband knyts ihop i allt fler affärsmodeller
···············································································································
Ökande komplexitet
Internet
Upplevelser
Moderna
Mobilitet
människan
Individualisering
Innovation
JIT Stad Data
Nätverk

Enkla relationer
Fabriken

Big Data
4B

Open source
Affär

Hem &
familj

Lågkostnadsmodellen
Social nätverksförsäljning
Pyramid

Annonseringen betalar
Premium
Bricks-and-mortar
1950

Service-av-produkt

Hyvel-och-blad
Direktförsäljning

Postorder
Auktion

Kina
Individen++

Evig beta
Gamification

Prenumeration

Freemium

Bricks-and-clicks

Ta bort mellanleden

Crowdfunding
P2P

DIY

Crowdsourcing
Nätverkseffekt
2000

Livsstilskapning
2013

Valutaexplosion

Begränsade
resurser
Osäkerhet
Kunskapsexplosion
...
···············································································································

Framväxande affärsmodellstyp: P2P - plattform - crowd
···············································································································

Blocket: 2012 annonserades varor ut för
313 miljarder SEK ≈ 9% av Sveriges BNP

Kickstarter:
Sedan 2009 har 5 miljoner människor
äskat $830 miljoner och ca 50,000
kreativa projekt har finansierats

AirBnB: >10 miljoner bokade nätter över hela världen

App Store: 102 miljarder nedladdningar
globalt under 2013, försäljning för
$26 miljarder, 17% från In-App köp
···············································································································

Framväxande affärsmodellstyp: Open X - DIY - Collaboration
(Open source, Open Spec, Open Content, Open Data, Open Innovation…)

···············································································································

•
LEGO: utnyttjar den osynliga demografin av kreativa
individer som utvecklar nya idéer för LEGO

•
•

Kinesiska motorcykelindustrin:
Växte från ca 3 miljoner enheter 1993 till >26 miljoner
2011 (= >50% av världens produktion - trots förbudet
mot motorcyklar i städer)
Har >130 motorcykelmärken
Självorganiserande system - baserat på öppna gränssnitt
···············································································································

Tack!
···············································································································

Martin Börjesson
Director Foresight to Insight
Knowit Business Growth AB

martin.borjesson@knowit.se
www.knowit.se
+46 704 262891
@futuramb

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Framtidens affärsmodeller - Handelskammardagen i Borås 23 oktober 2013