1. Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales
41 rue du Four – 75006 Paris - France
www.iddri.org
WHAT FOR PARIS
Teresa Ribera, Director, IDDRI
teresa.ribera@iddri.org

2. Key message 1: Paris Agreement needs to include
strengthening mechanisms to build bridge from INDCs to
staying below 2°C
Teresa Ribera - IDDRI
• INDCs are significant deviation from
current trends and policies
• But not sufficient to keep below 2°C in
reach as freely emitting fossil fuel
infrastructure is not reduced until 2030
• Mechanisms for rapid strengthening
can send signal of commitment to long
tem goal to investors.
• Early restructuring of investments can
shave additional 5 GtCO2eq off
trajectory in 2030 and reduce the risk
of disruptive, rapid, costly change
• The Paris Agreement must establish
this early and regular ratchet
Greenhouse gas emissions
80 GtCO2eq/yr
0
20
40
60

INDC−extended
INDC−2°C
Bridge
Immediate−2°C
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: REMIND model calculations, EDGAR (JRC/PBL, historical emissions),
PBL INDC Tool calculations (www.pbl.nl/indc INDC range and best estimate,
vertical black line and circle) and IPCC AR5 scenario database
Source: MILES project, IDDRI

3. Key message 2: INDCs imply rapid growth of
renewable electricity technologies
Teresa Ribera - IDDRI
Source: MILES project, IDDRI
• Deployment trajectory for renewable electricity technologies is approaching the 2C
trajectory, thanks to many support policies in INDCs
• This implies a very significant growth from current levels (black bars)

4. Key message 3: INDCs leave too much fossil fuel
capacity in 2030
Teresa Ribera - IDDRI
• INDCs lead to an absolute
decline in global coal demand
by 2030 compared to current
levels (black horizontal line)
• However, the level of
installed unabated fossil fuel
capacity, notably coal, is still
ca. 50% higher in the INDC
scenario than in the 2C
scenario
• This implies real risks of lock
in into high emitting
infrastructure
Source: MILES project, IDDRI

5. Key message 4: INDCs imply a significant
improvement in energy efficiency
Teresa Ribera - IDDRI
- A significant reduction in energy demand compared to ‘reference
scenario’
- Particular progress in EU, Japan, China
Source: MILES project, IDDRI

6. Key message 5: increasing levels of climate finance
are flowing
Teresa Ribera - IDDRI
• Ca. 350 billion USD of climate
finance annually
• Up to 57 billion USD north south
climate finance
• However still significant
divergences of view on ‘what
can count’.
• Also, we need to combine a
‘transformational’ and
‘solidarity’ perspective.
• The objective of financial policy
must be transformational shifts
in financial flows
Source: OECD and CPI, 2015

7. Key message 6: Adaptation as a key element of
iNDCs
Teresa Ribera - IDDRI
Source: UNFCCC, 2015
• One hundred Parties
included an adaptation
component in their INDCs
• The information provided
clearly demonstrates that
Parties are moving to
fullscale planning and
implementation of
adaptation and
strengthening and scaling up
existing efforts. Most Parties
referred to developing
nationwide adaptation plans
and strategies

8. Key message 6: the importance of cycles
• A system for regular review and updating of ambition is crucial
• It can create accountability, dynamism and learning
• A 5 year review and updating system would create a combination of dynamic and
credibility
Teresa Ribera - IDDRI

9. Conclusions
• INDCs will strengthen and consolidate action on climate change in major
economies.
• INDCs imply massive growth of renewable electricity technologies, close
to what is required for 2C. INDCs do not go far enough on other crucial
levers: phasing out fossil fuel, developing CCS and alternative transport,
driving forward smart urbanisation
• INDCs are not coherent with a low-risk, low-cost approach to the 2C
target, but they can and must be strengthened over time. Cycles and
acceleration as key factors for success.
• Decarbonisation pathways; resilience building and coherent finance
signals still to be strengthen.
Teresa Ribera - IDDRI