World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model


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World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

  1. 1. Natural Foresight Creating An Organic System for Organizational Futures Thinking and Action
  2. 2. Yvette Montero Salvatico, Partner/Principal Holding a bachelor’s degree in Finance and an MBA from the University of Florida, Yvette has over 15 years of corporate experience with large, multi- national firms such as Kimberly-Clark and The Walt Disney Company. Before becoming a partner at Kedge, she lead the effort to establish Future Workforce Insights at the Walt Disney Company, identifying future workforce trends and leveraging foresight models and techniques to assess potential threats and impacts, emerging ideas, and exciting opportunities for the organization. Yvette is an experienced speaker, addressing large audiences on topics such as business policy, diversity, and foresight. Frank Spencer, Partner/Principal Prior to founding Kedge, Frank worked for 15 years as a leadership coach and developer with entrepreneurs, social communities, networking initiatives and SMEs, helping them to advance human development, local and global innovation, and open-source collaboration. He holds a Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight from Regent University, and is a member of the World Futures Studies Federation. With a strong background in both business and academic foresight, Frank developed a course on futures and foresight for the Duke TIP Institutes; has worked on foresight projects for companies such as Kraft, Mars, Marriott, and The Walt Disney Company; and is a prolific speaker on foresight and innovation. Kedge is a minority-owned foresight, innovation, creativity, and strategic design consultancy. We help our clients to thrive in a world of complex ideas and practices, uncover emerging trends on the horizon that will impact their business, and discover unseen opportunities for strategic advantage and development. @ymsalvatico @frankspencer
  3. 3. Why do so many foresight efforts FAIL?
  4. 4. Kedge, LLC
  5. 5. We have entered the… Postnormal Economy
  6. 6. They have a risk management charter. Why do so many foresight efforts FAIL?
  7. 7. Failure is feedback. Risk and Resiliency The only way to grow stronger, wealthier, and more resilient in the long run is to expose ourselves to more risk and volatility today.
  8. 8. A KEDGE is a smaller anchor on a sailing vessel that plays a big role. Dropping the kedge a great distance from the ship, the crew pulls themselves toward their desired destination. Likewise, companies can continually pull themselves toward preferred futures & new opportunities using Kedge’s Natural Foresight System.
  9. 9. Natural Foresight allows companies to kedge themselves past the outdated models of survival & sustainability – and even beyond resilience – helping them to create an environment of transformation across their organization.
  10. 10. Why do so many foresight efforts FAIL? They leverage mechanical approaches.
  11. 11. Today’s complex environment is driven by more than technology.
  12. 12. Steps are great…as long as they get you somewhere.
  13. 13. A better (more organic) approach mimics natural growth.
  14. 14. Leveraging Natural Growth Curves for Transformation
  15. 15. Why do so many foresight efforts FAIL? They stop at the tip of the iceberg.
  16. 16. So what are we missing?
  17. 17. So what are we missing?
  18. 18. Identifying trends has very little value. Build Patterns Trends must be interpreted so that we can…
  19. 19.   
  20. 20. Why do so many foresight efforts FAIL? They operate as closed systems, in isolation from the rest of the organization.
  21. 21. Many organizations treat foresight efforts like an app… when it should be their operating system.
  22. 22. Insulated Foresight Divisions ignore external perspectives and exist only to provide “Executive Entertainment” -- information that reinforces what leadership believes or desires to be true -- rather than useful insights about the future.
  23. 23. Sequestering foresight efforts in just one part of the organization ignores the importance of culture development and results in an environment that itself creates a roadblock to successful change processes.
  24. 24. Culture cannot be copied, benchmarked, or googled but it can be developed.
  25. 25. Strategic foresight is a discipline but is actually best served as an integrated philosophy. Organizations that intentionally develop a futures culture are primed for market-leading innovation, successful opportunity development, and revenue-generating futures intelligence.
  26. 26. Natural Foresight is much more than a set of tools or steps. It’s an entire Ecosystem, a way of thinking & acting within organizations that leads to ongoing aspirational success.
  27. 27. Why do so many foresight efforts FAIL? They focus too much on the future.
  28. 28. In today’s business environment, a quarterly deadline will always take precedence over thinking about the future. Foresight divisions lose support, funding, and headcount because leadership struggles to see the connection between the future and today.
  29. 29. A new vision requires a new measurement. The Long Now
  30. 30. Thinking about the future has little value if it is not tied to action.
  31. 31. Natural Foresight
  32. 32. • Fosters a natural growth cycle in organizational development, product development, etc. • Generates an adaptive, resilient & transformational environment. • Develops a “Long Now” mindset in the organization. Natural Foresight . . .
  33. 33. • Addresses our environment of accelerating complexity. • Allows you to utilize the system “where you are.” Natural Foresight . . . • Helps create an organic culture in the organization. • Presents a holistic & integrated system where each quadrant reinforces the others.
  34. 34. • Covers the entire system needed to build a successful foresight competency within an organization. Natural Foresight . . . • Addresses the needs & vision of an organization “head on.” • Allows for intuitive understanding & learning of foresight thinking & practice
  35. 35. Natural Foresight Creating An Organic System for Organizational Futures Thinking and Action