Food Secure Arab World: Enhancing Crop and Livestock Productivity through Science and Technology International Conference on Food Secure Arab World: A Road Map for Policy and Research IFPRI-ESCWA, Beirut Lebanon, 6-7 February 2012 Mahmoud El Solh, Ph.D. Director General International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)CGIAR
Outline Challenges facing enhancing food security in Arab countries/dry areas; Sources of increase in food production; Applications of science and technology to enhancing crop and livestock productivity towards Food Security; Looking Ahead: CGIAR Research Program for Integrated and Sustainable Production Systems for Improved Food Security and Livelihoods in Dry Areas (CRP1.1); Conclusion.
Challenges Facing Food Security in the Arab World
Arab World: Dryland Fragile Eco-systems Physical water scarcity m -10 Decrease of the Souss Rapid natural -20 aquifer level in Morocco resource -30 degradation and -40 desertification -50 Groundwater -60 depletion -70 -80 Drought 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Salinity Climate change
Implications of Climate Change- Changes in precipitation and drought;- Extreme temperatures;- Changes in climatic zones;- Shorter growing season;- Emerging diseases and insect pests.
Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs(compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)
Climate change affects not only food production ...... it affects all four dimensions of food security Availability Loss in food production Direct natural resource degradation & More abiotic and biotic Stresses Access Infrastructure damage, asset losses Loss of income and employment opportunities Stability Increased livelihood risks, pressure on food prices Higher dependency on food imports and food aid Increased variability in abiotic and biotic stresses Source: FAO Policy Learning Programme Utilization Human health risks, nutrition Module 2: Specific Policy Issues – Climate Change Session 2.1
Further Challenges to Food Security in the Developing Countries Inadequate agricultural policies for sustainable agricultural development Insufficient investment in agricultural research and development
Politically volatile region:Importance of economic and political stability
The Food Insecurity Trap Interrelationships between key challenges in the Arab World Land degradation, water scarcity, loss of biodiversity Climate Change: Desperation leads to Drought, heat, over-exploitation of natural resources salinity Food Insecurity: poverty, hunger and malnutrition Insufficient Population growth institutional support Lack of employment opportunities Lack of Improved Migration technologies Socio-political upheavalsCGIAR
Dependency on food imports in the Arab World * (Cereal Exports – Imports) / Food available for human consumption (kcal)
The Arab Region is the largest grain importer (2010 million metric tons) Global TradeNet cereal imports (in million MT), by region, 2010 Former Soviet Union +16.1 +91.2 +17.5 -58.8 North America Europe -65.8 Asia -18.0 Arab +6.3 Countries Ocenia Latin America and Sub-Saharan +18.6 the Caribbian Africa + Net Exports - Net Imports Sources: adapted from USDA 2011
Arab Countries with High Cereal Import Dependency and Large Fiscal Deficits are Most Vulnerable at the Macro Level(2007 Fiscal Balances—percentage of GDP, 2005 Cereal Balances —metric) tons)* Source: Authors. Adapted from FAO, 2008b; IMF, 2008; World Bank, 2008b. Note: Cereal import dependency is measured by net cereal imports/total cereal consumption. * 2007 fiscal balances were drawn from the IMF. The most recent FAOSTAT data on cereal balances is for 2005.
Food Insecurity in Developing Regions of the World Cereals imports of developing regions 1970-2030 Historical Development Projections 240 East Asia South Asia 190 million tonnes Near East/North Africa Latin America 140 S.S.Africa 90 40 -10 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 Source: FAO, 2002 World Agriculture: towards 2015/30, http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/gstudies.htm
Implications of the Food Crisis in the Arab World: Countries moving from self-reliance to self sufficiency
Pathways towards Food Security in the Arab World Resilient production systems Sustainable use of Coping with natural resources: Climate Change Enhancing WUE Implications Food Security & Better Livelihoods Improved Human resource technologies development Better employment Diversification opportunities Pro-poor policy and and access to markets institutional options Peace and social stability
Sources of increase in food production Agriculture intensification Increase 70 % in arable land 10% 20% Cropping intensity
Country TopologyTo increase food security in the developing world, twoparameters are used to explore the trade off betweenproduction intensification and the potential for landexpansion of rainfed cultivated area at the country level(Fischer and Shah, 2010) 1. Yield gap: the amount that actual yields, from either irrigated or rainfed areas, fall short of potential yields under optimum management; 2. Relative Land Availability: ratio of non-forested, non- cultivated suitable land area for rainfed production relative to what is actually cultivated.
Country Classification on based on Yield Gap and the Potential for Land Cultivation (Fischer and Shah, 2010) Type 1: Little land available for expansion, low yield gap Type 2: Suitable land available for expansion, low yield gap Type 3: Little land available for expansion, high yield gap Type 4: Suitable land available for expansion, high yield gap.
Yield Gaps and Relative Land Availability for Different Countries of the WorldType 1 :Little land available forexpansion, low yieldgapType 2Suitable land availablefor expansion, lowyield gapType 3Little land availablefor expansion, highyield gapType 4Suitable land availablefor expansion, highyield gap
Potential availability of land for rainfed cultivation in different regions (1000 ha)
Bridging Yield Gap: Sustainable Agricultural Intensification Agricultural intensification would bridge the yield gap and is very important in all developing countries to enhance food Security. However, it is a serious threat to the environment and natural resources (biodiversity, water, land, and soil) unless it is practiced in a sustainable manner particularly in dry areas…….. Thus, to bridge the yield gap the trend should and will be towards .…. Sustainable Agricultural Intensification of Production Systems and consequently towards Agricultural Modernization
Major Yield Gap Issues Efficiency of Technology Transfer Use of recommended: Sowing date, seed rate, fertilizer amount, rotation, use of proper farm machinery, disease and pest management practices Proper targeting of Varieties / Production zones Timely Availability of Inputs Quality Seed Fertilizers Water Government intervention and Policies: (Inputs and Marketing issues)
Bridging Yield Gap: S & T and Agricultural Modernization Science –based technological change is the key force for causing agriculture to undergo a transition from traditional to modernizing condition to enhance Food Security; We can not feed the Arab World with traditional agriculture; However, the challenge in the dry areas in general and the Arab world in particular is how to produce more with less and adopt/adapt advances in science and technology.
Major Intervention Areas to Bridge Yield Gap,Enhancing Water and Agricultural Productivity towards Food Security Natural resource Crop & livestock management and genetic improvement inputs Integration at farm and field levels Socio-economic & policy, and institutional support
ICARDA’s Experience in the Application of S & Tin Enhancing Food Security Under Water Scarcity
Enhancing Food Security in the Arab World Through Crop Genetic Improvement
ICARDA Gene Bank Holdings (up to 2010)Crop AccessionsBarley 24,975Wheat 34,227Wild cereals 7,671Food legumes 33,313Wild Food legumes 857Forage legumes 28,469Forage and range spp. 5,744Total 135,256Mostly landraces and unique set of wild relatives
Crop Improvement: Varieties Released using ICARDA Germplasm Worldwide, 1977 to 2010 1977 - 2010 Last 2 years Developing Industrialized AllCrop Countries Countries CountriesBarley 175 31 6Durum Wheat 102 14 1Bread Wheat 224 6 9Chickpea 108 31 9Faba Bean 51 6 1Lentil 96 16 9Forages 30 2 2Peas 9 0 0Sub-Total 761 120Total 881 37 NET ESTIMATED BENEFIT = about US $850 m / year
Varieties Released High yield potential Agronomic traits: e.g. earliness, canopy architecture Tolerance to abiotic stresses: - Drought - Heat - Cold - Salinity Resistance/tolerance to biotic stresses - Diseases - Insect pests - Parasitic weeds
Distribution of cereal and food & forage legume Varieties Released international nurseries and germplasm
Example of the role of S & T in enhancing food security: Synthetic wheat, tolerance to excessive drought Parent Variety Yield % recurrent t/ha parent Cham 6*2/SW2 1.6 147 Cham 6*2/SW2 1.5 138 Cham-6 1.10 100 Attila-7 1.3 -Yield of “synthetic derivatives” compared to parentsunder drought stress. (Tel Hadya 2008 -- 211 mm)
Yields (kg/ha) of promising durum wheat genotypes under rainfed (RF) and supplemental irrigation (SI)12000 Mean (kg/ha) 11 t/ha Max(kg/ha)100008000 6/t/ha6000 3.7t/ha40002000 0 Rf (321 mm) Rf+SI (321+70 mm) RF (321 mm) RF+SI (321+70 mm) RF+SI (524+70mm) Fvrbl+SI (524+70 mm) RF = Rainfed; SI = Supplemental Irrigation
Wheat in Syria: Achieving Self Sufficiency 9 9 Area Needed Actual Area . Actual Production Precipitation Linear (Area Trend) Linear (Production Trend) 8 8 7 7 Production (million tons)Precipitation (mm) /100Wheat area (million ha) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0
Project Example: Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries Increasing the Productivity of Wheat-Based Production System Goal Contribute to achieving food security and agricultural sector growth in the Arab Countries under the challenging scenarios of: Climate change Global economic crisis (food prices) Increasing population
Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries Project (cont’d) Project Financing Scheme: Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD): US$ 2,000,000 Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED): US$ 2,000,000 Islamic Development Bank (IDB): US$ 1000,000 OPEC Fund International Development (OFID): US$ 150,000 Countries involved: (At this stage) Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Syria, Sudan, Tunisia. Algeria and Iraq (through OFID grant) Other Arab Countries can be added at later stages (Yemen…) Duration of Phase: Three years: 2011- 2013
Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries Project (cont’d) Integration among different disciplines and partners Scientists/Researchers Farmers’ participation (planning, field days, farmers fields schools) Extensions Staff Policy Makers
Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries: Egypt, 2010 - 2011 seasonAverage grain yield (ton/ha) of improved wheat cultivars in and out of demonstration plots Average of 91 farmers’ demonstrations in Sharkia governorate: Wheat productivity increase on the average: 1.20 t/ha or 18% with 25% saving in water consumption No. Cultivar Grain Yield (ton/ha) Increase In Out of ton/ha % demonstration demonstration 1 Sids 12 8.83 -- -- -- 2 Misr 2 8.71 -- -- -- 3 Misr 1 8.57 -- -- -- 4 Sakha 94 8.00 6.70 1.30 19.4 5 Gemmiza 9 7.98 6.98 1.00 14.3 6 Giza 168 7.87 6.67 1.20 18.0 7 Sakha 93 7.54 6.25 1.29 20.6 8 Gemmiza 10 -- 5.75 -- -- Mean 8.21 6.47 1.20 18.1
Large scale demonstration fields in irrigated conditions: at Kairouan, Tunisia, 2010-2011 Average grain yield (q/ha) of improved wheat cultivars 20% to 40% increase over farmers’ varieties Yield (tons/ha) 5.95 6.39 5.84 4.57
Large scale Wheat Demonstrations at El Bab, Syria 2010-2011Effect of improved wheat varieties and supplemental irrigation on grain yieldin El Bab, Syria: 10-20% in rainfed areas; 15-40 % in irrigated areas Rainfed (220 mm of rain) Variety Productivity (kg/ha) Increase over check Bohouth 4 1024 11% Cham 6 1128 22% Mean 1076 local check (Cham 8) 920 Rainfed (170 mm of rain) + one supplemental irrigation Variety Productivity (kg/ha) Increase over check Bohouth 4 1644 16% Cham 6 2005 41% Mean 1824 local check (Cham 8) 1420
New Winter Sowing Technology to boost Chickpea Yield in West Asia & North Africa Winter sown Traditional Spring sown
Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries through Plant protection & Integrated Pest Management (IPM)
Resistance/Tolerance to Hessian Fly in Wheat: An Outcome of Morocco/ICARDA Collaboration Hessian Fly Resistant VarietyHessian fly causes economic damage inNorth Africa and North Kazakhstan Resistance lines
Breeding for Disease Resistance:Heavy yellow rust infestation in West Asia in 2010 50
Yellow Rust Resistance in Wheat Susceptible Resistant Susceptible Ready for multi-location testing and fast-trackseed multiplication for distribution to affected countries
Enhancing Food Security in the Arab World Improving Crop Productivity
Water Research: Scales and drivers to conserve and optimize water productivity At the basin level: Competition among uses (Environ., Agric., Domestic.) Conflicts between countries Equity issues At the national level: Food security Reduce imports Socio-politics At the farm level: Maximizing economic return Nutrition in subsistence farming At the field level: Maximizing WUE, productivity & income
Benchmark Sites for Integrated Water & Land ManagementSupported by AFESD, IFAD and OFID
Implementation in Three Agro-Ecologies Rainfed Areas Irrigated Areas Marginal Lands
Research Outputs & Technologies in Water ManagementEnhancing Crop productivity through better Water Management: Changing Irrigation Systems (including pressured system) and Modifying Cropping Patterns; Supplemental Irrigation (Systems and management); Macro- and Micro-Water Catchments (Vallerani and other types); Deficit Irrigation as a water management strategy for the water scarce areas; Broad-bed planting system Watershed management.
Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries Integrated Crop/Rangelands/Livestock Production Systems in Marginal Lands