Music 9 - 4th quarter - Vocal Music of the Romantic Period.pptx
Session 2 mahmoud_solh_v2
1. Food Secure Arab World: Enhancing Crop and Livestock
Productivity through Science and Technology
International Conference on Food Secure Arab World:
A Road Map for Policy and Research
IFPRI-ESCWA, Beirut Lebanon, 6-7 February 2012
Mahmoud El Solh, Ph.D.
Director General
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)
CGIAR
2. Outline
Challenges facing enhancing food
security in Arab countries/dry areas;
Sources of increase in food production;
Applications of science and technology
to enhancing crop and livestock
productivity towards Food Security;
Looking Ahead: CGIAR Research
Program for Integrated and Sustainable
Production Systems for Improved Food
Security and Livelihoods in Dry Areas
(CRP1.1);
Conclusion.
4. Arab World: Dryland Fragile Eco-systems
Physical water
scarcity m
-10
Decrease of the Souss
Rapid natural -20 aquifer level in Morocco
resource -30
degradation and -40
desertification -50
Groundwater -60
depletion -70
-80
Drought 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Salinity
Climate change
5. Implications of Climate Change
- Changes in precipitation and drought;
- Extreme temperatures;
- Changes in climatic zones;
- Shorter growing season;
- Emerging diseases and insect pests.
6. Relative change of mean annual precipitation
1980/1999 to 2080/2099
Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs
(compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)
7. Climate change affects not only food production ...
... it affects all four dimensions of food security
Availability Loss in food production
Direct natural resource degradation &
More abiotic and biotic Stresses
Access Infrastructure damage, asset losses
Loss of income and employment opportunities
Stability Increased livelihood risks, pressure on food prices
Higher dependency on food imports and food aid
Increased variability in abiotic and biotic stresses
Source: FAO Policy Learning Programme
Utilization Human health risks, nutrition Module 2: Specific Policy Issues –
Climate Change Session 2.1
8. Further Challenges to Food Security
in the Developing Countries
Inadequate agricultural policies for
sustainable agricultural development
Insufficient investment in agricultural
research and development
10. The Food Insecurity Trap
Interrelationships between key challenges in the Arab World
Land degradation,
water scarcity, loss of
biodiversity
Climate Change:
Desperation leads to Drought, heat,
over-exploitation of
natural resources
salinity
Food Insecurity:
poverty, hunger
and malnutrition Insufficient
Population growth institutional support
Lack of employment
opportunities Lack of Improved
Migration technologies
Socio-political upheavals
CGIAR
11. Dependency on food imports in the Arab World
* (Cereal Exports – Imports) / Food available for human consumption (kcal)
12. The Arab Region is the largest grain importer
(2010 million metric tons)
Global Trade
Net cereal imports (in million MT),
by region, 2010
Former Soviet
Union
+16.1
+91.2
+17.5 -58.8
North America Europe
-65.8 Asia
-18.0 Arab
+6.3 Countries Ocenia
Latin America and Sub-Saharan +18.6
the Caribbian Africa
+ Net Exports
- Net Imports
Sources: adapted from USDA 2011
13. Arab Countries with High Cereal Import Dependency and Large
Fiscal Deficits are Most Vulnerable at the Macro Level
(2007 Fiscal Balances—percentage of GDP, 2005 Cereal Balances —metric) tons)*
Source: Authors. Adapted from FAO, 2008b; IMF, 2008; World Bank, 2008b.
Note: Cereal import dependency is measured by net cereal imports/total cereal consumption.
* 2007 fiscal balances were drawn from the IMF. The most recent FAOSTAT data on cereal balances is for 2005.
14. Food Insecurity in Developing Regions of the World
Cereals imports of developing regions
1970-2030
Historical Development Projections
240
East Asia
South Asia
190
million tonnes
Near East/North Africa
Latin America
140
S.S.Africa
90
40
-10
1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030
Source: FAO, 2002 World Agriculture: towards 2015/30, http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/gstudies.htm
15. Implications of the Food Crisis in the Arab World:
Countries moving from self-reliance to self sufficiency
16. Pathways towards Food Security in the Arab World
Resilient production
systems
Sustainable use of Coping with
natural resources: Climate Change
Enhancing WUE Implications
Food
Security & Better
Livelihoods Improved
Human resource
technologies
development
Better employment
Diversification opportunities Pro-poor policy and
and access to
markets institutional options
Peace and social stability
17. Sources of increase in food production
Agriculture
intensification
Increase
70 % in arable land
10%
20%
Cropping
intensity
18. Country Topology
To increase food security in the developing world, two
parameters are used to explore the trade off between
production intensification and the potential for land
expansion of rainfed cultivated area at the country level
(Fischer and Shah, 2010)
1. Yield gap: the amount that actual yields, from either
irrigated or rainfed areas, fall short of potential yields
under optimum management;
2. Relative Land Availability: ratio of non-forested, non-
cultivated suitable land area for rainfed production
relative to what is actually cultivated.
19. Country Classification on based on Yield Gap and the
Potential for Land Cultivation (Fischer and Shah, 2010)
Type 1:
Little land available for expansion, low yield gap
Type 2:
Suitable land available for expansion, low yield gap
Type 3:
Little land available for expansion, high yield gap
Type 4:
Suitable land available for expansion, high yield gap.
20. Yield Gaps and Relative Land Availability for
Different Countries of the World
Type 1 :
Little land available for
expansion, low yield
gap
Type 2
Suitable land available
for expansion, low
yield gap
Type 3
Little land available
for expansion, high
yield gap
Type 4
Suitable land available
for expansion, high
yield gap
22. Bridging Yield Gap:
Sustainable Agricultural Intensification
Agricultural intensification would bridge the yield gap and
is very important in all developing countries to enhance food
Security.
However, it is a serious threat to the environment and
natural resources (biodiversity, water, land, and soil) unless it
is practiced in a sustainable manner particularly in dry
areas……..
Thus, to bridge the yield gap the trend should and will be
towards .….
Sustainable Agricultural Intensification of Production Systems
and consequently towards
Agricultural Modernization
23. Major Yield Gap Issues
Efficiency of Technology Transfer
Use of recommended: Sowing date, seed rate, fertilizer
amount, rotation, use of proper farm machinery, disease
and pest management practices
Proper targeting of Varieties / Production zones
Timely Availability of Inputs
Quality Seed
Fertilizers
Water
Government intervention and Policies: (Inputs and
Marketing issues)
24. Bridging Yield Gap:
S & T and Agricultural Modernization
Science –based technological change is the key
force for causing agriculture to undergo a
transition from traditional to modernizing
condition to enhance Food Security;
We can not feed the Arab World with traditional
agriculture;
However, the challenge in the dry areas in
general and the Arab world in particular is how
to produce more with less and adopt/adapt
advances in science and technology.
25. Major Intervention Areas to Bridge Yield Gap,
Enhancing Water and Agricultural Productivity
towards Food Security
Natural resource Crop & livestock
management and genetic improvement
inputs
Integration at farm
and field levels
Socio-economic & policy,
and institutional support
26. ICARDA’s Experience in the Application of S & T
in Enhancing Food Security Under Water Scarcity
28. ICARDA’s Research Programs
Biodiversity and Crop Integrated Water
Genetic Improvement and Land
Management
Sustainable
Intensification Social, Economic
of Production and Policy Research
Systems
35. Crop Improvement: Varieties Released using
ICARDA Germplasm Worldwide, 1977 to 2010
1977 - 2010 Last 2 years
Developing Industrialized All
Crop Countries Countries Countries
Barley 175 31 6
Durum Wheat 102 14 1
Bread Wheat 224 6 9
Chickpea 108 31 9
Faba Bean 51 6 1
Lentil 96 16 9
Forages 30 2 2
Peas 9 0 0
Sub-Total 761 120
Total 881 37
NET ESTIMATED BENEFIT = about US $850 m / year
36. Varieties Released
High yield potential
Agronomic traits: e.g. earliness, canopy architecture
Tolerance to abiotic stresses:
- Drought
- Heat
- Cold
- Salinity
Resistance/tolerance to biotic stresses
- Diseases
- Insect pests
- Parasitic weeds
37. Distribution of cereal and food & forage legume
Varieties Released
international nurseries and germplasm
38. Example of the role of S & T in enhancing food security:
Synthetic wheat, tolerance to excessive drought
Parent Variety Yield % recurrent
t/ha parent
Cham 6*2/SW2 1.6 147
Cham 6*2/SW2 1.5 138
Cham-6 1.10 100
Attila-7 1.3 -
Yield of “synthetic derivatives” compared to parents
under drought stress. (Tel Hadya 2008 -- 211 mm)
39. Yields (kg/ha) of promising durum wheat genotypes under
rainfed (RF) and supplemental irrigation (SI)
12000
Mean (kg/ha) 11 t/ha
Max(kg/ha)
10000
8000
6/t/ha
6000
3.7t/ha
4000
2000
0
Rf (321 mm) Rf+SI (321+70 mm)
RF (321 mm) RF+SI (321+70 mm) RF+SI (524+70mm)
Fvrbl+SI (524+70
mm)
RF = Rainfed; SI = Supplemental Irrigation
40. Wheat in Syria: Achieving Self Sufficiency
9 9
Area Needed Actual Area . Actual Production
Precipitation Linear (Area Trend) Linear (Production Trend)
8 8
7 7
Production (million tons)
Precipitation (mm) /100
Wheat area (million ha)
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
41. Project Example: Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries
Increasing the Productivity of Wheat-Based Production System
Goal
Contribute to achieving food security
and agricultural sector growth in the
Arab Countries under the challenging
scenarios of:
Climate change
Global economic crisis (food prices)
Increasing population
42. Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries Project (cont’d)
Project Financing Scheme:
Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD): US$ 2,000,000
Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED): US$ 2,000,000
Islamic Development Bank (IDB): US$ 1000,000
OPEC Fund International Development (OFID): US$ 150,000
Countries involved: (At this stage)
Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Syria, Sudan, Tunisia.
Algeria and Iraq (through OFID grant)
Other Arab Countries can be added at later stages (Yemen…)
Duration of Phase:
Three years: 2011- 2013
43. Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries Project (cont’d)
Integration among different
disciplines and partners
Scientists/Researchers
Farmers’ participation
(planning, field days, farmers
fields schools)
Extensions Staff
Policy Makers
44. Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries:
Egypt, 2010 - 2011 season
Average grain yield (ton/ha) of improved wheat cultivars in and out of demonstration plots
Average of 91 farmers’ demonstrations in Sharkia governorate:
Wheat productivity increase on the average: 1.20 t/ha or 18%
with 25% saving in water consumption
No. Cultivar Grain Yield (ton/ha) Increase
In Out of ton/ha %
demonstration demonstration
1 Sids 12 8.83 -- -- --
2 Misr 2 8.71 -- -- --
3 Misr 1 8.57 -- -- --
4 Sakha 94 8.00 6.70 1.30 19.4
5 Gemmiza 9 7.98 6.98 1.00 14.3
6 Giza 168 7.87 6.67 1.20 18.0
7 Sakha 93 7.54 6.25 1.29 20.6
8 Gemmiza 10 -- 5.75 -- --
Mean 8.21 6.47 1.20 18.1
45. Large scale demonstration fields in irrigated conditions:
at Kairouan, Tunisia, 2010-2011
Average grain yield (q/ha) of improved wheat cultivars
20% to 40% increase over farmers’ varieties
Yield (tons/ha)
5.95 6.39
5.84
4.57
46. Large scale Wheat Demonstrations at El Bab,
Syria 2010-2011
Effect of improved wheat varieties and supplemental irrigation on grain yield
in El Bab, Syria: 10-20% in rainfed areas; 15-40 % in irrigated areas
Rainfed (220 mm of rain)
Variety Productivity (kg/ha) Increase over check
Bohouth 4 1024 11%
Cham 6 1128 22%
Mean 1076
local check (Cham 8) 920
Rainfed (170 mm of rain) + one supplemental irrigation
Variety Productivity (kg/ha) Increase over check
Bohouth 4 1644 16%
Cham 6 2005 41%
Mean 1824
local check (Cham 8) 1420
47. New Winter Sowing Technology to boost Chickpea
Yield in West Asia & North Africa
Winter sown Traditional Spring sown
48. Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries
through Plant protection &
Integrated Pest Management (IPM)
49. Resistance/Tolerance to Hessian Fly in Wheat:
An Outcome of Morocco/ICARDA Collaboration
Hessian Fly Resistant
Variety
Hessian fly causes economic damage in
North Africa and North Kazakhstan
Resistance lines
50. Breeding for Disease Resistance:
Heavy yellow rust infestation in West Asia in 2010
50
51. Yellow Rust Resistance in Wheat
Susceptible Resistant Susceptible
Ready for multi-location testing and fast-track
seed multiplication for distribution to affected countries
53. Water Research: Scales and drivers
to conserve and optimize water productivity
At the basin level:
Competition among uses (Environ.,
Agric., Domestic.)
Conflicts between countries
Equity issues
At the national level:
Food security
Reduce imports
Socio-politics
At the farm level:
Maximizing economic return
Nutrition in subsistence farming
At the field level:
Maximizing WUE, productivity &
income
54. Benchmark Sites for
Integrated Water & Land Management
Supported by AFESD,
IFAD and OFID
56. Research Outputs & Technologies in Water
Management
Enhancing Crop productivity through better Water Management:
Changing Irrigation Systems (including pressured system) and
Modifying Cropping Patterns;
Supplemental Irrigation (Systems and management);
Macro- and Micro-Water Catchments (Vallerani and other types);
Deficit Irrigation as a water management strategy for the water scarce
areas;
Broad-bed planting system
Watershed management.
57. Enhancing Food Security in Arab Countries
Integrated Crop/Rangelands/Livestock
Production Systems in Marginal Lands
