Carsten Beck - Future Forum 2013

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Carsten Beck - Future Forum 2013

  1. 1. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning New ways of learning – new ways of working Italy November 2013 CIFS, Carsten Beck
  2. 2. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning CIFS • Founded by Thorkil Kristensen i 1970 • Private non-profit organisation • Member based: – 50 companies in Europe • Interdisciplinary think tank (economic and political science, ethnology, sociology, philosophy) • 15 academic employees • Danish, Norwegian and Belgian Futures Club • IKEA, ASDA, Delhaize, Coop, Siemens, Statoil, Pictet, Wal Mart, EU, Governments and regional authorities
  3. 3. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Why do we need to look for new ways of learning and working? •Sense of urgency in Europe •Success is difficult •More changes happening •New technologies and attitudes challenges leaders and institutions
  4. 4. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Why the future? We all face much tougher competition in the future Global companies 1991-2001 And in 2001-2011 8% in ”Top 25%” 25% best performing companies 17% 25% 50% in ”Bottom 25%” Source: HBR: The law of averages jan-feb 2013 NB TSR=Total shareholder return
  5. 5. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
  6. 6. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning You can t ask people about radical innovation regarding their worklife ”If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made a faster horse” Henry Ford
  7. 7. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Increasing Wealth Individualization Commercialization Globalization Health & Wellness Immaterialism Global Warming (Environmental Challenges) Change conditions: Families MEGATRENDS Employees Drivers for Change Business Society Digitalization IT society Network organization Population development Acclerating Pace of change (Aging) 24-hour society Knowledge society
  8. 8. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Macroperspectives
  9. 9. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Very heterogeneous picture of competitiveness in Europe http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/6th_report/rci_2013_report_final.pdf
  10. 10. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Reshoring to Europe Experiences from german companies: 1. Flexibility 2. Quality 3. Cost of coordinating global value chains 4. Infrastructure 5. Lack of competence and talents Workforce: 1. 2. 3. 4. More automatization and hence more complex work tasks More agile More focus on learning Solving the knowledge transfer problem
  11. 11. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Source: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
  12. 12. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
  13. 13. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Individual perspectives
  14. 14. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The empowered generation
  15. 15. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Digitalisation
  16. 16. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Social Media has grown faster than any other Media technology McKinsey:Turning Buzz into Gold, May 2012
  17. 17. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Constant Everyday Use – A Global Trend Percentage of smartphone non-voice usage: Global 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% In bed Early Commuting Late During Early Late Early During Late In bed morning morning lunch afternoon afternoon evening dinner evening Ericsson ConsumerLab Analytical Platform 2012 Base: Android/iPhone smartphone users in 57 countries
  18. 18. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Real time • Impatience • Response: here and now • No bad excuses • The Boss= The person or network that makes the fastest decisions "Twitter has done a great job of real-time search. I think we’ve done a relatively poor job of... things that work on a per-second basis. I’ve been telling our search teams for some time, you need results for every second. They laugh at me. I don’t think they understand this. I think we will do a better job of some of these things now". Source: Larry Page (Google founder) in Wired Magazine
  19. 19. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
  20. 20. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Education and business perspectives
  21. 21. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Individualized learning
  22. 22. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Pitfalls • Virtual academies with shady reputations • Can digital learning environments grade and appreciate imagination and creativity? • Student data: Privacy issues • Role of teachers – teacher/student relations might be more superficial? Based on Diane Ravitch. New York University
  23. 23. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
  24. 24. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
  25. 25. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
  26. 26. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning MIT Future of Learning program study 1. Self-learning 2. Horizontal structures 3. From presumed authority to collective credibility 4. De-centered pedagogy 5. Networked learning 6. Open source education 7. Learning as connectivity and interactivity 8. Lifelong learning 9. Learning institutions are mobilizing networks 10.Flexible scalability and simulation
  27. 27. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The educational institutions • Universities focusing more on developing talent that have skills that are actually needed in the market – Focus on the needs of the private sector – STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) – More in depth integration of theory and real life • Schools working together with companies on internal training programs
  28. 28. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
  29. 29. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The next step in HR
  30. 30. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Kilde: BCG
  31. 31. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The Big Five Five trends that will transform your future workforce. 1. Generation Y and Z – 2. Migration from East Europe (and West) Social capital and networks – Long term trend: more responsibility is delegated 3. Global mobility and value chains 4. Technological paradigm changes – 5. Social media and screens Co-creation – Companies in the future will ask all their employees to be customer focused and innvative
  32. 32. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The big excuse ”We are to busy right now to care about the future!” Solution: Ambidexterity “Organizational ambidexterity refers to an organization’s ability to be efficient in its management of today’s business and also adaptable for coping with tomorrow’s changing demand. Just as being ambidextrous means being able to use both the left and right hand equally, organizational ambidexterity requires the organizations to use both exploration and exploitation techniques to be successful.”
  33. 33. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Recommendations to companies • More focus on competence development – Clear and future oriented talentmanagementstrategy – More entry level jobs – ”Free 1” – ”Company universities” – Cooperation with other companies inside or outside your sector • ”Teach-able fit” approach – hire employees with competences that are not a perfect fit today but will be a perfect future fit. Requires capability to learn! • Job security – but adjustable. Lower working hours and pay – if required • Compensation and benefits should be OK • ”Talent on demand”: how can you get acces to competences outside your company? And on a flexible basis?
  34. 34. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Workshop
  35. 35. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Constant Everyday Use – A Global Trend Percentage of smartphone non-voice usage: Global 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% In bed Early Commuting Late During Early Late Early During Late In bed morning morning lunch afternoon afternoon evening dinner evening Ericsson ConsumerLab Analytical Platform 2012 Base: Android/iPhone smartphone users in 57 countries
  36. 36. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Generation Y and Z • Generation Y, “The Millennials”: Born ca. 1980-1995 • Generation Z, “The iGeneration”: Born ca. 1995-present
  37. 37. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The social media generation
  38. 38. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The global generation
  39. 39. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The creative generation
  40. 40. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The Herostratic generation
  41. 41. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The spoiled generation?
  42. 42. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The anarchist generation
  43. 43. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Generation Y: The power generation?
  44. 44. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Interactivity
  45. 45. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Integration with internet data
  46. 46. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Distance learning
  47. 47. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
  48. 48. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Flip homework / schoolwork
  49. 49. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Individualized learning
  50. 50. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Gamification
  51. 51. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Recognize non-standard experience
  52. 52. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The power of self-learning www.tinyurl.dk/38509
  53. 53. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning “We left the boxes in the village. Closed. Taped shut. No instruction, no human being. I thought, the kids will play with the boxes! Within four minutes, one kid not only opened the box, but found the on/off switch. He'd never seen an on/off switch. He powered it up. Within five days, they were using 47 apps per child per day. Within two weeks, they were singing ABC songs [in English] in the village. And within five months, they had hacked Android. Some idiot in our organization or in the Media Lab had disabled the camera! And they figured out it had a camera, and they hacked Android.”
  54. 54. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Privacy • The Good: – ”Individualized solutions” • The Bad: – ”IKEA knows to much about me” • The Evil: – ”Theft of identities” Getty Images
  55. 55. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Anarconomy How people interact with IKEA
  56. 56. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Networks
  57. 57. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning MIT Future of Learning program study 1. Self-learning 2. Horizontal structures 3. From presumed authority to collective credibility 4. De-centered pedagogy 5. Networked learning 6. Open source education 7. Learning as connectivity and interactivity 8. Lifelong learning 9. Learning institutions are mobilizing networks 10.Flexible scalability and simulation
  58. 58. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The educational institutions • Universities focusing more on developing talent that have skills that are actually needed in the market – Focus on the needs of the private sector – STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) – More in depth integration of theory and real life • Schools working together with companies on internal training programs
  59. 59. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Pitfalls • Virtual academies with shady reputations • Can digital learnings environments grade and appreciate imagination and creativity? • Student data: privacy issues • Role of teachers – teacher/student relations might be more superficial? Based on Diane Ravitch. New York University
  60. 60. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Major challenge • Digitalization of educational systems has huge potential. But what are the challenges? – – – – Attitudes and values? Technological infrastructure? Internal conflicts in organisations? Little interest in the future and future digital solutions? – Economy? – Silos?
  61. 61. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Major challenge • New generations will have new ways of working. How will managers and organiszations cope with this? – – – – Powerdistance Collaboration Values and beliefs Individualization – Bring Your Own Device
  62. 62. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Major challenge • The balance between the physical and digital learning environment. CIFS believes in an in-line-educational system. How will this affect the organisations of schools and universities?

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