P justino microcon conference 2011


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Synthesis and reflections

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  • P justino microcon conference 2011

    1. 1. A Micro-Level Analysis of Violent Conflict Synthesis and Reflections Patricia Justino Director, MICROCON IDS, 30 June 2011 www.microconflict.eu Twitter: @microconflict #microconflict
    2. 2. Key lessons <ul><li>Ordinary people matter </li></ul><ul><ul><li>People are more than victims: the importance of agency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>People build resilience in the face of conflict </li></ul></ul><ul><li>It is about understanding the conflict </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Length and structure of conflict </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nature of violence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Institutional change </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Agency and resilience shape conflict processes and outcomes </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><li>MICROCON </li></ul>
    4. 4. Main purpose <ul><li>Advance the field of conflict analysis through micro level approach </li></ul><ul><ul><li>understand individual and group interactions leading to and resulting from violent conflicts ( full conflict cycle ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>violent conflicts : systematic breakdown of the social contract resulting from and/or leading to changes in social norms, which involve mass violence instigated through collective action </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Better informed domestic, regional and international conflict policy – placing individuals and groups at the centre of interventions </li></ul>
    5. 5. MICROCON Consortium Rest of the World Canada: University of British Columbia South Africa: U niversity of Cape Town Colombia: Universidad de Los Andes India: Institute for Human Development Uganda: Makerere University Kyrgyzstan: Centre for Economic and Social Research United States: Tufts University Yale University Europe Belgium: Centre for European Policy Studies Université Catholique du Louvain Ghent University Free University of Brussels (VUB) Norway: Fafo Institute for Applied International Studies Bulgaria: I nternational Collaboration Institute Affiliated to the German Public Universities Association – Sofia Branch Portugal: University Nova of Lisboa France: University of Rouen Romania: Institute of Agricultural Economics Germany: German Institute for Economic Research United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security Spain: University of Alicante Italy: Institute of International Affairs UK: Institute of Development Studies Poverty Research Unit, Sussex University of Oxford The Netherlands: Institute of Social Studies
    6. 6. Evidence and data New Data Existing Data
    7. 7. Facts and motivations <ul><li>Until recently conflict and violence not mainstreamed in development policy </li></ul><ul><li>Concern with state security and state capacity </li></ul><ul><li>What about the people? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1.5 billion people affected by conflict and violence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One third of those living in extreme poverty </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Over 1/2 of all child mortality in the world </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Over 40% of all out of school children </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No conflict-affected country will achieve the MDGs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Limited knowledge and evidence of how people live in contexts of violent conflict </li></ul>
    8. 8. Knowledge gaps <ul><li> At a fundamental level, conflict originates from people’s behaviour and how they interact with society and their environment </li></ul><ul><li>Who are the people affected by violent conflict? </li></ul><ul><li>How do they live? </li></ul><ul><li>What do they do to secure lives and livelihoods? What options do they have? What choices do they make? </li></ul><ul><li>Why are they get affected by violence? In what way? How does violence change options and choices? </li></ul><ul><li>Are they part of the conflict? What led them into it? </li></ul>
    9. 9. <ul><li>What have we learned? </li></ul>
    10. 10. Framework
    11. 11. Ordinary people matter <ul><li>Important macro causes of violent conflict </li></ul><ul><ul><li>military, financial, technological, ideological beliefs, mobilisation capacity, strength of state presence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Processes of violent conflict also related to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>what happens to people during violent conflicts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>what people do in areas of violence – adapt to secure lives and livelihoods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> micro foundations of violent conflict </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Adaptation affects conflict <ul><li>Welfare effects : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Direct: killings, injuries, disability, assets, displacement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indirect: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>local institutions: markets, social relations, political institutions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>national economy: economic growth, distribution </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>But people adapt to survive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>take on available opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>adapt forms of livelihoods to survival needs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>join in informal exchange and employment markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>form social and political alliances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>negotiate with local actors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adaptation shapes and is shaped by conflict outcomes and processes </li></ul>
    13. 13. <ul><li>It is about understanding the conflict </li></ul>
    14. 14. The conflict <ul><ul><li>People’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences shape conflict processes on the ground </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Where to fight, with whom, for how long </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Conflict is not a shock </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lasts across generations and people adapt accordingly </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long-term legacies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Some negative; some positive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conflict alters people’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transformation and change; not short-term effects </li></ul>
    15. 15. The violence <ul><li>Contexts where conflict managed through violent means </li></ul><ul><li>People’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences enable (or constrain) strategic use of violence </li></ul><ul><li>Beyond destruction: violence used to force transformation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>some of it may create more certain and secure environments </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Interactions between types of violence: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>violent riots, organised crime, communal violence, domestic violence armed fighting </li></ul></ul>
    16. 16. Institutional transformation <ul><li>People resort to local institutions to protect economic status and lives </li></ul><ul><li>Policy focus on the importance of building institutions – but what institutions and how? </li></ul><ul><li>Focus still on solving violent conflict through peace agreements between selected leaders, followed by the panacea of DDR, SSR, elections </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What about the mechanisms that govern the effective implementation of these policies on the ground? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social interactions and local governance structures </li></ul></ul>
    17. 17. Social interactions <ul><li>Social norms of trust and cooperation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Development and peace-building focus on community-level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support new investments (physical and human capital) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DDR and reconstruction programmes? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Forms of social organisation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Management of property rights </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dispute resolution over land and common resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distribution of public goods and common resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulation of access to public goods, basic services and markets </li></ul></ul>
    18. 18. Local governance <ul><li>Close link between violent conflict and the absence of the state </li></ul><ul><li>Absence of state does not mean absence of governance – local order determined by who holds the gun </li></ul><ul><li>These institutions can be persistent and efficient – provision of basic sense of security </li></ul><ul><li>Long term process: no short answers to peace and state-building </li></ul><ul><ul><li>change behaviour, norms and organisations </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. <ul><li>From research to policy </li></ul>
    20. 20. How to improve conflict policy <ul><li>Defusing mechanisms : entry points to break long-term negative legacies and build on positive changes </li></ul><ul><li>This allows: </li></ul><ul><li>Development policies : incentives to halt use of violence as strategy to influence allocation of power </li></ul><ul><li>Institution building : what institutions and how? </li></ul>
    21. 21. Defusing mechanisms <ul><li>Key channels linking interventions and outcomes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exercise of agency in conflict settings (not always positive) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Structure of the conflict </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Close links between people and conflict processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Which entry points? </li></ul><ul><li>Development : focus on supporting resilience </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It is not enough to just look at the ‘poor’; vulnerable to violence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Violence and conflict as constant factors in people’s lives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vulnerability is everywhere; not just among those that we can see </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Institutions : engagement with new/emerging power structures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New development actors? From ordinary people to non-state armed actors </li></ul></ul>
    22. 22. Development policies <ul><li>Current international policy: (our) security as major goal; development aid as means to support stability </li></ul><ul><li>Beyond ‘hearts and minds’: (re)establish social contract (broken or contested, sometimes for good reasons) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It is about helping to provide opportunities and equality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Development should be priority in itself </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Security is priority for people but for whom, how and what the trade-offs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health, education and economic security beyond emergency aid </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If states does not provide then someone else will </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Not just aid: building structures and guaranteeing equitable access to them </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Humanitarian aid useful but limited to short-term intervention </li></ul></ul>
    23. 23. Building institutions <ul><li>Need to get institutions right: Which institutions? How? </li></ul><ul><li>More attention paid to the other side of the story – what do we do about the institutions that emerge from conflict? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Violence instrumental role beyond destruction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergence of social and political order </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Implications: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Explaining why conflict persists, mutates, and how peace may emerge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Survival and security of ordinary people </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Negotiate with, engage and understand complex distributions of power within populations in conflict-affected contexts </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. <ul><li>Looking ahead </li></ul>
    25. 25. Ongoing/Recent Conflicts Recent Revolts / Major Protests Recent Internal Conflicts / Uprisings Ongoing Internal Conflicts Intergroup Violence Drug Related / Gang Violence