Ebr Dec 2009

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Ebr Dec 2009

  1. 1. What is Vision?
  2. 2. What is Vision?
  3. 3. The Evolving American Vision
  4. 4. The Emerging American Vision
  5. 5. People Turning 65 in Year Thousands 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1996-2025 2010 2011 Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 People Turning 65 Annually 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
  6. 6. Growth in Households without Kids Household Type Share With Children 12% Without Children 88% Single-Person 34% Source: Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003).
  7. 7. Unemployment in Baton Rouge Aug 2009 9.6 % 8.1 % Source: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  8. 8. Approaching labor shortages 2.0 Annual change in US working age population Average annual job creation since WWII 1.5 (in millions) 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: TIP Strategies; US Bureau Labor Statistics; US Census Bureau
  9. 9. • In the Future, digital access will be synonymous with achievement A Digital Economy
  10. 10. Oil prices will become increasingly volatile
  11. 11. The future will not be like the past, nor the present
  12. 12. Demographic Shifts • Growth concentrated in 55+ ages and 15-34 – Different housing demand • These shifts will result in more multi family and mixed use growth.
  13. 13. Many Communities will compete to be great places to live & work Open Spaces and Parks
  14. 14. Trends Strong forces will put a premium on: 1. Energy efficient, sustainable communities 2. Places Attractive to Workforce 3. Effective Transportation 4. Great Livability 5. More Options for Travel, Housing Shopping, and Work
  15. 15. Zoning Source: City of Baton Rouge – Parish of East Baton Rouge Geographic Information Systems
  16. 16. Buildable Lands Source: City of Baton Rouge – Parish of East Baton Rouge Geographic Information Systems
  17. 17. Source: FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency)
  18. 18. Source: USGS (US Geological Survey)
  19. 19. Buildout with no Environmental Constraints Households Increase = 71,853 Employment Increase = 319,452
  20. 20. Buildout with Floodplains & Wetlands Constrained Households Increase = 43,888 Employment Increase = 107,386
  21. 21. Economic trends and forecasts
  22. 22. Income in Baton Rouge •East Baton Rouge  households are wealthier  than the State, though  slightly less prosperous  than the entire Baton  Rouge MSA. Source: Claritas Inc.
  23. 23. Income by Race Source: Claritas Inc.
  24. 24. Education by Race Source: U.S. American Community Survey 2008
  25. 25. Historic Employment Growth: Pre-2000 Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission
  26. 26. Historic employment growth 2001- 2008 Arts and entertain Manufacturing Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  27. 27. Employment forecast 2016 (regional) Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission
  28. 28. Employment share / region • 63-65% region’s employment is in East Baton Rouge Parish • The Parish accounts for half the new jobs in the region Number of Jobs Growth 2001 2008 01-08 Louisiana 1,864,538 1,885,531 20,993 Regional Labor Market 377,958 417,973 40,015 Percent of State 20% 22% East Baton Rouge 245,176 264,262 19,086 Percent of Region 65% 63% Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission
  29. 29. Crime Rate 18,000 16,000 United States Denver 14,000 East Baton Rouge 12,000 EBR/BR Combined 10,000 Fort Worth Portland 8,000 Houston 6,000 New Orleans Austin 4,000 Baton Rouge 2,000 Oakland Atlanta 0 1st Qtr
  30. 30. Population Forecast (2030) •The population of East  Baton Rouge Parish is  projected to decline by  0.14% annually between  2010 and 2030. •The population of the  Baton Rouge MSA is  projected to grow at nearly  1% per year over the same  time period. Source: State of Louisiana Population Projections, Medium Forecast
  31. 31. Historic population growth •East Baton Rouge Parish  and Louisiana grew more  slowly than the U.S., even  before Katrina. •The state experienced a  population decline of 6%  (250,000 people) in the  year following Katrina. •The Baton Rouge area, on  the other hand, grew by  nearly 5% (19,000 people)  in the year following  Katrina. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  32. 32. Cities that have grown since 2000 2000 2008 Change Austin 656,562 746,835 14% Boise 185,787 203,818 10% Oklahoma City 506,132 544,157 8% Denver 554,636 584,563 5% Source: US Census Bureau; 2006-08 ACS estimates
  33. 33. Cities that have declined 2000 2008 Change Detroit 951,270 808,398 -15% Cincinnati 331,285 299,577 -10% Buffalo 292,648 259,143 -11% Kansas City 441,545 435,825 -1% Des Moines 198,682 197,912 0% Source: US Census Bureau; 2006-08 ACS estimates
  34. 34. Traditional Planning Approach • Decide – through analysis and research • Educate – the public about the solution • Announce – the plan • Defend – the plan
  35. 35. Traditional Planning Approach • D • E • A • D
  36. 36. Improved Process VALUES (What do people want?) VISION (How will our City provide it?) STRATEGY (How do we implement?) PLAN FUND BUILD
  37. 37. Community Workshops 1 2 3
  38. 38. Two Scales – Parish and Neighborhood Parish Neighborhood
  39. 39. Workshop Game Pieces or “Chips”
  40. 40. What happens after the workshop? Each table’s plan is analyzed… ….and all notes and comments are recorded
  41. 41. GIS Analysis Each map was photographed, digitized, and entered into GIS
  42. 42. All Chips Placed University of Tulsa Zoo Downtown Airport Urban Main Street Transit Development I-244 Village Business Park Downtown Commercial Center Strip Center Light Industrial Refineries Urban Neighborhood Small Lot Subdivision Residential Subdivision Eastland Mall Area Large Lot Subdivision 41st and Memorial Peoria Skelly Drive
  43. 43. Scenario Choices Broad Outreach
  44. 44. Scenario Options A B C D
  45. 45. Scenarios are Crash Test Dummies
  46. 46. Scenario C Shown with the transportation network and existing surrounding plans Scenario C
  47. 47. Modeling the Scenarios Owner Renter Year 2000 350,000 300,000 43% 250,000 57% 200,000 150,000 Vision 2030 100,000 50,000 48% - 52% SF Det SF Att MF SF Det SF Att MF Year 2000 Vision 2030 Market Constraints Sustainability Development Program Urban Design Commercial Demand Housing Needs Land Use Scenario Tipping Point Development Transportation Analysis Roadway Impact Ridership
  48. 48. Prototype Buildings
  49. 49. Prototype Buildings Original Standards New Standards Prototypes Prototypes Apartment Cottage Home Single Family Home 5-8K Lot Townhome Single Family Home 8-15K Lot Live / Work Neighborhood Grocery (1 Story) Business Park Neighborhood Retail (1 Story) Mid-Rise Business Park Mixed Use Apartments & Retail (2 Story) Retail Mall Mixed Use Retail & Office (2 Story) Strip Commercial Mixed Use Retail & Office (3 Story) Heavy Industrial Mixed Use Residential & Retail (4 Story) Light Industrial High Density Condo or Apartments (5 Story) Office Retail (3 Story) Office Retail (5 Story) Office Retail (10 Story)
  50. 50. Financial Analysis and Modeling
  51. 51. Vetting the Prototypes Testing ideas in real world situations Site size: 360,000 Square Feet
  52. 52. Big-Box Retail Rehabilitation
  53. 53. How the Scenarios Compare
  54. 54. Daily Transit Ridership 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 A B C D a rio a rio a rio rio en en en e na Sc Sc Sc Sc
  55. 55. Housing Match (to income and preference) 250,000 Balanced 200,000 Housing Index Score 150,000 100,000 80 50,000 0 . . s. s. ily es es Re Re e FR il/R il/R hom am tS ta ta ory ory wn le F eL o Re Re -St - St To ng rg MU MU 8 3 ry Si La to ry to ry Sto t ory 2- 2-S 8-S 3-S Scenario B (Units) SV Proportional Profile (Units)
  56. 56. Economy Scenario has the best sales tax performance of all Additional City Sales Tax Revenue $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $0 Trend Workshop Scenario C Scenario D Scenario T
  57. 57. Scorecard
  58. 58. Comprehensive Plan Design Four Components • Vision • Policy Plan • Implementation Plan • Monitoring System 66
  59. 59. 1st Component The Vision Capturing the City -Parish’s dreams: • Core Values derived from broad-based public input • Key Initiatives to realize the Vision • Vision Illustration based on a palette of building blocks or development patterns 67
  60. 60. 2nd Component The Policy Document • Eleven Elements linked that establish the policy foundation for achieving the Vision: – Future Land Use – Transportation Element – Economy – Infrastructure and Capital Improvements Plan – Conservation and Environmental Resources – Recreation and Open Space – Housing – Public Services and Facilities/Buildings – Urban Design, Development, and Redevelopment – Health and Human Services – Natural Hazards • Updated on 5 to 10 year cycle 68
  61. 61. Land Use Element • Establishes basis for zoning capacity to achieve growth targets • Balances and integrates land uses with transportation systems to enable sustainable growth • Institutes a framework for ongoing, small area planning to refine and implement the Vision 69
  62. 62. Urban Design Element • Establishes urban design policies tied to Vision building blocks – Encourages architecture that responds to the surrounding community in context and scale 70
  63. 63. Housing Element Recognizes EBR’s urban future – Encourages new types of ownership opportunities for non-traditional home buyers – Encourages housing supply to meet needs across the income spectrum for future generations – Creates housing conditions to attract middle income families to the Southern Sector 71
  64. 64. Economic Element Establishes policies that advance economic goals – Fosters expansion and retention of business and industry – Informs land use element to ensure it provides the right zoning for the right development in the right places 72
  65. 65. A strong Parks, Open Space and Environmental element
  66. 66. Transportation Element • Establishes fundamental linkage land use and transportation • Establishes Context Sensitive Design (CSD) standards for streets • Identifies key projects 74
  67. 67. Land Use & Transportation Connection
  68. 68. Land Use & Transportation Connection
  69. 69. Land Use & Transportation Connection
  70. 70. Matching Street Design to Land Use One size does not fit all Streets should respond to the land uses around them
  71. 71. Transit Options
  72. 72. Current Usage of Transit
  73. 73. 3rd Component The Implementation Plan
  74. 74. Implementation Plans
  75. 75. Upcoming Events • 2010 • January 26, 27 (kick-off Event) • March 2-4th (Parish Wide workshops) • April 6th-8th (Neighborhood workshops) • May 18th-20th • Summarize workshop results • June 22nd-24th • Presentation of scenarios and initial strategic issues
  76. 76. www.futurebr.com

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