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Mikrosimulering av fotgängare - effekter av att
 personer stannar upp eller står och väntar
 Fredrik Johansson12     Anders Peterson1          Andreas Tapani12

                       1 Linköping   Universitet
                               2 VTI


                        January 10, 2013
Background
                     Waiting Pedestrians
                 Results and Conclusions



Outline

  1   Background
        Project
        Motivation
        Method

  2   Waiting Pedestrians
       Motivation and Goal
       Models

  3   Results and Conclusions
        Simulation results
        Conclusions


                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   2/ 22
Background     Project
                     Waiting Pedestrians    Motivation
                 Results and Conclusions    Method



Outline

  1   Background
        Project
        Motivation
        Method

  2   Waiting Pedestrians
       Motivation and Goal
       Models

  3   Results and Conclusions
        Simulation results
        Conclusions


                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   3/ 22
Background     Project
                     Waiting Pedestrians    Motivation
                 Results and Conclusions    Method



Project: “Simulation of interchange stations”


  Goal:
  Evaluate a proposed design of a multi modal public transport
  interchange station using microscopic simulation.

      Initiators: Peterson and Tapani (LiU and VTI).
      Financier: Trafikverket.
      Beneficiaries: Linköping municipality and Östgötatrafiken.
      Performed by: LiU and VTI.




                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   4/ 22
Background     Project
                    Waiting Pedestrians    Motivation
                Results and Conclusions    Method



Motivation

  Why study interchange stations?
      Stations are important for system performance.
      An increasing number of people travel by public transport.
      For efficient transfers small stations are needed.

  The Problem
  Small station + lots of people ⇒ congestion.

  Congestion causes
      Delay
      Discomfort


                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013     5/ 22
Background     Project
                    Waiting Pedestrians    Motivation
                Results and Conclusions    Method



Motivation

  Why study interchange stations?
      Stations are important for system performance.
      An increasing number of people travel by public transport.
      For efficient transfers small stations are needed.

  The Problem
  Small station + lots of people ⇒ congestion.

  Congestion causes
      Delay
      Discomfort


                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013     5/ 22
Background     Project
                    Waiting Pedestrians    Motivation
                Results and Conclusions    Method



Motivation

  Why study interchange stations?
      Stations are important for system performance.
      An increasing number of people travel by public transport.
      For efficient transfers small stations are needed.

  The Problem
  Small station + lots of people ⇒ congestion.

  Congestion causes
      Delay
      Discomfort


                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013     5/ 22
Background     Project
                    Waiting Pedestrians    Motivation
                Results and Conclusions    Method



Method: Microscopic Simulation

  What?
     Modeling of the individual microscopic entities.
     Macroscopic flow structures are not explicitly modeled, but
     emerges from the interaction.
  Why?
     Congested pedestrian traffic is highly dynamic.
     The pedestrian traffic volumes in a station varies much
     both in space and time.
     Walkable areas can have almost arbitrary shape.
     The pedestrian population is diverse.


                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013    6/ 22
Background     Project
                    Waiting Pedestrians    Motivation
                Results and Conclusions    Method



Method: Microscopic Simulation

  What?
     Modeling of the individual microscopic entities.
     Macroscopic flow structures are not explicitly modeled, but
     emerges from the interaction.
  Why?
     Congested pedestrian traffic is highly dynamic.
     The pedestrian traffic volumes in a station varies much
     both in space and time.
     Walkable areas can have almost arbitrary shape.
     The pedestrian population is diverse.


                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013    6/ 22
Background      Project
                    Waiting Pedestrians     Motivation
                Results and Conclusions     Method



General model structure


                 Behavior                    Model

                  Activity                    Not
 Strategical
                 planning                   modeled

                                            Shortest
  Tactical     Route choice
                                             path

                Evasive                    Social force
 Operational
               maneuvers                     model




                       Johansson et. al.    Transportforum 2013   7/ 22
Background      Project
                    Waiting Pedestrians     Motivation
                Results and Conclusions     Method



General model structure


                 Behavior                    Model

                  Activity                    Not
 Strategical
                 planning                   modeled
                                                                  O-D
                                            Shortest
  Tactical     Route choice
                                             path

                Evasive                    Social force
 Operational
               maneuvers                     model




                       Johansson et. al.    Transportforum 2013         7/ 22
Background      Project
                    Waiting Pedestrians     Motivation
                Results and Conclusions     Method



General model structure


                 Behavior                    Model

                  Activity                    Not
 Strategical
                 planning                   modeled
                                                                  O-D
                                            Shortest
  Tactical     Route choice
                                             path
                                                                  vp (x)
                Evasive                    Social force
 Operational
               maneuvers                     model




                       Johansson et. al.    Transportforum 2013            7/ 22
Background
                                            Motivation and Goal
                     Waiting Pedestrians
                                            Models
                 Results and Conclusions



Outline

  1   Background
        Project
        Motivation
        Method

  2   Waiting Pedestrians
       Motivation and Goal
       Models

  3   Results and Conclusions
        Simulation results
        Conclusions


                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   8/ 22
Background
                                           Motivation and Goal
                    Waiting Pedestrians
                                           Models
                Results and Conclusions



Modeling waiting pedestrians

  Why?
     At interchange stations a significant fraction of the
     population are waiting.
     The location of waiting areas can to some extent be
     controlled.
  Goal
     Develop different extensions to the model to include
     waiting pedestrians.
     Characterize and compare the predictions of the different
     extensions.


                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   9/ 22
Background
                                           Motivation and Goal
                    Waiting Pedestrians
                                           Models
                Results and Conclusions



Modeling waiting pedestrians

  Why?
     At interchange stations a significant fraction of the
     population are waiting.
     The location of waiting areas can to some extent be
     controlled.
  Goal
     Develop different extensions to the model to include
     waiting pedestrians.
     Characterize and compare the predictions of the different
     extensions.


                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   9/ 22
Background
                                           Motivation and Goal
                    Waiting Pedestrians
                                           Models
                Results and Conclusions



A naive waiting model




  Model 0: Stop and stay
                                     vi = 0.

  Problem: Only a few waiting pedestrians may cause almost
  complete stop.




                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   10/ 22
Background
                                           Motivation and Goal
                    Waiting Pedestrians
                                           Models
                Results and Conclusions



A naive waiting model




  Model 0: Stop and stay
                                     vi = 0.

  Problem: Only a few waiting pedestrians may cause almost
  complete stop.




                       Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   10/ 22
Background
                                                Motivation and Goal
                         Waiting Pedestrians
                                                Models
                     Results and Conclusions



Structure
At what level should waiting be modeled?


                                                                        Waiting
      Behavior               Model
                                                                        model

       Activity              Not                                      Waiting area
      planning             modeled
                                                O-D
                           Shortest                                   Placement in
    Route choice                                                      waiting area
                            path
                                                vp (x)
      Evasive            Social force                                 Interactions
     maneuvers             model                                      while waiting




                            Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013                   11/ 22
Background
                                          Motivation and Goal
                   Waiting Pedestrians
                                          Models
               Results and Conclusions



Three waiting models

  Model A: Stop
                                    vp = 0.
                                     i


  Model B: Choose a spot
              vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 .
               i     i              i


  Model C: Choose a spot, adjust it
              vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 .
               i     i              i

                        Max p = −Fp − Ffriction
                                  i
                               i



                      Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   12/ 22
Background
                                          Motivation and Goal
                   Waiting Pedestrians
                                          Models
               Results and Conclusions



Three waiting models

  Model A: Stop
                                    vp = 0.
                                     i


  Model B: Choose a spot
              vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 .
               i     i              i


  Model C: Choose a spot, adjust it
              vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 .
               i     i              i

                        Max p = −Fp − Ffriction
                                  i
                               i



                      Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   12/ 22
Background
                                          Motivation and Goal
                   Waiting Pedestrians
                                          Models
               Results and Conclusions



Three waiting models

  Model A: Stop
                                    vp = 0.
                                     i


  Model B: Choose a spot
              vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 .
               i     i              i


  Model C: Choose a spot, adjust it
              vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 .
               i     i              i

                        Max p = −Fp − Ffriction
                                  i
                               i



                      Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   12/ 22
Background
                                            Simulation results
                     Waiting Pedestrians
                                            Conclusions
                 Results and Conclusions



Outline

  1   Background
        Project
        Motivation
        Method

  2   Waiting Pedestrians
       Motivation and Goal
       Models

  3   Results and Conclusions
        Simulation results
        Conclusions


                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   13/ 22
Background
                                            Simulation results
                    Waiting Pedestrians
                                            Conclusions
                Results and Conclusions



Total delay distribution
     800                                                                 Model B
                                                                         Model A
                                                                         Model C
     600


     400


     200


       0
           −2       0               2            4               6   8             10



  Mean total positive delays:
  Model A:1.4, Model B: 2.2, Model C:1.8

                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013                    14/ 22
Background
                                        Simulation results
                 Waiting Pedestrians
                                        Conclusions
             Results and Conclusions



Density, model A




                    Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   15/ 22
Background
                                        Simulation results
                 Waiting Pedestrians
                                        Conclusions
             Results and Conclusions



Density, model B




                    Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   16/ 22
Background
                                        Simulation results
                 Waiting Pedestrians
                                        Conclusions
             Results and Conclusions



Density, model C




                    Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   17/ 22
Background
                                        Simulation results
                 Waiting Pedestrians
                                        Conclusions
             Results and Conclusions



Delay rate density, model A




                    Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   18/ 22
Background
                                        Simulation results
                 Waiting Pedestrians
                                        Conclusions
             Results and Conclusions



Delay rate density, model B




                    Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   19/ 22
Background
                                        Simulation results
                 Waiting Pedestrians
                                        Conclusions
             Results and Conclusions



Delay rate density, model C




                    Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   20/ 22
Background
                                            Simulation results
                     Waiting Pedestrians
                                            Conclusions
                 Results and Conclusions



Adjust SFM for waiters

                                                                    Waiting
    Behavior             Model
                                                                    model


     Activity            Not                                      Waiting area
    planning           modeled
                                            O-D
                       Shortest                                   Placement in
  Route choice                                                    waiting area
                        path
                                            vp (x)
    Evasive          Social force                                 Interactions
   maneuvers           model                                      while waiting




                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013                   21/ 22
Background
                                            Simulation results
                     Waiting Pedestrians
                                            Conclusions
                 Results and Conclusions



Conclusions


      The models produce reasonable behavior.
      Probably necessary to interfere with the SFM.
      Significant differences in the traffic resulting from the
      different models.


  Outlook
      Data
      Calibration



                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   22/ 22
Background
                                            Simulation results
                     Waiting Pedestrians
                                            Conclusions
                 Results and Conclusions



Conclusions


      The models produce reasonable behavior.
      Probably necessary to interfere with the SFM.
      Significant differences in the traffic resulting from the
      different models.


  Outlook
      Data
      Calibration



                        Johansson et. al.   Transportforum 2013   22/ 22

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Session 74 Fredrik Johansson

  • 1. Mikrosimulering av fotgängare - effekter av att personer stannar upp eller står och väntar Fredrik Johansson12 Anders Peterson1 Andreas Tapani12 1 Linköping Universitet 2 VTI January 10, 2013
  • 2. Background Waiting Pedestrians Results and Conclusions Outline 1 Background Project Motivation Method 2 Waiting Pedestrians Motivation and Goal Models 3 Results and Conclusions Simulation results Conclusions Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 2/ 22
  • 3. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method Outline 1 Background Project Motivation Method 2 Waiting Pedestrians Motivation and Goal Models 3 Results and Conclusions Simulation results Conclusions Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 3/ 22
  • 4. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method Project: “Simulation of interchange stations” Goal: Evaluate a proposed design of a multi modal public transport interchange station using microscopic simulation. Initiators: Peterson and Tapani (LiU and VTI). Financier: Trafikverket. Beneficiaries: Linköping municipality and Östgötatrafiken. Performed by: LiU and VTI. Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 4/ 22
  • 5. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method Motivation Why study interchange stations? Stations are important for system performance. An increasing number of people travel by public transport. For efficient transfers small stations are needed. The Problem Small station + lots of people ⇒ congestion. Congestion causes Delay Discomfort Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 5/ 22
  • 6. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method Motivation Why study interchange stations? Stations are important for system performance. An increasing number of people travel by public transport. For efficient transfers small stations are needed. The Problem Small station + lots of people ⇒ congestion. Congestion causes Delay Discomfort Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 5/ 22
  • 7. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method Motivation Why study interchange stations? Stations are important for system performance. An increasing number of people travel by public transport. For efficient transfers small stations are needed. The Problem Small station + lots of people ⇒ congestion. Congestion causes Delay Discomfort Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 5/ 22
  • 8. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method Method: Microscopic Simulation What? Modeling of the individual microscopic entities. Macroscopic flow structures are not explicitly modeled, but emerges from the interaction. Why? Congested pedestrian traffic is highly dynamic. The pedestrian traffic volumes in a station varies much both in space and time. Walkable areas can have almost arbitrary shape. The pedestrian population is diverse. Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 6/ 22
  • 9. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method Method: Microscopic Simulation What? Modeling of the individual microscopic entities. Macroscopic flow structures are not explicitly modeled, but emerges from the interaction. Why? Congested pedestrian traffic is highly dynamic. The pedestrian traffic volumes in a station varies much both in space and time. Walkable areas can have almost arbitrary shape. The pedestrian population is diverse. Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 6/ 22
  • 10. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method General model structure Behavior Model Activity Not Strategical planning modeled Shortest Tactical Route choice path Evasive Social force Operational maneuvers model Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 7/ 22
  • 11. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method General model structure Behavior Model Activity Not Strategical planning modeled O-D Shortest Tactical Route choice path Evasive Social force Operational maneuvers model Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 7/ 22
  • 12. Background Project Waiting Pedestrians Motivation Results and Conclusions Method General model structure Behavior Model Activity Not Strategical planning modeled O-D Shortest Tactical Route choice path vp (x) Evasive Social force Operational maneuvers model Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 7/ 22
  • 13. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions Outline 1 Background Project Motivation Method 2 Waiting Pedestrians Motivation and Goal Models 3 Results and Conclusions Simulation results Conclusions Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 8/ 22
  • 14. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions Modeling waiting pedestrians Why? At interchange stations a significant fraction of the population are waiting. The location of waiting areas can to some extent be controlled. Goal Develop different extensions to the model to include waiting pedestrians. Characterize and compare the predictions of the different extensions. Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 9/ 22
  • 15. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions Modeling waiting pedestrians Why? At interchange stations a significant fraction of the population are waiting. The location of waiting areas can to some extent be controlled. Goal Develop different extensions to the model to include waiting pedestrians. Characterize and compare the predictions of the different extensions. Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 9/ 22
  • 16. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions A naive waiting model Model 0: Stop and stay vi = 0. Problem: Only a few waiting pedestrians may cause almost complete stop. Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 10/ 22
  • 17. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions A naive waiting model Model 0: Stop and stay vi = 0. Problem: Only a few waiting pedestrians may cause almost complete stop. Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 10/ 22
  • 18. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions Structure At what level should waiting be modeled? Waiting Behavior Model model Activity Not Waiting area planning modeled O-D Shortest Placement in Route choice waiting area path vp (x) Evasive Social force Interactions maneuvers model while waiting Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 11/ 22
  • 19. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions Three waiting models Model A: Stop vp = 0. i Model B: Choose a spot vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 . i i i Model C: Choose a spot, adjust it vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 . i i i Max p = −Fp − Ffriction i i Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 12/ 22
  • 20. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions Three waiting models Model A: Stop vp = 0. i Model B: Choose a spot vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 . i i i Model C: Choose a spot, adjust it vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 . i i i Max p = −Fp − Ffriction i i Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 12/ 22
  • 21. Background Motivation and Goal Waiting Pedestrians Models Results and Conclusions Three waiting models Model A: Stop vp = 0. i Model B: Choose a spot vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 . i i i Model C: Choose a spot, adjust it vp = (xp − xi )/4τ, |xp − xi | < 4τvip0 . i i i Max p = −Fp − Ffriction i i Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 12/ 22
  • 22. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Outline 1 Background Project Motivation Method 2 Waiting Pedestrians Motivation and Goal Models 3 Results and Conclusions Simulation results Conclusions Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 13/ 22
  • 23. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Total delay distribution 800 Model B Model A Model C 600 400 200 0 −2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Mean total positive delays: Model A:1.4, Model B: 2.2, Model C:1.8 Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 14/ 22
  • 24. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Density, model A Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 15/ 22
  • 25. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Density, model B Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 16/ 22
  • 26. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Density, model C Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 17/ 22
  • 27. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Delay rate density, model A Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 18/ 22
  • 28. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Delay rate density, model B Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 19/ 22
  • 29. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Delay rate density, model C Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 20/ 22
  • 30. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Adjust SFM for waiters Waiting Behavior Model model Activity Not Waiting area planning modeled O-D Shortest Placement in Route choice waiting area path vp (x) Evasive Social force Interactions maneuvers model while waiting Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 21/ 22
  • 31. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Conclusions The models produce reasonable behavior. Probably necessary to interfere with the SFM. Significant differences in the traffic resulting from the different models. Outlook Data Calibration Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 22/ 22
  • 32. Background Simulation results Waiting Pedestrians Conclusions Results and Conclusions Conclusions The models produce reasonable behavior. Probably necessary to interfere with the SFM. Significant differences in the traffic resulting from the different models. Outlook Data Calibration Johansson et. al. Transportforum 2013 22/ 22