The varying approaches of individuals andgovernments to coping with tectonichazards in countries at different stages ofdevelopment
What approaches exist?• People cope with natural hazards in very different ways• The chosen ways are often related to wealth and access to technology• Humans do have a capacity to ignore or seriously underestimate risk, even when it seems obvious to others• Often it may seem obvious that people should move out of harms way, but in reality this may be impossible.
Move to aModify Loss safer location ModifyModify the human Event Vulnerability
Strategies Modify the event Modify human vulnerability Modify the loss (hazard mitigation) Coastal defences •Warming and prediction systems Loss modification and engineering •Coastal zone management and involves immediateTsunami landuse planning rescue efforts, •Provision of emergency kits followed by relief efforts which focus on food, shelter, Not possible •Ground shaking and liquefaction risk water and sanitation. mapping Insurance can helpEarthquakes •A seismic buildings recovery. •Earthquake education and drills Long term •Prediction not possible reconstruction is needed. Lava diversion •Monitoring, prediction warning and evacuation systemsVolcanoes •Hazard mapping e.g. lahar risk •Education •Shelters
Modify HumanModify Loss burden Modify hazard event Vulnerability Land Hazard Type Hazard Resistance Community Forecastin and ExampleAccept Environment Use Aid Insurance Preparedne g and Loss al Control Plannin ss Warning Design Retrofitting g VOLCANO LEDC VOLCANO MEDC EARTHQUAK E LEDC EARTHQUAKE MEDC
Research• You should already have some good and thorough case studies you may be expected to use in the exam• The final part of each will be coping with the event.• Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation• Attempting to stop the effects of the hazard by trying to planning before hand• Examples of this will be very few off the ground• Explain why
Adaptation• attempting to live with a hazard by altering lifestyles. This is a longer-term strategy. It assumes hazards will take place but there will be time to adapt before each and time to hopefully reduce the effects on pop’n• Examples• Land use zoning near the coast• Lava channels• Removal of debris and steepness of slopes• Monitoring.
Hyogo framework for Action 2005• Developed by the World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Kobe• Risk reduction to buildings and resilience to damage• Remove underlying factors to vulnerability• POVERTY• Aim is to exploit the Kyoto mechanisms such as Special Climate Change Funds to allow developed countries to pay for greenhouse gas cutting projects in return for carbon credits• This scheme applies at all scales
Tectonic hazards human impacts• A surprising number of people live in areas of active tectonic processes• Major tectonic hazards can strike with devastating force• The 2005 Kashmir Earthquakes killed around 85000, the 2008 Sichuan ‘quake over 65,000 and 200,000+ died in the 2004 Asian Tsunami• It is important to consider why people live, in such large numbers, in areas of great risk
Ignorance of the risks and / or underestimation of riskChoice e.g. Living in fertile areas of Inertia; always livedfarmland or tourism tectonic there risk? Nowhere else to go / lack of alternatives
Impacts - Remember• Every hazard event is different, and therefore the specific impacts of disaster vary• When researching case studies, it is important to be able to identify specific impacts and be able to explain these• Some impacts are tangible and can be given a financial value. Others are intangible, such as the destruction of a temple or artwork.• Many losses are direct and immediate such as property damage, but others are indirect – these come later and are harder to quantify, such as stress and psychological damage.• Impacts are often considered as human (death, injury, illness), economic (property loss, loss of income, cost of relief effort) and physical (changes to landscape and topography).
Developed versus developing worldDeath Event Location Date Toll5,115 Mount Kelut eruption Indonesia 1991 • It is often said that disaster23,000 Nevado del Ruiz eruption Colombia 1985 impacts in the developed world25,000 Spitak Earthquake Armenia 1988 are largely economic, whereas in30,000 Bam earthquake Iran 200335,000 Manjil Rudbar Iran 1990 the developing world they are36,000 earthquake Krakatoa eruption Indonesia 1883 human. tsunami66,000 Ancash earthquake Peru 1970 • You should carefully consider if69,197 Sichuan earthquake China 2008 this generalisation is true.86,000 Kashmir earthquake Pakistan 2005100,000 Tsunami Messina, Italy 1908 • The 1995 Kobe earthquake in105,000 Great Kanto earthquake Japan 1923 Japan and 1991 eruption of Mt230,000 Indian Ocean tsunami Indian Ocean 2004 Pinatubo in the Philippines are245,000 Tangshan earthquake China 1976 useful examples to consider
Impacts over time – Parks Model• Different hazard events have different impacts, shown by the speed of the drop in quality of life, the duration of the decline, and the speed and nature of recovery.• The differences in the 3 lines might be related to type of hazard, degree of preparedness, speed of the relief effort and the nature of recovery and rebuilding.
The hazard management cycle• Successful hazard management involves a cycle (see diagram) which focuses on the 3 types of modification from the previous slide.• A focus on modifying loss only, will not improve survival chances when the next hazard strikes• Long before a natural hazard event, there needs to be a focus on mitigation and prevention (if possible) as well as human preparedness.
Remember• This report is aimed at several types of disasters and you only need to concern yourself with the tectonic hazards• There is much generalisation but what is important is what people and governments are thinking!
Finally• KEY PLAYERS in Hazard response• Who are they?• What can they do• What difference does wealth play in disaster management?
The effectiveness of differentapproaches and methods of copingand the way in which approaches havechanged over time, and possible futurecoping strategies
Answer• Much can be found on the internet• What is important is what you find is relevant and upto date as well as any future methods• Remember future methods will pose a cost benefit issue for a lot of countries. Have you done this with your case studies?• Can you apply these to your case studies?