Consumer Futures - Scenario pack 4 - I'm in your hands


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Consumer Futures - Scenario pack 4 - I'm in your hands

  1. 1. ‘I’m in your Prosperous ‘my ‘sell it way’ to me’hands’ do it yourself do it for me ‘from me ‘I’m in your to you’ hands’ LESS Prosperous lifetime supply of rental products in-store benefitscollection neighbourhood church benefit discounts
  2. 2. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ summary ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’1. the economy is… recovering from the recession 5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands andbut growth and consumer confidence are low and credit businesses, often committing to long-term contracts oris tightly regulated… the UK is looking to promote local hire purchase agreements to get value for money… bigmanufacturing and food production to reduce its reliance retailers with high street shops that do home delivery foron a shaky world trade system all the goods2. government is… more centralised and more 6. our relationship with brands is…interventionist, and works closely with businesses and NGOs long-term, personal, loyal and conservative… we are happyto deliver essential services… using tough regulations to to share lots of personal data with brands and we trustachieve sustainability targets them to provide what’s best for us... we want products to be effective and durable3. our society is… more egalitarian, structuredand supervised, but we welcome this and enjoy a strong 7. we use the internet and technology…consensus, sense of community and national identity heavily… to find the best deals and purchase basic supplies… to scrutinise the origin and quality of products4. business and brands are… big and dominantyet bound by governments’ strict sustainability guidelines… 8. we think that sustainability is…trusted, reliable, paternalistic brands do well in this critical… a matter on which government and business takeworld and are the vehicle for long-term relationships with the lead, while frugality and a ‘waste not, want not’ attitudeconsumers are already the norm for us (return to contents page) page 57
  3. 3. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ indicators ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ inequality debt trust oil barrel UK index of inequality Average UK adult debt % of people who say that most people food imports Price of oil per (Gini coefficient; high is less equal) including mortgage in their neighbourhood can be trusted % of food consumed in UK that is imported$155 50% £50k 70% 65%$124 $140 40% £40k 56% 52% 60% 58% $93 30% 34% £30k 42% 50% 39% $90 30k$62 20% £20k 28% 26% 32% 20% 20k $31 10% £10k 14% 13% $0 0% £0k 0% 0% 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 attitudes to supermarket power nanotech household spend environment % of UK grocery market taken by top 4 online spend Number of nanotech- % of household expenditure that goes on % of people who say that environment / supermarkets % spent online based consumer products food and (non-alcoholic) drink pollution should be a government priority90% 30% 9000 30% 70% 90% 24% 28%72% 76% 24% 7200 56% 24% 55%54% 18% 5400 18% 42%36% 12% 3600 12% 15% 28% 35% 10% 318018% 6% 1800 6% 14% 13000% 0% 0 0% 0% 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 (return to contents page) page 58
  4. 4. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ the journey to this world ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ Personal carbon quotas come into force for many In the UK, parliament residents across Europe. passes a bill to reintroduce National a Major brand launches 25% of European farmers Service for the first its new wellbeing service, are directly employed by time since 1960. where all bathroom and supermarkets. kitchen appliances are A leading supermarket leased and all FMCG Governments set binding The proportion of peoplewins the waste-recycling products are supplied targets for the retail regularly attendingcontract for one of its on an annual basis to sector, to help maintain fish worship is double what it municipalities. individual households. stocks in local waters. was in 2011. 2013 2015 2017 2019 2014 2016 2018 2020 The world’s largest retailer merges Road pricing is introduced The European Union’s economy A number of National with the world’s largest fast-moving on all motorways and trunk has only grown by 10% since Parks have been stripped consumer goods (FMCG) company. roads in England and Wales. 2011. of their status to allow for more intensive The first completely staff-less Sainsbury’s United Football Strawberries are no longer farming. grocery store opens in Hamburg, with Club wins the FA Cup. imported and only available in innovations including a bank of taps for supermarkets in the summer. Blimpfreight, the liquid refills such as milk and fabric The 6th UK carbon budget is world’s leading airship softener. agreed, introducing individual distribution company, household carbon targets. floats on the London The 5th UK carbon budget is agreed, Stock Exchange. with national carbon reduction targets strengthened, paving the way for a global deal. (return to contents page) page 59
  5. 5. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ products and services ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’1. retailer leased equipment 4. tastier medicineWhy spend money on a new washing machine when you can rent one Dispense with pharmacy prescriptions just take your medicine with yourdirectly from us? We provide efficient, cheap-to-run washing machines, food. We offer personalised health products for your particulardishwashers, microwaves, cookers, fridges and freezers, each with condition. Whether it’s a smoothie with added statins, or rice fortifieda lifetime supply of products designed specifically for use with with iron, we can make pill packets a thing of the past.them. And if any part of your machine wears out we’ll provide a fullyreconditioned replacement, absolutely free. We’ll also service your 5. made-to-measureproducts regularly and upgrade them with the latest software to keep Also available are our made-to-measure diet plans, including deliciousthem running well. nutritious meals, and clothing with nutrition patches. Through our association with your own National Health Service doctor, these patches2. cradle to grave could save your life. Our range includes underwear impregnated withIn association with your neighbourhood church, we look after all your vitamins or caffeine.lifelong service needs. Everything you want for a long and happylife will be provided by a company you trust. Included in the contract Give us access to your biometric monitoring device and we’ll be able tois advice on major purchases, energy and water services, insurance, tailor your health service even better, incorporating all the stats onpensions, healthcare and funeral care, wedding planning, holidays and your daily vitals.lifelong learning. Sign up at birth to get an extra discount. 6. benefits collection3. cook no more Register with us to collect all your state benefits in-store. Spend yourWhy buy ingredients and cook them when you can buy delicious meals benefits on-site and save more. Tick ‘yes’ to give us access to yourfor delivery from your local supermarket? Forget the grotty kebab benefits data and help us provide you with the products that suit youshop or pizza-on-a-scooter and get your meals from us – we’ll cook up best.anything you like from the store and deliver within the hour. (return to contents page) page 60
  6. 6. 2 Cradle to graveRetailer-leased equipment 1 3 Cook no more ‘I’m in your hands’ products and services 4 Tastier medicine 6 Benefits collection Made-to-measure 5 (return to contents page) page 61
  7. 7. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ what kind of world are we living in? ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ at the same time inclusive. With religious worship growing, faith groupswhat is the state of the economy? and organisations play a more central role in society. The armed forcesThe recession that started a decade ago has left its mark. Although growth are expanding, and are widely used for community work. Intellectualshas resumed, it is slow, and credit is more tightly regulated as a result of worry about conformity in people’s lives – will it slow down innovation andthe personal debt crisis. Overall, the tax burden has increased in line with learning?a higher dependency ratio. Many developed countries, while still playinga role in the global economy are, increasingly, looking to promote local On the whole, people are willing to be regulated to achieve shared goals,manufacturing and food production so as to reduce reliance on a shaky and there is generally a consensus approach to governance. Some areasworld trading system. of regulation are more contentious: the relaxed privacy laws, for example, have been the subject of repeated NGO campaigns. Immigration is anotherwhat is the role of government? sensitive issue, with perceptions that it leads to more pressure on servicesThere has been a surprising move towards the centralisation of and causes further regulation and cut-backs. Race riots occasionally breakgovernments. Public sectors work closely with big business to deliver out in some parts of the country.essential services. Many NGOs are also counted as important deliverypartners, and have significant executive powers. Care of the elderly, forexample, is coordinated in large part by a coalition of national charities and what is the state of the nation’s health? In what is seen as the most efficient approach from a monetary perspective,government departments. primary and secondary services focused on prevention take the form of sweeping regulation backed by strong government campaigns onLegislation has become more interventionist. In particular, many minimum amounts of exercise and dietary guidance. Many workplacesgovernments take a hard line on sustainable development issues. Some have mandatory exercise breaks. As a result, the incidence of chronicgovernments have even banned some environmental ‘bads’, such as SUVs disease is falling, the nation is generally healthier and obesity hasn’t risen as(except the electric ones) and diesel lawnmowers. much as anticipated. There is, however, little money available for specialist drugs when ill health does strike – and those in a so-called ‘underclass’how has society changed? aren’t eligible for free healthcare because they don’t abide by governmentSocial cohesion is up, trust in institutions has risen and the wealth gap regulations.has begun to narrow. People spend more time with their close friends andfamilies, and focus on quality of life. The sense of nationhood is strong but (return to contents page) page 62
  8. 8. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ what kind of world are we living in? ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’what is the state of international relations? how has transport infrastructure changed?Global trade has not grown consistently in the past decade, and in some Infrastructure hasn’t changed significantly since the early years of theyears it has actually contracted. Some observers have called this “the 21st century, although it is now regulated and run much more efficiently.retreat of globalisation”. There are strong international agreements around Transport infrastructure is running at capacity. Congestion remains aparticular aspects of sustainable development, but concerns about targets problem on the roads, despite the fact that fuel costs have soared, and thebeing missed by rich countries, which prioritise their own wellbeing. use of pricing mechanisms which regulate road use to ensure that it is as efficient as possible. Coach travel is booming, with dedicated motorwaywhat is the role of business in society? lanes and coach stations at major motorway junctions.Big businesses are working with governments to help deliver desirablesocial and economic outcomes, and the public expects nothing less. what has happened to supply chains?Brands are strong, and act as the vehicle for long-term relationships with Supply chains are simpler as a result of vertical integration. A small numberthe consumer. Trusted, reliable, paternalistic brands do well in this world. of companies dominate the sector, with the big retailers progressively buying out their suppliers. Transport infrastructure is used efficiently byhow has energy infrastructure changed? the retail sector. New options for freight, such as very long freight trainsEnergy generation remains centralised, although small breakaway local and airships, have freed up some road capacity as well as replacing somenetworks are slowly growing in number and importance. Centralised conventional air freight. Tight regulations ensure that freight transportgrids are regulated and run much more efficiently than a decade ago. utilisation rates are as high as possible.The relatively easy availability of coal has prompted strong investment inclean-coal technology, but carbon capture and storage (CCS) has yet tobe rolled out at scale, having suffered from numerous technical hurdles.Meanwhile, demand for energy has fallen significantly as a result of wide-ranging efficiency measures, including better transmission technology. Oilprices, however, have soared, in part because of the lack of well-developedalternatives (especially in the transport sector). High carbon pricing has alsocontributed to making energy from fossil fuels very expensive. (return to contents page) page 63
  9. 9. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ what kind of world are we living in? ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’how is the retail sector regulated? Food security in particular is high on most countries’ agendas. StrongRetail is heavily regulated, but in large part this regulation has been nations have centrally directed and planned food policies, maximising thedeveloped jointly between governments and the main commercial players. efficiency of their land use through subsidies, using new biotechnologiesStrict government guidelines regulate the sustainability standards of like genetic modification, and stockpiling food where they can. In the faceproducts on shelves, for instance, but most retailers are content to work to of these efficiency pressures, and greater automation, the difficulty ofthese guidelines because they provide a level playing field. maintaining the number and quality of jobs in the sector is a contentious issue.Planning and transport regulation closely follows National Plans. Businessesare being given ever more responsibility for achieving government targets, The pre-eminence of national priorities such as food security does meansuch as the maintenance of healthy fish stocks in local waters, and they risk that global sustainability slips down the public agenda. There is less focuspenalties if those targets are missed. on the social and economic potential of international trade.what are the big global issues of the day?As in a number of western countries, there has been a resurgence in theimportance of political parties, which compete over how best to rekindlethe economy. There is lively debate about taxation levels and the role andextent of the welfare state.Countries prioritise their own wellbeing, and tend to be very inward-looking.Volatile commodity markets, for example, have provided the incentivefor many countries to focus on becoming more self-sufficient, making‘resilience’ their watchword in the face of global change. (return to contents page) page 64
  10. 10. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ shopping experience ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’what are we asking for? can prove highly competitive, notably in such areas as the provision ofConsumers want to be looked after. They want to trust businesses and service contracts.governments to provide what is best for them. Less interested in shoppingas a leisure activity, they want the products they do buy to be effective and where do products come from?durable. Shopping is more functional than it used to be, with consumers Many western countries have become more self-sufficient in food andoften choosing processed foods and specific services. The average household products. In part this is the result of government drives for foodconsumer doesn’t have much spare income, and price has to come security. Other drivers include rising transport and distribution costs.first – but there’s still a significant market for ‘treats’, as consumers trade upon occasional indulgence products. Most consumers will happily commit how do we use the internet?to long-term contracts, hire-purchase agreements and similar ‘tied in’ The internet is heavily used. It has largely replaced the supermarket asarrangements, if it means better quality and value for money. a means of obtaining basic supplies, and is used across the piece to automate systems, mainly via the ubiquitous use of electronic tags (such aswhere do we shop? which new companies do we buy RFID tags) to track the location and status of all kinds of products. Not onlyfrom? does this enable retailers to know when a consumer has used up a givenBig retailers increasingly dominate the high street, where many shops are product but it also makes products comprehensibly traceable in respectessentially just showrooms: people come and browse, place an order, and of exactly where everything comes from, how it was produced, by whomthen have their purchase delivered along with their normal regular shopping. and to what standards. This has undoubtedly increased supplier standards,Smaller high streets, especially in lower-density settlements, are in but it can make it difficult for consumers to access anything produced byeconomic decline, with chains withdrawing and other shops closing down. smaller, uncertified suppliers.Companies are consolidating as a means of managing reputation risk andtaking more control over operations. Many companies in the retail sectorown the whole sequence of operations from production through to salesand disposal. It is a world of big business, where small or independentorganisations find it difficult to make headway. However, large and trustedbrands from outside the sector are moving into the retail space, where they (return to contents page) page 65
  11. 11. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ shopping experience ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’how do we use other technology? are strong, with some retailers even operating compulsory loyalty cardThere has been a slight decline in spending on research and development schemes. Consumers are accustomed to the fact that retailers and otherin recent years. Fewer new technologies are being brought to market, but organisations own a lot of data about them (based on their transactions,there have been significant advances in systems and networking technology daily activity and online profiles), and they trust that this will be used toin particular. The pharmaceutical industry increasingly aims to deliver drug provide them with better, more personal services.treatments via foodstuffs, clothing and other household items, such asconditioner, face cream or even bed linen. how do we view sustainability? People view sustainability as critical. In the last decade the vulnerability ofFor consumers, technology is often the route to the best deal when the global economy to resource constraints and unsustainable activity hasshopping. Many retailers make time-limited special offers available to been clearly felt. Resource intensity is a key sustainability issue; frugality ispeople in the vicinity of their store, alerting potential customers to these the norm, and a ‘waste not, want not’ attitude prevails amongst consumers.offers via instant messaging to their personal devices. There is some resentment that the ‘good times’ of the noughties seem so distant, but for others the benefits of closer communities and simpler liveswhat media do we use? far outweigh any perceived loss.The media industry remains quite centralised and regulated, despite theincreased use of the internet. By contrast, much brand communication how do we view climate change?is highly targeted, and brands can exploit the huge amount of personal There has been a global agreement on climate change, which has setinformation in their possession in order to deliver highly personalised binding targets for all countries. Most people believe that governmentsmessages to consumers. In general, people place much more trust in should take the lead in combating climate change, making whatevercentral and brand-based sources than in user-generated media, which feel changes are necessary to protect the nation’s wellbeing. They trust thevery ephemeral and often inconsequential. latest climate science, and, as extreme weather becomes more frequent, they see climate change as a very real threat to national security, to foodhow do we engage with retailers and brands? production, to infrastructure and to vulnerable sectors of the population.Brands are the all-powerful tools for consumer engagement, especially As for their attitudes to what they buy, consumers expect products andthose with a long heritage. Traditional advertising, through print, broadcast services to be low-carbon as a matter of and online, remains relatively healthy. Relationships with consumers (return to contents page) page 66
  12. 12. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ Suzie’s shampoo story ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ 2 1 31. suzie doesn’t have much spare income or time. she’s been 2. Suzie decides to watch a few promotional videos from 3. Suzie gives ClenZ 24/7 her details – including her skinmeaning to switch to one of the many branded bathrooms the different brands before deciding which one to go type, hair type and fragrance preferences as well asshe’s heard her friends talk about. she likes the thought with – as she’s planning on signing the much cheaper her front-door code. When she gets back from work theof not having to worry about keeping stocked up with 24-month contract, she wants to get it right! following day, she’s delighted to see her new bathroomproducts and having at least one room in her house that’s ready to go!sorted out for her. She eventually goes with ClenZ 24/7, owned by the same super-brand she buys her detergent from, as she knowsshe checks her compare-app to see which one will suit her she can trust (return to contents page) page 67
  13. 13. ‘I’m in your hands’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ Suzie’s shampoo story ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ 5 6 44. Suzie is particularly pleased with the coordinated 5. driven by water conservation and energy saving, none 6. six months on, and Suzie is pleased with her bathroomdesign she chose for the various refillable of ClenZ 24/7’s innovative shampoos require consumers service. She’s made a few tweaks to fragrances onlinecontainers – for things that are going to be in her to ‘lather, rinse and repeat’, encouraging sparing use and has added Clenz 24/7’s make-up range to it as well.home for a long time she wanted to pick something instead. Suzie appreciates this as it saves her money. She Another thing off her mind! She tends to forget thatreally smart that fits in with her minimalistic taste. Her knows it helps the environment too, but that’s not really someone pops in every now and then to refill and cleanbathroom looks very slick now! her problem – she can rely on the brands she buys to do the containers. the legwork on that. (return to contents page) page 68