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TSB Design for Future  Climate Change   Design for Adaptation         21/11/12                       Introduction
architecturelandscapemasterplanningconsultancyresearchAninterdisciplinarypractice...                    areas of business
Financial          Analysis and       Project Client -Scenario research                            Assessment and     inte...
Our research focussed on;design elements,physical building and urban design solutions,andbehavioural elements,new ways of ...
Ely Bridge- where is it?
text       Original Design Code targets
The D4FC methodology- future climate scenarios- identified risks- research methodology- responses to risk:       The Futur...
example- Changes in annual , winter and summermean precipitation (%) at the 10, 50 and 90%probability levels, for the 2080...
‘extreme reality’Global CO2 emissions scenarios (GtC/yr)from 2000 to 2100                             high emissions in 20...
flooding &                    precipitation                          .                     subsidence                     ...
Adapted from Schar et al. (2004)Courtesy of the Committee of Climate Change                              Events like the 2...
DIRECT IMPACTS                           INDIRECT IMPACTS-Significant site flood risk ” from:     Downstream flood risk.wi...
Daily mortality, 75+, London Government Office Region, England and Wales, August 2003Source:http://www.eurosurveillance.or...
Research benchmarks - Cardiff Weather Data
‘changing world’    ?   medium emissions to        2050, 50% probability          ‘extreme reality’          high emission...
real time scenarios- Porto comparison
real time scenarios - Porto character
real time scenarios- Brisbane comparison
real time scenarios- Brisbane character
closest comparable locations
increasedCATEGORIES                      MEASURES        RISKS                                                temperature ...
measure 1.1/03 -B50:                  measure 1.1/04 -B50: “Reduce overheating effect of        “Adopt a grid to accommoda...
“Adopt a variant approach to    LOW                                                  house-types to reflect south orIMPLEM...
allow for change...measure 2.1/02/ -M50            low lying areas put to productive use                                wh...
...create amenity space is low lying areas that isallowed to flood. Co-ordinate these spaces withstreet SUDs strategy to e...
climate                                                                  street                                           ...
the 31 measures mapped against themes
IMPLEMENTATION RISK INDICATOR               Baseline-----Measures are assessed forbased on 3-bed new-build home with £127,...
based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost: Red measures: Capital Cost Uplift: £14,580(25%)                    ...
based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost: Amber measures: Capital Cost Uplift: £6,599(11.5%)                 ...
based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost: Green measures: Capital Cost Uplift: £36,315(63%) note windows £16,...
ability to influence;new build- getting itright from the startsuburban- space tochangehigh density existing?              ...
40% affordable housinglong term management potentiallow density= capacity for change                         Ely Bridge Ma...
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Climate risk to long term asset value | Matt Harrison & Louisa Phillpott

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Climate risk to long term asset value | Matt Harrison & Louisa Phillpott

  1. 1. TSB Design for Future Climate Change Design for Adaptation 21/11/12 Introduction
  2. 2. architecturelandscapemasterplanningconsultancyresearchAninterdisciplinarypractice... areas of business
  3. 3. Financial Analysis and Project Client -Scenario research Assessment and interrogation of Decision makerand testing. cost analysis of the business on risk thresholds adaptation case and climateIdentification of risks measures change stance Future Design Code WDA Project Lead - Project management, design investigation and code author our project team
  4. 4. Our research focussed on;design elements,physical building and urban design solutions,andbehavioural elements,new ways of living and working and the identification ofcollective and individual adaptation strategies.Exploration at Macro and Micro levels areas of research
  5. 5. Ely Bridge- where is it?
  6. 6. text Original Design Code targets
  7. 7. The D4FC methodology- future climate scenarios- identified risks- research methodology- responses to risk: The Future Climate Code measures- key themes- implementation methodology
  8. 8. example- Changes in annual , winter and summermean precipitation (%) at the 10, 50 and 90%probability levels, for the 2080s under theMedium emissions scenario. UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) three scenarios representing: HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW emissions three 30 year time periods: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s a range of probability levels: 10%, 33%, 50%, 67% & 90% Future Climate Scenarios
  9. 9. ‘extreme reality’Global CO2 emissions scenarios (GtC/yr)from 2000 to 2100 high emissions in 2080, 10% probabilityLow emissions (SRES B1)Medium emissions (SRES A1B) Wales average:High emissions (SRES A1FI) +7.1oC mean temperature +10.6oC mean daily max summer temp +57% winter precipitation - extreme events 400mm sea level rise. ‘changing world’ medium emissions in 2050, 50% probability Wales average: +2.5oC mean temperature +3.4oC mean daily max summer temp +14% winter precipitation levels 200mm sea level rise. Year 2 scenarios chosen- 50:50 and 90:10
  10. 10. flooding & precipitation . subsidence . increased temperature . regulations . ecosystems . food security . health . trade & business . population, social norms & attitudes . insurancerisk matrix mapping 11 risk areas
  11. 11. Adapted from Schar et al. (2004)Courtesy of the Committee of Climate Change Events like the 2003 European heatwave are likely to become the norm by the end of this century (under medium emissions scenario). identified risks - increased temperature
  12. 12. DIRECT IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS-Significant site flood risk ” from: Downstream flood risk.winter precipitation. Legacy flood defence implications?-Sea-level rise/storm surge events. Altered shoreline and land use in downtown-Surface water/sewage risk due to Cardiff.increase in extreme precipitation Disrupted infrastructure - energyevents. - water quality/availability-Site (and building-specific) drainage - transport, e.g. bridges, flooding.-Erosion risk from flooding Land-use changes across watershed (and-Increased winter storm damage beyond)-Increased probability of significantsnowfall events. Changes to availability and cost of food. identified risks - flooding and increased precipitation
  13. 13. Daily mortality, 75+, London Government Office Region, England and Wales, August 2003Source:http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=558 IMPACTS Greater incidences of insect born diseases. Increase in air pollution resulting in respiratory illnesses. Heat stress for residents as a result of warmer, dryer summers. Water stress as a result of constrained water supply. Increased demand on emergency and health services. identified risks - health
  14. 14. Research benchmarks - Cardiff Weather Data
  15. 15. ‘changing world’ ? medium emissions to 2050, 50% probability ‘extreme reality’ high emissions to 2080, 10% probability? slide title Climate Classifications
  16. 16. real time scenarios- Porto comparison
  17. 17. real time scenarios - Porto character
  18. 18. real time scenarios- Brisbane comparison
  19. 19. real time scenarios- Brisbane character
  20. 20. closest comparable locations
  21. 21. increasedCATEGORIES MEASURES RISKS temperature shading direct sun healthdesign for air movementcomfort population, social norms & attitudes fluvial flooding regulationswater food securitymanagement green ecosystems infrastructure outdoor living flooding & precip.evolving pluvial subsidence floodinglifestyles community trade, bus. & insurance governance energy food security measures to reduce risks
  22. 22. measure 1.1/03 -B50: measure 1.1/04 -B50: “Reduce overheating effect of “Adopt a grid to accommodate summer sun by providing full street trees and landcape shading to south facing buffers..” openings.” “ to prevent excess of solar gain into...all windows will need full solar hard surfaced areas and buildingshading in summer months: fixed fabric.”louvred shades; canopies; trees;pergolas with vegetation; seasonalawnings; extended eaves... measures: orientation
  23. 23. “Adopt a variant approach to LOW house-types to reflect south orIMPLEMENTATION RISK north facing front facade”Typically, this couldresult in additional floor area of 2%. ...internal layouts should be adapted depending on whether they address the street to the north or south. Main living areas to the south, with direct outdoor access via garden or balcony... addressing street to the north addressing street to the south south main living main living measures: orientation
  24. 24. allow for change...measure 2.1/02/ -M50 low lying areas put to productive use while flood incidences are few. When“Capitalise on amenity use of no longer appropriate, adapt to landscaped play space and finally give designated flood areas.” over to wetland wildlife zones... ...opportunities for place making, wellbeing and recreation in all scenarios... measures: managing water in public open space
  25. 25. ...create amenity space is low lying areas that isallowed to flood. Co-ordinate these spaces withstreet SUDs strategy to ensure storm runoff ... diagrammatic masterplan
  26. 26. climate street hierarchy Sun streets run parallel to green streets with connecting walkways. Undulating lowlands along the river bank meet the green streets and take flow into the watercourse.landscape integrated into all areas...improved air quality,attractive environment, good water management... street character
  27. 27. the 31 measures mapped against themes
  28. 28. IMPLEMENTATION RISK INDICATOR Baseline-----Measures are assessed forbased on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost: Capital Cost Uplift. LOW: %1 - 3% ccu MEDUIM: 4% - 8% ccu HIGH: over 8% ccu(unmarked measures carry no significant ccu.) associated costs
  29. 29. based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost: Red measures: Capital Cost Uplift: £14,580(25%) measures- flood risk defences flood amenity areas tree/ landscape buffers in street design overhanging eaves green roof bike storage associated costs
  30. 30. based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost: Amber measures: Capital Cost Uplift: £6,599(11.5%) measures- additional street trees house typology (N/S design) associated costs
  31. 31. based on 3-bed new-build home with £127,000 unit cost: Green measures: Capital Cost Uplift: £36,315(63%) note windows £16, 950 measures- outdoor living design enhanced on plot landscape windows openings multi adjustable refit outdoor storage for deliveries internal ‘cool store’ associated costs
  32. 32. ability to influence;new build- getting itright from the startsuburban- space tochangehigh density existing? new build- suburban- existing high density
  33. 33. 40% affordable housinglong term management potentiallow density= capacity for change Ely Bridge Masterplan- planning application

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