Presentation fan ifpri us africa forum june 11 2012


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Presentation fan ifpri us africa forum june 11 2012

  1. 1. Click to edit Master title style Meeting the Food and Nutrition Demands of an Urbanizing Africa Shenggen Fan Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute Partnership to Cut Hunger and Poverty in Africa US-Africa Forum Washington, DC | June 11, 2012Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  2. 2. Key messagesClick to edit Master title style Increasing incomes, population, and urbanization are stark realities that face Africa Demand for more and better food, esp. in urban areas will continue to rise Future demand could be met by imports, but financing rising import bills is a challenge Smallholder farming can be transformed to meet the growing food and nutrition demands Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  3. 3. Rising incomesClick to edit Master title style GDP, constant prices (%) GDP per capita ($US) Emerging & Developing economies10 2,000 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 8 1,500 6 US$ 4 1,000 2 500 0 0-2 Source: IMF 2012 Source: UN 2012 Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  4. 4. Growingedit Master title styleClick to population and urbanization Africa’s total, rural, and urban population 2.5 Rural Larger and more 2.0 Urban urban population Total 1.5Billions 1.0 Demand for more 0.5 and better food 0.0 Source: UN Population Division 2011 Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  5. 5. Structural change not contributing toClick to edit Master title styleoverall growth in Africa Decomposition of productivity growth, 1990-2005 LAC Productivity growth within sectors AFRICA within ASIA structural Productivity growth due HI to structural change -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 McMillian 2012 Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  6. 6. Varying per capita food production andClick to edit Master title styleconsumption Per capita production Per capita consumption Average Annual growth, 2000-2010 Average Annual growth, 2000-2007 Cereals CerealsRoots & Tubers Starchy Roots Pulses Pulses Vegetables Vegetables Fruits Fruits Meat Meat Fish Fish Eggs Eggs Milk Milk -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Percent Percent Source: FAO 2012 Source: FAO 2010 Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  7. 7. BUTClick to edit Master title stylePersistent hunger and undernutrition 2011 Global Hunger Index Micronutrient Deficiencies GHI components: Deficiencies (prevalence) in: • Proportion of undernourished • Iron • Prevalence of underweight in children • Vitamin A • Under-five mortality rate • Zinc Source: von Grebmer 2011 Shenggen Fan, June 2012 Source: HarvestPlus 2012
  8. 8. Small to edit offer opportunitiesClick farms Master title style Can:  use land more efficiently % of all farms Farm size (ha) Africa  produce cheaper and <2 80 more nutritious foods 2-10 15  increase own incomes 10-100 3 and productivity >100 0  promote equity, hunger, Source: Calculations based on most recent data available from FAO Agricultural World Census from late 1980s-2000s and poverty reduction AND average farm size will continue to decline due to sustained rural population growth Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  9. 9. Productivity can be increasedClick to edit Master title style Cereal yields, Africa Current & potential crop yields, Central and West Africa 30 30 Maize Current Rice, Paddy 25 25 Potential Sorghum 20Hg/ha (billions) 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 Source: FAO 2012 Source: Nin-Pratt 2011 Higher productivity of small farms = higher agricultural and economic growth Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  10. 10. Click to edit Master title style What needs to be done?Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  11. 11. Click to editsmallholder farming Transform Master title style Invest in smallholder-friendly agricultural R&D and infrastructure Innovate in financial services, risk-management mechanisms, and institutional arrangements Leverage smallholder production for nutrition and health outcomesShenggen Fan, June 2012
  12. 12. Increase smallholder productivityClick to edit Master title style Improve access to new technologies, high-quality seeds, fertilizer, and rural infrastructureMore affordable fertilizer → increased usage → higher crop yields Lower urea port price, transport Baseline & border crossing costs Maize yield responseShenggen Fan, June 2012 Source: Guo et al. 2009
  13. 13. Promoteedit Master title styleClick to innovations for smallholders  Finance - Kloeppinger-Todd and Sharma 2010 • Modern communication technology e.g. cell phone-based payment services • Financial and non-financial service bundles e.g. livestock health monitoring and credit  Insurance - Vargas Hill and Torero 2009 • Weather index-based insurance • Microfinance and microinsurance bundles  Institutions - Asenso-Okyere et al. 2008 • Producer cooperatives; contract farming • Social and rural knowledge networks Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  14. 14. Leverage smallholder farmingClick to edit Master title stylefor nutrition and health  Growing demand for high-value, processed, pre-prepared and fortified foods  Greater attention to food quality and food safety • Develop more nutritious staple food crop varieties (biofortification) • Improve postharvest handling • Enhance food safety and quality assurance along the value chain • e.g. low-cost technology and technical capacity for tackling nutrition and health risks Source: Lopriore and Muehlhoff 2003; Hawkes and Ruel 2011; Trench et al. 2011 Shenggen Fan, June 2012
  15. 15. Lessonsedit Master title styleClick to from Asia DOs DON’Ts Labor intensive urban jobs  Weak land rights Improved education and  Food safety challenges infrastructure for rural migrants  Weak link between Strengthened agricultural labor agriculture and productivity through R&D nutrition/health investment  Unsustainable Robust rural-urban food supply intensification chains  Inefficient input subsidies Vibrant rural nonfarm sector  Large regional inequality Strong local communities and rural/urban gaps Shenggen Fan, June 2012