Predicting Shopping Trends


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Investigate the perspective of the creation of a mechanism, which predicts shopping trends through a price comparison website, in order to be provided to the participating retailers of electronic products.

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Predicting Shopping Trends

  1. 1. Predicting Shopping Trends through Price Comparison Sites Nikos Filippakis September 2011
  2. 2. What’s a price comparison site? <ul><li>“ A Price comparison site allows individuals to see different lists of prices for specific products. Most price comparison services do not sell products themselves, but source prices from retailers from whom users can buy.” </li></ul><ul><li>Wikipedia </li></ul>Introduction
  3. 3. What’s the degree of usage of price comparison sites? <ul><li>“ 90 % of internet consumers use price comparison sites for shopping online products, utilities, holidays, flights and phone or broadband deals.”   </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer Intelligence research </li></ul>Introduction
  4. 4. Some of the most popular price comparison sites? Introduction
  5. 5. Price comparison sites with predictive service. Introduction
  6. 6. The structure of a price comparison site Introduction Price Comparison Site Consumers Retailers Decide and Bing Travel are both price comparison sites, offering predictions to the consumers . What about the other side, the retailers?
  7. 7. General Objective Of The Investigation <ul><li>Investigate the perspective of the creation of a mechanism, which predicts shopping trends through a price comparison site, in order to be provided to the participating retailers of electronic products. </li></ul>Objectives
  8. 8. Specific Objectives Of The Investigation <ul><li>Identify the specifications of this predictive mechanism in a price comparison. </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the value of this predictive mechanism for the retailers . </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the benefits of this predictive mechanism for the hosting price comparison site . </li></ul>Objectives
  9. 9. Objectives Of The Study <ul><li>Study the shopping trends and how they are determined, regarding consumer’s behavior, in various situations as: sales, new releases, periods of the year, Xmas, Valentine’s day, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Study the marketing strategy of online retailers and how is affected by the shopping trends. </li></ul>Objectives
  10. 10. Bing Travel <ul><li>Bing Travel is offering predictions on when is the best time to purchase airline tickets. </li></ul><ul><li>In April 2008, Farecast was bought by Microsoft at a price believed to be around $75 million to 115 million. </li></ul><ul><li>The predictive algorithms had been developed in a research project at University of Washington. </li></ul><ul><li>The algorithms identify patterns from history data and are represented in models which predict the future of airfares. </li></ul><ul><li>The accuracy is about 75%. </li></ul>Background
  11. 11. <ul><li>Recently (July 2011), has launched, a predictive price comparison site for electronic products. </li></ul><ul><li>Same base as the predictive technology of Bing Travel and same founder, the professor Oren Etzioni. </li></ul><ul><li>What press says about </li></ul><ul><li>“ The Farecast for Electronics” The New York Times </li></ul><ul><li>“ To Buy or Not to Buy? Decide Has The Answer” Mashable </li></ul><ul><li>“ For gadget buyers, timing is everything” Cnet </li></ul><ul><li>“ Hey Bing, Here’s Another Decision Engine You Can Buy!” All Things Digital </li></ul>Background
  12. 12. Price Comparison Sites Business Models <ul><li>They do not charge users. Instead, they are monetizing through payments from the participating retailers: </li></ul><ul><li>Flat fee </li></ul><ul><li>Pay Per Click </li></ul><ul><li>Pay Per Action </li></ul>Theoretical Points Price Comparison Sites Value and Acquisitions <ul><li>CNet acquired MySimon for common stock worth approximately $700M </li></ul><ul><li>Kelkoo acquired by Yahoo for €475m </li></ul><ul><li>eBay acquired for $620m </li></ul><ul><li>E.W. Scripps acquired Shopzilla $525m </li></ul><ul><li>Experian acquires PriceGrabber for $485m </li></ul><ul><li>Greenfield Online (owner of Ciao) acquired by Microsoft for up to $486m </li></ul><ul><li>Google acquires for $61.5m </li></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>If a price comparison site could transform the available incoming users data to a predictive mechanism of shopping trends, then would have a competitive advantage of the providing information to the retailers. </li></ul><ul><li>If retailers could know the shopping trends of the next period, then would be easier for them to get the right products in front of the consumers and increase their sales . </li></ul>Hypothesis
  14. 14. <ul><li>Interviewing retailers of electronic products which participate in at least one price comparison site. </li></ul><ul><li>Interviewing retailers of electronic products which do not participate in any price comparison website. </li></ul><ul><li>Interviewing at least one price comparison site. </li></ul>Methodology Interviewing
  15. 15. Nikos Filippakis