Cosmic and Solar Influences on Climate

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Does the climate change because solar and cosmic rays activities are changing?

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Cosmic and Solar Influences on Climate

  1. 1. Cosmic - Solar beyond the IPCC consensus Francis Massen http://meteo.lcd.lu1
  2. 2. Remember: 1972In 1972 the Club of Rome published its landmark report,Limits to Growth, which dramatically predicted the inevitablecollapse of civilization unless economic growth was haltedimmediately The only solution to avoid this horrible outcome? Strict government-imposed controls on just about everything and a restriction of average industrial output per capita2 at about the 1975 level.
  3. 3. remember: 19753
  4. 4. Newsweek4
  5. 5. The Little Ice Age (LIA) From 1400 -1600(?) to 1850(?) At least 1°C colder Probably global, not only NH Not uniform (time/regional)5
  6. 6. Maunder Minimum6
  7. 7. Solar irradiance variation 18807
  8. 8. Be10 = solar activity proxy (ice core)Inverted scale 8
  9. 9. C14 = solar activity proxy (tree rings) Red + Green = Be109
  10. 10. Solar wind10
  11. 11. Solar wind speed11
  12. 12. Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) GCR = electrons protons (90%) helium (9%) other nuclei (all elements)12
  13. 13. GCR modulation by solar activity13 Active sun > many sun spots > strong solar wind > blown away GCRs > less Be10 + C14
  14. 14. Decreasing GCR14
  15. 15. Cosmic shower (here iron)15
  16. 16. Ion densityhighmiddlelow16
  17. 17. GCR >>> CCN17
  18. 18. GCR and clouds18
  19. 19. GCR >>> clouds High clouds ( > 6.5 km) Middle clouds ( 3.2- 6.5 km) Low clouds ( < 3.2 km)19
  20. 20. Cloud forcings20
  21. 21. GRC and low cloud cover measured low cloud cover21
  22. 22. TSI - GCR - cloud cover Inverted scale!22
  23. 23. Sky experiment Svensmark, Danish National Spacecenter, 200523 “Natural” Cosmic rays > free electrons > clustering > CCN
  24. 24. CERN: CLOUD project (J. Kirkby, 2007-2010?)24
  25. 25. Radiative heating IPPC: CO2 emissions = + 1.66 W/m2 Palle: warming due to the reduction in cloud cover 1993 to 2001 = + 7.5 W/m225
  26. 26. ( Change relative to pre-industrial 1750 situation) LOSU = level of scientific IPCC consensus forcings understanding high low26
  27. 27. IPCC concensus ignored climate forcings  Cosmic rays  UV increase (10 times TSI increase)  Ocean emissivity (positive solar feedback)  Albedo decrease (greening earth)  ???? IPCC climate sensitivity Cs = dT/Σforcings = 0.75K/(Wm-2) probably much too high i.e. wrong!27
  28. 28. Dirty snow28 IPCC: < 7% June 2007
  29. 29. Decreasing AOT (atmospheric optical thickness) AOT is a measure of the atmosphere’s turpitude at a special wavelength. AOT = [0…1]29
  30. 30. Prof. Akasufo (director of the Arctic International Research Center) March 200730
  31. 31. GCM models unreliable Observation Model (hindcast)31 Arctic Winter 1954-2003
  32. 32. Prof. S. Akasufo (director of the Arctic International Research Center) There is so far no definitive proof that most of the “observed” warming is due to the (man made) greenhouse effect (March 2007)32
  33. 33. Prof. R. Lindzen, MIT Die heutige Unruhe hat ihre Ursachen zum grössten Teil in mangelnden Kenntnissen, was bei Wetter und Klima normal ist… Sämtliche Untersuchungen zu den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels gehen von einer langen Kette von Voraussetzungen aus, und es besteht nur eine sehr geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Folgen dieser Kette richtig vorausgesagt werden [Cicerone, Juni 07]33
  34. 34. Prof. Roger Pielke, Univ. of Boulder June 200734
  35. 35. Helmut Schmidt35 May 2007
  36. 36. Censuring GW sceptics Question parlementaire 174336
  37. 37. Web (1) http://meteo.lcd.lu37 The Global Warming Sceptic
  38. 38. 38
  39. 39. Web (2)39
  40. 40. Books Pielke&Cotton, 2007Svensmark/Calder Singer/Avery M. Leroux P. Michaels P. Michaels2007 2006 2005 2005 2000 40
  41. 41. Global temperature anomaly (versus mean of1901-2000) and CO2 for 2002-2006: no morewarming!41 NCDC (National Climatic Data Center)
  42. 42. The new indulgence (Der neue Ablass)42
  43. 43. Merci de votre attention…43

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