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Thomas Barnett, Jr. – Director, SP Thought Leadership
Shruti Jain – Senior Analyst
May 2015
Cisco Visual Networking Index ...
2© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)
Global Se...
3© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers
...
4© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers
M...
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Overview
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2.0 zettabytes is equal to:
•  12X more than ...
7© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
34.2%
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Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Global IP...
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Drivers
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Global Internet Users
From 2.8 Billion in 20...
13© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Device and Connections
From 14.2 Bill...
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Global Fixed Broadband Speed Growth
Average ...
15© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global IP Traffic – Increasing Video Viewing...
16© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
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VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
18© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
19© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Device/Connection Growth by Type
By 2...
20© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM Device/Connection Growth by Type
By 20...
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Global Video Capable Device Growth by Type
B...
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SD 2 Mbps
HD 7.2 Mbps
UHD 18 Mbps
10
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1...
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Global Average IP Traffic Per Device
2014 20...
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LATAM Average IP Traffic Per Device
2014 201...
25© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Device IP Traffic Comparison
2014 Device IP ...
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Global IP Traffic by Device Type
By 2019, No...
27© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM IP Traffic by Device Type
By 2019, Non...
28© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Internet Traffic by Device Type
By 20...
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VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
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Global IPv6 Enabled Content
US 46%
Australia...
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Global IPv6 Deployment
Source: World IPv6 La...
35© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
36© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth
By 2019,...
37© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global M2M Traffic Growth
M2M Traffic Will G...
38© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast...
39© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast...
40© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By Verti...
41© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
•  Agriculture – livestock,
soil monitoring,...
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Internet of Everything
Increasing Home Conne...
43© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
44© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Residential Market, by 2019:
62% (2.4...
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Note: By 2019, the global residential fixed ...
46© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Residential Services
Implications / Opportun...
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Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast...
48© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Note: By 2019, the global consumer mobile po...
49© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Consumer Mobile
Implications / Opportunities...
50© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast...
51© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Note: By 2019, the global business Internet ...
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Business Market Dynamics
Business Segment Op...
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VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
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Global Video Users/ Subscribers
Online & Mob...
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360 Immersive Video – Wild Card
•  Ideal for...
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VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
65© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Video Users/ Subscribers
Online & Mob...
66© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Internet and TV Users/ Subscribers
Gl...
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Global Digital Media Adapters* Growth
By 201...
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Average Household
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VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
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Global Average Fixed Broadband Speeds
Doubli...
71© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM Average Fixed Broadband Speeds
Doublin...
72© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds
Wi-Fi Exceeds Av...
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Mobile Network Speeds Increase 2.4X by 2019
...
74© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
75© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Surge of Hotspots
Globally, there will be
34...
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Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement
1997 199...
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VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
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Global Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet T...
82© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Tr...
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Busy Hour vs. Average Hour
Busy Hour Will Be...
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Other
File Shari...
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Global Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topolo...
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LATAM Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topolog...
87© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Content Delivery Network (CDN)
Intern...
88© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM Content Delivery Network (CDN)
Interne...
89© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top 10 Networ...
90© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast...
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Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast...
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Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video Con...
94© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Faster Networks Enable Better Experie...
95© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
LATAM Faster Networks Enable Better Experien...
96© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
M2M Monetization and Data Plans
Beeline M2M ...
97© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Usage Limits: Fixed vs. Mobile
Globally, Mor...
98© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Conclusion
99© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2014–2019
Key ...
100© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco VNI LATAM IP Forecast, 2014–2019
Key ...
101© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco VNI Web Sites
•  Press Release
•  Whi...
103© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Internet of Everything
By 2019, More Than 2...
2015 VNI Complete Forecast Latin America
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2015 VNI Complete Forecast Latin America

  1. 1. Thomas Barnett, Jr. – Director, SP Thought Leadership Shruti Jain – Senior Analyst May 2015 Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption Latin America (LATAM) Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Arielle Sumits – Senior Analyst Usha Andra – Senior Analyst Taru Khurana – Senior Analyst
  2. 2. 2© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned. VNI Service Adoption Forecast Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS
  3. 3. 3© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers More Devices & Connections More Internet Users Faster Broadband Speeds More Video Viewing Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 By 2019: 2014 2019 14.2 Billion 24.4 Billion 2014 2019 20.3 Mbps 42.5 Mbps 2014 2019 2.8 Billion 3.9 Billion 2014 2019 67% of Traffic 80% of Traffic IP Broadband Growth Drivers
  4. 4. 4© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers More Devices & Connections More Internet Users Faster Broadband Speeds More Video Viewing Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 By 2019: 2014 2019 1.2 Billion 1.9 Billion 2014 2019 7.2 Mbps 17 Mbps 2014 2019 260 Million 371 Million 2014 2019 61% of Traffic 82% of Traffic IP Broadband Growth Drivers
  5. 5. 5© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Overview
  6. 6. 6© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2.0 zettabytes is equal to: •  12X more than all IP traffic generated in 2009 (169 exabytes) •  30 hours of ultra-HD video per person of the world population By 2019, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 2.0 zettabytes per year •  One trillion gigabytes •  Approximately 1021 (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes) What is a zettabyte? Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Establishing the Zettabyte Era
  7. 7. 7© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 34.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2009-2014 CAGR Projected in 2010 Actual 35.6% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
  8. 8. 8© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global IP Traffic will Increase 3-Fold from 2014─2019 23% CAGR 2014–2019 59.9 72.4 88.4 109.0 135.5 168.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Exabytes per Month Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  9. 9. 9© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Chile (23% CAGR) Argentina (21% CAGR) Mexico (29% CAGR) Rest of LATAM (31% CAGR) Brazil (19% CAGR) LATAM IP Traffic Growth / Regions Rest of LATAM has the Highest Growth Rate (31%) from 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 25% CAGR 2014–2019 27% 34% 24% 9% 6%
  10. 10. 10© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Middle East and Africa (MEA) (44% CAGR) Latin America (LATAM) (25% CAGR) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (33% CAGR) Western Europe (WE) (21% CAGR) North America (NA) (20% CAGR) Asia Pacific (APAC) (21% CAGR) Global IP Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (44%) from 2014–2019 APAC will Generate 32% of all IP Traffic by 2019 29.6% 32.4% 10.0% 5.6% 14.7% Exabytes per Month 7.7% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 23% CAGR 2014–2019
  11. 11. 11© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Drivers
  12. 12. 12© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Internet Users From 2.8 Billion in 2014 to 3.9 Billion by 2019 at 6.9% CAGR North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 319 Million by 2019 CAGR 1.0% 350 Million by 2019 CAGR 0.9% 336 Million by 2019 CAGR 5.3% 371 Million by 2019 CAGR 7.4% 425 Million by 2019 CAGR 10.3% 2.1 Billion by 2019 CAGR 8.7% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  13. 13. 13© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Device and Connections From 14.2 Billion in 2014 to 24.4 Billion by 2019 at 12% CAGR North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 4.3 Billion by 2019 CAGR 14% 3.5 Billion by 2019 CAGR 13% 2.1 Billion by 2019 CAGR 12% 1.9 Billion by 2019 CAGR 9% 2.1 Billion by 2019 CAGR 9% 10.5 Billion by 2019 CAGR 11% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  14. 14. 14© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Fixed Broadband Speed Growth Average Broadband Speed Will More Than Double from 20.3 Mbps (2014) to 42.5 Mbps (2019) North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 2.0-fold Growth 21.8 to 43.7 Mbps 2.3-fold Growth 21.8 to 49.1 Mbps 2.0-fold Growth 22.2 to 45.3 Mbps 2.3-fold Growth 7.2 to 16.9 Mbps 2.4-fold Growth 6.1 to 14.9 Mbps 2.1-fold Growth 23.2 to 48.9 Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  15. 15. 15© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global IP Traffic – Increasing Video Viewing By 2019, Video Will Drive 80% of IP Traffic, Up from 67% in 2014 North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 84% of traffic by 2019 22% CAGR 80% of traffic by 2019 28% CAGR 72% of traffic by 2019 45% CAGR 82% of traffic by 2019 32% CAGR 78% of traffic by 2019 55% CAGR 79% of traffic by 2019 26% CAGR Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  16. 16. 16© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Top Trends
  17. 17. 17© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  18. 18. 18© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  19. 19. 19© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Device/Connection Growth by Type By 2019, M2M Connections Will be More Than 40% of Total Connections 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Other (4.9%,3.6%) Tablets (3%,4%) PCs (11%,6%) TVs (11%,12%) Non-Smartphones (32%,13%) Smartphones (15%,19%) M2M (24%,43%) Billions of Devices * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 12% CAGR 2014–2019
  20. 20. 20© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM Device/Connection Growth by Type By 2019, M2M Connections Will be More Than 30% of Total Connections 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Other (3.3%,4.1%) Tablets (3%,5%) PCs (13%,8%) TVs (6%,14%) Non-Smartphones (40%,14%) Smartphones (17%,24%) M2M (18%,31%) Billions of Devices * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 9% CAGR 2014–2019
  21. 21. 21© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Video Capable Device Growth by Type By 2019, Smartphones More Than 40% of Total Video Capable Devices 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Other (0.8%,0.3%) Tablets (7%,8%) M2M (3%,9%) PCs (26%,14%) TVs (26%,27%) Smartphones (36%,42%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 14% CAGR 2014–2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share Billions of Devices
  22. 22. 22© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential SD 2 Mbps HD 7.2 Mbps UHD 18 Mbps 10 33 77 146 245 371 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Connected 4K TV Sets (M) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Increasing Video Definition By 2019, More than 31% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K
  23. 23. 23© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Average IP Traffic Per Device 2014 2019 Wearable Device Smartphone Tablet MBs per Month MBs per Month 1,640 8,419 6,213 14,800 6,258 34,880 23,824 36,311 22,415 50,177 M2M Module Internet Set-Top or Dongle Smartphone Tablet Laptop / PC 92 433 Ultra High Definition TV* Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 *Note: Includes IP VoD traffic
  24. 24. 24© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM Average IP Traffic Per Device 2014 2019 Wearable Device Smartphone Tablet MBs per Month MBs per Month 942 5,312 4,717 11,271 6,608 32,113 21,577 34,056 9,979 11,778 M2M Module Internet Set-Top or Dongle Smartphone Tablet Laptop / PC 49 409 Ultra High Definition TV* Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 *Note: Includes IP VoD traffic
  25. 25. 25© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Device IP Traffic Comparison 2014 Device IP Traffic Generation Comparisons Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Wearable Device Smartphone Tablet M2M Module Internet Set-Top or Dongle Smartphone Tablet Laptop / PC Ultra High Definition TV* Monthly basic mobile phone data traffic 1077 X= 283 X= 281 X= 74 X= 4 X= 1013 X=
  26. 26. 26© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global IP Traffic by Device Type By 2019, Non-PC Devices will Drive 67% of Global IP Traffic 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Other (0.1%,0.1%) Non-Smartphones (0%,0%) M2M (1%,3%) Tablets (4%,19%) TVs (29%,22%) Smartphones (6%,23%) PCs (60%,33%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 23% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share
  27. 27. 27© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM IP Traffic by Device Type By 2019, Non-PC Devices will Drive 59% of LATAM IP Traffic 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Other (0.05%,0.1%) Non-Smartphones (0.08%,0.08%) M2M (0.3%,2%) Tablets (5%,24%) TVs (7%,14%) Smartphones (4%,19%) PCs (83%,41%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 25% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share
  28. 28. 28© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2019, Non-PC Devices will Drive 64% of Global Internet Traffic 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Other (0.1%,0.1%) Non-Smartphones (0%,0%) M2M (1%,3%) TVs (7%,8%) Tablets (6%,24%) Smartphones (8%,28%) PCs (78%,36%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 26% CAGR 2014–2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share Exabytes per Month
  29. 29. 29© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential , Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  30. 30. 30© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 IPv6 Capable Mobile Devices IPv6 Capable Fixed Devices 2.0B 3.7B 1.0B Global IPv6-Capable Devices/Connections By 2019, 41% of Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable 6.2B Number of Devices (B) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 26% CAGR 2014–2019
  31. 31. 31© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 IPv6 Capable Mobile Devices IPv6 Capable Fixed Devices 0.2B 0.3B 0.06B LATAM IPv6-Capable Devices/Connections By 2019, 46% of Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable 0.6B Number of Devices (B) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 27% CAGR 2014–2019
  32. 32. 32© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Middle East and Africa (MEA) (106% CAGR) Latin America (LATAM) (75% CAGR) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (99% CAGR) Western Europe (WE) (66% CAGR) North America (NA) (79% CAGR) Asia Pacific (APAC) (74% CAGR) Global IPv6 Traffic Growth / Regions By 2019, IPv6 Will Represent 34% of Total Internet Traffic 22.4% 33.7% 11.6% 6.5% 17.9% Exabytes per Month 7.9% 2.6 46 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 77% CAGR 2014–2019
  33. 33. 33© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global IPv6 Enabled Content US 46% Australia 49% Brazil 57% UK 46% Spain 49% Today Projected in 2019 25% 6.6% Source: Cisco IPv6 Labs
  34. 34. 34© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global IPv6 Deployment Source: World IPv6 Launch
  35. 35. 35© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential , Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  36. 36. 36© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By 2019, 1.5 M2M Connections Per Capita Globally 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Middle East & Africa (26.2% CAGR) Latin America (21.5% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (28.2% CAGR) Western Europe (25.8% CAGR) North America (28.6% CAGR) Asia Pacific (24.4% CAGR) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 26% CAGR 2014–2019 Billions of M2M Connections
  37. 37. 37© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global M2M Traffic Growth M2M Traffic Will Grow 15-Fold from 2014 to 2019 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Middle East & Africa (94.4% CAGR) Latin America (85.8% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (86.4% CAGR) Western Europe (76.3% CAGR) North America (82.2% CAGR) Asia Pacific (61.2% CAGR) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 71% CAGR 2014–2019 Petabytes per Month
  38. 38. 38© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 By 2019, M2M modules will be 43% of total global devices and connections and will account for 3% (4.6 EBs/month) of total global IP traffic.
  39. 39. 39© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 In LATAM, by 2019, M2M modules will be 31% of total devices and connections and will account for 1.9% (0.2 EBs/month) of total IP traffic.
  40. 40. 40© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By Vertical By 2019, Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth - 2 4 6 8 10 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Other* (38.2% CAGR) Energy (31.9% CAGR) Manufacturing & Supply Chain (8.9% CAGR) Retail (10.5% CAGR) Connected Cities (28.2% CAGR) Connected Health (49.4% CAGR) Connected Car (37.3% CAGR) Utilities (21% CAGR) Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (29.4% CAGR) Connected Home (23.1% CAGR) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 26% CAGR 2014–2019 Billions of M2M Connections *Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services
  41. 41. 41© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential •  Agriculture – livestock, soil monitoring, water and resource conservation, temperature control for milk tanks + •  Construction: Site and equipment monitoring •  Emergency services and national security •  New energy sources – monitoring and power generation support apps •  Smart grid and distribution •  Micro-generation– generation of power, by residential, commercial and community users on their own property •  Mining and extraction •  Manufacturing and processing •  Supply chain •  Warehousing and storage •  Retail goods monitoring and payment •  Retail venue access and control •  Slot machines, vending machines •  Environment and public safety – closed-circuit TV, street lighting, waste removal, information + •  Public space advertising •  Public transport •  Road traffic management •  Health monitors •  Assisted living – medicine dispensers + •  Clinical trials •  First responder connectivity •  Telemedicine •  Fleet management •  In-vehicle entertainment systems, emergency calling, Internet •  Vehicle diagnostics, navigation •  Stolen vehicle recovery •  Lease, rental, insurance management •  Electric vehicle charging •  Smart metering •  Office building automation •  Building security •  Office equipment – printers + •  Routers + •  Commercial appliances •  Home automation •  Building security •  Network equipment – printers + •  Network infrastructure – routers + •  White goods •  Tracking applications •  Household information devices Connected CarConnected WorkConnected Home Connected Health Utilities OtherEnergyRetail Connected Cities Manufacturing & Supply Chain
  42. 42. 42© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet of Everything Increasing Home Connectivity Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Note: Globally, there will be 2.2 billion households by 2019 On average, there will be more than two connected home modules per global household by 2019 2019 5.0 Billion Connected Home Modules 2014 1.8 Billion Connected Home Modules HVAC and Lighting Systems Home Security Fire Alarm Smart Appliances Child, Pet and Personal Items Tracking Printers, Scanners, Home Routers Distributed Screens
  43. 43. 43© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  44. 44. 44© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Residential Market, by 2019: 62% (2.4 billion) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 79% (1.4 billion) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 9.4 billion fixed residential devices and connections (up from 4.9 billion in 2014). Average household will have 4.3 fixed devices and connections (up from 2.4 in 2014). Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  45. 45. 45© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Note: By 2019, the global residential fixed Internet population will be 2.4 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion Global Residential Services By 2019, Time Delayed TV Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption CAGR 2014–2019 Online Music Social Networking Online Video Online Gaming VoIP Digital TV Video on Demand Time Delayed TV 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019 % Adoption Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2014–2019
  46. 46. 46© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Residential Services Implications / Opportunities Residential Market Dynamics Residential Opportunities for Service Providers •  More / new connections •  Preference for mobility •  Need to monetize increased network demand •  Extend content / service reach across new devices and connections •  Partner and form new eco- systems with OTTPs •  Develop Wi-Fi / mobility plans •  Bolster service portfolio with value-added IoE / M2M applications
  47. 47. 47© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2019: There will be 4.9 billion consumer mobile users (64% of population). There will be 9.8 billion consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 2.0 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2014).
  48. 48. 48© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Note: By 2019, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.9 billion. Global Consumer Mobile ServicesBy 2019, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Banking & Commerce Will Have Highest Adoption CAGR 2014–2019 Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2014–2019 MMS Mobile Social NetworkingMobile Email Consumer LBS Mobile Gaming Mobile Banking & Commerce Mobile Video Mobile Music -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2019 % Adoption
  49. 49. 49© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Consumer Mobile Implications / Opportunities Consumer Mobile Market Dynamics Consumer Mobile Opportunities for Service Providers •  More / new devices and connections •  Demand for seamless transition / experience between fixed and mobile •  Demand for Wi-Fi offload and faster speeds •  Need to monetize increased network demand •  Extend reach of traditional / brick and mortar services •  Shared data plans •  Blend service offers with online services / content •  Developing / monetizing Wi-Fi offers •  Partner with device manufacturers / content creators (consider busy /peak demands)
  50. 50. 50© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Global Business Market, by 2019: There will be 2.2 billion business Internet users (63% of global work force). There will be 582 million business mobile users (17% of global work force). There will be 5.3 billion business devices and connections (up from 2.8 billion in 2014). Average business internet user will have 2.4 devices and connections There will be 1.7 billion business mobile device and connections (up from 943 million in 2014). Average business mobile user will have 2.9 mobile devices and connections
  51. 51. 51© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Note: By 2019, the global business Internet population will be 2.2 billion; the number of business users will be 582 million. Global Business ServicesBy 2019, Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have Highest Adoption CAGR 2014–2019 Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2014–2019 SMS Mobile Email Room Based Video Conferencing IP Telephony Business LBS Audio Conferencing Desktop Video Conferencing Web Conferencing w/o Video -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019 % Adoption
  52. 52. 52© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Business Market Dynamics Business Segment Opportunities for Service Providers •  More / new devices and connections—growing demand for BYOD •  Low penetration of mobile devices •  Growing demand for service transition from fixed to mobile •  Premium security •  Enhance productivity, customer support •  Cloud services and storage— network, computing, infrastructure •  Offer vertical specific IoE / M2M services •  Blending and bundling with other services Business Services Implications / Opportunities
  53. 53. 53© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  54. 54. 54© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gaming (0.05% , 0.08% ) File Sharing (11.6% , 4.3% ) Web/Data (21.3% , 15.5% ) IP VoD (23.6% , 16.0% ) Internet Video (43.4% , 64.1% ) Global IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 80% of Global IP Traffic by 2019 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 23% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares
  55. 55. 55© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gaming (0.03% , 0.05% ) File Sharing (16.0% , 5.2% ) Web/Data (23.2% , 13.2% ) IP VoD (6.0% , 10.3% ) Internet Video (54.8% , 71.2% ) LATAM IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 82% of LATAM IP Traffic by 2019 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 25% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares
  56. 56. 56© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Video Users/ Subscribers Online & Mobile Video Growing Faster Than Digital TV 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Online Video ( 7.3% CAGR) Digital TV HH ( 4.9% CAGR) Mobile Video ( 21.0% CAGR) Users/ Subscriptions (M)
  57. 57. 57© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gaming (0.07% , 0.10% ) File Sharing (16.3% , 5.3% ) Web/Data (24.7% , 17.5% ) Internet Video (58.9% , 77.1% ) Global Internet Video Traffic Growth Internet Video Will Account for 77 Percent of Global Internet Traffic by 2019 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares Exabytes per Month 26% CAGR 2014–2019
  58. 58. 58© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gaming (0.03% , 0.06% ) File Sharing (17.9% , 6.0% ) Web/Data (22.5% , 14.1% ) Internet Video (59.6% , 79.9% ) LATAM Internet Video Traffic Growth Internet Video Will Account for 80 Percent of LATAM Internet Traffic by 2019 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares Exabytes per Month 24% CAGR 2014–2019
  59. 59. 59© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Console Game Downloads (1.5% , 4.6% ) Global Internet Gaming Traffic Growth Game Downloads To Account for Nearly 5% Percent of Fixed Consumer Internet by 2019; Currently 2% of Average and 10% of Peak Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month 24% CAGR 2014–2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares
  60. 60. 60© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.6% , 13.9% ) High Def (HD) Video (38.6% , 53.5% ) Standard Def (SD) Video (60.8% , 32.6% ) Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video Growth Ultra-HD IP Video Will Account for 14% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2019 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 27% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares
  61. 61. 61© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1% , 4.1% ) High Def (HD) Video (15.8% , 38.6% ) Standard Def (SD) Video (84.2% , 57.3% ) Higher Definition Content Impacts LATAM IP Video Growth Ultra-HD IP Video Will Account for 4% of LATAM IP Video Traffic by 2019 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 32% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares
  62. 62. 62© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.2% , 21.0% ) High Def (HD) Video (55.8% , 69.9% ) Standard Def (SD) Video (44.0% , 9.1% ) Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP VoD Growth Ultra-HD IP VoD Will Account for 21% of Global IP VoD Traffic by 2019 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 14% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares
  63. 63. 63© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 360 Immersive Video – Wild Card •  Ideal format for user-driven sports, entertainment and travel related video content •  YouTube added support for 360 videos (March 2015), making the site more useful to VR headset owners •  Google offers 360 video production support •  Currently a small selection of videos--more expected as new 360 camera options become available •  Live and VoD 360 content (4K) could have a significant “multiplier effect” on traffic due to higher definition and bit rates
  64. 64. 64© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  65. 65. 65© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Video Users/ Subscribers Online & Mobile Video Growing Faster Than Digital TV - 1,000 2,000 3,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Online Video ( 7.3% CAGR) Digital TV HH ( 4.9% CAGR) Mobile Video ( 21.0% CAGR) Users/ Subscriptions (M) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  66. 66. 66© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Internet and TV Users/ Subscribers Global Residential Internet Growing; TV Household Penetration Flattening 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Residential Internet* ( 6.8% CAGR) Total TV HH ( 1.8% CAGR) Users/ Subscriptions (M) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 * Residential Internet users include fixed and mobile Internet users
  67. 67. 67© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Digital Media Adapters* Growth By 2019, DMAs Will Represent 7% of Global Internet Set-Top-Boxes (STB) By 2019, DMAs Will Represent 32% of Global Internet STB Traffic Digital Media Adapters (M) 64.4 91.7 119.1 143.4 163.3 181.2 0 50 100 150 200 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.68 1.13 1.67 2.25 2.83 3.43 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 DMA Traffic (EB/Month) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 38% CAGR 2014–201923% CAGR 2014–2019 * DMAs include devices such as Roku, Apple TV, Chromecast etc.
  68. 68. 68© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 92 0 20 40 60 80 100 2015 Average Household Cord-Cutting Household 43 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 GB per Month Global Cord-Cutting Generates Double the Traffic A Cord-Cutting Household Generates 92 GB per Month in 2015, Compared to 43 GB per Month for an Average Household
  69. 69. 69© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  70. 70. 70© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Average Fixed Broadband Speeds Doubling in Speeds From 2014-2019 2014 2019 Global Mbps BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa 20.3 21.8 21.8 7.2 23.2 22.2 6.1 42.5 43.7 49.1 16.9 48.9 45.3 14.9 Latin America GLOBAL Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  71. 71. 71© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM Average Fixed Broadband Speeds Doubling in Speeds From 2014-2019 2014 2019 Latin America Mbps BY COUNTRY Argentina Brazil 7.2 4.4 8.3 16.9 14.9 18.6 REGION Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Chile 13.4 27.8 Mexico 7.3 19.1
  72. 72. 72© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2014-2019 2014 2019 Global Mbps BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa 10.6 14.3 13.0 5.8 10.3 11.7 3.9 18.5 29.0 20.9 8.6 15.6 22.0 4.7 Latin America GLOBAL Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  73. 73. 73© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Mobile Network Speeds Increase 2.4X by 2019 Average Cell Connection Speed (1.7 Mbps in 2014) Will Grow at a 19% CAGR—Reaching Nearly 4.0 Mbps by 2019 2014 2019 Global Mbps BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa 1.7 2.8 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.6 0.6 3.9 6.4 4.7 2.9 3.5 3.7 2.1 Latin America GLOBAL Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  74. 74. 74© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  75. 75. 75© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Surge of Hotspots Globally, there will be 341 million hotspots by 2018 •  By 2018, the US leads in total number of hotspots, followed by China and France •  Europe is the “continent of Wi-Fi” with 50% of the world’s Wi-Fi estate in 2014. By 2018, Asia will lead. •  Today, China has 5 times more commercial Wi-Fi hotspots than any other country •  Community Wi-Fi has been driven by Europe and then North America, but Asia will catch up in 2018 Source: Maravedis Rethink and iPass Inc.
  76. 76. 76© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 802.11 2 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Basic internet 802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Email 802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Rich Media Web 802.11ac 3.6 Gbps Max Applications Enabled High Resolution Video Wired Complement 802.11n 600 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Medium Resolution Video Number of 802.11ac Home CPE to Increase 20-fold from 2014 to 2019
  77. 77. 77© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mobile Data (57.3% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (11.4% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67.5% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (21.1% CAGR) 17% Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2019, Two-Thirds of Total IP Traffic Will Be Wireless* 33% 36% 14% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 23% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile
  78. 78. 78© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mobile Data (58.9% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12.9% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (74.5% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (20.8% CAGR) 14% LATAM IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2019, 77% of Total LATAM IP Traffic Will Be Wireless* 23% 47% 16% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 25% CAGR 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month * Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile
  79. 79. 79© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mobile Data (57.3% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (9.9% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67.5% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (21.7% CAGR) Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology Wireless Traffic Dominates Internet Traffic 19% 42% 18% 21% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month 26% CAGR 2014–2019
  80. 80. 80© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  81. 81. 81© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster than Average Hour 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Average Hour Busy Hour Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Traffic Rate (Tbps)
  82. 82. 82© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster than Average Hour 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Average Hour Busy Hour Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Traffic Rate (Tbps)
  83. 83. 83© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher than Average Hour by 2019 2.8 2.6 2.6 3.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.0 3.1 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Global APAC LATAM NA WE CEE MEA A x i s T i t l e Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic
  84. 84. 84© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Upstream Other File Sharing Web/Data Cloud Downloads Internet Video Global Upstream Traffic Upstream is 23% of Bi-Directional Traffic Cloud is 13% of Upstream Internet Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month
  85. 85. 85© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topology Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 2014 Metro is 2.1x Long-Haul 29 EB/mo 60 EB/mo 60 EB/mo Long-Haul Metro Access 2019 Metro is 3.0x Long-Haul 57 EB/mo 168 EB/mo 168 EB/mo Long-Haul Metro Access
  86. 86. 86© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topology Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 2014 Metro is 1.3x Long-Haul 5 EB/mo 20 EB/mo 20 EB/mo Long-Haul Metro Access 2019 Metro is 1.7x Long-Haul 5 EB/mo 50 EB/mo 50 EB/mo Long-Haul Metro Access
  87. 87. 87© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Content Delivery Network (CDN) Internet Traffic 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Non-CDN Internet Traffic (60.6%, 38.1%) CDN Internet Traffic (39.4%, 61.9%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month
  88. 88. 88© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM Content Delivery Network (CDN) Internet Traffic 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Non-CDN Internet Traffic (82.9%, 64.9%) CDN Internet Traffic (17.1%, 35.1%) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Exabytes per Month
  89. 89. 89© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends 1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix 2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity 3 4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business 5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth 6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening? 7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth 8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum 9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro) 10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth
  90. 90. 90© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage Average Traffic per User 2014 16 GB per month 2019 37 GB per month Future 75 GB per month Average Traffic per Household 2014 37 GB per month 2019 91 GB per month Future 150 GB per month
  91. 91. 91© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Average LATAM Internet Bandwidth Usage Average Traffic per User 2014 15 GB per month 2019 34 GB per month Future 75 GB per month Average Traffic per Household 2014 44 GB per month 2019 97 GB per month Future 150 GB per month
  92. 92. 92© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 83 61 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2014 2019 Other Broadband FTTx 35 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 GB per Month Globally, FTTx Traffic is 77% Higher than Non-FTTx FTTx Generates 61 GB per Month in 2014 and 120 GB per Month by 2019
  93. 93. 93© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video Consumption Video Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 Fixed Broadband Speeds (Mbps) Video Minutes per Viewer Linear (Video Minutes per Viewer) Indonesia India Argentina Italy Mexico Brazil Australia Chile Russia Canada U.K. Japan Germany China New Zealand France Spain U.S. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 Video Minutes per Viewer
  94. 94. 94© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Global Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences 68% of all broadband connections by 2019 Online Video (HD movie download) 22 minutes (UHD movie download) 2 hours 10 Mbps 33% of all broadband connections by 2019 Online Video (HD movie download) 9 minutes (UHD movie download) 48 minutes 25 Mbps 7% of all broadband connections by 2019 Online Video (HD movie download) 2 minutes (UHD movie download) 12 minutes 100 Mbps
  95. 95. 95© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential LATAM Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences 33% of all broadband connections by 2019 Online Video (HD movie download) 22 minutes (UHD movie download) 2 hours 10 Mbps 12% of all broadband connections by 2019 Online Video (HD movie download) 9 minutes (UHD movie download) 48 minutes 25 Mbps 3% of all broadband connections by 2019 Online Video (HD movie download) 2 minutes (UHD movie download) 12 minutes 100 Mbps
  96. 96. 96© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential M2M Monetization and Data Plans Beeline M2M Services – mapping, monitoring, reporting, telemetry targeted at fleet management, oil and gas, point of sale terminal customers; Global M2M roaming alliance with KPN, NTT DoCoMo, Rogers Wireless, SingTel, Telefonica, and Telstra – cohesive global M2M solutions. Telefónica UK to deploy smart meters in the central and southern regions of Great Britain – over 53m smart meters by 2020; £6.7bn in net benefits to UK through efficiency in management and deployment and reduced energy consumption. CEE Region Digital Life ($54.97/ month) home automation and security offer. It provides 24/7 monitoring, video surveillance, garage controller, smoke and carbon monoxide sensor, remote access from smartphone, tablet, or computer. Text and email alerts. Mobile Shared Data Plan (10GB / $80 per month) can be shared across smartphones, tablets, basic phones, cameras, internet gaming devices, cars. NA Region WE Region NA Region
  97. 97. 97© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Usage Limits: Fixed vs. Mobile Globally, More Mobile than Fixed Users are Impacted by Usage Limits Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 % Broadband HH > 500 GB % Mobile Users > 2 GB Global Western Europe Asia-Pacific Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa Latin America COUNTRY North America 7.8% 12.5% 5.8% 6.4% 5.2% 5.0% 28.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% 2.0%
  98. 98. 98© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Conclusion
  99. 99. 99© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2014–2019 Key Takeaways / Summary Global IP Traffic By 2019, global IP traffic will reach 168 EBs/per month (2.0 ZBs annually). Global Mobile Traffic By 2019, 14% of IP traffic will be carried over cell networks. Global Wi-Fi Traffic By 2019, Fixed Wi-Fi will generate 52% of global IP traffic. Global IP Video Traffic By 2019, over 80% of the world’s IP traffic will be video. Global Broadband Speeds By 2019, average broadband connection speed will more than double (20.3 Mbps to 42.5 Mbps). Global Devices/Connections By 2019, there will be 3.2 devices/ connections per capita globally. Global Internet Users By 2019, there will be 3.9 Billion global internet users, representing 51% of the global population. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  100. 100. 100© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Cisco VNI LATAM IP Forecast, 2014–2019 Key Takeaways / Summary LATAM IP Traffic By 2019, LATAM IP traffic will reach 12.9 EBs/per month (155 EBs annually). LATAM Mobile Traffic By 2019, 16% of IP traffic will be carried over cell networks. LATAM Wi-Fi Traffic By 2019, Fixed Wi-Fi will generate 61% of LATAM IP traffic. LATAM IP Video Traffic By 2019, over 82% of the LATAM IP traffic will be video. LATAM Broadband Speeds By 2019, average broadband connection speed will more than double (7.2 Mbps to 17 Mbps). LATAM Devices/ Connections By 2019, there will be 2.9 devices/ connections per capita in LATAM. LATAM Internet Users By 2019, there will be 371 Million LATAM internet users, representing 57% of the LATAM population. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
  101. 101. 101© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Cisco VNI Web Sites •  Press Release •  White Papers / FAQs •  Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa
  102. 102. 103© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet of Everything By 2019, More Than 2 Connected Home Modules Per Household On an Average 1,781 2,131 2,578 3,191 3,997 5,025 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Connected Home Connections (M)

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