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Insights on the shopping revolution

Fjord
Fjord

A point of view from service design consultancy, Fjord on the shopping revolution and the opportunities for retailers

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I‟ll take it!
   What we‟ve learned from the shopping revolution, and what‟s
   coming next
   July 2012




Slide 1 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
1890s: Stone‟s Store,
in Roselle Park, NJ,
becomes the first
shop to be lit by
Thomas Edison‟s
                                                                                          1916: Clarence Saunders opens
carbon filament light
bulbs                                                                            Piggly Wiggly, the first self-service grocery
                                                                                                       store, in Memphis, TN
                              1900: Mass-production of clothing
                              becomes commonplace as department
                              stores proliferate, selling ready-to-wear
                              items



                                                                              The last shopping
                                                                          revolution happened over
                                                                               100 years ago.


      Slide 2 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
Shopping will never be the same.

The High Street is changing. Where the last 50 years have seen a transition from small
local merchants to chains and megabrands, the next decade will bring a massive shift in
the opposite direction.
• Services will become as important as objects
• Shared and Pop-up retail will become commonplace
• Up to 30% of retail space will permanently disappear… and even more will radically
   change




Slide 3 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
We have entered a new era




Slide 4 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
Why not „The Retail
                                      Revolution‟?

                                      Because that‟s not how people
                                      think. And if businesses are to
                                      survive the revolution, they need to
                                      understand the human perspective.
                                      Humans don‟t “visit retail
                                      establishments.” Humans shop.

                                      Shopping doesn‟t just happen in
                                      shops, either. And in order to
                                      identify opportunities, we need to
                                      be able to see the whole picture of
                                      what shopping is and can be.




Slide 5 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
Shopping: the human perspective




Slide 6 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
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Insights on the shopping revolution

  • 1. I‟ll take it! What we‟ve learned from the shopping revolution, and what‟s coming next July 2012 Slide 1 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 2. 1890s: Stone‟s Store, in Roselle Park, NJ, becomes the first shop to be lit by Thomas Edison‟s 1916: Clarence Saunders opens carbon filament light bulbs Piggly Wiggly, the first self-service grocery store, in Memphis, TN 1900: Mass-production of clothing becomes commonplace as department stores proliferate, selling ready-to-wear items The last shopping revolution happened over 100 years ago. Slide 2 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 3. Shopping will never be the same. The High Street is changing. Where the last 50 years have seen a transition from small local merchants to chains and megabrands, the next decade will bring a massive shift in the opposite direction. • Services will become as important as objects • Shared and Pop-up retail will become commonplace • Up to 30% of retail space will permanently disappear… and even more will radically change Slide 3 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 4. We have entered a new era Slide 4 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 5. Why not „The Retail Revolution‟? Because that‟s not how people think. And if businesses are to survive the revolution, they need to understand the human perspective. Humans don‟t “visit retail establishments.” Humans shop. Shopping doesn‟t just happen in shops, either. And in order to identify opportunities, we need to be able to see the whole picture of what shopping is and can be. Slide 5 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 6. Shopping: the human perspective Slide 6 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 7. It‟s not a linear experience give up friends fit trends delivery cool quality look wait support price service returns Slide 7 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 8. Many variables = complex challenge ? What I‟m buying Personal factors Everyday purchases Cultural context Big ticket items Age and social status Long term investments Financial comfort and Clothing and accessories confidence Gifts Slide 8 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 9. Beyond retail: the shopping ecosystem Slide 9 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 10. 3 keys to understanding the revolution @ Online vs. offline People pay for Changing is a myth what makes them infrastructure is feel good changing the rules Slide 10 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 11. Thank you. The online/offline myth Slide 11 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 12. Online/offline: there is no such thing. Online/offline has not been a meaningful distinction for some time. Digital-ness is now ubiquitous - we carry the digital world around with us in our pockets. We can access it all the time, in shops and at home and on the street. @ Slide 12 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 13. Nearly 50% of US smartphone owners use mobiles in-store 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Call/text Compare Send Find Check Fill time in Check for Show Scan Check Not used for advice prices picture of another product check out location item to product opening mobile in product store reviews line deals personnel barcode times store Source: GP Bullhound Research, Mobile Commerce, September 2012 Slide 13 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 14. …and 53% have abandoned as a result 21% Found a better item online 30% Found a better NO YES price online 47% 53% 38% Found a better price in another store Source: GP Bullhound Research, Mobile Commerce, September 2012 Slide 14 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 15. From 3D to 2D Grocery shelves are displayed on screens in subway& QR codes Window-shopping stations. People make purchases by scanning codes. This “shop” is both online and offline – it looks like the real, 3D thing; it‟s located in a real, 3D place, and yet the commerce all takes place over Internet Protocol. Slide 15 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 16. The window is the shop eBay‟s Give-a-Toy shops enabled shoppers to scan QR codes from the shop window, to donate a toy to a child in need. The window display, in this case, is the shop. Similarly, more and more retailers are including QR codes in their window displays, which enables people to make a digital „wish list‟ from real-world items in real-world places. Slide 16 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 17. Shop? Who needs a shop? Like the glassware at the restaurant? Buy it. Fancy that dress Florence wore at last night‟s gig? Have it delivered to you today. The continued rise of semantic metadata and interconnected APIs mean that we‟ll be able to buy things wherever we see them – in real life, on television, anywhere. Slide 17 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 18. “Online” During in the real world In-store bar code scanning Customers in brick-and-mortar shops use smartphones to do price checks, look up reviews, add items to gift registries, or even purchase the item from another retailer and have it delivered straight to their home. Slide 18 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 19. During “Online” in the real world All Saints in-store kiosk for online ordering Some retailers, including the UK-based chain All Saints, offer an in-store kiosk (or in All Saints, iPad) where customers can order articles that aren‟t in stock at that location from their online store. This takes advantage of the customer‟s in- store urge to buy, and is far more immediate and effective than sending them to another location to make their purchase. It also introduces brick-and- mortar customers to the online property. Slide 19 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 20. During Augmented merchandise C&A has launched a pilot in Brazil of their “Fashion Like” in-store concept. Hangers contain a small display showing how many times that garment has been „liked‟ on facebook. Instead of scanning a code or launching an app, customers can see this data made manifest where it is most relevant. Slide 20 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 21. During “Online” in the real world PayPal Here Square PayPal Here, Sail and Square take online payment methods into the brick and mortar world (more on this later). Slide 21 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 22. Shopping goes During DIY Apple now allows customers to shop in stores without making any contact with staff unless they want to. The concept enables customers to explore the merchandise for as long as they like, make a decision (assisted or not), find the item and pay for it, all on their own. This gives the customer unprecedented freedom in shaping their own experience. Apple can do this because they own every piece of the system – the merchandise, the shop, the payment. Slide 22 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 23. After Whenever, where ver Online purchases returned in-store Many retailers allow customers to return online purchases to brick-and-mortar locations. This combines the convenience of buying online without the inconvenience of having to go to the post office for returns. Slide 23 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 24. Whenever, where ver The idea of buying in-store and getting home delivery is not new – appliance dealers have been using this system for decades. But the idea of buying something online and picking it up in- store is more recent, further blurring the lines between „online‟ and „offline‟ Slide 24 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 25. After Whenever, where ver Online registration & support for items purchased in brick & mortar shops It has become commonplace for consumer electronics, no matter where they are bought, to be registered online. Support, too, is delivered primarily through online means, with phone support often only available at a premium. Slide 25 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 26. Thank you. The feel-good factor “Money, if it does not bring you happiness, will at least help you be miserable in comfort.” - Helen Gurley Slide 26 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 27. There are some things money can‟t buy Slide 27 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 28. People pay for what makes them happy. Some people are happy with simply getting the best deal, but many are willing to pay a premium for better service Recognition and Loyalty Follow-through and recommendation Reward me for repeat support Know who I am and custom Resolve my problems what I like and address my complaints Slide 28 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 29. Great technology experiences are in demand 36% Want 36% vouchers & Find mobile location purchasing based frustrating, services but do it anyway 59% Would purchase more frequently 42% if the experience Would use were better mobile 42% checkout if available Are interested in mobile wallet services 40% Want QR & barcode scanners Source: GP Bullhound Research, Mobile Commerce, September 2012 Slide 29 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 30. Before Nice to see you again. Amazon home page with recommendations Amazon is perhaps the best- known example of recognition and recommendation – it is definitely one of the most widely cited examples in the online world. Slide 30 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 31. Before Where everybody knows your name Messaging from local merchant/ brick & mortar store/ call from the lady at the DKNY counter Personal service in local stores – for example, the shop owner who gives you a spontaneous 10% discount because you choose to buy two items when you only intended to buy one – can be quite powerful in driving loyalty. Services like Square, PayPal Here and Sail have the potential to facilitate and support this by giving merchants access to customers‟ purchase histories in their shops. Slide 31 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 32. Where everybody During knows your name Local merchants taking 10% off when you buy 2 pieces (because you came in only Local shop owners are also more likely intending to buy 1) to know their customers personally, building trust relationships that enable them to advise on purchases – this makes both parties feel better about the transactions, even though the goods may cost more. The best merchants will even call their regular customers when new and relevant merchandise arrives – this makes customers feel like VIPs and drives both store visits and loyalty. Slide 32 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 33. The Starbucks app is an excellent example of tying the full customer lifecycle together – from locating a shop to ordering to payment to loyalty, all in one well-designed package. Slide 33 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 34. VIP service, VIP After status Net-a-porter delivery service (guy in the suit, black boxes with ribbons, same day in Net-a-porter offers same-day delivery London) by liveried staff – a luxurious personal touch that makes customers feel better about the price tag of their merchandise. Slide 34 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 35. With you everywhere Uniqlo has extended its relationship with customers through a widely- loved alarm app, and encouraged ongoing interaction by awarding discounts to customers who tweet about their products. Slide 35 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 36. Bridging the expectation gap 20-40 year olds with less income than they‟d hoped to have are bridging the gap between expectation and reality by doing their everyday shopping at discounters and putting a large proportion of their disposable income toward high-end designer accessories. These are often purchased at outlet shops such as TK Maxx. Slide 36 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 37. Thank you. Portable infrastructure Slide 37 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 38. Banks take a backseat As mobile alternatives such as Square, Sail and PayPal Here gain traction in the market, virtually anyone can become a retailer. This enables proliferation of microbusinesses and also threatens more traditional infrastructure providers (banks, credit card companies) who have begun to fade into the background as these OTT players take the spotlight with consumers and merchants alike. This movement is reminiscent of the challenge faced by Telcos over the past half a decade, as manufacturers and OTT providers have captured customers‟ hearts through high-value services. Slide 38 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 39. The great equaliser A street market vendor can suddenly be equal to a high street brand like Topshop – access to affordable payment infrastructure enables the quality conversation to dominate, rather than the power lent by superior infrastructure and presence. Slide 39 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 40. Geofencing allows payment without taking anything out of your pocket. Slide 40 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 41. Customer or merchant? The distinction between customer and merchant is also blurred by this new infrastructure – anyone can be a consumer by day and a merchant by night, or vice versa. Slide 41 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 42. Reach out and touch someone Traditional traffic drivers like vouchers and coupons have also moved into the mobile domain, with location based services like Groupon and Foursquare, and social curation tools such as Pinterest. Slide 42 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 43. More choice, more pressure There is now a far greater range of payment choices for retailers as well as individuals. This puts further pressure on traditional service providers to innovate to drive value. Slide 43 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 44. Thank you. What do we do now? Slide 44 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 45. Beautiful seams, not “seamlessness” Some new shopping experiences are unnerving for customers – the absence of the “the altar of commerce” that is the till is confusing, leaving people wondering whether they‟ve actually paid for their purchases or not. This new behaviour could also cause other problems, as customers grow so accustomed to skipping the till that they do it even when there is no other technology in place. We must mitigate this by ensuring that customers are aware of the transitions as they take place. Total “seamlessness” is not ideal here – while the transitions should be smooth and not jarring, it is critical that customer/users always know what‟s happening and where they stand. Slide 45 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 46. Beware the uncanny valley This is a well-known concept in the robotics world, but it also applies to “smart” services. The myth is that the better a service knows me, the more conclusions it draws, the better my experience will be. But that‟s not true – beyond a certain point, the service stops being cool and starts to be creepy. It takes a huge effort to pull the service back out of the valley – and you may never regain the trust you‟ve lost. Slide 46 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 47. Where people are concerned, why is more important than what. It‟s not enough to know what your customers are doing – in order to know how best to respond, you need to understand why. Slide 47 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 48. Why isn‟t everyone more engaged? Less than 20% of mobile users engage with online retail. Why not more? 36% 23% Credit card info security concerns 48% Not easy to view product information Awkward shopping experience 18% Product information too limited 31% 20% Slow connection Takes too long Slide 48 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 49. It‟s a balancing act Single point of focus Focus on many areas at once Know „what‟ but not „why‟ Confusion The trick is to choose a framework of KPIs that work together to show you not just what your customers are doing, but why they might be doing it; not just how your business is performing, but where the opportunities lie to improve. Slide 49 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 50. Look at the system (not just at one part) For customers, the whole ecosystem works together to create the experience they think of as shopping. Slide 50 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 51. Look at the system (not just at one part) Understanding how the pieces of your ecosystem work together is the key to creating the best experience possible. Slide 51 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 52. When you put people first, great things can happen for business. Slide 52 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 53. Thank you. Opportunity Spaces “Entrepreneurs are simply those who understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity and are able to turn both to their advantage” - Niccolo Machiavelli Slide 53 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 54. From Shop to Showroom While Apple‟s new ultra-DIY shops have troubled some customers, they are indicative of an interesting shift – from „shop‟ environment to „showroom‟. The focus is no longer only on selecting product and paying for it; the focus is on experiencing the products, with or without assistance. Technology has opened the door to radical change in physical retail spaces. Without the constraints of the counter, the till, maybe even the merchandise, we are free to invent whatever kinds of space are best suited to connecting people to things they will love. Slide 54 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 55. My data earns me money As customers become more savvy about their data, new opportunities open for merchants to barter discounts or merchandise to access improved information. This means opportunity for deeper, more meaningful relationships with customers. Slide 55 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 56. Let me take my community with me Location based technology, social graphs and other metadata can be combined to give customers more control over who influences their buying decisions – leaving recommendations and reviews for friends in specific locations, attached to specific merchandise. Or, customers could choose to follow in the fashion footsteps of the stars they want to emulate - literally, in the physical world. Slide 56 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 57. Make it feel better to buy Many medium- and big-ticket items, from car seats to washing machines, are necessary but uninspiring purchases. Anyone who can make a more satisfying experience of these purchases will win a good deal of trust and affection from customers. Slide 57 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 58. Help me to aspire There are collections of items – such as home theatre or hi-fi equipment – that many customers continually and incrementally upgrade over longer periods of time. For those who are less technology-savvy, this can be a challenging process of reading reviews and specifications and asking friends and acquaintances for advice. Anyone who can help customers remember what they have and what it will work best with will certainly gain trust and goodwill. Slide 58 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 59. Remember: It‟s the system, not the part. Slide 59 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 60. The end. Slide 60 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential

Editor's Notes

  1. Photos: Light bulb: http://www.youtube.com/user/MrEdisonLightPiggly Wiggly: http://www.renaissanceconnection.org/Sweat shop: http://www.threadforthought.net/2011/03/29/fashion-factory-labor/Not since provisions moved out from behind the counter and the dawn of pret-a-porter with the dawn of the supermarket has there been so much change in the way people buy things. We have more choices than ever – not just goods and brands, but also ways and means of acquiring them. Digital, analog, pay now, pay later, keep it secret or make it public – all these and more have created a landscape that is far more complex and interesting than we could have imagined a mere decade ago.
  2. Imgsrc: http://blogs.courant.com/living_on_less/Target-BarcodeScanning2.JPG
  3. http://blog.ispira.com/upload/cf/cf004fdc76fa1a4f25f62e0eb5261ca3/f74ff295a261d0ccf56e97cee2d9c40d.jpg
  4. http://cdn.macworld.co.uk/cmsdata/features/3365591/29-06-AS-opener.jpg
  5. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hhQ_DybCZpA/TGV6CT9DeYI/AAAAAAAAAIQ/Kms8gBcqPJI/s1600/IMG00004-20100812-0852.jpg
  6. http://www.daniellefreni.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/thesource_helpsign.jpg
  7. http://luluabroad.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/store-b-vintage.jpg
  8. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_KnEPc1aMbWA/TFSkr53Bc_I/AAAAAAAAEDM/c1bFIglMv_I/s1600/SDC15722.JPGhttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_JL_Z4awEAic/TQkZyJ6qqzI/AAAAAAAADDo/aBG7Xmz2fIk/s1600/Aldi%2BHyde.jpg
  9. Pursuit of independent career paths and more fulfilling roles, people are turning to entrepreneurship to satisfy their professional needsConsumers want real, genuine and authentic interactions – reacting to the increase in technologySmall scale, finding new means of money – making, selling and raising funds - Etsy, Folksy, KickstarterMake money from what you have, - airbnb (rent your home)whipcar (rent your car)park at my house (rent parking space) Camp in my garden (rent your garden to campers) Monday to Friday (rent out your spare room) New attitudes toward work and taking the initiative to establish businesses as much to express their creative impulses as to make money . 75% of 20 – 30 year olds want to be entrepreneurs (according to BVA, French polling institute, 2010). Implications to Barclays
  10. Pursuit of independent career paths and more fulfilling roles, people are turning to entrepreneurship to satisfy their professional needsConsumers want real, genuine and authentic interactions – reacting to the increase in technologySmall scale, finding new means of money – making, selling and raising funds - Etsy, Folksy, KickstarterMake money from what you have, - airbnb (rent your home)whipcar (rent your car)park at my house (rent parking space) Camp in my garden (rent your garden to campers) Monday to Friday (rent out your spare room) New attitudes toward work and taking the initiative to establish businesses as much to express their creative impulses as to make money . 75% of 20 – 30 year olds want to be entrepreneurs (according to BVA, French polling institute, 2010). Implications to Barclays
  11. The ALTAR of payment
  12. Location remindersGoogle maps - Pull up a map when you need it, where you need itTranslate language, currency on the move, on the fly - whatever you need when you need it. Consumers value the services that allow them to do that. This behavior is boosted by a need for positive surprises, spontaneous discovery and relevance.Egg Drop – the smarter neighbourhood marketplace– bit like ebay but for your local area. Foursquare’s Radar alerts you if friends are getting together nearby, so you can meet upHyper local news platforms are emerging, with local papers in the UK and USA encouraging local people to submit news stories that would be missed by mainstream newsBakerTweet lets bakers tell the world that something fresh has just come out of the oven. Implications to Barclays