F22 U.S. Retail On Site Printed Output Projections 2009 2014 (2)

1,023 views

Published on

A quarterly update on the current state of U.S. retail photo printing and 5 year projections.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,023
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
27
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

F22 U.S. Retail On Site Printed Output Projections 2009 2014 (2)

  1. 1. U.S. Retail Photo Printing<br />2009-2014<br />U.S. Retail Photo Print Output 2009-2014<br />cover<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />1<br />
  2. 2. Report Objectives<br />To provide a comprehensive review of photo printed output produced in-store at retail outlets in the United States.<br />To cover only printed output.<br />To project printed output for the period 2009-2014 based on current volumes, current and likely trends, and currently available products.<br />2<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 2<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  3. 3. Situation Analysis - 1<br />Conventional1 print volume (film + digital) and revenue continues to fall.<br />Conventional digital print volume and revenue began to decline in 2009 and the decline will continue.<br />Walmart Stores, which enjoyed share leadership for numerous years, has slipped from the top position, replaced by the promotional drug chains Walgreens and CVS.<br />Personalized output continues to be the category growth opportunity for retailers.<br />Kiosk prints as a % of total prints will grow as retailers increasingly turn to lower-cost, lower-touch print solutions and as consumers opt for ever-easier, ever-more-robust product creation and instant gratification.<br />3<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 3<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  4. 4. Situation Analysis - 2<br />Transformation from “wet” chemical minilabs to “dry” ink, dye-sub, laser and xerographic replacement print platforms has begun (Walmart has completed more than ½ of their installed base to Fuji and Epson Inkjet and Xerox . Meijer and Duane Reade have hp ink and laser platforms. CVS and Target are rapidly updating with Kodak Apex dry solutions).<br />Seasonal demand spikes are a significant and increasing challenge for retailers as demand shifts from everyday conventional print demand to personalized products with primary demand concentrated from mid-November through late-December.<br />Focus required to identify and develop new output products with everyday demand.<br />(1) Conventional prints are defined as 1-sided (i.e. simplex) photo prints with no personalization<br />4<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 4<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  5. 5. Conventional and Personalized Photo Prints<br />Conventional Prints<br />4x6 prints from film or digital<br />All other print sizes printed in-store on 1-side with no personalization.<br />PersonalizedPrints*<br />Greeting Cards <br />Slimline <br />Folded <br />Photobooks<br /> Scrapbook/Album Pages<br /> Calendars <br />Calendars (simplex)<br /> Calendars (duplex) <br />Collages/Posters Banners<br /> Other<br />5<br />*The list is inclusive of all current popular printed products produced on-site. “Other “includes random personalized printed products currently printed. No effort is made to project results for currently unavailable products.<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 5<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  6. 6. Understated Projections<br />6<br />This study does not attempt to project sales generated by currently unavailable retail printed products, therefore, the projections for outlying years are undoubtedly understated.<br />It is reasonable to expect that manufacturers, service providers and retailers will collectively develop and deliver important new products over the next 5 years which will drive new streams of revenue resulting in a significantly larger personalized printed products opportunity than currently reflected in this study.<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 6<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  7. 7. 7<br />Total On-Site Photo Print Output <br />2009-2014(4x6 Equivalent Units - B)<br />The growth of personalized printed output is not yet on a trend to compensate fully for the loss of conventional print consumption.<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 7<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  8. 8. 8<br />Total On-Site Photo Print Revenue ($B) <br />2009-2014<br /><ul><li>The richer revenue from personalized output, however, should begin to drive higher category revenues and margins within 5 years.
  9. 9. By 2014 revenues from personalized printed products are likely to represent more than 50% of category print revenues. </li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 8<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  10. 10. 9<br />Retail Digital Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)<br /><ul><li>Total Conventional Digital Prints at retail began to decline in 2009 and that decline will continue.
  11. 11. Minilab prints decline by >40% over next 5 years while kiosk prints hold steady.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 9<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  12. 12. 10<br />Retail Digital Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)<br /><ul><li>Total Conventional Digital Prints at retail began to decline in 2009 and that decline will continue.
  13. 13. Minilab prints decline by >40% over next 5 years while kiosk prints hold steady.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 10<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  14. 14. 11<br />Total Retail Prints(Conventional + Personalized Prints 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)<br /><ul><li>Total Conventional Digital Prints at retail began to decline in 2009 and that decline will continue.
  15. 15. Minilab prints decline by >40% over next 5 years while kiosk prints hold steady.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 11<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  16. 16. 12<br />Instant Prints vs. Minilab Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equiv. Prints - B)<br /><ul><li>There are forces at work that advance the need for minilab printing (especially web-2-store printing, new personalized product possibilities, and the availability of informed staff).
  17. 17. There are, simultaneously, forces at work that limit the investment interest in minilabs (especially labor costs, operational complexities, and declining revenues).
  18. 18. With a declining market for conventional prints investment in new clerk supported print technology will be driven by a desire to capture share of new personalized output growth.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 12<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  19. 19. 13<br />Retail Digital Print Revenue ($B)(Conventional Prints)<br /><ul><li>With an average price per print commanding an ongoing premium the share of revenue from instant prints increases substantially as minilab demand for conventional prints declines.</li></ul>Kiosk =44%<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 13<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  20. 20. 14<br />Retail Digital Print Revenue ($B)(Conventional Prints)<br /><ul><li>Kiosk revenue share as % of total available category revenue will grow substantially as many retailers opt for low-cost, low-touch printing solutions and as busy, time starved consumers opt for instant gratification.
  21. 21. Revenue from self-service kiosk prints is projected to reach 44% of total by 2014.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 14<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  22. 22. 15<br />Retailer Share of Prints - 2009<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 15<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  23. 23. Seasonality of Print Revenue2014<br />16<br /><ul><li>Current personalized printed products are dominated by products with demand primarily from mid-November through late-December.
  24. 24. As the share of output from personalized printed output grows this trend threatens to shift even more volume to a narrow holiday window.
  25. 25. The popularity of photo merchandise, which is currently dominated by holiday gift giving increases the challenges of equipping and staffing this changing category.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 16<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  26. 26. 17<br />Personalized Photo PrintsShare of Revenue - 2009<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 17<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  27. 27. Wet vs. Dry PrintsB - Conventional Prints<br />18<br /><ul><li>Loss of film processing demand +
  28. 28. Growth of kiosk print preference +
  29. 29. Installation of dry minilab replacement technology =
  30. 30. Dry prints will rapidly begin to replace AgX prints over the next 5 years +
  31. 31. A majority of all personalized printed output will be dry.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 18<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  32. 32. Wet vs. Dry Prints% of Conventional Prints<br />19<br /><ul><li>Loss of film processing demand +
  33. 33. Growth of kiosk print preference +
  34. 34. Installation of dry minilab replacement technology =
  35. 35. Dry prints will rapidly begin to replace AgX prints over the next 5 years.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 19<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  36. 36. 20<br />Threats & Opportunities<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 20<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  37. 37. Quote<br />21<br />"We are very excited about the future of the industry and it's being fueled by the innovative retailers who are delivering specialized services to their local consumers that enable more creative, expressive story telling.  Images are being integrated in more forms of communication than ever before via Facebook, MySpace and camera phones. We are inspired by our leading edge retailers tapping into this and monetizing the benefits of transactions that go beyond  the simple 4" x 6" print.  We'd like to see more participation across the industry.   Our innovative technologies, flexible hardware  and some new product announcements we plan to make at PMA will enhance the fun for the consumers to tell their stories with images. "       <br />Lori Babigian<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 21<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  38. 38. Quote<br />22<br />“It is important to see the photo department through the eyes of this core [predominantly female] customer. It is not a photo center anymore; it’s a personal publishing center.”<br />Manny Almeida<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 22<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  39. 39. Quote<br />23<br />“The Industry will take a quantum leap forward, I have no doubt, when it is able to master this unique skill of delighting the customer, by giving her the experiences and the solutions that she craves – anytime, anywhere, and in any form!”<br />Miguel Adao<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 23<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  40. 40. Engines of Growth<br />24<br />Personalized Event Celebration Bundles<br />Home Decor<br />Commercial Image-Rich Printed Output<br />Retail Products with Output Components<br />Licensed Content for Consumer and Commercial Output<br />Delivering a select number of new high-demand products with year-long demand.<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 24<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  41. 41. New Revenue -Personalized Event Celebration Bundles<br />Birthday<br />Anniversaries<br />Family Gatherings<br />Class Reunions<br />In Remembrance<br />….and much more!<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 25<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />25<br />
  42. 42. New Revenue –Home Decor<br />Canvas Prints<br />Posters<br />Collages<br />Framed Prints<br />Etc.<br />PAGE 26<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />26<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />
  43. 43. New Revenue - Commercial Image-Rich Printed Output<br />Flyers<br />Menus<br />Direct Mail <br />Catalogs<br />Image-Rich Business Cards<br />Banners<br />Interior and Exterior Signs<br />Variable Data Advertising (circulars, handbills, etc.)<br />Variable Data Direct Mail Materials<br />….and much more!<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 27<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />27<br />
  44. 44. New Revenue - Retail Products with Output Components <br />Photo Albums & Software Bundles<br />Digital Scrapbook & Software Bundles<br />Collage Frame and Software bundles<br />Album, Scanner & Software Bundles<br />….and much more!<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 28<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />28<br />
  45. 45. New Revenue - Licensed Content for Consumer and Commercial Output<br />Disney Characters & Movie Releases)<br />Mattel<br />Hasbro<br />Martha Stewart<br />NFL<br />NBA<br />MLB<br />NASCAR<br />Warner Brothers (Characters & Movie Releases)<br />Pixar (Characters & Movie Releases)<br />Celebrities<br />Events (Festivals, Major Sports Events, Concerts, etc.)<br />….and Much More<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 29<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />29<br />
  46. 46. Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 30<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />30<br />About the Author<br />Frank Baillargeon is founder and president of [F/22] Consulting.<br />Please visit www.f22consulting.com for more information about the author or services available from [F/22] Consulting.<br />Contact: 208-939-3301<br />fjbaillargeon@f22consulting.com<br />

×