Matthew Fitzpatrick – April 2008 Tax, Tesco’s and Everything in Between Challenges to the UK Beer Industry
<ul><li>|Agenda| </li></ul><ul><li>Introduction The objective for this presentation </li></ul><ul><li>Issues in the Market Shift Towards Off Trade / Pressures on Margins / Smoking Ban </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in Consumer Behavior Home Consumption / Binge Drinking / Changing Taste of Consumers / Weight Control </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges for the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Summary </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities for the Future </li></ul>
Pints Per Day In Millions | The Decline Since 1979 | Pints Per Year In Billions
Pints Per Day In Millions | The Decline Since 1979 | Pints Per Year In Billions What are the factors that have contributed to the decline In beer sales, since 1979, and what challenges does the market face in the future?
| Shift Towards Off-Trade | According to the Campaign for Real Ale, Sainsbury's has been selling Carling lager for 54p a pint –( or £9.99 for a pack of 24 440ml cans. ) A 750ml bottle of the best known bottled water brand, Perrier, sells for the equivalent of 57p a pint. Daily Mail – Jan 2007
Lager – Mintel June 2007 UK lager market, on- versus off-trade split, by % value, 2001-07 | Shift Towards Off-Trade |
Lager – Mintel June 2007 UK lager market, on- versus off-trade split, by % value, 2001-07 | Shift Towards Off-Trade | Beer industry leaders believe beer sales in supermarkets and off-licenses will overtake those in Britain's pubs for the first time this year. Guardian March 13 th 2008
Big brewers such as Scottish & Newcastle and Greene King are assuming price rises this year of 25 per cent for malted barley, 150 per cent for hops, 50 per cent for apples, 20 per cent for glass bottles and the same for aluminium cans. Telegraph – March 2008 | Margins Under Pressure |
| Smoking Ban | A 7% drop in pub beer sales this year alone. "The smoking ban is reducing sales of beer in pubs and will continue to do so," said a spokesman.
| Smoking Ban | The British Beer & Pub Association estimates that four are shutting down every day and that the rate of closures is14 times faster than in 2005.
| Binge Drinking | Excise duty on alcohol has risen six percentage points above inflation. Duty on a pint of beer has risen by 4p* Since 1997, beer duty has risen by 27% while consumption has fallen by 11% ** “ Alastair Darling has just launched the £6.50 pint in time for the London Olympics. This will escalate pub closures, which are already at record levels. And further depress beer sales which have sunk by 1 million pints a day over the last 12 months alone.” BBPA Chief Executive Rob Hayward *** *guardian.co.uk, Wednesday March 12 2008 **The Guardian, Tuesday November 20 2007 ***www.beerandpub.com – British Beer and Pub Association
"This budget will do nothing to stop binge drinking, but it will lead to pub closures on a huge scale, widen the gap between supermarket and pub prices and encourage smuggling and cross-border shopping." | Binge Drinking |
| Changing Tastes of Consumers | Cider: growing by an average annual rate of 7% in volume terms and 10% in value terms between 2005-2010 Euro Monitor 2005 Over 70% of the population drink wine as consumers engage with wine brands through learning about their provenance and characteristics Lager – Mintel Report 2007 Wine duty, meanwhile, has increased by just 16%, while wine-drinking has gone up by 46%. It's a similar Guardian – November 2007
| Challenges for 2008 | World Cup 2006 : £285m was spent on beer during the tournament, a figure that will be badly hit by the failure of any of the home nations to qualify for this summer’s tournament in Austria and Switzerland.** * The Independent - Tuesday 21 st August 2007 **http://www.ldpbusiness.co.uk - March 2008 Earlier this summer, Scottish & Newcastle was the first FTSE 100 company to blame the rain for a slump in sales. *
| Summary | Issues in the Market Changes in Consumer Behaviour Challenges for the Future
| Opportunities for Beer Industry | <ul><li>The ‘New Pub Experience’ </li></ul><ul><li>NPD – ‘Provenance’ – ‘Premiumisation’ </li></ul><ul><li>Reposition - Lager </li></ul>