Forecasting tricks for Vail, CO (March 12, 2013)

1. Forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley Meteorologist Joel Gratz Photo: Connor Walberg, ActionPhotoSchool.com

2. Worst Year Best Year

3. Colorado SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal Mar 11, 2013 Laramie and North Platte 78 South Platte Fort Collins Yampa and White ! ! " $ # 76 ! ! Steamboat Springs 78 Ouray Current Snow Water Boulder Equivalent (SWE) Upper Colorado ! ! 69 Basin-wide Percent Headwaters Denver of 1981-2010 Median ( ! [ Glenwood Springs ! ! unavailable * 76 <50% " $ # 70 Aspen! ! 50 - 69% ! ! Grand Junction 70 - 89% Colorado Springs 90 - 109% Gunnison ! ! 110 - 129% 79 ! ! Gunnison Arkansas 130 - 149% Pueblo >=150% San Miguel, ! ! Dolores, Ouray 75 Animas and ! ! " $ # 25 * Data unavailable at time San Juan of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year 85 81 Alamosa ! ! Provisional Data Subject to Revision ! ! Durango Upper Rio Grande Miles 0 10 20 40 60 80 100 The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the current Prepared by the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/ compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on Based on data from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/ the first reading of the day (typically 00:00). Science contact: Jim.Marron@por.usda.gov 503 414 3047

4. Average Last year This year

6. Vail January 31, 2013

9. My calling since age 5... Joel Gratz, Blue Mountain, PA, 1986. Photo: Steve Gratz Joel Gratz, Aspen Highlands, CO, 2010. Photo: Ted Mahon

10. Copper October 31, 2012

11. CMH Galena British Columbia December 29, 2012

14. THANK YOU!!!!!

15. THANK YOU!!!!! December 2007 28 person email list 2008-2009 500 person email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews

23. How this presentation will help you:

24. How this presentation will help you: 1) Learn snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley

25. How this presentation will help you: 1) Learn snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley 2) Understand how to interpret the current weather situation

26. Is Colorado the toughest state to forecast? Joel Gratz | Meadow Mountain, CO | 2009-03-11

27. La Nina storm tracks Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

28. El Nino storm tracks Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

29. Normal Water Temperatures

30. La Nada storm tracks Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder

31. Weather Happens when moist air gets high

32. Weather Happens when moist air gets high 1

33. Weather Happens when moist air gets high 1 2

34. Weather Happens when moist air gets high 1 2 3

35. Weather Happens when moist air gets high “Weather happens” when moist air gets high. “Weather happens” when moist air gets high. “Weather happens” when moist air gets high. “Weather happens” when moist air gets high. “Weather happens” when moist air gets high.

36. Where’s the moisture?

37. Where’s the moisture? Lots of moisture (ocean source)

38. Where’s the moisture? Lots of moisture (ocean source) OK moisture (ocean + plants)

39. Where’s the moisture? Less moisture (land source) Lots of moisture (ocean source) OK moisture (ocean + plants)

40. Weather Happens when moist air gets high

41. Weather Happens when moist air gets high 1

42. Weather Happens when moist air gets high 1 2

43. Weather Happens when moist air gets high 1 2 3

44. Five ways to get high

45. Five ways to get high C is for convection.

46. Five ways to get high C is for convection. L is for low pressure.

47. Five ways to get high C is for convection. L is for low pressure. O is for orographic.

48. Five ways to get high C is for convection. L is for low pressure. O is for orographic. U is for undercut.

49. Five ways to get high C is for convection. L is for low pressure. O is for orographic. U is for undercut. D is for dynamic.

50. Pleaaasssseeeee Remember orographics orographics orographics orographics orographics orographics orographics orographics orographics orographics

51. Mountains = Precipitation Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

54. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

55. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

56. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

57. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

58. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

59. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

60. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Mtns Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

61. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Mtns Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

62. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Mtns N&S San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

63. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Mtns N&S San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

64. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Mtns N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

65. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Mtns N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

66. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

67. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

68. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

69. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Grand Mesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

70. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Ten Mile & Grand Mosquito Mesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

71. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Ten Mile & Grand Mosquito Mesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

72. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Gore Ten Mile & Grand Mosquito Mesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

73. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Flattops Gore Ten Mile & Grand Mosquito Mesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

74. Mountains = Precipitation Park Range Indian Peaks / RMNP Flattops Gore Ten Mile & Grand Mosquito Mesa Elk Sawatch Mtns Sangre de Christo N&S East San Juans San Juans Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado

75. The best (upslope) wind direction Steamboat RMNP Powderhorn Summit Co. Vail Aspen Crested Butte Telluride Silverton Wolf Creek

76. Vail: Northwest winds

77. Vail: Northwest winds Vail

78. Vail: Northwest winds Vail Beaver Creek

79. Vail: Northwest winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek

80. Vail: Northwest winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek Vail Pass

83. Beaver Creek: West winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek Vail Pass

84. Beaver Creek: West winds G or e Ra ng e Vail Beaver Creek Vail Pass

85. Snow to liquid ratio

86. Snow to liquid ratio 10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow

87. Snow to liquid ratio 10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow 15” snow = 1” liquid --> average

88. Snow to liquid ratio 10” snow = 1” liquid --> heavy snow 15” snow = 1” liquid --> average 20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

96. Moisture in the air 10F 0F Temperature >> colder

97. http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm

98. 20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow

99. 20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow • Lots of moisture

100. 20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow • Lots of moisture • Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F

101. 20” snow = 1” liquid --> blower pow • Lots of moisture • Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F • Not too much wind

102. Radar

103. Radar

104. Radar

106. Jamming the Radar Beam is blocked by the ﬁrst mountain and can’t “see” to the second mountain. 0.5 deg

107. Overshooting the snow If the radar is too far 20,000 ft Vail away, the beam can overshoot the snow 15,000 ft 12,000 ft

108. Overshooting the snow Denver Airport Grand Mesa Pueblo http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

109. Overshooting the snow Steamboat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

110. Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

111. Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Summit Co. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

112. Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

113. Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. Aspen http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

114. Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. Aspen Crested Butte http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

115. Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. Aspen Crested Butte Telluride http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

116. Overshooting the snow Steamboat RMNP Vail Summit Co. Aspen Crested Butte Telluride Wolf Creek http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

117. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/

118. Surface Observations

119. Webcams! March 11, 2013 8pm

122. What’s the forecast? To the internet!

123. Favorite Sites Twisterdata.com Meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Avalanche.state.co.us/index.php

129. Joel Gratz joel@opensnow.com

Forecasting tricks for Vail, CO (March 12, 2013)

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