This document discusses snow forecasting tricks for the Vail Valley. It begins by providing context on Colorado's complex weather patterns and how different conditions like La Nina, El Nino, and normal years impact storm tracks. It then covers key concepts like how weather occurs when moist air rises high in the atmosphere. Specific topics discussed in more detail include sources of moisture, the five main ways air can rise to create precipitation, and how mountains enhance precipitation through orographic lifting. The document emphasizes remembering orographics and provides examples of specific Colorado mountain ranges. It concludes by noting northwest winds typically provide the best upslope conditions for the Vail area.
3. Colorado
SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal
Mar 11, 2013 Laramie and North Platte
78 South Platte
Fort Collins
Yampa and White !
!
"
$
#
76
!
!
Steamboat Springs
78
Ouray
Current Snow Water Boulder
Equivalent (SWE) Upper Colorado
!
!
69
Basin-wide Percent Headwaters Denver
of 1981-2010 Median (
!
[
Glenwood Springs
!
!
unavailable *
76
<50%
"
$
#
70
Aspen!
!
50 - 69% !
!
Grand Junction
70 - 89%
Colorado Springs
90 - 109% Gunnison !
!
110 - 129%
79 !
!
Gunnison
Arkansas
130 - 149%
Pueblo
>=150% San Miguel, !
!
Dolores, Ouray
75
Animas and !
!
"
$
#
25
* Data unavailable at time San Juan
of posting or measurement
is not representative at this
time of year 85 81
Alamosa
!
!
Provisional Data
Subject to Revision !
!
Durango
Upper Rio Grande
Miles
0 10 20 40 60 80 100
The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the current Prepared by the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center
snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/
compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on Based on data from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/
the first reading of the day (typically 00:00). Science contact: Jim.Marron@por.usda.gov 503 414 3047
24. How this presentation will help you:
1) Learn snow forecasting
tricks for the Vail Valley
25. How this presentation will help you:
1) Learn snow forecasting
tricks for the Vail Valley
2) Understand how to
interpret the current
weather situation
26. Is Colorado the toughest
state to forecast?
Joel Gratz | Meadow Mountain, CO | 2009-03-11
27. La Nina storm tracks
Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
28. El Nino storm tracks
Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
35. Weather Happens
when moist air gets high
āWeather happensā when moist air gets high.
āWeather happensā when moist air gets high.
āWeather happensā when moist air gets high.
āWeather happensā when moist air gets high.
āWeather happensā when moist air gets high.
51. Mountains = Precipitation
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
52. Mountains = Precipitation
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
53. Mountains = Precipitation
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
54. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
55. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
56. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
57. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
58. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
59. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
60. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
61. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
62. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
N&S
San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
63. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
N&S
San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
64. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
65. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
66. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
67. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
68. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk Sawatch
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
69. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Grand
Mesa
Elk Sawatch
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
70. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Ten Mile &
Grand
Mosquito
Mesa
Elk Sawatch
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
71. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Ten Mile &
Grand
Mosquito
Mesa
Elk Sawatch
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
72. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Gore
Ten Mile &
Grand
Mosquito
Mesa
Elk Sawatch
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
73. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range
Flattops
Gore
Ten Mile &
Grand
Mosquito
Mesa
Elk Sawatch
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
74. Mountains = Precipitation
Park Range Indian Peaks /
RMNP
Flattops
Gore
Ten Mile &
Grand
Mosquito
Mesa
Elk Sawatch
Mtns
Sangre de
Christo
N&S East
San Juans San Juans
Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
75. The best (upslope) wind direction
Steamboat RMNP
Powderhorn Summit Co.
Vail
Aspen
Crested Butte
Telluride
Silverton
Wolf Creek