2013 Weekly Markets14th, n PerspectivesJanuary For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
Weekly SummaryAt the ECB meeting’s press conference, Mario Draghi In the US, American Express surprised the marketseemed more hawkish. Now, the market believe that a with an earlier that expected profit release. Alcoarate cut is less likely in the next few months. EURUSD announced a relatively upbeat 2013 guidance.has rallied strongly on the news. In Japan, Mr. Abe announced a JPY10tr fiscalMeanwhile, Spain held last week its first bond stimulus package. According to the local press, theauction of 2013. The country raised €5.8bn vs. €5bn BoJ and the government will establish cooperationtargeted. The 10yr Spanish bond finished the week in order to set a 2% inflation target.below 5%. Given current market momentum,investors seem to believe that Spain no longer will In Portugal, the domestic banking sector finishedneed to trigger OMT in Q1 2013. The Spanish Treasury the week with impressive gains. An IMF reportsaid that it plans to issue a total of €215bn to €230bn was released pointing to various areas of reformworth of bonds in 2013. for the Portuguese public sector and presented several proposals for the government to cut €4bnLast week was a positive one for the European (2% of GDP) in public spending. Jerónimo MartinsBanking sector. Sentiment in the sector was helped by released in-line Q4 2012 sales. Its stock pricethe headlines suggesting that the Basel Committe had surged 6.1%, its biggest daily gain in five months.relaxed bank liquidity coverage rules and pushed outthe timetable for its implementation. Moreover, BES JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bankand Banco Popular tapped the bond market. Both of America, Citigroup, Intel and GE will releaseissues suggest a progressive reopening of the results this week. In Europe, Carrefour willwholesale funding market for Iberian banks. announce Q4 2012 sales.
Euro-zone: Unemployment rate German industrial productionat a new record high rises in November• The euro area unemployment rate increased • German industrial output increased 0.2% m/m, 0.1pp to a new all-time high in November 2012 after shrinking for three consecutive months, at 11.8%; significantly below consensus (1.0% m/m);• The number of unemployed in Germany is at its • The figures were depressed by a significant drop in low since October 1991. The unemployment energy output. Industrial production in Germany’s rate was unchanged at 5.4%; construction sector went up 1.0% m/m, but the• In Spain, the unemployment rate rose 0.4pp to manufacturing component only rose 0.4% m/m. an all-time high at 26.6%. The youth Consumer durables slumped 2.2%, suggesting unemployment rate increased from 55.8% in weakness in the consumer activity. October to 56.5% in November. Euro-zone Unemployment rate (%) German Industrial Production and12 11.8 Manufacturing PMI 65 2011 Industrial Production 60 15 1010 55 5 50 0 9 45 -5 -10 8 40 -15 35 -20 7 30 -25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6 Manufacturing PMI (LHS) Industrial Production (y/y, %, RHS) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: Eurostat Source: Bundesbank, Bloomberg
Banque de France business Spain: Exports continue toclimate rises in December 2012 perform well• In December 2012, the Banque de France • November 2012 data on sales for large firms (2/3 industrial sentiment indicator rose to 95 from of total Spanish firm sales) were released. Sales 91 a month earlier. This index reached its were down 6.4% y/y, with the sharpest fall being highest level since March 2012. It suggests that registered in the construction sector; the recovery in industrial activity might be • Domestic sales continue to contract, while exports gathering pace; by large firms are growing at a healthy pace;• Activity in the service sector remained • Nominal wages fell for the third consecutive unchanged at 91 in December 2012; month (-0.1% y/y in November 2012);• The Banque de France expects Q4 2012 GDP to • Domestic demand seems to continue experiencing contract by 0.1% q/q. a contraction. Spain: Monthy sales by large firms (y/y, %) 120 Banque de France Business Sentiment Total Sales Domestic Sales Total Exports Total Imports Jan-12 -3.9 -5.1 1.7 -0.7 110 Fev-12 -5.2 -6.0 -1.9 -10.2 100 Mar-12 -6.9 -8.1 -1.9 -13.0 Abr-12 -7.3 -9.0 0.3 -8.3 90 Mai-12 -5.9 -7.3 0.1 -13.5 Jun-12 -2.1 -2.7 0.8 -8.3 80 Jul-12 -6.5 -8.8 4.3 -3.1 Ago-12 -1.5 -2.3 2.0 -5.6 70 Industries Services Set-12 -10.2 -11.8 -3.0 -10.6 Out-12 -7.7 -9.9 2.5 -4.5 60 Nov-12 -6.4 -8.5 2.6 -8.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Spanish Tax AgencySource: Banque de France
ECB: More upbeat than expected Spain: Q3 2012 national accounts• The ECB left its interest rates unchanged last were released week, including the main refinancing rate at • The savings rate for households reached 7.0% of 0.75% and the deposit rate at 0.0%; disposable income (9.1% in Q3 2011) and• According to Mario Draghi, no Council disposable income fell by -2.1% y/y, reflecting members requested a rate cut at the meeting. falling wages and higher taxes; In December, some Governing Council • In Q3 2012, the general government deficit/GDP members had voted for a cut in interest rates; ratio excluding net capital transfers was -8.6%• The ECB expects the economy to stay weak at (-8.7% in Q2 and -8.8% in Q1). The 2012 year-end the beginning of 2013 with a gradual recovery target is 6.3% of GDP; later in the year; • Non-financial corporations have seen 11.8%• President Draghi’s comments in the Q&A growth in disposable income, suggesting that NFCs session were more upbeat than what was are cutting costs rapidly. expected by the market. He listed a number of Spain Monthly Current Account (€bn) 2 positive developments, including the 0 stabilization of some leading indicators, the -2 improvement in financial market confidence, a -4 fall in current account imbalances, and a fall in -6 TARGET2 balances; -8 -10• The press statement asked for “further progress -12 in fiscal consolidation” and for “further -14 structural reforms…”. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bloomberg
Portugal: Unemployment rate Portugal: Government isremained stable at 16.3% expected to focus on expenditure• In November, the unemployment rate in Portugal remained stable at 16.3%; cuts• The unemployment rate for youths (under 25) • The legality of the 2013 Budget is being declined from 39.0% in October to 38.7% in challenged with several requests sent to the November; Constitutional Court to judge whether they are• GDP contraction and ongoing fiscal against the Constitution; consolidation continue to weigh on labor • In a comment to the Jan-Nov 2012 fiscal data, the market conditions. independent parliamentary fiscal watchdog said that the 2012 government budget deficit target (5% of GDP) would only be possible via one-off Portugal Unemployment Rate 40 18 measures. Tax revenues continue lagging behind 17 government estimates; 35 16 15 • An IMF report released last week suggested 30 14 various areas of reform for the Portuguese public 13 25 12 sector and presented several proposals for the 11 government to cut €4bn (2% of GDP) in public 20 10 spending. The report said that the wage bill and 9 15 8 pension spending would need to be reduced in 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 order to generate the government’s spending Unemployment Rate for youths (under 25) (%, LHS) Total Unemployment Rate (%, RHS) reduction goals.Source: Eurostat
Portugal: Construction sector Portugal: Domestic demandremains depressed remains weak • The industrial new orders index fell by -5.0% y/y in• The index of production in construction fell by November 2012, following a reduction of -5.2% in -19.3% y/y in the quarter ending in November October 2012. The domestic index decreased by 2012, down from -18.0% in October 2012. -15.0% y/y (-16.3% y/y in October 2012), while Employment and wages in the sector registered new orders from the external market rose 2.2% y/y change rates of -19.0% and -20.3% in y/y (3.0% y/y in the previous month); November, respectively; • Portuguese banks’ NPL ratio rose from 9.97% to• Exports and imports of goods decreased by 10.2% in November 2012 (the highest level since -0.1% y/y and -3.6% y/y, respectively, in the 1997), in the corporate segment, while credit quarter ended in November 2012. The deficit in granted to companies fell by -8% y/y. In the the trade balance fell by €511mn; household segment, the NPL ratio rose to 3.8%, while credit granted fell by -4% y/y. Domestic Industrial New Orders (y/y) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistical Office of Portugal Source: Statistical Office of Portugal
Sharp widening in US trade US budget deficit narrows bydeficit in November $86bn relative to year-ago levels• The trade deficit increased to a seven-month • The NFIB index of small business optimism rose high of $48.7bn in November (above de to 88.0 from 87.5 in December, only a small consensus forecast at $43.1bn), from $42.1bn rebound after the decline from 93.1 in October, in the previous month; probably reflecting concerns about the• In real terms, the deficit jumped to a four-year economic outlook due to the “fiscal cliff”; high of $51.9bn, from $46bn in October; • The US federal budget deficit was $0.3bn in• Nominal exports rose by 1.0% m/m and non-oil December 2012, $86bn less than the December imports increased by 4.4% m/m; 2011 print. This brings the deficit to $292bn for• The bilateral deficit with China decreased Q1 of FY2013, a 9.1% decrease relative to the slightly in November, but it increased sharply same period in FY2012, largely driven by higher with the Euro-zone, particularly Germany. revenues. Monthly International Trade Balance ($bn) US Monthly Treasury Federal Budget ($bn) 0 200-10 Nominal 150-20 Real 100 50-30 0-40 -50-50 -100-60 -150-70 -200-80 -250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: US Dept. of Commerce Source: US Treasury
Japan: Abe administration China: December money andannounces a JPY10tr emergency credit supply below expectations • CPI rose to 2.5% y/y (consensus: 2.3%), followingeconomic stimulus package 2.0% y/y in November, reflecting higher food• During the recent election, the LDP promised to inflation; implement a first emergency economic stimulus • December money and credit supply was below package right away and implement new market expectations. New CNY loans were economic policies; Rmb454.3bn in December 2012 (consensus:• Since taking office on December 26th, the Abe Rmb550bn); administration has been aggressively moving • The December trade data was encouraging. with fiscal and monetary policy initiatives with Exports up 14.1% y/y (consensus: 5.0%). Imports the goal of winning a majority in the July 2013 rose 6.0% y/y (consensus: 3.5%) upper house elections. Japan Monthly Non-adjusted Current Account Balance China CPI Inflation (%) 3,500 (JPYbn) 10 3,000 8 2,500 6 2,000 1,500 4 1,000 2 500 0 0 -500 -2-1,000 -4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: MoF Source: NBS
PSI20 weekly review• BPI (BPI PL), BCP (BCP PL) and BES (BES PL) were the main winners last week in the PSI20 Portuguese stock benchmark index. BES has announced it has issued €500mn 5-year bonds with a 4.75% coupon at mid swap + 400bps. This is another signal of progressive reopening of wholesale funding markets to Portuguese banks. Moreover, Portuguese banks funding from the ECB stood at €52.78bn at the end December 2012. This represents a decline of €1.82bn from the €54.61bn registered in the previous month;• Mota-Engil (EGL PL), the Portuguese construction company, rose more than 9% over last week. Mr. Jorge Coelho resigned as Chairman of the Executive Committee and Vice Chairman of the company. The new CEO, Mr. Gonçalo Martins (former CFO), gave an interview to the local press saying that the company will continue following the strategic plan already announced. The group’s growth remains focused in Africa and Latam;• Portugal Telecom (PTC PL)’s shares increased 8.9%. The Brazilian Development Bank has approved a loan of BRL5.4bn to Oi to support the company’s investment plans for the 2012-14 period. The project includes investments in expanding and improving the capacity of the broadband network, fixed and mobile, cable TV infrastructure, and investments in information technology. Source: Bloomberg
Last week’s market highlights Ford (F US) Share Price ($) 20• Ford (F US)’s stock price increased 3.2% over last week. 18 The automaker announced that it will double its 16 shareholder dividend. Ford raised its quarterly dividend to 14 $14.00 $0.10 per share from $0.05 per share, which raises the 12 annual payout to $1.5bn from $762mn; 10• American Express (AXP US) rose 2.73%. The company pre- 8 6 announced in-line Q4 2012 earnings and a restructuring 2010 2011 2012 American Express (AXP US) Stock Price ($) plan including a $400mn restructuring charge given 60 $61.24 changing industry dynamics, a $342mn rewards related 56 liability adjustment and a $153mn charge for 52 reimbursements. Full earnings will be released after the 48 close on January 17th; 44• Nokia (NOK1V FH) pre-announced positively on Thursday. 40 The company indicated that faster than expected cost cuts 2011 2012 Nokia (NOK1V FH) Daily Stock Price Changes (%) 2013 allowed a material beat in Networks. Nokia expects 13- 12 10.8 10 15% operating margins vs. Consensus 8%. Devices showed 8 6 a narrower loss, driven by higher Asha volumes and lower 4 2.2 1.7 opex. Nokia sees Q4 operating margin of 0-2% vs. 2 0 Consensus -6%. Q4 2012 Devices & Services sales were -2 -4 -2.5 €3.9bn, vs. Consensus €3.8bn. Total devices volume -6 -6.2 -8 reached 86.3mn units vs. Consensus 89mn. 7-Jan Source: Bloomberg 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan
What we are watching this week: Event Date Hour (GMT) Survey Prior• Euro-zone industrial production for November is due Public Holiday, Japan 14-Jan Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on US Economy in Atlanta 14-Jan 21:00 Monday and is expected to improve to -3.1% y/y Industrial Production nsa y/y, Italy 14-Jan 09:00 -0.3% Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda y/y, Euro-Zone 14-Jan 10:00 -3.1% -3.6% (from -3.6% in the previous month). German GDP Machine Tool Orders y/y, Japan 15-Jan 06:00 -21.3% CPI y/y, Germany 15-Jan 07:00 2.1% 2.1% annual data for 2012 will be release on Tuesday; GDP y/y NSA, Germany 15-Jan 08:00 0.8% 3.0%• Final December inflation data for Germany, Italy and Consumer Price Index y/y, Spain CPI - EU Harmonized y/y, Italy 15-Jan 15-Jan 08:00 09:00 2.9% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6% Spain is due Tuesday and is likely to be unchanged CPI y/y, UK Euro-Zone Trade Balance, Euro-Zone 15-Jan 15-Jan 09:30 10:00 2.7% 10.0B 2.7% 10.2B from its flash estimates. Final December inflation Retail Sales y/y, Brazil Empire Manufacturing, US 15-Jan 15-Jan 11:00 13:30 8.10% 0.0 9.10% -8.1 data for the Euro-zone should be released Advance Retail Sales, US 15-Jan 13:30 0.2% 0.3% Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas, US 15-Jan 13:30 0.4% 0.7% Wednesday. It is expected to remain unchanged Producer Price Index y/y, US 15-Jan 13:30 1.4% 1.5% Business Inventories, US 15-Jan 15:00 0.3% 0.4% from its earlier estimate of 2.2% y/y; EU27 New Car Registrations, Euro-Zone 16-Jan 07:00 -10.3% Trade Balance (Total) (Euros), Italy 16-Jan 09:00 2660M 2452M• In the UK, the CPI, RPI, and PPI should be disclosed Euro-Zone CPI y/y, Euro-Zone 16-Jan 10:00 2.2% 2.2% Consumer Price Index y/y, US 16-Jan 13:30 1.8% 1.8% Tuesday. December retail sales data is due Friday Industrial Production, US 16-Jan 14:15 0.3% 1.1% Capacity Utilization, US 16-Jan 14:15 78.5% 78.4% and retail sales ex auto and fuel are expected to NAHB Housing Market Index, US 16-Jan 15:00 48.0 47.0 increase by 2.0% y/y; U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book ECB Publishes Monthly Report, Euro-Zone 16-Jan 17-Jan 19:00 09:00• In the US, retail sales ex autos and fuel (due Housing Starts, US Building Permits, US 17-Jan 17-Jan 13:30 13:30 890K 905K 861K 899K Tuesday) are expected to increase by 0.4% m/m, Initial Jobless Claims, US Philadelphia Fed., US 17-Jan 17-Jan 13:30 15:00 370K 6.0 371K 8.1 following 0.7% m/m in the previous month. Housing Real GDP y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 7.8% 7.4% Industrial Production y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 10.2% 10.1% starts, housing permits and the housing market Retail Sales y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 15.0% 14.9% Industrial Production y/y, Japan 18-Jan 04:30 -5.8% index are expected to increase. The December CPI Capacity Utilization m/m, Japan 18-Jan 04:30 1.6% Industrial Orders n.s.a. y/y, Italy 18-Jan 09:00 -0.1% will be released Wednesday. It should remain Industrial Sales n.s.a. y/y, Italy 18-Jan 09:00 -4.7% Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel y/y, UK 18-Jan 09:30 2.0% 2.0% unchanged (1.8% y/y) from the previous month. U. of Michigan Confidence, US 18-Jan 14:55 75.0 72.9 Source: Bloomberg, Fincor
Next Week Preview: Economics US Adjusted Retail Sales "Control Group" (m/m)• The provisional estimate for the headline of the 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% January’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence 0.6% 0.5% is expected to be released on Friday (14:55 GMT). The 0.3% last minute “fiscal cliff” deal could have had an impact 0.1% on sentiment. Moreover, gas prices have decreased 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% and equity prices rose. Nevertheless, the expiration of -0.4% -0.3% the payroll tax cut is going to hit all working individuals Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 and could penalize consumer confidence; Source: US Census Bureau US Consumer Confidence Indices• The Empire State Index is due Tuesday (13:30 GMT), 120 100 100 90 while the Philly Fed Index should be released Thursday 80 80 (15:00 GMT). Both survey could reflect the deal to 60 70 avert the “fiscal cliff”. However, business confidence in 40 60 early January will probably also take into account that 20 50 the debt ceiling stand-off is continuing; 2007 2008 2009 Conference Board (RHS) 2010 2011 2012 University of Michigan (LH S)• US Retail Sales will be announced on Tuesday (13:30 Source: Conference Board; U. of Michigan Survey Research Center Germany: Annual Real GDP Growth GMT). The ICSC chain stores sales suggest that 6% 3.7% spending rose in December; 4% 3.0% 2%• The focus for the weak in the Euro-zone could be the 0% release of German GDP annual data for 2012. -2% Consensus expect it to print at 0.8% y/y, down from -4% 3.0% in 2011. -6% 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 -5.1% 2011 Source: German Federal Statistical Office
Next Week Preview: Earnings season in Portugal and GovernmentDebt Issuance Calendar Jerónimo Martins announced Q4 France and Spain will be the 2012 Trading Statement highlights of the week• The company reported Q4 2012 sales in line • Portugal will redeem €1.3bn of BT on Friday. with consensus. Polish LfL sales grew 6.4%. The Next weeks Selected Bonds and T-Bills Supply group opened 120 Biendronka stores in Q4 Issue Country Date Amount Hour (GMT) BTF Apr 2013 France 14-Jan €3.2-3.6bn taking the total to 2125; BTF Jun 2013 France 14-Jan €1.2-1.6bn• The Portuguese earnings season will continue T-Bills Apr 2013 BTF Jan 2014 France US 14-Jan 14-Jan €1.6-2bn $32bn with Galp’s trading update on January 21st. T-Bills Jul 2013 (new) US 14-Jan $28bn Letras Jan 2014 Spain 15-Jan Company Event Date Letras Jun 2014 Spain 15-Jan Galp Trading Update 21-Jan T-Bills Feb 2013 US 15-Jan Sonae Trading Update 23-Jan Portucel FY12 Results 29-Jan Bund 15 Feb 2023 (new) Germany 16-Jan €5bn 10:30 BPI FY12 Results 30-Jan Bonos 3.75% 31 Oct 2015 Spain 17-Jan 09:30 BES FY12 Results 5-Fev Bonos 4.50% 31 Jan 2018 Spain 17-Jan 09:30 Semapa FY12 Results 7-Fev Obligaciones 4.70% 30 Jul 2041 Spain 17-Jan 09:30 BCP FY12 Results 8-Fev After-Market BTAN 2.50% 15 Jan 2015 France 17-Jan 09:50 Galp FY12 Results 11-Fev Before-Market OAT 3.75%25 Apr 2017 France 17-Jan €7-8bn 09:50 Jerónimo Martins FY12 Results 27-Fev OAT 1.00% 25 May 2018 (new) France 17-Jan 09:50 Zon FY12 Results 27-Fev OATei 0.25% 25 Jul 2018 France 17-Jan 10:50 Sonae Indústria FY12 Results 27-Fev OATi 1.30% 25 Jul 2019 France 17-Jan €1.3-1.7bn 10:50 EDP Renováveis FY12 Results 28-Fev Sonaecom FY12 Results 7-Mar OATei 1.85% 25 Jul 2027 France 17-Jan 10:50 REN FY12 Results 7-Mar Next weeks Selected Bonds and T-Bills redemptions Altri FY12 Results 8-Mar Issues Country Date Amount Hour (GMT) Cofina FY12 Results 8-Mar BTAN 3.75% France 12-Jan €17.7bn Sonae FY12 Results 13-Mar After-Market BOT (3m) Italy 14-Jan €3bn Mota Engil FY12 Results 14-Mar BOT (12m) Italy 14-Jan €8.5bn EDP FY12 Results 15-Mar After-Market BTF France 17-Jan €8bn ESFG FY12 Results 15-Mar Letras Spain 18-Jan €5.6bn Portugal Telecom FY12 Results 28-Mar BT Portugal 18-Jan €1.3bn Banif FY12 Results n.a. Source: Bloomberg, Companies information Source: Fincor
Next Week Preview: European and US Corporate CalendarCarrefour is expected to release US: The Financial sector willQ4 2012 sales on Thursday probably be the highlight• Carrefour’s LfL sales growth (ex-fuel and calendar) • JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, is expected to be negative for hypermarkets in Bank of America and Citigroup will release France. Will the Detroit Auto Show (January, 15th- results this week; 16th) be a catalyst for the european sector? • Intel and GE will also be closely followed byCountry Company Event Time (GMT) Ticker (Bloomberg) investors.Monday, 14 JanuaryUK Taylor Wimpey PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 TW/ LN Company Event Time (GMT) Ticker (Bloomberg)Tuesday, 15 January Monday, 14 JanuarySwitzerland Geberit AG Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:00 GEBN VX PPG Industries Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release PPG USUK Burberry Group PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update 07:00 BRBY LN Tuesday, 15 JanuaryUK Ashmore Group PLC Q2 2013 Trading Update 12:00 ASHM LN Lennar Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening LEN USAustria Telecom Austria Capital Markets Day TKA AV Forest Laboratories Inc Q3 2013 Earnings Release Before Market Opening FRX USFrance Casino Guichard Perrachon SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 17:15 CO FPSwitzerland Lindt & Sprungli FY Trading Statement LISN SW Linear Technology Corp Q2 2013 Earnings Release LLTC USUK Michael Page International Q4 Trading Statement MPI LN Wednesday, 16 JanuarySweden Hennes & Mauritz AB December 2012 Trading Update HMB SS Charles Schwab Corp/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening SCHW USUK Rio Tinto PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update RIO LN US Bancorp Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening USB USFrance Aeroports de Paris December 2012 Trading Update ADP FP Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release 11:30 BK USGermany Fraport AG December 2012 Trading Update FRA GR JPMorgan Chase & Co Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:00 JPM USWednesday, 16 January Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:30 GS USUK Experian PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update 07:00 EXPN LNGermany Metro AG Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 MEO GR eBay Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release After Market Close EBAY USDenmark Chr Hansen Holding A/S Q1 2013 Earnings Release 07:00 CHR DC Thursday, 17 JanuaryUK Barratt Developments PLC Q2 2013 Trading Update 08:00 BDEV LN BlackRock Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening BLK USThursday, 17 January UnitedHealth Group Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening UNH USNetherlands Koninklijke Ahold NV Q4 2012 Trading Update 05:45 AH NA Fifth Third Bancorp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 11:30 FITB USFrance EADS 2012 year-end Airbus press conference EAD FP Bank of America Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:00 BAC USBelgium Delhaize Group SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:00 DELB BB Citigroup Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release 13:00 C USNetherlands ASML Holding NV Y2012 Earnings Release 06:00 ASML NASwitzerland SGS FY Results SGSN VX Capital One Financial Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 21:05 COF USFrance Carrefour SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:30 CA FP Intel Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release After Market Close INTC USUK African Barrick Gold PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 ABG LN Friday, 18 JanuaryUK Mothercare Q3 Sales MTC LN General Electric Co Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening GE USUK Aberdeen Asset Management PLC Q1 2013 Trading Update 08:00 ADN LN Johnson Controls Inc Q1 2013 Earnings Release 12:00 JCI USFrance Remy Cointreau SA Q3 2013 Trading Update 08:30 RCO FP Morgan Stanley Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:15 MS USFrance Accor SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 16:45 AC FP Schlumberger Ltd Q4 2012 Earnings Release SLB USUK Booker Group PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update BOK LNUK Premier Oil PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update PMO LN Consolidated Edison Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release ED USUK Associated British Foods PLC Q1 2013 Trading Update ABF LN State Street Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release STT USSource: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Next Week Preview: Lower Saxony Elections and Idea of the weekLower Saxony to hold elections Idea of the Week: Acerinox • The acquisition of ThyssenKrupp’s stainless steelon January 20th unit by Outokumpu shows that the• The week will end with the state parliamentary consolidation in the European sector is moving election in Lower Saxony, Germany’s fourth biggest forward; federal state, on Sunday, January 20th; • Acerinox (ACX SM) continues trying to reduce its• It should be the last German state to go to the gearing; polls ahead of the General Election at the end of • Capacity expansion in Malaysia will allow the September; company to target new customers in the region;• The state is governed by a CDU/FDP coalition since • H2 2012 showed weaker than expected 2008, a replica of the current coalition at national conditions in both the US and European level; Markets. A moderate restocking could support• Chancellor Angela Merkel’s position at the national the stock in Q1 2013. level is still very strong, in contrast to her SPD rival. 120 Acerinox vs. IBEX35 Index 110 100 90 80 70 60 1 Ja n 2012 = 100 50 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Source: Infratest dimap Source: Bloomberg Acerinox IBEX35 Index
Charts we are watching• The ECB statement was more hawkish that expected. Now, the market seems to believe that, unless there’s a significant fall in sentiment, the ECB is unlikely to cut the refi rate in the near-term. Moreover, 10-year sovereign bond yields on the Euro periphery continue to fall. Both factors have supported the Euro/USD exchange rate that reached 1.3343 at the end of last week. But, with the euro area economy expected to remain weak at the beginning of 2013, a higher Euro/USD will not provide much help to the gradual recovery that is expected later in the year. Source: Bloomberg 140 BES and Banco Popular Relative Performance• Last week, BES has announced that it issued €500mn 5- 120 year bonds with a 4.75% coupon at mid swap +400bps. Moreover, the bank is planning to issue further bonds 100 BES this year in order to reduce its reliance on ECB funding. 80 Banco Popular Banco Popular announced that it has issued €750mn 2.5- year bonds with a 4.125% coupon at mid swap +362bps. 60 Both issues suggest the progressive reopening of 40 wholesale funding markets for Portuguese and Spanish 1 Ja n 2010 = 100 20 banks with a clear positive impact on both stock prices. 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bloomberg
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