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spectra energy Transcript_Q208

  1. 1. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 John Arensdorf Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Spectra Energy’s Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review. We are very pleased that you could join us today. Leading our discussion today will be Fred Fowler, our president and chief executive officer and Greg Ebel, our chief financial officer. Also available to take your questions at the end of the call are Martha Wyrsch, president and CEO of Spectra Energy Transmission, and Sabra Harrington, our vice President and controller. Both Fred and Greg will discuss our quarterly results and the progress we have made on our value enhancement program. We will then open the lines for your questions. Before we begin, let me take a moment to remind you that some of the things we will discuss today concern future company performance and include forward-looking statements within the meanings of the securities laws. Actual results may materially differ from those discussed in these forward-looking statements. You should refer to the additional information contained in Spectra Energy’s Form 10-K and in our other SEC filings concerning factors that could cause these results to be different from those contemplated in today’s discussion. In addition, today’s discussion includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available on our Investor Relations website at www.spectraenergy.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Fred. Fred Fowler Thanks, John, and good morning all. As you have seen from our earnings release this morning, we do have another excellent quarter to talk about today. Spectra Energy reported earnings per share of $0.47, which when you exclude a one time special item equates to ongoing earnings of $0.44 per share. That compares with ongoing earnings of $0.30 a share last year, so it is an impressive 47 percent increase. Our second quarter results reflect strong earnings from all of our business segments. Each segment delivered growth and value for the quarter, and we continue to realize the positive effect of higher commodity prices, particularly in our Field Services and our Western Canadian businesses.
  2. 2. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 2 We fully expect to significantly exceed our $1.56 per share employee incentive target, based on the commodity outlook for the foreseeable future. Given the strong commodity environment, and assuming commodity prices stay in their current range through 2010, we would expect long-term compounded average annual EPS growth in the 8 percent range. If you couple that with the dividend yield in the 3.5 percent range, this will provide a total average annual shareholder return over the next several years of more than 10 percent. These results reaffirm our confidence in our business plan – and our capacity to execute that plan with consistency. The positive elements of our business plan are evident in the value enhancement program that we announced earlier this year. We told you in May of our plan to repurchase up to $600 billion of Spectra Energy shares. As of June 30, we had repurchased $284 million or 10.5 million shares. The repurchase program is ongoing, and we expect to complete the buy-back in the third quarter. We are likewise well on track with our capital expansion plans. We are investing more than $4 billion in expansion projects between 2007 and 2010, an investment that will deliver more than $500 million in additional annual EBIT by 2011. This year alone, we will complete and bring into service some $1.6 billion in new projects, which will provide about $200 million in new annual EBIT. I wanted to take just a couple of minutes to talk about the shale plays that are going on in North America. It is an area that we are very focused on at this point, particularly where we enjoy strong existing asset positions, and we have several of those: • Texas Eastern and East Tennessee, for example, are well positioned to take advantage of the developing Marcellus shale play. This week we announced a non-binding open season for a proposed expansion on Texas Eastern to transport emerging Appalachian natural gas production to northeast U.S. markets. This follows a very successful open season that we held on the East Tennessee system earlier this year for their Greenway project. Our transmission assets are well positioned to offer producers options in the southern region of Appalachian production via East Tennessee and in West Virginia and the Pennsylvania area via our Texas Eastern system. • Appalachia has a long history of producing gas into these pipeline systems, and with the recent focus on new technologies and the advent of various shale plays we expect to enjoy continued and increasing production into our facilities in this region. • It is a little early to predict how much gas will be developed out of these emerging shale plays, but we have had success in several regions via both our pipeline as well as our gathering and processing businesses, and I think as these plays further develop, it really
  3. 3. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 3 is going to provide us very good opportunities for both incremental pipeline expansions as well as gathering and processing infrastructure expansions. • DCP Midstream’s assets are very strategically located in the Haynesville, Barnett, and the Woodford regions, and they will be looking to take advantage of potential opportunities in the Marcellus, Huron as well as other emerging plays. In fact, DCP’s existing propane distribution business in the region around the Eastern shale provides opportunities to build out that platform as well. • And I think, equally important, our Western Canadian business is extremely well aligned with both the emerging Horn River play and the current ongoing Montney play in British Columbia. Some of these opportunities are further out on the horizon than others, but they are definitely on our radar as future ways to continue to create value for Spectra Energy investors. Before I turn things over to Greg, I do want to express my confidence in his leadership. As you know, I am going to retire at the end of this year, and Greg will become president and CEO of Spectra Energy effective January 1, 2009. When we were spun-off from Duke Energy, my commitment was to successfully launch Spectra Energy and to ensure a successful stand-up, develop a strategy that delivers long-term value to shareholders, and develop my successor. While we did not have a firm timeline at that point, the board and I feel that we are on target for all three of these objectives and that the time is right for this change in leadership. I am extremely pleased that the board did select an internal candidate who is ready and willing and able to be my replacement. I am looking forward to moving on to the next phase of my life. Hopefully, I am going to spend a little less time on airplanes and a little more time with family, but I will do so knowing that the company really will be in good hands. My goal, of course, is to successfully deliver on our 2008 plan and to work closely with Greg on a smooth and seamless transition. We have created an office of the CEO allowing Greg and I to collaborate closely during this transition period. Again, our number one job is to achieve and hopefully exceed all of the goals that we have set for this year and to chart a successful course forward. This transition period will provide Greg the opportunity to lead the strategic planning efforts for 2009 and beyond so that we do enter 2009 fully prepared for the road ahead, and I know that you are all anxious to hear what his plans are. He will be in a position to share that plan with you in the December to January timeframe. Now, back to the present. Let us hear from Greg on the results from each of our segments.
  4. 4. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 4 Greg Ebel Thanks, Fred, for those very kind words of confidence. Good morning, everyone. Fred has done a fabulous job since launching Spectra in January of 2007, and it is a real honor which is humbling and extremely exciting for me to be taking over from someone so respected in the industry and with such a great track record of delivering value for investors – a track record that we sure plan to continue in 2009 and beyond. With respect to this quarter, we are extremely pleased with our performance, and as Fred stated, we expect to significantly exceed our employee incentive target of $1.56 per share. As you can see here, Spectra Energy reported second quarter 2008 earnings of $295 million or $0.47 per share compared with $196 million or $0.31 per share in the prior year’s quarter. After removing the effect of special items and discontinued operations, ongoing earnings for the quarter were $274 million or $0.44 per share, compared with $192 million or $0.30 per share last year, again, a 47 percent increase in ongoing EPS. Special items included a $21 million after tax gain on a bankruptcy settlement with Calpine this quarter and after tax separation costs of $7 million in the 2007 quarter. Now let us take a look at our performance by business segment, beginning with U.S. Transmission. U.S. Transmission reported second quarter 2008 EBIT of $244 million, compared with $223 million last year. The increase was primarily due to the bankruptcy settlement I mentioned earlier. Excluding that special item, ongoing EBIT for second quarter was $213 million. Earnings from expansion projects such as Northeast Gateway, Time II, and Egan, and higher earnings as a result of capitalized interest on construction projects benefited the segment in the 2008 quarter. These increases were offset by increased transmission and storage operating costs and $18 million in higher project development expense. You will recall that when we start projects, we expense the costs until we are confident the project will move forward to successful completion. At that time, we reverse the expenses and capitalize those development costs.
  5. 5. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 5 In the second quarter of 2008, we had expenses of about $10 million, compared to a net capitalized amount of about $8 million in the second quarter of 2007. The difference is a quarter- over-quarter reduction in earnings of about $18 million. The earnings effect of these development costs is driven by timing. As we continue executing on our capital expansion plans, these costs will reverse, improving earnings. And when in-service, the underlying projects in our $4 billion capital expansion plan will generate some $500 million in annual EBIT by 2011. Now let me turn to our Distribution business. Distribution reported second quarter 2008 EBIT of $54 million, unchanged compared with second quarter 2007. The segment benefited during the period from higher transportation and storage revenue and a stronger Canadian dollar. However, these very positive operating increases were offset by a $15 million charge this quarter as a result of an unfavorable regulatory decision from the Ontario Energy Board. This decision related to Union Gas’s unregulated storage revenues collected between November 2006 and June 2008. We are in the process of appealing and expect a decision by year end. Now moving on to Western Canada. Western Canada Transmission and Processing enjoyed a very positive quarter with second quarter 2008 EBIT of $87 million, compared with $48 million last year. This $39 million increase was due to several factors: • We saw higher earnings at Empress due to a higher frac spread and volumes. The second quarter 2008 frac spread was more than $2.50 higher than last year. Volumes were significantly higher this year due to a major turnaround at Empress that occurred during the quarter last year. • The strong Canadian dollar also positively affected results. • And a solid performance from gathering and processing resulted in increased processing revenues. Now let me speak to Field Services. Our Field Services business segment, which represents Spectra Energy’s 50 percent interest in DCP Midstream, saw another standout quarter, with ongoing EBIT of $216 million, compared with $126 million last year.
  6. 6. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 6 You will notice that we have added more detail on this slide for the quarter. We have told you in the past that DCP Midstream Partners, the MLP, hedges some of its commodity positions to protect cash distributions. Those cash flow hedges are subject to mark-to-market accounting. This is the first quarter that these hedges have had a material effect on earnings for Spectra Energy, so for clarity and transparency we have decided to show here this non-cash item. Before factoring in the effect of the mark on its MLP hedges, Field Services’ EBIT was $117 million higher this year than last. This increase was driven primarily by higher NGL prices, which correlate to higher crude oil. Crude oil averaged $124 per barrel in second quarter 2008, versus $65 per barrel a year ago. The expected effect on EBIT from higher crude was mitigated somewhat by a lower NGL to crude correlation, which averaged 50 percent in this year’s quarter, compared with 68 percent last year. And, of course, we have seen a benefit from rising natural gas prices as well. Natural gas averaged $11 per million BTU in the second quarter of 2008, compared with an average of $8 last year. This quarter’s results also reflect improved plant operating efficiencies and over 5 percent higher processing volumes. As you may recall, last year several plants were affected by severe weather which decreased operating efficiencies and volumes; this was not an issue this year. On all fronts, it was a very good quarter for DCP Midstream. For the quarter, Field Services paid distributions of $444 million to Spectra Energy, which included the $250 million special dividend we received in April. And in July we received an additional distribution of $110 million. Now let me turn to “Other,” which is primarily comprised of our corporate costs and captive insurance activities. For the second quarter, Other reported net costs of $28 million, compared with $26 in the second quarter of 2007. The 2007 period included special items of $7 million in costs associated with the launch of Spectra Energy. The increase in net costs in 2008 primarily resulted from higher insurance claims and higher benefit costs. That said, we are on track to meet our expectations for Other of between $80 and $90 million for the full year. The next slide shows several important additional items. Interest expense for second quarter 2008 was $149 million, compared with $156 million for second quarter 2007. The decrease resulted from lower interest rates on commercial paper and
  7. 7. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 7 higher capitalized interest costs. These decreases were partially offset by the effect of the stronger Canadian dollar on interest expense associated with our Canadian dollar debt. Our effective tax rate this quarter was 31 percent, the same rate we saw in second quarter 2007 and in line with our annual expectations of 32 to 33 percent. As of June 30, our debt to total capitalization stood at approximately 57 percent, and we have total capacity under our credit facilities of $2.7 billion, as well as available liquidity of about $1.9 billion. The Canadian currency change had a positive after-tax effect on earnings for second quarter 2008 of about $5 million, compared with last year. We have given you an overview of our second quarter results, and as you can see, we had an exceptional quarter. I want to also share another metric that we know is important to you, our ongoing Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, or EBITDA, by business segment. For the second quarter 2008, ongoing EBITDA was $765 million, compared with $625 million in the second quarter of 2007, a 22 percent increase due largely to the strong earnings of Field Services. On a year-to-date basis, our EBITDA is nearly $1.7 billion, compared to $1.3 billion last year – a healthy 27 percent increase. We know that EBITDA is an important element of valuation, so a few reminders as you do the calculations: • U.S. Transmission’s ongoing EBITDA includes Spectra Energy’s 50 percent share of Gulfstream’s interest and DD&A. • And Field Services’ ongoing EBITDA reflects Spectra Energy’s ongoing equity earnings from DCP Midstream, plus half of DCP Midstream’s interest, taxes, and DD&A. • It is necessary for us to add these items back to give you a true reflection of our EBITDA, since both DCP Midstream and Gulfstream are accounted for using the equity method. You can also find on our website this EBITDA schedule and the analysis of how these EBITDA amounts were calculated.
  8. 8. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 8 Next, we thought it might be helpful to look at a hypothetical example of the effect of higher commodity prices and what that does to Field Services’ EBIT compared with our original forecast. Spectra Energy’s employee incentive target is based on oil averaging $83 a barrel and natural gas averaging $8 per MMBtu for all of 2008. As you are all well aware, both oil and gas have been substantially above these assumptions. For this example, and I really want to stress that this is an example and not a forecast, we have assumed an annual crude oil price of $100 per barrel and a natural gas price of $10 per MMBtu, and an annual NGL to crude relationship of 55 percent. The sensitivities associated with commodity price changes at Field Services are listed at the bottom of this calculation. In this example, the sensitivity to a dollar per barrel change in oil and a 10 cent change in gas are just as we shared with you in January. However, each percentage change in the NGL and crude relationship now equates to about $15 million because this sensitivity increases as oil prices increase. You can see if we assume that oil is at $100 per barrel for the year, we would expect a $204 million increase in annual EBIT. An assumed 55 percent correlation is lower than the 60 percent we assumed in January, so that will lower EBIT by about $75 million. And a $2 per MMBtu increase in natural gas prices for the year would add about $40 million. Using these assumptions, all other things being equal, the hypothetical full year increase in EBIT at Field Services from the change in commodity prices alone is about $169 million. Of course, as crude oil prices, natural gas prices, and correlations change for the remainder of the year, so too will the results of this example. You can see here that as of Monday, August 4, the settled and forward prices for crude is $117 for all of 2008. That is about $34 per barrel higher than the amount we assumed in our 2008 forecast. In closing, we are pleased with the superior results we experienced in the second quarter. With a continuation of today’s commodity prices, we are confident that the second half of 2008 will be equally impressive and rewarding for our investors. We are on a strong growth path aimed at addressing the energy infrastructure needs of North America. Our assets are strategically situated, and we enjoy highly favorable market dynamics. We strongly believe in our ability to execute on the plan and drive up the operational growth and financial return targets we have set for ourselves and our shareholders. With that, we would be happy to take your questions. Nick O’Grady with Highbridge Capital Management
  9. 9. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 9 Hi. Good morning. I have a couple questions on NGLs. I do not know exactly what the percent of proceeds versus keepwhole balance is, but I am curious about your thoughts on the ethane market. It seems like ethane pricing, which makes up about 50 percent of the NGLs, is collapsing relative to crude, and maybe just another comment on the Canadian business on volumes going forward given that AECO pricing has continued to collapse and how that affects the percent of proceeds side. Fred Fowler I think from the standpoint of today in our joint venture with ConocoPhillips on the Lower 48 gathering and processing, about 90 percent of our processing is on percent of proceeds. The big exposure that we continue to have in our Western Canadian business is the Empress plant which is on a keepwhole basis. I think from the standpoint of NGLs, there is no doubt that ethane is under pressure, but if you really look at the crude relationship over the year, when crude took off on its jag, we saw for the second quarter the overall composite barrel get down to about a 50 percent correlation versus crude oil, and actually, even with the pressure that ethane is under today with the pullback in crude oil, we are seeing that relationship improve back to around the mid 50s at this point. So while it is about as good as it would have been had you not seen the pressure on ethane, it is not to the point that I think it is dramatically hurting us. But it is always a concern because no doubt where ethane goes, it goes into the petrochemicals as a base feedstock for ethylene, and ethylene is very driven by the economy and particularly the housing market, so it is something we’re watching. Nick O’Grady And just as a follow-up to that, in Canada in general on a volumetric basis, have you seen AECOs now roughly below or close to below marginal costs for Canadian production? Have you seen any fall-off in volumes at this point that is a concern? Fred Fowler No noticeable fall-off at this point. Nick O’Grady Okay, thanks.
  10. 10. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 10 Lasan Johong with RBC Capital Market Thank you. Congratulations on a good quarter. Fred, I am going to be very sorry to see you go at the end of the year, and Greg, congratulations and it could not happen to a nicer guy. I have just a couple of quick questions, real simply. First of all, is there any cost escalation pressures on any of your major projects going forward, and is everything on schedule and on budget, and could you give us a little update on Bronco? Fred Fowler The short answer to your question is yes, there is cost pressure, and it is something we are spending an awful lot of time making sure that we manage and keep under control. Again, the one that has been the biggest problem for us and I think we have been fairly transparent about it has been our SESH project. That one is winding down. It does look like we are going to come in around that $600 million for our share that we have been talking to you about. And while we do see pressure at other projects, I do not see any to the point that is raising great concern on our part and nothing schedule-wise that is going to have a huge impact. Stuff is moving along pretty nicely. In terms of Bronco, we’ve said that Bronco as proposed is not going to happen. We continue to look at what the opportunities are out of the Rockies. As we have also said, we think obviously there is more capacity that has to get built. It is a question of the market ferreting out which project is it going to be and what direction is it going to go in. Quite frankly, Lasan, in recent times I think we have probably shifted a little more of our focus over to these shale plays just because they are emerging so quickly and we are so well positioned in most of them. Just to give you a feel, up at the Appalachian, in the last six months or so, we have had over 30 requests for interconnections into our Texas Eastern system, and that is what drove us to announce that open season that we did yesterday. Really, we are getting so many requests for interconnects and it is on a part of our system. In many cases, it is on the laterals that run to our storage facilities which run pretty full, particularly during winter months. We know that we are going to have some expansions on the system, and that is what that open season is about. It is kind of like we did on the Rex gas coming in. We held that series of open seasons that confused a lot of people, but we segmented the market and as a result handled a lot of that gas, and it is just a question of trying to figure out from the producers where do you want to put gas in, where do you want to take it out, and in what time period do you want to do it. I think one of the reasons we are so well positioned on that is having
  11. 11. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 11 an existing system, we can increment expansions on it to fit the market as it does grow and comes on. So, quite frankly, we have been much more focused there, although we continue to have people active in the Rockies. Greg Ebel The other thing, Lasan, is yesterday DCP very much focused on the shales, too. You might have seen that they announced a potential project called the Haynesville Connector that could be up to a B and a half a day, so it is right across the business that we are looking at that. Lasan Johong Let me follow-up with a couple questions on the shale issue. Equitable Resources has been complaining rather loudly that nobody is paying attention to their plays, but it looks like that is changing. In the meantime, they have decided to go ahead and build out a gathering and transmission system of their own. Is there a chance that you would cooperate with Equitable to get that done, or is there enough capacity for both projects? Am I looking at this all weird? Fred Fowler No, I do not think so. I think Equitable is one of those companies that because of its mix of businesses, understands the importance of gathering and pipeline infrastructure to the production of natural gas. And they have built out quite a bit of infrastructure to make sure they can produce that gas, and it has been a good, competitive advantage for them. But I think that, realistically, you just saw the announcement where they did a deal on Tennessee yesterday on the Kentucky production. I think it is just a question of if people come to them, I think their preference would be to have pipelines and gatherers and processors do that work so they could commit their capital to their drilling programs. I do not want to speak for them, but that is kind of the message that I have seen. It has been more that they have done it because they were not getting the response, and they wanted to make sure that they could produce their gas production. Lasan Johong It sounds like you are going to take over some of that role that Equitable was planning to do on the transmission side. Fred Fowler We would love to.
  12. 12. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 12 Lasan Johong That sounds great. On the Field Services business, obviously, crude oil and natural gas prices are both coming under some pressure. Is that going to change the outlook? It does not sound like it will, but I just want to make sure that things are not changing because of commodity issues. Fred Fowler We never did plan our business around $140 a barrel crude oil. We planned it around, for the balance of the year, around $90. Where it is going to shake out, who knows? Commodities can do crazy things. In our opinion, going to $145 was pretty crazy, but we will see where these things go, but it was definitely due for a pullback. It was a question to me of a market trying to find the clearing price. At what point do you start destroying demand because, quite frankly, we have had high enough oil prices for a period of time that we could not get a supply reaction to build a production cushion at today’s demand levels, and so what finally happened was the market testing to see what it took to destroy demand. It looked like $145 started doing a pretty good job of it. Lasan Johong That sounds great. Greg, one last question for you: What are your thoughts on looking for a replacement for the CFO role that you have undertaken so far? Greg Ebel About an hour after the announcement was made, we started that search and we are taking that on right now. The average search for a CFO these days, I am told, takes about 120 days. I think with the opportunity here at Spectra Energy, hopefully we will be able to do that a little bit quicker, but I fully expect that we will be up and ready to go January 1 with the CFO and team in place. Lasan Johong Are you looking internally or externally or both? Greg Ebel
  13. 13. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 13 Right now we are looking externally. We have got some great candidates internally as well, but I think, as always, strengthening the bench from a financial perspective, there are some great candidates that I think we can attract from the outside as well. Lasan Johong Great. Thank you. Greg Ebel Thank you. Ross Payne with Wachovia How are you doing, guys? Greg Ebel Good. Fred Fowler Good, Ross. How are you? Ross Payne Good. Fred, you will be missed in January, and congratulations, Greg. We look forward to the future with you guys. The first question: Obviously, DCP is moving some decent distributions up to you. Is that going to be an ongoing situation over the next 18 to 24 months? Fred Fowler It is a function of two things: How good are liquids prices going to be is one of the drivers, but also, we are starting to see some pretty compelling opportunities in that part of the business with these shale plays and how they are positioned. I think they may be absorbing more of their capital internally than we have seen in recent years, where we have clearly been dividending it out and reinvesting it in our gas transmission business. It is a little early to give you any specifics, but again, some of the opportunities that are starting to emerge there have pretty compelling returns to them.
  14. 14. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 14 Ross Payne That makes sense. Also on the Marcellus play, how big of a CapEx situation might that be for the expansion of Texas Eastern and other projects in the area? Fred Fowler Ross, I think it is just a little early to know. Overall, I think it is going to be a good-sized opportunity. It is a question of what will the timing be as to how you sequence it because there are a lot of issues that have to be dealt with in developing the Marcellus production. It is not going to happen all at once. It will take a period of years. I think it is an exciting opportunity with a pretty big upside, but my own opinion is that it will happen over a period of years, not in one huge slug. Ross Payne Okay. And Fred, what are some of the biggest issues you see with that? Fred Fowler I think water being one of them. Ross Payne Okay. Fred Fowler And you are dealing in pretty environmentally sensitive areas where they have not been dealing with these issues in a big way in recent times, so it will take time for all that to ferret out. Probably the producers are the better people to ask that question of, actually. Ross Payne Okay. And three quick questions together: Can you opine on the mark-to-market losses at DCP, how big they might have been? Second of all, Union Gas, I assume that is a one-time effect there. That is not going to be an ongoing decrease. And if you could also just expand on what the transmission project development costs of $18 million were during the quarter. Thanks.
  15. 15. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 15 Greg Ebel Let us take those in order, Ross. With respect to the mark-to-market on Field Services, we put that in there. It was about $25 million which you can see on the slide, so remember that we have an indirect interest in that MLP of about 15 percent, so that was the number on that front. With respect to Union, the impact was about $15 million as we indicated. As you know, we had a very positive storage deal in November 2006, and we had read as such that we would be phasing in all the old long-term storage deals that were not used for franchise customers starting in 2008 so that by 2011 we would have 100 percent, but any new long-term storage deals that were ex-franchise we would immediately be able to book 100 percent of those. The OEB had a different view in the last few weeks and so we had to go back and change those. We are appealing that, so that may go back our way, but if it does not, by the time we get to 2011 we will just have phased in both the new and the old deals. For the rest of this year, there could be about a $10 million impact because obviously we would book those revenues for the remainder of the year as well. Ross Payne Okay, and the transmission projects? Greg Ebel Yes, on the transmission project side, net was about $18 million negative impact. If you are looking for the specific number for the quarter, it was about a $10 million impact. So net of $18 and about $10 million negative impact in the second quarter 2008. Ross Payne Okay. Thanks, guys. It was a very good quarter. Fred Fowler Thank you. Paul Fremont
  16. 16. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 16 Thank you. First of all, congratulations on the quarter and Greg, congratulations. I have two questions. One, it looks like in Transmission there was a $32 million gain on asset sale during the quarter. If you could give us a little detail on that. And second of all, can you just update us on any regulatory reviews either in the U.S. or in Canada? Greg Ebel Sure. With respect to the gain at Transmission, that was the bankruptcy settlement with Calpine, so that was virtually all of it. I think it was $31 of the $32 million, so that accounts for that piece. On the regulatory side, I think the big one was the one we just mentioned with respect to Union Gas. There are no other major regulatory cases pending either in the U.S. or Canada on that front. Paul Okay, thank you very much. Greg Ebel Okay. Thanks, Paul. Barry Klein with Citi This is Barry Klein. Congratulations to Greg. I had a couple of questions. Most of mine have been answered, though. With regard to SESH, do you have a date for the in-service yet? It is coming up soon, right? Fred Fowler Yes, it will be late third quarter. Barry Klein Late third quarter. And with the correlations between the oil and the NGL prices at 50 percent, that is a bit below historical levels, probably because they are not increasing at the pace of the oil price, but as the oil prices come back down, are you seeing those correlations revert back to historical levels to 55 percent to 60 percent, or are they staying at that low 50 percent level? Fred Fowler
  17. 17. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 17 The last that I looked, they were back to the mid 50s. Barry Klein Okay. All right. Thanks a lot. Fred Fowler Thank you. Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates Good morning, guys. Greg Ebel Good morning. Fred Fowler Good morning, Paul. Paul Patterson Both of my questions have been answered, but just to understand the OEB decision, there is a $10 million impact going forward this year, is that correct? Greg Ebel Yes. That would be assuming we do not win the appeal. Obviously, if we win the appeal, we could reverse this and book the $10 million. I am saying that as we put our plans together we would have assumed, and we did assume, that we would be booking any new long-term storage deals that were ex-franchise in our numbers. If this decision stands, then obviously we will have to phase those in. Again, you are going to get 100 percent of that by the time the full phase in is done, but we had assumed on new deals we would get 100 percent immediately. Paul Patterson
  18. 18. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 18 Okay, and then what about 2009? Greg Ebel We would be phasing in. We would be in the 50% level in 2009, but we will obviously take that into account. We will know what the regulatory decision is before we finalize our 2009 plan. Paul Patterson Okay, but just to get a sense as to what the impact would be from the decision, where would it roughly be? How should we think about that if it were to stand and how it might impact 2009? Greg Ebel If you looked at the total year impact this year, call it around $20 million because we were only getting 25 percent of that benefit. If next year we were to get 50 percent, I think you would be in about the $15 million range for next year. Paul Patterson Okay. Thanks a lot, guys. Lasan Johong with RBC Capital Market Thank you. I am starting to hear some rumblings about E&P companies cutting back on CapEx spending because gas prices have come down rather precipitously. Is this something that you can also corroborate, and if so, when do you think that this impact will start to hit DCP Midstream? Fred Fowler I think it just depends on how long they stay down. Other than the stuff I read in the press we, at this point, just have not seen any huge impact on it. Lasan Johong That is good. Fred Fowler
  19. 19. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 19 If you really think about it, this decrease in gas prices is less than a month old, so people react quickly but, typically, not that quickly. Lasan Johong So you think the capital budgets are pretty well set obviously for this year but for 2009 as well, then? Fred Fowler Yes, but I think they will constantly look at them. There is no doubt that if you see a drop-off in drilling with the decline rates that we have these days, typically, it comes pretty quickly. Lasan Johong So you are saying that even if we have a drop-off in gas prices, the adjustment will be relatively very quick and drilling will pick up again because decline rates are very quick these days? Fred Fowler Yes. Lasan Johong Excellent. Thank you. John Arensdorf It sounds like we do not have any further questions. All right. Thank you very much for joining us on the call today. Before we leave, I want to tell you about a few educational opportunities that we are going to bring to you to provide additional insight into various segments of our business. On August 21, we have scheduled a conference call at 9 a.m. Eastern, 8 a.m. Central, for Julie Dill, president of Union Gas, to provide a deeper dive into the distribution segment of our business, Union Gas. You should have received an invitation by e-mail earlier this week. And I would also like to ask you to save 3:30 p.m. Eastern time on Monday, September 22, when we will bring Tom
  20. 20. Spectra Energy Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Review August 6, 2008 Page 20 O’Connor, president and CEO of DCP Midstream, and Rose Robeson, their CFO, to New York to provide you more details around the Midstream business. We are going to be sending out e- mail invitations to this one a little bit closer to that date. We hope to provide a similar event a little later this year for the Western Canadian business, but again, we will provide more information as we firm up the details on that one. Again, thank you for joining us today and as always, if you have any additional questions, please feel free to call Patti Fitzpatrick or me. Thank you.