monsanto 07-31-06


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monsanto 07-31-06

  2. 2. Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained in the presentations included in this tour are quot;forward-looking statements,quot; such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's filings with the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results. Trademarks Trademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. Mavera™ is a trademark of Renessen. © 2006 Monsanto Company 2
  3. 3. OVERVIEW Mid-Season Check Point Indicates Continuing Momentum in Pipeline Opportunities ANNUAL R&D CYCLE: SEEDS & TRAITS JULY-AUGUST MID-YEAR PIPELINE UPDATE NEW ANALYSIS Continued data analysis allows for additional conclusions from 2005 U.S. field research YieldGard Rootworm Dicamba-tolerant soybeans Nitrogen-utilization Q1 Q4 corn OFF-SEASON RESULTS Southern Hemisphere field research has been Q2 Q3 collected; Early indications support performance of key projects Drought-tolerant corn Insect-protected soybeans Higher-yielding soybeans Omega-3 soybeans EXPANDED OPPORTUNITIES “HIT” designation becomes a new initiative to enhance commercial impact of R&D JANUARY ANNUAL PIPELINE UPDATE Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Project reviews, including phase Coordinated biofuels strategy opens new advancements and primary data review from field research opportunities for Monsanto technology 3
  4. 4. NEW ANALYSIS Second Year of Drought Pressure in Central Corn Belt Demonstrating Performance Value of YieldGard Rootworm KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA YieldGard Rootworm AVAILABLE MARKET 25-30M 5M 1M Corn PERCENT PENETRATED 40% 0% 0% U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT INFO WEEK OF JULY 18, 2006 Indications are there is drought D0: Abnormally Dry • YieldGard Rootworm stress in areas of D1: Drought - Moderate delivers effective and the Western Corn consistent in-plant D1: Drought - Severe Belt and Texas protection against western, D1: Drought - Extreme northern and Mexican corn D1: Drought - Exceptional rootworms Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, Le Comte and Heddinghaus, CPC/NOAA: RETAIL $17-$19/acre VALUE/ACRE: 2006 Field pictures already show a significant difference in TOTAL ACRE the performance of YieldGard 25-30M (U.S.) OPPORTUNITY: Rootworm. YIELDGARD SOIL-APPLIED ROOTWORM INSECTICIDE DISCOVERY PHASE III PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Adv. Development Proof of Concept Early Development Pre-Launch 4
  5. 5. NEW ANALYSIS Early Field Testing Indicates Nitrogen Utilization Corn Offers Yield Benefits in Limited Nitrogen Conditions KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA Nitrogen utilization AVAILABLE MARKET 80M 30M 6M corn PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0% NITROGEN UTILIZATION CORN PERFORMANCE IN PRODUCT CONCEPT NEW 2005 UNDER LIMITED NITROGEN ENVIRONMENTS • Nitrogen-utilization corn 40 targets ways that corn PRODUCT plants can use nitrogen A V E R A G E Y IE L D 30 IN C R E A S E (% ) CONCEPT more efficiently, exploring YIELD RESULTS UPDATE the potential to boost yield BENEFIT 20 under normal nitrogen TARGET RANGE conditions or stabilize yield in low nitrogen 10 environments 0 Medium GENE CONSTRUCTS RETAIL (>$10/acre to VALUE/ACRE: <$30/acre) In expanded testing with more than 30 genes, nitrogen utilization corn showed a yield advantage of approximately 10 High percent in limited nitrogen environments TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY: (>20M acres) Previous data indicated nitrogen utilization corn offered yield benefits at normal levels of nitrogen as well DISCOVERY PHASE III PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Early Development Adv. Development Proof of Concept Pre-Launch 5
  6. 6. NEW ANALYSIS Dicamba-Tolerant Soybeans Have Two Modes of Action and Represent Third-Generation Herbicide Tolerance KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA Dicamba-tolerant AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 60M 35M soybeans PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0% DICAMBA-TOLERANT SOYBEANS PERFORMANCE PRODUCT CONCEPT NEW AT INCREASING APPLICATION RATES • Dicamba-tolerant soybeans 70 provide a new, unique A V E R A G E Y IE L D (L B /A C ) 60 mode of action, designed 50 to provide soybean RESULTS UPDATE 40 growers with the most 30 effective weed 20 management system available and to be used in 10 conjunction with 0 Monsanto’s Roundup EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3 EVENT 4 EVENT 5 RReady2Yield trait UNSPRAYED PRE-EMERGENT Medium RETAIL (>$10/acre to VALUE/ACRE: POST-EMERGENT PRE-EMERGENT/POST-EMERGENT <$30/acre) 2005 multi-location field tests demonstrate Dicamba-tolerant High TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY: soybeans are conferring effective tolerance to the plants with (>20M acres) no yield penalty with pre-emergent and post-emergent applications DISCOVERY PHASE III PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Early Development Adv. Development Proof of Concept Pre-Launch 6
  7. 7. OFF-SEASON RESULTS Off-Season Field Data Reinforces Potential for Yield Benefit of Drought-Tolerant Corn KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA AVAILABLE MARKET 80M 30M 6M Drought-tolerant corn PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0% P R O JE CT UNDER DROUGHT STRESS, HYBRIDS WITH BEST- PRODUCT CONCEPT NEW PERFORMING EVENTS SHOW YIELD ADVANTAGE OVER CONTROLS 16% • Drought-tolerance is a AVERAGE YIELD BENEFIT (%) family of products, aimed 14% AFTER DROUGHT STRESS at providing consistent 12% RESULTS UPDATE yield and buffering against 10% the effects of water PRODUCT CONCEPT 8% limitations YIELD 6% BENEFIT TARGET 4% Variable, RANGE RETAIL 2% based on VALUE/ACRE: market 0% U.S. 2004 (4 U.S. 2005 (5 S. AMERICA LOCATIONS) LOCATIONS) 2005-2006 (5 High TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY: LOCATIONS) (>20M acres) Under stressed conditions in South America, drought-tolerant trait showed a yield benefit at product-concept targets – reinforcing the results seen for two years in the U.S. DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Proof of Concept Early Development Adv. Development Pre-Launch 7
  8. 8. OFF-SEASON RESULTS Higher-Yielding Soybeans Showed Improved Yield in 2006 Testing KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA Higher-yielding AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 60M 35M soybeans PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0% HIGHER-YIELDING SOYBEAN PERFORMANCE PRODUCT CONCEPT NEW VERSUS CONVENTIONAL CONTROLS 12% AVERAGE YIELD ADVANTAGE • Higher-yielding soybeans 10% are aimed at boosting the (% OF CONTROL) intrinsic yield potential of RESULTS UPDATE 8% the soybean through insertion of key genes PRODUCT 6% CONCEPT YIELD 4% BENEFIT Medium TARGET RETAIL 2% RANGE (>$10/acre to VALUE/ACRE: <$30/acre) 0% EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3 High TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY: 2005: U.S., 19 LOCAT IONS 2006: ARGENT INA, 15 LOCAT IONS (>20M acres) Three seasons of testing in 43 environments has demonstrated consistent yield enhancement, with increased yield improvement from 2005 to 2006 DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE III PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Proof of Concept Early Development Adv. Development Pre-Launch 8
  9. 9. OFF-SEASON RESULTS Insect-Protected Soybeans Create New Opportunity in South America KEY MARKET ACRES BRAZIL ARGENTINA Insect-protected AVAILABLE MARKET 60M 35M soybeans PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% INITIAL PERFORMANCE OF INSECT-PROTECTED PRODUCT CONCEPT NEW SOYBEANS • Insect-protected soybeans 6% use the Bt technology OVER NO-INSECTICIDE 5% widely adopted in corn and AVERAGE YIELD INCREASE (%) cotton to control insect 4% CONTROL RESULTS UPDATE pests in soybeans, which 3% are especially economically important for 2% South American farmers 1% 0% Small RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: INSECTICIDE-TREATED INSECT-PROTECTED (<$10/acre) SOYBEANS Initial field trials of Insect-protected soybeans in Argentina Medium demonstrated significant yield protection versus insecticides TOTAL ACRE (>5M acres to in mild-to-moderate insect infestations OPPORTUNITY: <20M acres) Intended as a stacked offering with the Roundup Ready family for herbicide control DISCOVERY PHASE III PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Early Development Adv. Development Proof of Concept Pre-Launch 9
  10. 10. OFF-SEASON RESULTS Omega-3 Soybeans Have Met Early Development Targets for Both Food Application and Field Performance KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. AVAILABLE MARKET <5M Omega-3 soybeans PERCENT PENETRATED 0% CONSISTENT AGRONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF PRODUCT CONCEPT NEW OMEGA-3 SOYBEANS IN FIELD TRIALS 80 • Omega-3 soybeans 70 represent a land based AVERAGE YIELD supply of essential Omega- 60 3 fatty acids. With soybean RESULTS UPDATE 50 (BU/AC) oil that would contain 20% OMEGA-3 40 stearidonic acid (SDA), the CONTROL intent is for taste, shelf-life 30 and oil stability to be as 20 close to soybean oil as 10 possible with a superior 0 profile when compared U.S. 2004 (10 ARGENTINA U.S. 2005 (15 ARGENTINA with fish oil LOCATIONS) 2004-2005 (12 LOCATIONS) 2005-2006 (12 LOCATIONS) LOCATIONS) High RETAIL New data focuses on field performance, demonstrating Omega-3 VALUE/ACRE: (>$30/acre) soybean yield is on par with commodity soybeans – an important factor to farmers growing specialty crops Small TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY: Previous data focused on oil properties such as initial smell, taste (<5M acres) and shelf-life characteristics DISCOVERY PHASE III PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Early Development Adv. Development Proof of Concept Pre-Launch 10
  11. 11. EXPANDED OPPORTUNITITES “HIT” Projects Streamline Internal Work and Bolster Commercial Readiness High-Impact Technology: A designated sub-set of the R&D pipeline placed on a graduated track to streamline development work and improve commercial readiness, reflecting enhanced confidence and certainty in our ability to launch a commercially P R O JE CT meaningful product; Designed to pull forward the Net Present Value (NPV) through larger-acre launches in elite germplasm with a greater financial benefit. Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans P R O JE CT PHASE III • Parallel work in breeding and biotechnology • Simultaneous regulatory work, submissions moving forward along with project testing for key launch countries Drought-tolerant corn P R O JE CT PHASE II • Parallel work in breeding and biotechnology • Early-stage R&D and commercial integration Vistive III soybeans P R O JE CT PHASE II • Progress will allow Vistive III to “leap- frog,” shortening the gap in commercialization between Vistive I and Vistive III 11
  12. 12. EXPANDED OPPORTUNITIES Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Offer Yield Improvement Over First-Generation Roundup Ready Soybeans KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA Roundup RReady2Yield AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 60M 35M Soybeans PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0% P R O JE CT PRODUCT CONCEPT 1996 FORWARD PRONOUNCED USDA NASS U.S. SOYBEAN YIELD • Roundup RReady2Yield is 50 SHIFT UPWARD (MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL ANALYSIS) the second-generation of IN BU/AC YIELD Monsanto’s popular 40 With the introduction AVERAGE YIELD (BU/AC) herbicide-tolerant platform of Roundup Ready RESULTS UPDATE in soybeans that will soybeans in 1996, a 1 30 percent increase in provide farmers with Roundup Ready soybeans that have soybean acreage is enhanced yield, with a 20 associated with a 10 target of up to 5 bushel- percent increase in per-acre yield improvement the normal per-year 10 yield gain. Roundup over comparable Roundup Ready2Yield soybeans Ready soybeans are expected to Medium continue this growth 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 RETAIL in yields. (>$10/acre to VALUE/ACRE: <$30/acre) ACTUAL YIELD PREDICTED YIELD OUTLIER EXCLUDED High TOTAL ACRE UPPER & LOWER 99% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OPPORTUNITY: (>20M acres) Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS): DISCOVERY PHASE III PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Early Development Adv. Development Proof of Concept Pre-Launch 12
  13. 13. NEW OPPORTUNITIES Opportunity in Renewable Fuels is Driving Demand in Agriculture U.S. & BRAZIL ETHANOL OUTLOOK ETHANOL MARKET 20 30 BILLIONS OF GALLONS 27 U.S. and Brazil represent greater than 95% of MILLIONS OF ACRES global ethanol market 24 15 21 By 2015, ethanol should grow from 8B to 20B gallons 18 Assumptions: 10 15 12 In U.S., 10% of gasoline demand from ethanol by 2015 9 5 In Brazil, 20% - 24% of gasoline from ethanol 6 Corn for ethanol grows from 11M to 27M acres 3 0 0 Sugarcane for ethanol grows from 6.5M to 12.5M 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 acres CORN U.S. BIODIESEL MARKET SUGARCANE BRAZIL U.S. and EU represent 95% of global biodiesel GLOBAL BIODIESEL OUTLOOK 4 20 market BILLIONS OF GALLONS 18 MILLIONS OF ACRES 3.5 By 2012, biodiesel should more than triple from 16 1B to 3.4B gallons 3 14 Assumptions: 2.5 12 In EU, biodiesel approaches 5.75% of total 2 10 transport fuel by 2010 8 1.5 6 In U.S., tax credit extends to 2012 1 4 Rapeseed and canola for biodiesel grow from 6M 0.5 2 to 10M acres 0 0 Soy for biodiesel grows from 2M to 20M acres 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Palm for biodiesel grows from 0.3M to 1.5M acres PALM BIODIESEL SOYBEAN RAPESEED & CANOLA Source: Proexporter Network, Pro Mar And Monsanto Estimates 13
  14. 14. NEW OPPORTUNITIES While Pathways to Participate in Biofuels Marketplace Vary, Monsanto Is Focusing on Three Primary Raw Materials SOURCES FOR MAJOR BIOFUEL CATEGORIES MARKET SOURCES FOCUS ETHANOL ETHANOL Sugarcane Corn Increased Yield Cellulosic High Fermentable Switchgrass Corn Trees (Poplar, Pine) 89 91 Renessen Corn DIESEL Miscanthus Processing System Waste (Pulp, Hulls) E85 Alfalfa Expanded Acres ETHANOL BIODIESEL BIODIESEL Palm BIODIESEL Increased Yield Soybean Higher Oil Rapeseed / Canola Expanded Acres Corn Jatrapha 14
  15. 15. ETHANOL Processor Preferred High Fermentable Corn Hybrids Proven to Enhance Ethanol Yields MONSANTO PROCESSOR PREFERRED HIGH FERMENTABLE CORN (HFC) USE OF ETHANOL YIELD IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR ETHANOL UPDATE THROUGH HIGH FERMENTABLE CORN PREFERRED CORN CAN SHIFT THE Average yield for a ETHANOL YIELD conventional dry mill is DISTRIBUTION 2.8 gallons of ethanol for every 1 bushel of CURVE TO THE corn RIGHT 140 900 OPPORTUNITY PROCESSOR PREFERRED HYBRIDS 800 An ethanol plant that 120 actively sources HFC NUMBER OF SAMPLES 700 PROCESSOR PREFERRED NUMBER OF SAMPLES can improve ethanol 100 #2 YELLOW CORN yields #2 YELLOW CORN 600 HFC provided an 2.7% 80 500 average increase in ethanol yields in large 400 60 scale commercial trials across 7 states and 300 Canada in 2003 – 2004 40 200 Some ethanol plants are paying a premium 20 100 of $0.05-$0.08 per bushel for Processor 0 0 Preferred HFC hybrids 45.00 46.00 47.20 48.20 49.20 50.20 51.20 52.20 53.20 54.20 55.20 PREDICTED ETHANOL YIELD (NIT UNITS) 15
  16. 16. ETHANOL Breeding and Biotechnology in Corn Provides Greater Yield and Consistency Necessary to Fuel Ethanol Markets FOCUS: IOWA ETHANOL REFINERIES ETHANOL DRAW AREA 290K corn acres required to supply a 100M gallon dry mill OPPORTUNITY Ethanol draw acres are DUBUQUE likely to be highly technified with elite SIOUX Processor Preferred CITY CEDAR germplasm combined in a RAPIDS future 4-way stack IOWA Monsanto’s molecular CITY AMES breeding will double the DAVENPORT rate of genetic gain versus conventional DES breeding MOINES ONE OF MONSANTO’S FUTURE 4-WAY STACKS BURLINGTON YIELDGARD CORN BORER YIELDGARD ROOTWORM ROUNDUP READY CORN 2 MAVERA™ DRAW AREA FOR HIGH VALUE ETHANOL PLANTS UNDER ETHANOL PLANTS IN WET MILL ETHANOL DRY MILL CORN WITH CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION LYSINE 16 Source: Renewable Fuels Association and Monsanto estimates
  17. 17. ETHANOL Renessen Corn Processing System Has Potential to Change Competitive Landscape in Ethanol Production ETHANOL FACILITY VALUE STREAM COMPARISON ETHANOL UPDATE ETHANOL PRODUCTION FACILITY VALUE STREAMS Capacity of 4.7B 1 gallons should increase to 13B gallons after turn of ETHANOL decade CONVENTIONAL DRY MILL Competition likely to PROCESS become more intense DDG as incentives decrease and more ethanol facilities come on line OPPORTUNITY ETHANOL 2 (increased yield and Renessen corn throughput) processing system is poised to ENHANCED DDG RENESSEN CORN demonstrate (increased protein content PROCESSING SYSTEM competitive and reduced utility costs COUPLED WITH advantage over because of lower volumes conventional facilities CONVENTIONAL DRY MILL of DDG) by producing higher PROCESS value co-products and NUTRIENT RICH MEAL higher fermentable FOR SWINE & POULTRY starch for ethanol HIGH VALUE CORN OIL FOR FOOD AND BIODIESEL NOTE: DDG = DISTILLERS DRIED GRAIN 17
  18. 18. BIODIESEL Soybean and Canola Pipeline to Deliver Greater Value to Farmers and Processors for a Growing U.S. Biodiesel Market FOCUS: U.S. BIODIESEL PLANTS U.S. BIODIESEL INDUSTRY In 2006, capacity is 400M gallons with 65 plants in production 50 plants under construction and 8 expansion projects should add 700M gallons in 2007 OPPORTUNITY Soybean oil is the predominant feedstock for U.S. biodiesel plants Canola from Canada may represent a growing segment of supply Roundup Ready soybeans are on 95% of soybean acres providing increased reliability to oilseed crushers Pipeline traits should provide greater value and reliability BIODIESEL BIODIESEL PLANTS UNDER BIODIESEL PLANTS IN PLANT CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION EXPANSION 18 Source: National Biodiesel Board And Monsanto estimates
  19. 19. BIODIESEL High Oil Soybeans To Deliver Value Regardless of End Use in Feed or Fuel High oil soybeans PRODUCT CONCEPT HIGH OIL SOYBEANS IN U.S. FIELD TRIALS 24 • High oil soybeans to increase total product offering by improving RESULTS UPDATE refinery yield and meal 22 protein % Oil 20 Low RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: (<$10/acre) 18 Neg. Pos. Neg. Pos. Small TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY: (<20M acres) Event 1 Event 2 OIL QUANTITY ADVANTAGE OVER CONVENTIONAL CONTROLS ACROSS MULTIPLE EVENTS DISCOVERY PHASE III PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH Early Development Adv. Development Proof of Concept Pre-Launch 19
  20. 20. SUMMARY Pipeline to Deliver Additive Value to Biofuels Marketplace ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD SOYBEANS Target of up to 5 bu/acre yield increase over comparable Roundup Ready soybeans Target of up to 6 gal/per acre of biodiesel increase INSECT-PROTECTED SOYBEANS Demonstrated yield gains over insecticide treated checks Increased yield per acre translates to increased oil per acre DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN Yield advantage of best performing events under drought stress in Argentina 10% target yield increase corresponds to 10% more gal/acre of ethanol NITROGEN-UTILIZATION CORN Targeting ways plants can use nitrogen more efficiently A 10% target yield increase in limited nitrogen environments corresponds to 10% more gal/acre of ethanol HIGHER-YIELDING SOYBEANS 3rd year of testing demonstrates consistent yield benefits Up to an additional 6 gal/acre of biodiesel HIGH-OIL SOYBEANS FOR PROCESSING Offers dual role benefiting oil and feed processors 20
  21. 21. SUMMARY R&D Pipeline Holds More Potential Backed By Performance Than Any Time In Monsanto’s Recent History APHIS PERMIT APPLICATIONS FOR BIOTECH FIELD TESTING – 1ST QUARTER 2006 196 200 180 160 140 109 120 100 83 80 80 60 40 21 7 20 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 MONSANTO BASF DOW PIONEER SYNGENTA TOTAL CORN SOYBEAN Source: Seed Today, Second Quarter 2006, Vol.10 No.2 21