3. OVERVIEW
Market Forces Inspiring Changing Global Agricultural
Landscape into Next Decade
UNITED STATES1
Expanding ethanol
5-YR AVG 2015F
and export
demands favor U.S. ARABLE ACREAGE 250M FLAT
as low-cost corn
CORN 79M
producer
SOYBEANS 74M
U.S. ramps up
production of corn;
Soy crop becomes BRAZIL2
increasingly focused 5-YR AVG 2015F
on higher-value ARABLE ACREAGE 900M
segments over
commodity CORN 33M
SOYBEANS 53M
Brazil and Argentina
exploit land availability
advantage to become
ARGENTINA3
commodity soy producer;
Also, reacted to market 5-YR AVG 2015F
incentives to expand corn ARABLE ACREAGE 67M
production for domestic
CORN 7M
use and export
SOYBEANS 36M
1. USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2015
2. Informa Economics Inc and MBA Associados
3. Encyclopedia of Nations
3
4. OVERVIEW
Global Demand for Corn and Oilseeds Has Been Growing as Finite Acres
Compete to Meet Feed and Fuel Needs
FOCUS: DEMAND
Consumption is increasing reflecting greater global demand for bio-fuels and for feed for increased
protein requirements in markets such as China
WORLD CONSUMPTION OF CORN AND OILSEEDS U.S. CORN USE
Fuel Alcohol = 25% CAGR
OILSEEDS = 5.6% CAGR CORN = 4% CAGR
1200
METRIC TONS (IN MILLIONS)
1000
7%
19% 18%
800
19%
600
12%
14%
400
60%
51%
200
0
2006 = 11.6B bu
2001 = 9.8B bu
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Feed
WORLD CORN CONSUMPTION
Food & Industrial
WORLD OILSEEDS CONSUMPTION
Exports
Sources: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and USDA Fuel Alcohol
4
5. OVERVIEW
Opportunity in Renewable Fuels is Expected to Accelerate Demand for
Corn And Oilseeds Beyond the End of the Decade
U.S. & BRAZIL ETHANOL OUTLOOK
ETHANOL
30 45
ASSUMPTION
BILLIONS OF GALLONS
40
MILLIONS OF ACRES
25
• MTBE replacement
35
by 2010 is the base
20 30
case
25
• Incremental yield
15
20
gains through
10 15
technological
innovations allow
10
5
further substitution
5
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CORN
U.S.
SUGARCANE
BRAZIL
BIODIESEL
4 20
GLOBAL BIODIESEL OUTLOOK
ASSUMPTION
18
BILLIONS OF GALLONS
MILLIONS OF ACRES
3.5
16
• In EU, biodiesel to
3
14
represent 5.75% of
2.5 12
transport fuels by
2 10
2010 with the US
8
1.5 growing up to 2%
6
1
4
0.5 2
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
BIODIESEL PALM
SOYBEAN
RAPESEED & CANOLA
5
Source: Proexporter Network, Pro Mar And Monsanto Estimates
6. OVERVIEW
Advent of New Technologies Has Helped Reduce Yield Volatility
USDA U.S. CORN YIELD
160
AVERAGE YIELD (BU/AC)
140
120
100
80
60
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
1995-2006: YIELD STABILITY
1975-1995: SIGNIFICANT YIELD VARIABILITY
• With the advent of improved
• High variability in per-acre yield
genetics and biotech traits,
• Yield deviation as high as 25 percent from average yield
there is greater consistency in
trend
yield because traits insulate
• Variability largely a result of influence of discrete annual
farmers from extremes of
events, including weather patterns and insect infestations
weather and insect infestations
6
7. OVERVIEW
Because of Focus on Per-Acre Productivity, Seed Is Farmers’
Most Important Decision
U.S. CORN PRODUCTION COSTS PER ACRE
1996 OPERATING COSTS1
2007F
17% SEED 20%
(INCLUDING
TRAITS)
17% CHEMICALS 14%
30% FERTILIZER 31%
SEED (INCLUDING TRAITS)
FERTILIZERS & SOIL AVERAGE YIELD
AVERAGE YIELD 150+ bu/ac
130 bu/ac
CONDITIONERS
PRICE PER
PRICE PER
FUEL & POWER COSTS $3.75-$4.00
$2.82 BUSHEL
BUSHEL
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
CHEMICALS ENTERPRISE
ENTERPRISE 443 acres
438 acres
SIZE
SIZE
CUSTOM OPERATIONS &
TECHNICAL SERVICE
OTHER
1. Excludes “Overhead” costs, including hired labor and opportunity cost of land, etc.
Source: USDA and CBOT
7
8. TRAINING MODULE
The Business of Farming Requires Sound Analysis of
Markets, Economics and Agronomics
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS RECEIPTS $260K - $620K
CRITICAL DECISIONS – FIXED INPUTS
TYPE OF OPERATION Midwest Grain Farm
• Own
• Financing
U.S. FARMING AS A BUSINESS • Cash Flows
LAND:
• Rent
• Large farms have annual receipts >$500K
• Cash Rent
• Share Rent
• Total value of farm assets > $1.6 trillion
• Tractor/Combine/Planter
FACILITIES &
• Custom Applicators/Harvesters
EQUIPMENT:
• Average farm size is 443M acres
• On Farm Storage
CRITICAL DECISIONS – VARIABLE INPUTS
• 94% of U.S. farms are individual or family
• Seed
run
• Chemicals
CROPS TO
• Fertilizer
PLANT:
• Most college level experience • Crop Insurance
• Government Programs
• 2% of the American population feeds the • Cash Price
nation and provides significant exports • Timing & Quantity
MARKETING:
– One in three U.S. acres is planted for • Forward Contract/Hedging
export • Timing & Quantity
Source: Agri Business Group, Inc., 2006 8
9. TRAINING MODULE
Land Values Directly Correlated to Ability to Generate Crops
with Marketable Cash Value
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS RECEIPTS $280K - $620K
VARIABLES TO CONSIDER - LAND:
TYPE OF OPERATION Midwest Grain Farm
ACREAGE PRICE: • $2000 - $5000/acre (Cornbelt)
CRITICAL DECISIONS - LAND:
• Availability and rate
FINANCING: • Estimated cash flows from
How many acres ?
expanded operation
RENTAL
Rent or own ? • Cash Rent: $100-$190/acre
ARRANGEMENTS: • Share Rent: 40-50% of crop
Cash rent or share rent ?
EQUIPMENT • Planter & combine upgrades
REQUIREMENTS: • Precision Farming Technology
Additional equipment requirements ?
• Conservation Reserve Program
GOVERNMENT
Participation in government (CRP)
PROGRAMS:
programs ? • Long Term Outlook on
Supply/Demand
“In general, it is wise to rent as aggressively as labor and equipment
allow and buy as conservatively as an average of the worst years
would indicate.”
Source: Agri Business Group, Inc., 2006 and ispfrmra.org 9
10. TRAINING MODULE
Equipment Purchases Represent Significant Capital
Investment and Ebb and Flow with Commodity Prices
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS RECEIPTS $280K - $620K
TYPE OF OPERATION Midwest Grain Farm
VARIABLES TO CONSIDER - EQUIPMENT:
CURRENT • Cash Flows to Finance New Equipment
CRITICAL DECISIONS - COMMODITY • $2.80 to $4.00/bu corn adds $180K
EQUIPMENT: PRICES: cash/yr for 1000 acres
Cost vs. Benefit:
Rent or own ?
• Estimated reduction of inputs (fertilizer
and seed)
PRECISION
EQUIPMENT: • Optimization of yield through targeted
Upgrade to precision equipment ? application of inputs
• Yield monitors for use in seed selection
choices for next season
Repair or purchase new ?
• Critical with short windows for planting
DEPENDABILITY:
and harvest
Custom application/harvesting ? • Tractor – 4 wheel drive 200-280 hp = $175K
CURRENT • Combine – Self Propelled = $225K
EQUIPMENT
COSTS: • 16 row Planter = $75K
• Plain Grain Drill = $25K
Source: Agri Business Group, Inc., 2006 and IL Agrinews 10
11. TRAINING MODULE
Decision on Crop to Plant Cascades to Multiple Decisions on
Seed, Fertilizer and Options for Weed and Insect Control
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS RECEIPTS $280K - $620K
TYPE OF OPERATION Midwest Grain Farm
CRITICAL DECISION – CROPS:
VARIABLES TO
CORN SOYBEANS
CONSIDER - CROPS:
What to plant ? CURRENT COMMODITY
$3.70-$3.90 /bu $7.80 - $8.25 /bu
PRICES:
How many acres ? AVERAGE YIELDS: 115-175 bu/acre 35-55 bu/acre
FERTILIZER
$30-$85 /acre $0-$40 /acre
REQUIREMENTS:
Soil quality and rotation ?
HERBICIDES: $18-$28 /acre $13-$26 /acre
Government subsidies available ?
INSECTICIDES: $12-$18 /acre $0 /acre
Cost and availability of inputs FUNGICIDES: $0 /acre $0 /acre
required for the crop ?
GOVERNMENT Loan Rate - IL
Loan Rate - IL
PROGRAMS: ~$2.00/bu ~$5.10/bu
History of production on this farm?
Source: Agri Business Group, Inc., 2006, Univ of IL Farm Business Mgmt, CBOT, and Center for Agricultural and Rural Development 11
12. TRAINING MODULE
Growers Hedge Risk on Farm by Purchasing Multiple
Hybrids/Varieties and Brands
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS
PURCHASE PATTERNS
$280K - $620K
RECEIPTS
TYPE OF OPERATION • Plant 3-4 brands and 5-8 different
Midwest Grain Farm
hybrids
• 60% select germplasm first, then
PURCHASE make a decision on biotech traits
STRATEGY: • Decision-making actions: look at
on-farm comparisons (68%), speak
with another farmer (58%), speak
with seed company (58%)
• Purchase from average of 2-3 seed
PURCHASE dealers
FOCUS: SEED PURCHASES
LOGISTICS: • 61% of purchases are made in
Farmers manage risk through November and December
diversification on farm
PLANTING MIX
Number of brands is the practical • 38% planted to latest “top-
YIELD yielding” hybrids
tool used to create genetic diversity
STRATEGY: • 54% planted to consistent
on-farm
performing hybrids
• 28% are first-year hybrids
AGE-MIX
• 30% are second-year hybrids
STRATEGY:
• 42% are third-year or older hybrids
12
13. TRAINING MODULE
Decision on Control of Bugs and Weeds Intertwined with
Seed Decision with Advent of Biotech Traits
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS RECEIPTS $280K - $620K
TYPE OF OPERATION Midwest Grain Farm
FOCUS: COSTS PER ACRE: CENTRAL CORN BELT
Conventional
SEED/TRAIT1 $35.50 $49.00 $45.00 $57.00 $53.00 $58.50 $63.00
RESIDUAL $16.00 $12.00 $16.00 $16.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
HERBICIDE
POST $12.00 $6.00 $12.00 $12.00 $6.00 $6.00 $6.00
HERBICIDE
TOTAL $63.50 $67.00 $82.50 $85.00 $71.00 $76.50 $81.00
SOIL $15.00 $15.00 -- -- $15.00 -- --
INSECTICIDE
$78.50 $82.00 $82.50 $85.00 $86.00 $76.50 $81.00
TOTAL
1. Prices may vary by area. Based on a seed rate of 29,630 seeds/acre of 2.7acres/bag
13
14. TRAINING MODULE
Economic Indicators and Risk Profile of Grower Impacts Crop
Marketing Decisions
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS
$280K - $620K
RECEIPTS
TYPE OF OPERATION Midwest Grain Farm
CASH MARKETS LOCAL REGIONAL NATIONAL
FOR CORN
HOW GRAIN FARMERS SELL WHAT THEY PRODUCE: RIVER SHIPPING
TERMINAL YARD
TYPE ELEVATOR
Direct Cash Basis
New
Quad
Orleans,
Futures Market Cities, IA/IL
Location Peoria, IL LA
Contract with a Processor
Price - $/bu $4.00 $4.05 $4.15
Consume on Farm to Feed Livestock
FUTURES MARKETS FOR CORN
MAY 07 DECEMBER 07
CBOT – 5000 BU = 1 CONTRACT
FUTURES CONTRACTS – CBOT Sells 25 contracts for Buys 25 contracts for $4.00/bu
$3.75/bu
CASH MARKET – LOCAL N/A Sells 125K bu for $4.00/bu
ELEVATOR
ESTIMATED COST PER BU $3.25/bu $3.25/bu
NET GAIN/(LOSS) PER BU $.50/bu ($.25) futures +$.75 elevator = $.50/bu
Source: Agri Business Group, Inc., 2006 14
15. TRAINING MODULE – SOYBEANS EXAMPLE
Year End Financial Statements and Yields Measure
Effectiveness of Decision Making for the Crop Year
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS RECEIPTS $280K - $620K Soybean Production in IL
TYPE OF OPERATION Midwest Grain Farm Bushels Per Acre
Item 35 45 55
Gross Receipts $ 280 $ 360 $ 440
$/bu $ 8.00 $ 8.00 $ 8.00
$45 - $63/acre Total Variable Costs
Fertilizer 25 25 27
System Costs Herbicides 13 26 26
Insecticides 0 0 0
Seed & Trait 32 35 37
Drying and Storage 5 7 8
Machinary Repairs 30 30 30
Crop Insurance 4 4 4
Interest 4 4 4
Total Variable Costs $ 113 $ 131 $ 136
Fixed Costs
FOCUS: SOYBEANS – 1000 ACRES Labor 16 16 16
Building Repair & Depreciation 8 8 8
Low input rotation favored when Marchinary Depreciation 18 18 18
Interest on Investment 22 22 22
fertilizer costs rise and export Overhead (farm insurance/utiliities) 15 15 15
Land (cash rent equivilant) 100 140 190
demand drives up commodity price Total Fixed Costs $ 179 $ 219 $ 269
Yield Drives Farm Profitability Total Costs $ 292 $ 350 $ 405
Net Return/Acre $ (12) $ 10 $ 35
Number of Acres 1000 1000 1000
Total Farm Return $ (12,000) $ 10,000 $ 35,000
Source: Agri Business Group, Inc., 2006 and Univ of IL Farm Business Mgmt 15
16. TRAINING MODULE – CORN EXAMPLE
Year End Financial Statements and Yields Measure
Effectiveness of Decision Making for the Crop Year
ENTERPRISE SIZE 1000 acres
ANNUAL GROSS RECEIPTS $280K - $620K
Corn Production in IL
(Corn Following Corn)
TYPE OF OPERATION Midwest Grain Farm Bushels Per Acre
Item 115 130 155
Gross Receipts $ 460 $ 520 $ 620
$/bu $ 4.00 $ 4.00 $ 4.00
$78-$82/acre Total Variable Costs
Fertilizer 70 76 80
System Costs Herbicides 28 18 18
Insecticides 15 15 0
Seed & Trait 35 49 63
Drying and Storage 15 17 20
Machinary Repairs 36 36 36
FOCUS: CORN – 1000 ACRES Crop Insurance 6 6 6
Interest 6 7 7
Higher Input with Greater Fertilizer Total Variable Costs $ 211 $ 224 $ 230
Requirement and Insect Control Fixed Costs
Labor 22 22 22
Corn favored with Rising Commodity Building Repair & Depreciation 8 8 8
Marchinary Depreciation 22 22 22
Prices Driven by Ethanol Demand Interest on Investment 24 24 24
Overhead (farm insurance/utiliities) 15 15 15
and Low Ending Stocks Land (cash rent equivilant) 100 140 190
Total Fixed Costs $ 191 $ 231 $ 281
Yield Drives Farm Profitability Total Costs $ 402 $ 455 $ 511
Net Return/Acre $ 58 $ 65 $ 109
Number of Acres 1000 1000 1000
Total Farm Return $ 58,000 $ 65,000 $ 109,000
Source: Agri Business Group, Inc., 2006 and Univ of IL Farm Business Mgmt 16