Calyon Conference Slides

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Calyon Conference Slides

  1. 1. Beverly Goulet Vice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer 1
  2. 2. Safe Harbor • Please note that many of our statements, including any comments on matters related to our outlook for revenue and earnings, cost estimates, and forecasts of capacity, traffic, load factor, fuel costs and other matters will constitute forward-looking statements. These matters are subject to a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. These factors include domestic and international economic conditions, commodity prices, general competitive factors including, but not limited to, government regulations, uncertainty in domestic or international operations, acts of war or terrorism, our ability to access the capital markets and changes in the Company's business strategy, any of which could affect our actual results. 2
  3. 3. Safe Harbor (cont.) • Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to our Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2007. • Additionally, please refer to the slide presentation accompanying today’s webcast at www.aa.com for reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measurement we may discuss to what we think is the most appropriate GAAP measurement. 3
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  5. 5. Oil Price $140 $120 1/ $ / Barrel 1/ $100 9/16/08 - $91.15 $80 1/3/07 - $58.32 $60 $40 1/2007 3/2007 5/2007 7/2007 9/200711/2007 1/2008 3/2008 5/2008 7/2008 9/2008 1/ WTI Spot Prices 5
  6. 6. Crack Spread 9/16/08 - $71.90 10/5/05 - $67.62 $70 $60 1/ $ / Barrel 1/ $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 8/2005 12/2005 4/2006 8/2006 12/2006 4/2007 8/2007 12/2007 4/2008 8/2008 1/ Spread between WTI Spot Prices & US Gulf Coast Jet 6
  7. 7. 7
  8. 8. 2Q08 Results Net Earnings (Ex-Special Items 1/) -$284 million Fuel Price Impact on Expenses 2/ $840 million 1/ Exlcudes $1.1 billion in special charges related to aircraft impairment and severance costs 2/ Increase in expense due to year over year change in fuel price 8
  9. 9. 9
  10. 10. Fuel Increases Offset Cost Reductions Cost Reductions 2002 - 2008E $6.0B 2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast 2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast 10
  11. 11. Fuel Hedging • 3Q08 – 39% hedged at $3.11/gal • FY08 – 37% hedged at $2.77/gal Per Eagle Eye 8-K: Sep 18, 2008 Per Eagle Eye 8-K: Sep 18, 2008 11
  12. 12. Fuel Increases Offset Cost Reductions Cost Reductions Fuel Increases 2002 - 2008E 2002 - 2008E $6.0B $6.9B 2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast 2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast 12
  13. 13. 13
  14. 14. New and Modified Fees 1st Checked Bag Fee 2nd Checked Bag Fee Several Domestic Change Fee Hundreds of Confirmed Flight Charge Millions of Int’l Change Fee Dollars Res Service Fee Liquor and Food for Sale 14
  15. 15. 15
  16. 16. 4Q Y-O-Y Scheduled Domestic Mainline Capacity Announcement 4Q Y-O-Y Domestic Date Mainline Capacity 1/16/08 (0.2%) 4/16/08 (4.6%) 5/21/08 (11-12%) 16
  17. 17. Aircraft Retirements 30 MD-80 10 A300 37 Regional Jets 1/ 26 Saabs 103 Total Aircraft 1/ 8 of the 37 regional jet aircraft are non-owned and operated under capacity purchase arrangements 1/ 8 of the 37 regional jet aircraft are non-owned and operated under capacity purchase arrangements 17
  18. 18. 18
  19. 19. Fleet Replacement 19
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  21. 21. Net Debt 18.9 20.0 17.5 17.1 18.0 16.3 16.0 >$8B 13.6 14.0 11.0 12.0 $ Billion 10.1 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2Q08 21
  22. 22. 22
  23. 23. Pension Funding 2003 2007 76% 96% 23
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  25. 25. Alliances Proposed transatlantic antitrust immunity Current transatlantic antitrust immunity Current and proposed transatlantic antitrust immunity * * * * * * * * * * Announced new alliance members 25
  26. 26. 26
  27. 27. Beverly Goulet Vice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer 27

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