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civil aviation futures-fgb_2007

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Here some trends shaping the future of civil aviation

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civil aviation futures-fgb_2007

  1. 1. Civil Aviation Futures Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT proGective / WFSF Incheon Airport – 29 March 2007 progective@progective.com
  2. 2. FGB© 2 contents  futures thinking applied to aviation  what if?  a world in transition  conclusion: structural threads of evolution
  3. 3. about the futures of civil aviation  you said "aviation"?  what if?  trends and uncertainties
  4. 4. FGB© 4
  5. 5. FGB© 5
  6. 6. FGB© 6 Aviation describes the activities, industries, and regulatory bodies associated with aircraft.
  7. 7. FGB© 7 what's next in Aviation?  increase capacity  improve safety and reliability  increase efficiency and performance  reduce energy consumption and environmental impact (noise, pollution)  China, a new challenger for Boeing and Airbus in 2020?  …
  8. 8. 1. thinking the unthinkable wild cards what if?
  9. 9. FGB© 9 a world at war?  traditional war  terrorist war  invisible war (e-Pearl Harbour)  organised piracy
  10. 10. FGB© 10 a technological breakthrough?  gravity control propulsion  automated personal air transport vehicle  teleportation  virtual mobility (second life)
  11. 11. FGB© 11 the end of megalopolis?  megalopolis are the engines fuelling globalisation through the financial flows and the transportation and telecommunication networks they set up
  12. 12. 2. a world in transition
  13. 13. FGB© 13 a change in the world's map cleavages  from West/East, North/South  to westerner/non-westerner  to global cities/remote territories  to peaceful/instable part of the world  to an Asian-oriented world  markets, multinational firms, R&D in S&T, FDI…
  14. 14. FGB© 14 trends by 2030  global convergence  expanding global economy  accelerating pace of scientific change and dispersion technologies  emerging powers; slow democratization and better governance  global aging phenomenon  expanding educated middle class  increased pressures on international institutions for global regulation
  15. 15. FGB© 15 trends by 2030  but  lingering social inequalities  spreading radical ideologies  potential for catastrophic terrorism due to interconnections / interdependences  proliferation of weapons of mass destruction  spreading individual heterogeneity  increasing control over privacy
  16. 16. FGB© 16 so what for aviation?  globalization  increasing flows of information, technology, G&S, capital and people  increasing of the global growth (by 80% in 2020) + improving of the living standards, esp. in emerging countries = huge consuming middle-class  market  but globalisation could be slowed, even stopped by:  new pandemic (influenza 1918-19: 20 millions deaths)  sense of physical and economic insecurity (border controls, restriction on exchanges)
  17. 17. FGB© 17 technology revolution a new steward?  convergence  force-multiplying convergence of the technologies: information, biological, materials, nanotechnologies, etc.  growing two-way flow of high-tech brain power between developing and Western countries  increasing size of educated workforce in some developing countries  dual-use of new technologies  for freedom and for control  for commercial and for military
  18. 18. FGB© 18 technology revolution  but  next leaders in innovation?  China and India's investments in higher education, basic research and R&D −esp. in energy, water and transportation−  Japan's mastering of robotics  wild competition to integrate and apply new technologies, whatever their origin  IPR or open sources?  next leader in setting the rules for design, standards, implementation, privacy, information security…?  source of tension through  competition to create/attract tech-advancing people  resistance of cultural/political groups against pervasiveness
  19. 19. FGB© 19 so what for aviation?  faster and cheaper  L.A. to Tokyo in 4 hours: The Future High-Speed Civil Transport (MACH 3)  The Flying Wing carrying 800 Passengers  small aircraft transportation system for short- range trips for both private and business transportation (flying taxi)  safer  IFATS: a revolutionary concept for a future air transportation system by adding as much onboard autonomy to the aircraft as necessary to fulfil the overall requirements of improved efficiency and safety of air transportation
  20. 20. FGB© 20 evolution of societies  toward a converging society?  emerging refusal of the increasing pressure on the environment and resources  demand for a greater attention to universal human rights, democratic processes and sustainable development  demand for transparency and accountability in the governance systems  sensitivity to diversity, multiculturalism, recognition of minorities; revised values
  21. 21. FGB© 21 evolution of societies  but  increasing violence, incivility, stress  individualism, loneliness  denying traditional authority  widening of the gap between having/having not, info rich/info poor  excessive resistance from highly conservative cultural groups to the standardisation of values  perception of chaos, fragmentation, division due to the cohabitation of different value sets  loss of identity, bearings, etc.
  22. 22. FGB© 22 so what for aviation?  business: co-operation rather than competition, ethical practices, environmental responsibility, collaboration with population prior to decision-making  technology: from carbon tax to electric airships powered by hydrogen  society: hedonism  international tourism or cocooning?
  23. 23. threads of the Big Picture a conclusion
  24. 24. FGB© 24 …new paradigm economy sciences & techniques space politics human rights humanitarian policy right to interfere environment sustainable development ‘glocal’ globalisation mobility multiculturalism invention innovation ethics subsidiarity devolution governance network ‘linkingness’ connection individual society
  25. 25. FGB© 25 converging : the integration continents cultures prehistory n + 5000 years complexity globalization interdependencies noosphere informationinterdisciplinary megalopolis men-machines supra-States sustainable development
  26. 26. FGB© 26 bringing together world government rights of the future generations world common good democracy (liberty, justice) human rights abstract concrete religions ideologies doctrines world public opinion F. GOUX BAUDIMENT© acquired given
  27. 27. FGB© 27 back to the main lines of evolution economy space politics individual/ person society science & technology regulation organisation energy growth adaptation response to a stimuli
  28. 28. FGB© 28 conclusion  you can forget the rest of the world because you will BE the world for the next 20 years  but the next challenge is already beyond 2030 and must be prepared today:  an aviation world market encompassing the entire planet  an human- and environment-friendly aviation system
  29. 29. FGB© 29  A common rule is that nothing new happens unless there is emergency
  30. 30. FGB© 30  Uncertainty, complexity and convergence are the current main megadrivers mapping the road
  31. 31. FGB© 31 Now, chose your destination and fasten your seatbelt!!
  32. 32. FGB© 32 Thank You…

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