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Étude 2018 Arthur D. Little sur l'économie des Télécoms (EN)

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Retrouvez en version anglaise l’étude 2018 d’Arthur D. Little sur l’économie des Télécoms : messages clés et analyses sur l’écosystème numérique mondial et français.

L’étude du cabinet de conseil Arthur D. Little édition 2018 met à jour les indicateurs économiques sur le marché des Télécoms. Vous trouverez les messages clés, les analyses sur l’écosystème numérique mondial et celui de la France.

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Étude 2018 Arthur D. Little sur l'économie des Télécoms (EN)

  1. 1. Fédération Française des Télécoms 2018 « Economics of Telecoms » Report – Update of key economic metrics December 2018
  2. 2. 2 Agenda 1 Evolution of the global digital ecosystem 2 French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark
  3. 3. 3 All regions have been growing at a similar pace since 2014 Source: Thomson Reuters, Arthur D. Little Notes : 1) Constant exchange rate 2017, 1USD = 0,887EUR, 2) Includes top 30 players from everywhere but Asia, North America, and Europe (i.e Oceania and South America) Evolution of the global digital ecosystem 454 443 454 461 458 429 415 446 478 495 842 836 983 983 983 32 2008 1 089 2010 2 715 35 2 908 Europe 2009 46 1 119 1 030 44 55 2011 51 59 1 186 1 213 2012 1 263 1 599 2016 1 301 1 657 2013 1 356 1 390 20172014 1 468 1 459 2015 63 1 486 1 525 68 52 Asia North America 2 311 2 296 Other2 3 046 3 216 3 432 3 552 3 818 2 510 +6% Revenues of the digital ecosystem World, 2008-2017, billions of euros1 +6% +6% +6% +7% CAGR 2014-2017 +6% +1% +8% +9% CAGR 2008-2017
  4. 4. 4 After a low point in 2014, the European digital ecosystem returned to growth, mainly driven by telecom operators Evolution of the global digital ecosystem Revenues of the European digital ecosystem1 Europe, 2008-2017, billions of euros2 -1% -4% +7% +41% +1% CAGR 2008-2017 287 288 292 295 294 283 275 296 312 324 69 60 61 59 52 37 39 40 50 47 25 29 33 33 35 41 43 46 73 72 76 75 75 69 59 62 65 680 1 1 3 4 6 8 Telecom equipment 24 20152008 429 0 23 454 2014 2017 0 0 Telecom operators 2009 20132010 0 0 0 8 9 0 0 2016 495 IT and software services 10 0 Internet Content 2012 Devices 454 0 2011 443 461 458 415 478 446 +1% Source : Thomson Reuters, Arthur D. Little Note : 1) Panel of 180 companies corresponding to the top 30 by sector in terms of turnover 2) Constant exchange rate 2017, 1USD = 0,887EUR +5% +7% +10% +10% +6% CAGR 2014-2017
  5. 5. 5 The ecosystem has caught up with its pre-crisis market capitalization level long ago, with growth driven by the Internet and Software segment Source: Thomson Reuters, Arthur D. Little Note : 1) Constant exchange rate 2017, 1USD = 0,887EUR Evolution of the global digital ecosystem CAGR 2014-2017 Market capitalization by sector World, 2007-2017, billions of euros1 993 417 347 383 420 444 523 724 515 640 797 878 699 614 634 719 868 930 401 405 439 503 579 98 49 325 656 683 990 2011 1 101 1 490 245 2007 Content 1 753 194 2008 218 276 1 725 20172009 1 094143 257 1 708 305 Telecom Operators 2010 1 078 1 212 4 514 156 2 665 240 270240 3 979 2016 326 1 335 211 271 1 136 1 161 2012 2 869 1 030 1 315 2013 1 316 1 465 2014 1 345 2015 275 Telecom Equipment 1 433 1 416IT / Software 1 841 Internet 1 544 1 047 3 703 3 299 3 484 5 106 5 739 6 187 7 410 Devices +1% +13% +13% +11% +12% +13% +45% +6% CAGR 2007-2017 +8% +2% +10% +10% +26% +1%
  6. 6. 6 Agenda 1 Evolution of the global digital ecosystem 2 French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark
  7. 7. 7 83% (+4) 1% (0) 1% (0) 1% (0) 0% (0) 83% (-4) 3% (-1) 7% (+4) 74% (-2) 6% (+2) 3% (0) 4% (0) 52% (-1) 2% (-1) 16% (0) 12% (0) 18% (+2) Telecom operators are essential to the French digital ecosystem 5 content providers 5 Internet OTT players 5 telecom operators 5 equipment vendors 5 device manufacturers Revenues1,2 €74 billion (-€1Bn v. 2016) Direct Employment 163 000 (-3 000 v. 2016) Investments3 €10 billion (+€1Bn v. 2016) Taxes4 €4 billion (+€0,6Bn v. 2016) Relative size of players in the digital ecosystem 2016-2017 France, 2017 (v. 2016) Source : Diane, annual reports, Arthur D. Little Note : 1) Revenues declared in France or from literature search, 2) Data adjusted to take into account the estimated actual turnover of international players in France, 3) Nokia's mobile division investments are integrated into Microsoft following the acquisition of the mobile division in 2014, 4) Corporation tax, taxes and similar disbursements French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark R E I T y compris filiales 13% (0) 7% (+1) 14% (-4)
  8. 8. 8 Telecom operators have faced a sharp increase in their tax rates, as opposed to equipment vendors and internet players Source : Diane, annual reports, Arthur D. Little Note : 1) Corporation tax, taxes and similar disbursements, 2)Revenues declared in France or from literature search, 3) Data adjusted to take into account the estimated actual turnover of international players in France French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark Internet OTT playersTelecom operators Equipment vendors 0,5% Device manufacturers Content providers 6,2% 6,9% 8,1% 2,2% 2,5% 0,2% 5,9% 0,5% 0,6% +1,9 pts +0,3 pts +0,3 pts -1,0 pts +0,1 pts 2013 2017 Taxes1 to Revenues2,3 ratio per type of players France, 2013 v. 2017, % R E I T y compris filiales
  9. 9. 9 The share of telecom services in French households’ spending is low and has decreased over the last years, contrary to other expense items Source : INSEE, Arthur D. Little Share of telecom services expenses in French households’ total spending France, 2008-2017, % of total spending ClothingLeisureTransportation Food OtherHealthcare 9% Housing 15% Telecom services 24% 26% 14% 14% 16% 15% 17% 4% 4% 10% 3% 2% 13%14% 20172008 French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark R E I T
  10. 10. 10 Contrary to other key regulated sectors, telecom services have witnessed a sharp fall in prices over 2010–2017 Source: INSEE, Arthur D. Little Consumer price index evolution on selected products France, 2010–2017, Base 100 in 2010 129 132 114 117 107 62 102 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 20172010 2011 20152012 2013 20162014 Electricity Rail Postal services Inflation City gas Telecom services Highway services French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark R E I T
  11. 11. 11 R E I T Prices of telecom services in France remain the lowest among large Western countries Source: Operators, Arthur D. Little Note: 1) Triple play offers only; unlimited calls to landline at least; unlimited broadband internet through xDSL or fibre; television included, excluding additional packs; operators with market share > 10%, 2) Unlimited calls (whenever possible or else >500 minutes), unlimited SMS/MMS, at least 5 GB Internet; packages without devices, packages without commitment; operators with market share > 10% Offer benchmark – Main operators Selection of countries, November 2018, € incl. taxes/month 9€ 10€ 23€ 60€ 61€ Fixe (Triple Play)1 Mobile2 15€ 23€ 25€ 38€ 40€ 78€ Benchmark Mobile 50 Go French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark NA
  12. 12. 12 Operators increased their investments despite lower turnover, but could not maintain employment levels Source: ARCEP, DARES, Insee, Arthur D. Little Note: 1) Investment efforts: operators’ investments (excluding frequency acquisition)/revenues of operators 2) Provisional ARCEP figures for 2017 3) ARCEP figures 4) ARCEP figures including part of indirect jobs 5) Provisional ARCEP figures for 2017 corresponding to revenues collected from final client Employment, revenues and investments of French telecom operators France, 2010–2017, base 100 in 2010 83 89 83 149 179 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 2010-2017 - 1,6 % - 2,6 % - 2,6 % 5,9 % 8,7 % French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark R E I T Revenues5 Operators’ direct jobs3 Sector jobs4 Operators’ investments (excluding frequency acquisition)2 Investment effort1
  13. 13. 13 Telecom operators’ investments have peaked in 2016 and 2017 – €81 billion were invested over the period Investments of network operators1 France, 2007–2017, billions of euros 3,8 4,3 3,7 4,4 5,0 4,9 4,7 4,7 5,5 6,2 6,6 2,4 2,2 2,2 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,6 2,4 2,3 2,7 3,0 2014201320112007 6,5 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2016 2017 6,2 9,6 6,5 5,9 7,17,3 7,4 7,3 7,8 8,9 €81 billion (excluding frequency acquisition) Before very high speed Investment phase including very high speed + 11% CAGR between 2014 and 2017 Source: ARCEP, Arthur D. Little Note: 1) Investments excluding frequency acquisition French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark R E I T Mobile investments Fixed investments ou 278 TGV trains ou ou ou 6 nuclear power plants 716 high schools 1524 km of highways (i.e Paris - Budapest) 26 Stades de France 2017 investments are equivalent to…
  14. 14. 14 159 (6%)271 (11%) 1 261 (51%) 72 (3%) 133 (5%) 411 (17%) 177 (7%) 2017 Investments keep growing in spite of a heavy specific taxation Source: Operators, FFT, Arthur D. Little Note: 1) Perimeter: corporate tax on top 5 companies (set reconfigured in 2012 with corporate tax corresponding to Numéricable + SFR) & FFT members specific taxes 2) VOD & private copy Telecom operators’ taxation France, 2013 and 2017, millions of euros and % of total taxes 2 484 1 223 (49%) 1 261 (51%) 2013 1 223 (39%) 1 923 (61%) 2017 3 146 Specific tax 2013 Corporate tax +0% +52% Variation 13-17 Corporate tax1 IFER copper IFER antenna TOCE (France TV) Frequencies + FH COSIP (CNC) Other2 French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark 98 (3%) 1 923 (61%) 408 (13%) 118 (4%) 206 (7%) 194 (6%) 199 (6%) R E I T
  15. 15. 15 Increased investments and taxes lead to lower cash flow despite productivity efforts Source: Companies, literature search, ARCEP, Arthur D. Little Note : 1) Top 5 French telecom operators including Orange, SFR, Bouygues Telecom, Free and EI Telecom 2) Estimated operational FCF (EBITDA – CAPEX) 3) ARCEP figures representing sector investments, excluding frequency acquisition 4) Taxes = Corporate + Specific Taxes Economic performance of major French telecom operators1 France, 2013–2017, billions of euros Revenues EBITDA Operational FCF2 2013 2017 40,3 38,9 -3% 2013 2017 13,112,0 +9% 2013 2017 4,7 3,5 -26% 30% 34% 12% 9% x% % of revenues 2017 9,63 2013 7,33 +32% 18% 25% Capex +€1,1billion Of EBITDA French digital ecosystem: dynamics and European benchmark Taxes4 6% 8% 2017 51% 2013 61% 49% 39% 2,5 3,1 +27% Corporate tax Specific tax R E I T +€2,3 billion of investments -€1,2 billion of operational FCF
  16. 16. Client Logo Area Remove borders Fédération Française des Télécoms Contact: Ignacio GARCIA ALVES Global Chief Executive Officer garciaalves.ignacio@adlittle.com Julien DUVAUD-SCHELNAST Principal duvaud-schelnast.julien@adlittle.com Arthur D. Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886. We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking strategy, innovation and transformation in technology-intensive and converging industries. We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to uncover new growth opportunities. We enable our clients to build innovation capabilities and transform their organizations. Our consultants have strong practical industry experience combined with excellent knowledge of key trends and dynamics. Arthur D. Little is present in the most important business centres around the world. We are proud to serve most of the Fortune 1000 companies, in addition to other leading firms and public sector organizations. For further information please visit www.adlittle.com. Copyright © Arthur D. Little 2018. All rights reserved.

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