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Adaptation to Climate Change - Nils Huber

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Adaptation to Climate Change - Nils Huber

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Adaptation to Climate Change - Nils Huber

  1. 1. Santiago de Chile, July 13th, 2017 Dr.-Ing. Nils P. Huber Adaptation to climate change Cambio Climático, un Desafío para la Infraestructura One among several challenges concerning German federal waterways
  2. 2. www.baw.de | Most major cities and important industrial centres are connected to Germany's federal waterways Total gross assets of ca. 50 bn euro More than 2,300 structures Germany has the largest network of waterways in western Europe 227 million tons of goods transported (2013) 9 % Waterway 70 % Road 18 % Rail 3 % Pipeline Total volume transported: German Waterways at a glance 21.07.2017 Seite 2
  3. 3. www.baw.de | Selected current and future challenges concerning German federal waterways BAW – Adaptation to climate change Accessibility of German sea ports for large vessels River continuity / fish passability Waterways management to meet increase in traffic River restoration Ageing of infrastructure River bed incision, sediment quality and management AndreasHilger 21.07.2017 Page 3 Climate Change Effects?
  4. 4. www.baw.de | Key observed and projected climate change and impacts for the main regions in Europe BAW – Adaptation to climate change EuropeanEnvironmentAgency(EEA)-http://www.eea.europa.eu/ 21.07.2017 Page 4
  5. 5. www.baw.de | 2007 Green paper “Adapting to climate change in Europe – options for EU action” (COM(2007) 354) 2013 “An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change” (COM(2013) 216) and e. g. “Adapting infrastructure to climate change” (COM(2013) 137) An EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 5
  6. 6. www.baw.de | Adopted in 2008 by the German Federal Government Aims • Create a national framework for action in order to reduce vulnerability • Increase adaptiveness of the public, natural habitats and the national economy In 2011, the Adaptation Action Plan (APA) was set up within DAS APA–Activities in the fields 1. Providing knowledge, informing, enabling 2. Framework-setting by the German Federal Government 3. Activities for which the Federal Government is directly responsible 4. International responsibilities In 2015, a progress report on DAS and set up the APA II was set up within DAS German Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (DAS) BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 6
  7. 7. www.baw.de | KLIWAS – Impacts of Climate Change on Waterways and Navigation in Germany BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 7 Sectoral research program KLIWAS funded by the Federal Ministry of Transport Duration: 5 years (2009 – 2013) Budget: 18.3 Mio. € Number of projects: 30 Staff-years: 200 (40 staff) Participating governmental departmental research institutes § Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute § Federal Institute of Hydrology § German Maritime and Hydrographic Agency § German Meteorological Service Cooperations and contractings In total 110 on national and international level (adding additional 40 staff-years)
  8. 8. www.baw.de | Key research questions in KLIWAS BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 8 § How will the navigability of inland waterways be affected by changes in discharge regimes? § Will more frequent storms and storm surges negatively affect accessibility of German ports? § What impact will changes have on - cargo capacity and transport costs in inland and coastal areas? - sediment dynamics? - ecological assets? - loads induced by sea state on vessels, structures etc.? § Which adaptation measures can be considered? BMVI (2014): KLIWAS – Concluding report of the BMVI
  9. 9. www.baw.de | Novel model chain approach for inland areas BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 9 Emission scenarios § 17 model runs with SRES Scenario A1B § 3 model runs with ERA-40 reanalysis data GCM: ECHAM5, HadCM3, ARPEGE, BCM2, … RCM: HIRHAM, HadRM, CLM, REMO, RCA, … Hydrological models: LARSIM, HBC, PREVAH, GR4J, GR5J, … Hydro- and morphodynamic models: SOBEK, TELEMAC, … Multi-model approach Ensemble of model chain results and options for adaptation BMVI (2014): KLIWAS – Concluding report of the BMVI
  10. 10. www.baw.de | Reference period 1961 to 1990 Projected changes in air temperature and precipitation BMVI (2014): KLIWAS – Concluding report of the BMVI & Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 10 Dry summers Wet winters
  11. 11. www.baw.de | The River Rhine BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 11 Rhine at Karlsruhe NQ: 575 m³/s MQ: 1,250 m³/s HQ100: 5,300 m³/s Rhine at Dutch-German border NQ: 950 m³/s MQ: 2,300 m³/s HQ100: 12,200 m³/s Upper Rhine Overall length: 1,230 km Middle Rhine Lower Rhine
  12. 12. www.baw.de | MQ summer MQ winter Impacts on the hydrology of the Rhine river basin BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 12 Mean flow § MQ is projected to increase in near and distant future § MQwinter is the driver of the overall increase in MQ Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01
  13. 13. www.baw.de | MQ summer MQ winter Low flow conditions: § Slightly lower frequency in near future § Increased frequency in far future Impacts on the hydrology of the Rhine river basin BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 13 NM7Q Mean flow § MQ is projected to increase in near and distant future § MQwinter is the driver of the overall increase in MQ NM7Q – The lowest arithmetic mean of 7 consecutive daily values of discharge in a low water period Small floods: More often in the near and in the distant future Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01
  14. 14. www.baw.de | Results from the model chain / ensemble runs Frequency and duration of low water periods is expected to increase in the distant future (2071–2100) Must we expect adverse effects on navigation? Situation in the Middle Rhine Valley BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 14 Middle Rhine near Oberwesel during low flow (31.05.2011)
  15. 15. www.baw.de | 1. Will more bottlenecks in terms of possible draught develop in the future? à Numerical 2D-hydrodynamic investigations and sensitivity analyses for current and projected low water discharges Findings § No trends for the near future § Expected intensification of bottle necks in the distant future 2. Will climate change induce changes in morphodynamic characteristics and in dredged sediment quantities? à Numerical 2D-morphodynamic simulations (using 13 projected hydrographs) Findings § No trends for the near future § Increased dredged sediment to guarantee the fairway depth in distant future àIdentification and investigation of potential adaptation measures necessary! Questions and objectives of investigation in the field of river engineering BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 15 Sedimentation in fairway Increase in dredged quantities
  16. 16. www.baw.de | § River training structures (groynes and longitudinal dams) in order to increase shear stress and sediment transport capacity § River training and regulating measures for raising of water levels (and, thus, increasing of navigable depth) Here exemplary: Temporary closing of a river branch during low water (Rhine-km 546.0) § Adaptation of the fairway (position, width, depth etc.) Potential river engineering adaptation measures BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 16 Reduction of avaiable fairway width
  17. 17. www.baw.de | Currently transported goods on the Rhine 170 Mill. t/a (Dutch-German border) to 25 Mill. t/a (Upper Rhine) Number of vessels per day ~ 600 (Dutch-German border) to ~ 100 (Upper Rhine) Transport costs (on average) > 600 Mio. €/a Transport costs on the Rhine Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 17 Near future River station [km]
  18. 18. www.baw.de | Currently transported goods on the Rhine 170 Mill. t/a (Dutch-German border) to 25 Mill. t/a (Upper Rhine) Number of vessels per day ~ 600 (Dutch-German border) to ~ 100 (Upper Rhine) Transport costs (on average) > 600 Mio. €/a Transport costs on the Rhine Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 18 = „optimistic“ climate change szenario = „pessimistic“ cliamte change szenario Decrease in costs ~15 Mio. €/a (~ 2%) Increase in costs ~60 Mio. €/a (~ 9%) Increase in costs ~30 Mio. €/a (~ 5%) Increase in costs ~25 Mio. €/a (~ 4%) Near future Distant futureRiver station [km]
  19. 19. www.baw.de | Basic scenario Pessimistic projection of climate change Transport cost reduction through adaptation measures Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 19 River station [km]
  20. 20. www.baw.de | Basic scenario Pessimistic projection of climate change Basic scenario + innovation / adaptation in shipping industry à optimized navigation à adapted shipping operations à changed fleet structures à company logistics Transport cost reduction through adaptation measures Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 20 River station [km]
  21. 21. www.baw.de | Basic scenario Pessimistic projection of climate change Basic scenario + innovation / adaptation in shipping industry à optimized navigation à adapted shipping operations à changed fleet structures à company logistics Basic scenario + river training on the Middle Rhine Transport cost reduction through adaptation measures Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 21 River station [km]
  22. 22. www.baw.de | Basic scenario Pessimistic projection of climate change Basic scenario + innovation / adaptation in shipping industry à optimized navigation à adapted shipping operations à changed fleet structures à company logistics Basic scenario + river training on the Middle Rhine Basic scenario + innovation / adaptation in shipping industry + river training on the Middle Rhine Transport cost reduction through adaptation measures Nilson et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.01 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 22 River station [km] Increase in transport costs can be cut by ~50 %
  23. 23. www.baw.de | Other findings for the Rhine (exemplary) Hardenbicker et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 5.02 & Roberts et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Project 4.02 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 23 Sediment balance and river bed evolution Maintenance strategy has larger influence than effects from climate change Water quality § Low direct impacts (on oxygen balance and algae) from water temperature rise. § Possible secondary impacts (food chain etc.).
  24. 24. www.baw.de | Results for German marine and coastal (estuarine) waters of the North Sea Seiffert et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Projects 2.04 / 3.02 BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 24 Simulated change of tidal range resulting from a sea level rise of 0.80 m Greater divergence between high and low tide current velocities increases upstream transport of sediments into rivers Hamburg Bremen Elbe Estuary Weser Estuary Ems Estuary Ems Storm Surge Gate
  25. 25. www.baw.de | Investigation of adaptation measures in the Ems Estuary BAW – Adaptation to climate change Results § Installation of a ground sill reduces suspended sediment transport into the Ems during a tidal cycle § A ground sill also reduces the extent of the brackish water zone Seiffert et al. (2014): Final Report KLIWAS-Projects 2.04 / 3.02 21.07.2017 Page 25 Ems Storm Surge Gate
  26. 26. www.baw.de | Conclusions and outputs from KLIWAS BAW – Adaptation to climate change Outlook and recommendations § Vigilance towards change (in general) is important on the long term § Strengthening of the climate services (e. g. meteorological and hydrological) of the federal authorities for both inland and coastal areas. § Further networking of BMVI’s departmental research institutes is desirable, in order to adopt new findings on climate change in relation to all modes of transport 21.07.2017 Page 26 Immediate effects of climate change will not have any significant impacts on waterways and navigation.
  27. 27. www.baw.de | Sectoral research program funded by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) Duration: 4 years (2016 – 2019 ... continued?) Budget: approx. 30 Mio. € Number of projects: 18 Staff: 65 staff Initial topics 1. Adapting transport and infrastructure to climate change and extreme weather events 2. Designing environmentally friendly transport and infrastructure 3. Increasing the reliability of transport infrastructures. Further topics to be addressed 4. Consistently developing and using digital technologies 5. Enhanced development of renewable energy in transport and infrastructure BMVI Network of Experts: Knowledge – Ability – Action BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 27
  28. 28. www.baw.de | Adapting transport and infrastructure to climate change and extreme weather events BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 28 Flood hazards Storm hazards Landslides Navigability and water quality Adaptation options Provision of meteorologic / oceanographic / hydrologic data (observed and projected) Scenario generation
  29. 29. www.baw.de | Network of Experts’ topic “Increasing the reliability of transport infrastructures” BAW – Adaptation to climate change AgeingofinfrastructureisaconsiderableissueinGermany(roads–railroads –waterways) 21.07.2017 Page 29 BMVI (2016): Bundesverkehrswegeplan 2030 Types of structures New construction or overhaul necessary within 10 years Locks 50 Weirs 30 Culverts 30 Bridges 110 Increasing the reliability of transport infrastructures… … and make them climate proof!
  30. 30. www.baw.de | Selected current and future challenges concerning German federal waterways BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 30 • Climate change is one out of many challenges! • Challenges concerning German federal waterways might be amplified by climate change!
  31. 31. www.baw.de | § Adaptation to climate change introduced into the administrative structure of the WSV § Administrative directive: Assessment of potential climate change impacts already on the level of preliminary investigations of measures § Pilots on climate proofing of waterways § Pilot: Climate and Water - Projection Service for Waterways and Navigation (ProWaS) as regular federal forecasting and projection service for climate, water resources and extreme events § Development of a code of practice on the Consideration of potential effects from climate change on waterways in preparation Climate change in the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 31 Code of practice
  32. 32. www.baw.de | Setting up of climate related services within DAS / APA II in Germany BAW – Adaptation to climate change 21.07.2017 Page 32 1. Adaptation monitoring 2. Research on climate, vulnerability and risks 3. Measures and instruments for policy making 4. Providing knowledge, information, qualification 1. Climate monitoring 2. Research and development (R&D) 3. Information systems 4. User communication 5. Capacity building Federal inter-ministerial working group “Adaptation Strategy“ German Climate Service (DKD) Information and services on climate • Network of partners • User • Tools (German Climate Portal, Userforum, German Climate Atlas) Lead: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure Services to support adaptation to climate change (KlimAdapt) Information and services on adaptation to climate change • Network of partners • User • Tools (ClimatePilot, Database of actions, newsletter, stakeholder dialogues) Lead: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety Research environment, fundamental research, sectoral (applied) research Adaptation strategy of the federal states Regional / municipal adaptation strategy German Climate Consortium (DKK)
  33. 33. Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany www.baw.de Thank you for your attention Muchas gracias por su atención

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