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Desemprego na RMPA: uma comparação entre 1998-1999 e 2015-2016

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O aspecto que mais preocupa do mercado de trabalho brasileiro na presente conjuntura de crise econômica é o desemprego. De acordo com a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), divulgada em janeiro de 2017, estima-se que o Brasil tinha 11,76 milhões de pessoas desocupadas em 2016, o que corresponde a uma taxa de desocupação de 11,5%.

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Desemprego na RMPA: uma comparação entre 1998-1999 e 2015-2016

  1. 1. Desemprego na RMPA: uma comparação entre 1998-1999 e 2015-2016 Raul Luís Assumpção Bastos NASEE – CPED-RMPA
  2. 2. Consideração introdutória O aspecto que mais preocupa do mercado de trabalho no Brasil na presente conjuntura de crise econômica é o desemprego. De acordo com a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua do IBGE, divulgada em janeiro de 2017, estima-se que o Brasil tinha 11,76 milhões de pessoas desocupadas em 2016, o que corresponde a uma taxa de desocupação de 11,5%.
  3. 3. Taxa de desocupação no Brasil: 2012-2016 7,4 7,1 6,8 8,5 11,5 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (%) FONTE: Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua – IBGE.
  4. 4. Contingente de desocupados no Brasil: 2012-2016 FONTE: Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua – IBGE. 7.100 6.969 6.743 8.585 11.760 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (1.000 pessoas)
  5. 5. Objetivo O texto se propõe tratar do desemprego na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre (RMPA), comparando-o na crise de 2015 e 2016 com o seu momento antecedente de maior gravidade, que se deu nos anos de 1998 e 1999. Esta comparação torna-se possível pelo fato de o trabalho utilizar dados da Pesquisa de Emprego e Desemprego na RMPA (PED-RMPA), que hoje se constitui na mais longa série histórica da Região, com médias anuais dos seus indicadores, de forma ininterrupta, de 1993 até o presente.
  6. 6. Taxa de desemprego total Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1993-2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 1993 1998 1999 2015 2016 (%) Comparação
  7. 7. Taxa de desemprego total na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 15,9 19,0 0,0 4,0 8,0 12,0 16,0 20,0 1998 1999 (%) 8,7 10,7 0,0 4,0 8,0 12,0 16,0 20,0 2015 2016 (%) FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT.
  8. 8. Contingente de desempregados na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 251 316 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1998 1999 (1.000 pessoas) 169 202 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2015 2016 (1.000 pessoas)
  9. 9. Quando se coteja o comportamento da População Economicamente Ativa (PEA) – uma proxy de oferta de força de trabalho – e o da ocupação, nos dois períodos que estão sendo analisados, é possível avançar no conhecimento do que está subjacente à elevação do desemprego em cada um deles.
  10. 10. Variações anuais dos contingentes de População Economicamente Ativa, ocupados e desempregados, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998 e 1999 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 107 53 54 89 24 65 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 PEA Ocupados Desempregados (1.000 pessoas) 1998 1999
  11. 11. Variações anuais dos contingentes de População Economicamente Ativa, ocupados e desempregados, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 25 -31 56 -50 -83 33 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 PEA Ocupados Desempregados (1.000 pessoas) 2015 2016
  12. 12. Variações anuais dos contingentes de População Economicamente Ativa, ocupados e desempregados, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 107 89 53 24 54 65 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1998 1999 (1.000 pessoas) PEA Ocupados Desempregados 25 -50 -31 -83 56 33 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2015 2016 (1.000 pessoas) PEA Ocupados Desempregados
  13. 13. Taxas médias anuais de crescimento da População em Idade Ativa e da População Economicamente Ativa, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1993-2000, 2001-2010 e 2011-2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 2,44 1,39 0,70 2,91 1,21 -0,76-1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 1993/2000 2001/2010 2011/2016 (%) PIA PEA
  14. 14. Taxa de participação na força de trabalho, idosos de 60 anos ou mais, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 14,0 16,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 1998 1999 (%) 15,7 15,2 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 2015 2016 (%) FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT.
  15. 15. Proporção de idosos de 60 anos ou mais na População em Idade Ativa, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 11,1 11,4 0,0 4,0 8,0 12,0 16,0 20,0 24,0 1998 1999 (%) 20,7 21,3 0,0 4,0 8,0 12,0 16,0 20,0 24,0 2015 2016 (%)
  16. 16. Taxas médias anuais de crescimento da população e da População Economicamente Ativa, jovens de 16 a 24 anos, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1993-2000, 2001-2010 e 2011-2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 3,04 -0,68 -0,84 3,09 -0,94 -3,92 -5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 1993/2000 2001/2010 2011/2016 (%) População PEA
  17. 17. População Economicamente Ativa, total e de jovens de 16 a 24 anos, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1993-2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. NOTA: Na tabela, estimativas em 1.000 pessoas. 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Índices – Base: 1993=100) PEA Total PEA Jovens Ano PEA Jovens 1993 341 2004 442 2016 307
  18. 18. Variações anuais do contingente de População Economicamente Ativa, jovens de 16 a 24 anos, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 46 31 0 10 20 30 40 50 1998 1999 (1.000 pessoas) 1 -21 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 2015 2016 (1.000 pessoas)
  19. 19. Taxa de participação na força de trabalho, jovens de 16 a 24 anos, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 66,5 69,6 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 1998 1999 (%) 61,6 57,6 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 2015 2016 (%)
  20. 20. Questão Quais seriam as taxas de desemprego na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre em 2015 e 2016, se as taxas de participação na força de trabalho fossem as de 1998 e 1999?
  21. 21. FONTE: Panorama Laboral América Latina y el Caribe. Lima: OIT, 2014. Taxa de Desemprego Fórmula Tradicional Fórmula Alternativa Desempregados X 100 1 Taxa de Ocupação X 100 População Economicamente Ativa Taxa de Participação na Força de Trabalho Taxa de Ocupação = (Ocupados/População em Idade Ativa) X 100 Taxa de Participação na Força de Trabalho = (População Economicamente Ativa/População em Idade Ativa) X 100
  22. 22. Taxas de participação na força de trabalho na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 56,7 58,3 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 1998 1999 (%) 54,7 53,1 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 2015 2016 (%)
  23. 23. Simulação da taxa de desemprego total na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 8,7 11,9 10,7 18,7 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 2015 2015 Simulação 2016 2016 Simulação (%)
  24. 24. Questão Quais seriam as taxas de desemprego na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre em 1998 e 1999, se as taxas de participação na força de trabalho fossem as de 2015 e 2016?
  25. 25. Simulação da taxa de desemprego total na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998 e 1999 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 15,9 12,9 19,0 11,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 1998 1998 Simulação 1999 1999 Simulação (%)
  26. 26. Taxas de ocupação na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 47,7 47,3 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 1998 1999 (%) 49,9 47,4 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 2015 2016 (%)
  27. 27. Características selecionadas do desemprego
  28. 28. Taxas de desemprego, por tipo, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 7,6 9,4 1,1 1,3 0,0 4,0 8,0 12,0 16,0 20,0 2015 2016 (%) Aberto Oculto 11,2 12,1 4,7 6,9 0,0 4,0 8,0 12,0 16,0 20,0 1998 1999 (%) Aberto Oculto
  29. 29. Razão entre a taxa de desemprego aberto e a taxa de desemprego oculto, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 2,4 1,8 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 1998 1999 6,9 7,2 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 2015 2016
  30. 30. Composição do desemprego, por tipo, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 70,2 63,5 29,8 36,5 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 1998 1999 (%) Aberto Oculto 87,0 88,4 13,0 11,6 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 2015 2016 (%) Aberto Oculto
  31. 31. Tempo médio de procura por trabalho dos desempregados, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 9,6 11,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 1998 1999 (Meses) 5,7 8,3 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 2015 2016 (Meses)
  32. 32. Proporção de desempregados com tempo de procura de trabalho superior a 12 meses, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 18,0 21,6 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 1998 1999 (%) 5,5 10,8 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 2015 2016 (%)
  33. 33. Proporção de desempregados com ensino fundamental incompleto, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 48,1 47,7 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 1998 1999 (%) 23,6 21,1 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 2015 2016 (%)
  34. 34. Proporção de desempregados com ensino médio completo, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 21,7 21,1 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 1998 1999 (%) 41,8 42,4 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 2015 2016 (%)
  35. 35. Taxa de desemprego dos indivíduos com ensino fundamental incompleto e com médio completo, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 18,9 22,2 12,7 15,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 1998 1999 (%) Fundamental incompleto Médio completo 11,1 12,1 8,2 10,3 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 2015 2016 (%) Fundamental incompleto Médio completo
  36. 36. Razão entre a taxa de desemprego dos indivíduos com ensino fundamental incompleto e a dos com médio completo, na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – 1998, 1999, 2015 e 2016 FONTE: PED-RMPA – Convênio FEE, FGTAS, SEADE, DIEESE e apoio MTE/FAT. 1,49 1,48 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1998 1999 1,35 1,17 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 2015 2016
  37. 37. Fundação de Economia e Estatística Siegfried Emanuel Heuser Rua Duque de Caxias, 1691 Centro Histórico, Porto Alegre CEP: 90010-283 (51) 3216.9000 NASEE/CPED-RMPA/FEE Apresentador: Raul Luís Assumpção Bastos (Economista/FEE) bastos@fee.tche.br

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