20111126 mankie economics chapter23


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20111126 mankie economics chapter23

  1. 1. 1 Contents of Macro Economics •  PartⅧ The data of Macro economics –  Chapter23 Measuring Nation's Income –  Chapter24 Measuring the Cost of Living •  PartⅨ The Real Economy in the long Run –  Chapter25 Production and Growth –  Chapter26 Saving,Investment,and the Financial System –  Chapter27 The Basic Tools of Finance –  Chapter28 Unemployment •  PartⅩ Money and Prices in the Long Run –  Chapter29 Monetary System –  Chapter30 Money Growth and Inflation
  2. 2. 2 Contents of Macro Economics •  PartⅩⅠ The Macroeconomics of Open Economies –  Chapter31 Open-Economy Macroeconomics:Basic Concepts –  Chapter32 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy •  PartⅩⅡ Short Run Economic Fluctuations –  Chapter33 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply –  Chapter34 The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand –  Chpter35 The Short-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment •  PartⅩⅢ Final Thoughts –  Chapter36 Six Debates over Macroeconomics Policy
  3. 3. 3 Ten Principles of Economics Ⅰ.How People Make Decisions. 1:People Face Trade-offs. 2:The Cost of Something Is What You Give Up to Get It. 3:Rational People Think at the Margin. 4:People Respond to Incentives. Ⅱ.How People Interact. 5:Trade Can Make Everyone Better Off. 6:Markets Are Usually a Goodway to Organize Economic Activity. 7:Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes. Ⅲ.How the Economy as a Whole Works 8:A Country's Standard of Living Depends on its Ability to Produce Goods and Services. 9:Prices Rise When the Government Prints Too Much Money. 10:Society Faces a Short-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment
  4. 4. 4 Chapter23 Measuring a Nation's Income 1.  The Economy's Income and Expenditure 2.  The Measurement of Gross Domestic Product 3.  The Components of GDP 4.  Real versus Nominal 5.  Is GDP a Good Measure of Economic Well-Being?
  5. 5. 5 MicroEconomics and MacroEconomics ■Microeconomics:the study of how individual households and firms make decisions and how they interact with one another in markets. ■Macroeconomics: the study of economy as a whole. Paul Krugman Ben Bernanke John Forbes Nash Amartya Sen John Maynard Keynes Milton Friedman
  6. 6. 6 Diverse Questions from MacroEconomist •  Why is average income high in some countries while it is low in others? •  Why do prices sometimes rise rapidly while at other times they are more stable? •  Why do production and employment expand in some years and contract in others? •  What can the government do to promote rapid growth in incomes,low inflation,and stable employment?
  7. 7. 7 Various Macroeconomic Indicators •  GDP •  Inflation rates •  Money Stock •  Interest rates •  Exchange rates •  Stock rates •  Unemployment rates •  Economic Growth rates etc
  8. 8. 8 1. The Economy's Income and Expenditure Firms House Hold Markets fotr factors of production Markets for goods and service Flow of money Flow of inputs and outputs Factors of production Wage,rent,and profit(=GDP) Income (=GDP) Labor,land and capital Revenue (=GDP) Spending (=GDP) Goods and services bought Goods and service sold
  9. 9. 9 2.The Measurement of Gross Domestic Product Gross domestic product(GDP) is the market value of all final goods and service produced with in a country in a given period of time GDPとは、ある一定期間において、ある国で生産された すべての最終の財・サービスの市場価値(付加価値合計額) である。
  10. 10. 10 Meanings of GDP ①"GDP is the market value" ②"of all" ③"Final" ④"goods and service" ⑤"produced" ⑥"with in a country" ⑦"in a given period of time"
  11. 11. 11 Example of GDP measurent 生産主体 生産総額 中間投入 石油輸入 付加価値 農家 20 0 5 15 製粉所 40 20 10 10 製パン会社 80 40 15 25 計 140 60 30 50 ・GDPは50兆円となる。 ・生産総額140兆円では20兆円と40兆円がダブルカウントされている。 ・パンの最終的な合計価格は80兆円だが、そのうちの30兆円分は石油の輸入 による。 ・日本国内での付加的には50兆円しか価値を作っていない。
  12. 12. 12 3 The components of GDP Y= C + I + G + NX(=EX-IM) ①Comsumption: Spending by house hold on goods and service. ②Investment: The purchase of goods that will be used in the future to produce more good and services. ③Government Purchases: Spending on goods and Services by local,state, and federal governments. ④Net exports: The foreign purchase of domestically produced goods(exports) minus the domestic purchases of foreign goods(imports)
  13. 13. 13 The components of Real GDP in Japan 単位:10億 GDP 2010/4-3. 539,122 民間最終消費支出 306,839 民間住宅 12,534 民間企業設備 73,584 民間在庫品増加 -1,773 政府最終消費支出 102,984 公的固定資本形成 18,966 公的在庫品増加 222 純輸出 26,856 輸出 85,169 輸入 58,312
  14. 14. 15 4. Real versus Nominal GDP If total spending rises from one year to the next ①the economy is producing a larger output of goods and services ②goods and services are being sold at higher prices. →Economists want to separate these two effects. ・Real GDP:Using constant base year prices to place value on the economy's production of goods and services. ・Nominal GDP:Using current prices to place value on the economy's production of goods and services.
  15. 15. 16 A Numerical Example year price of hot dogs Quantity of hot dogs price of Hamburgers Quantity of Hamburgers 2010 (base year) ¥100 100 ¥200 50 2011 ¥200 150 ¥300 100 2012 ¥300 200 ¥400 150 hot dogs Hamburgers sum ① 2010 10,000 10,000 20,000 ② 2011 30,000 30,000 60,000 ③ 2012 60,000 60,000 120,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 hot dogs Hamburgers sum ④ 2010 10,000 10,000 20,000 ⑤ 2011 15,000 20,000 35,000 ⑥ 2012 20,000 30,000 50,000 45,000 60,000 105,000 Calculating Nonimal GDP Calculating Real GDP(base year=2010) ・Our goal is to gauge how well the overall economy's production of goods and services. ・Real GDP is a better gauge of economic well-being than is nominal GDP.
  16. 16. 17 GDP deflator GDP deflator = Nominal GDP Real GDP × 100 ■Nominal GDP and Real GDP Nominal GDP:reflecting both the quantities of goods and services the economy is producing and the prices of those goods and services. Real GDP:reflecting only the quantities produced. ■GDP deflator measures ・the current level of prices relative to the level of prices in the base year ・the average level of prices in the economy and thus the rate of inflation. ■GDP deflator
  17. 17. 18 5 Is GDP a Good Measure of 
 Economic Well-Being? ・GDP excludes almost all activities transacted by out of markets. ・GDP does not explain a distribution of income at all. ・GDP excludes the quality of the environment
  18. 18. 19 Measuring the Cost of Living 1.  The Consumer Price Index 2.  Correcting Economic Variables for the Effects of Inflation
  19. 19. 20 Which enjoyed 
 a higher standard of Living? In 1931, paid $80,000 In 2011, paid $33million
  20. 20. 21 1.Consumer Price Index
 How the CPI is Calculated Step 1) Fix the basket 2) Find the prices 3) Compute the basket's cost 4) Choose a base year and compute the index 5) Compute the inflation rate CPI= Price of basket of goods and services in current year Price of basket in base year Inflation rate in year2= CPI in year2-CPI in year 1 CPI in year1 ×100 ×100
  21. 21. 22 Numerical example of CPI
  22. 22. 23 Problems in Measuring the cost of Living •  Substitution Bias –  CPI ignores the possibility of consumer substitution •  Introduction of new goods –  CPI does't reflect the increaes in the value of the dollar that arises from the introduction of new goods. •  Unmeasured quality change –  Quality is so hard to measure
  23. 23. 24 GDP deflator VS CPI object comparison CPI the prices of all goods and services produced domestically the price of basket in the base year GDP deflator the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers. the price of currently produced goods services to the price of the same goods and service in the base year.
  24. 24. Time series of CPI in Japan
  25. 25. 26 2. Correcting Economic Variables 
 for the Effects of Inflation •  Dollar figures from different times Amount in today's dollars=Amount in year T dollars× Price level today Price level in year T Salary in 2009 dollars =Salary in 1931 dollars× Price level 2009 Price level in 1931 =$80,000× 214.5 15.2 =$1,128,947
  26. 26. 27 Real and Nominal Interest rates Real interest rate=Nominal interest rate-Inflation rate (Fisher formula )
  27. 27. 28 Our Strategy in the Upcoming Chapters 1.  Looking at the long run determinants of real GDP related variables:saving,investment,real interest rate,and unemployment 2.  Looking at the long run determinants of the price level related variablels:money supply,inflation,and nominal interest rates. 3.  Examing the more complex question of what causes short- run fluctations in real GDP and the price level.
  28. 28. 29 Conclusion:
 What is a role of MacroEconomics 生活する中で我々は「なんとなく」は経済の状況がわかる。 しかし、エコノミストや政策立案者はこの「なんとなく」以上のものが求められる。 そのためにはGDPといった統計指標で経済の動向を計量化することが第一歩 である。 (1987年のクラッシュの後)ある指導的な 銀行家がこうたずねた。 「いったい、街のどこに血の跡が残っている というのかね。」 まったく的を射た表現である。 第12代連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)議長ポール・ボルカー
  29. 29. 30 Appendix1:マクロエコノミックコンセンサス 1.  マクロ経済の生産、支出、所得の指標である実質GDPが、マクロ経済の経済厚生を測る最 も重要な尺度である。 2.  GDPの長期的な水準(潜在GDP)は、基本的に資本蓄積、労働力、生産技術による決定され る。特に、技術革新が経済成長の原動力となる。 3.  何らかの市場メカニズムの限界で、実際のGDPが潜在GDPを一時的に下回る不況に陥るこ とがある。その場合、財政政策や金融政策などのマクロ経済政策によって総需要を刺激し、 実際のGDPを潜在GDPにまで引き上げることは、理論的にも、実際的にも十分に正当化で きる。 4.  しかし、マクロ経済政策には、潜在GDP自体を増大させる効果がまっくない。それにも関わ らず、過度なマクロ経済政策によって、潜在GDPを維持しようとすると、マクロ経済は激しい インフレーションに見舞われる。その意味で財政政策や金融政策の節度を保つことが重要 である。                                 齋藤ほか(2009)「マクロ経済学」有斐閣より
  30. 30. 31 Appendix2:ディスカッションテーマ例 ・経済成長は人々の幸福につながるのか? ・GDPに含まれない要因をどのように評価すればよいのか? ・何が経済を成長させるのか?
  31. 31. 32 Appendix3:マクロ経済学は存在しない?? 「現在の学界においてマクロ経済学という学問分野は 事実上存在していない」 加藤涼(2007)「現代マクロ経済学講義)P5」
  32. 32. 33 Appendix4:参考文献 (読み物) 小島寛之(2010)「使える!経済学の考え方」ちくま新書 齊藤誠他(1999)「経済政策とマクロ経済学」日本経済新聞社 アカロフ/シラー(2009)「アニマルスピリッツ」東洋経済 ダイアンコイル(2008)「ソウルフルな経済学」インターシフト (教科書) 中谷巌(2009)「入門マクロ経済学」日本評論者 細野薫(2009)「今こそ学ぼうマクロ経済学」日本評論者 齊藤誠他(2009)「マクロ経済学」 清水谷諭(2005)「期待と不確実性の経済学」日本経済新聞社 加藤涼(2007)「現代マクロ経済学講義」 D.Romer(2004)「Advanced Macro Economics」McGRAW HiLL