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Viking vi cisi


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Viking vi cisi

  1. 1. ViCiSi - The Virtual City Simulator Dynamic cost assessment related to outages in critical infrastructure by assessing Societal Activities EffectPlus Amsterdam July 4—5 2011 Tekn. Lic Mats B-O Larsson MML Analys & Strategi 1
  2. 2. Who am I?   Mats B-O Larsson   Consultant, MML Analys & Strategi AB   Chairman of the Board of Directors of Telge Energi Nät AB (A Swedish mid sized Infrastructure Distribution Company -  Water And Sewage, -  Electrical Grid, -  District Heating, -  Broadband   Chairman of the Board of Directors of Lyckeby Research Foundation   Member of the Board of Directors of Lyckeby Starch AB (a global Starch Producer)   Member of the Board of Directors of Culinar AB (a global Starch Producer)   Tech. Lic. of Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, 2005   M.Sc., (Engineering Physics), Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, 2
  3. 3. “Microorganisms” arethe greatest threats … … to our Critical  1) Microorganisms, such as viruses infrastructure and bacteria, which infects our water distribution systems   Electrical Power Grid   Not necessary from antagonists   Telecommunications   More probable by carelessness and   Payment systems lack of hygiene within the water distribution system   Water and sewage  2) Cyberorganisms which infects our power grid SCADA systems   Antagonist threats by trojans, viruses, Denial of Service attacks, etc. 3
  4. 4. Assessment of social costs after an outage in critical infrastructure   We need methods to assess the costs to the society from disturbances in the critical infrastructure   To optimize our investments to mitigate outages   The two common ways to measure social outage costs are:   Alt. 1 Assess the consumers preferences:   Ask the customer! Customer surveys are the most common. There are a number of surveys done in most countries. Many problems!   Alt. 2 Assess the decrease of activity in the society:   Asses the GDP influence   The drawback is that it requires a profile of the activities in the 4
  5. 5. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement of economic activities in a society   The economic activity in a society is best described by the Gross Domestic Product   GDP is measured in three alternative perspectives: 1) Production perspective, 2) End- use (consumption) perspective and 3) Distribution perspective   The cost of an outage in the power supply can be measured as the reduction in one GDP- perspective   However, it is important to be aware of which perspective the cost measurement concerns   Costs from two perspectives can’t be added to get a total cost.   Business activity is measured in the Production perspective   Household activity is measured in the End-use perspective   Thus:   Outage costs ≠ OutageCostBusiness + 5
  6. 6. Activity Profiles in a Society  To assess the decrease of activity in the society we need a sum of all economic activities in an undisturbed society, collected from each individual object, to get an aggregated Activity Profile for a Society i.e. a function, b(t), which reflects the societal activity at every a single operation at every moment, such as ∫one year b(t) dt = GDPEUR/h One year There are no publicly available Business profiles! ViCiSi creates Business Activity Profiles for all EU27 countries + Norway and 6
  7. 7. Restoration after an outage comprises different kinds of restoration; for example Power Restoration and Society Restoration PowerNormal operation Restoration Normal operation Society Restoration   Power Restoration is the stage where the demand for power is increasing after the grid has been energized. Some lost energy will also be recovered.   Society Restoration is the stage where the economic activity in the society is increasing after the grid has been energized. Some lost economic values will also be recovered.   Society Restoration is normally considerably slower than the Power 7
  8. 8. Why a Virtual society?  Why do we use a virtual society when there are so many real societies, with real infrastructures?  And moreover when those societies has put lots off efforts to digitally measure all assets?  A virtual society has a number of advantages:   Not conflicting with national security issues.   The concern of the national security after 9/11 has made it more or less impossible to use “sharp” geographical and electrical data!   Especially when we use large scale societies.   We can adapt simulations and results to various environments and issues   We can adapt simulations and results to other countries   We don’t need to cooperate with a specific company to get geographical and electrical data 8
  9. 9. ViCiSi Static Objects   Assets   Blocks,   Houses,   Apartments and   Locations   Streets and railways   Electrical grid   Water and sewage (not implemented yet)   Telecommunications (not implemented yet) 9
  10. 10. ViCiSi Dynamic Objects   Inhabitants Society Activity Manufacturing Retai l   Operations School Hospital   Industries,   Public and private Service,   Utilities, Load   Agriculture farms factor (Pmax/ Pmean)   Activity profiles   Society Activity profile   Power Load 10
  11. 11. ViCiSi Geographical Features  All objects in ViCiSi has a geographical distribution  Plane and Spherical coordinates (Google earth coordinates)  Three coordinate systems   Global (Earth)   Local (County) 11
  12. 12. ViCiSi Electrical Features   The electrical grid inside ViCiSi is a simplified but correct electrical grid   dimensioned from the peak load of every subscriber,   Taking care of the power coincidence with other subscribers   Reflecting the geographical structure of blocks and streets   Handles different voltage levels in the grid   Performs transformation between different voltage levels   Calculation:   Time resolution 1/100th second   Actual load flow data is calculated at each arbitrary time point (Active + Reactive power)   The line losses (Active + Reactive power)   Geographical distances, Manhattan length of lines   The voltage levels inside ViCiSi are   400/220 kV   110 kV   40 kV   10 kV (black)   0.4 kV (yellow) 12
  13. 13. Input to ViCiSi  EU-27 + Norway + Switzerland  Economic statistics from Eurostat (year 2007) (http://   Gross Domestic Product (GDP)   Energy consumption   Demographic statistics   Employment   Branch statistics   Country Area  Power Load Profiles from TSO’s (   Hour values of country power demand (year 2007)  Time Use statistics HETUS Harmonised European Time Use Surveys 8 13
  14. 14. ViCiSi Output: Business Activity to  Outage Cost Assessment Actual Business Activity (EUR/h) are summed for each object  Outage costs after Power Down/ Up (EUR/h) are summed for each object  Business Restoration and Business Recovery (slower than Power Restoration) 14
  15. 15. ViCiSi Output: 15
  16. 16. ViCiSi Output: Maps   Maps of the infrastructure   Blocks, apartments, streets, Electrical grid, etc.   In Euclidic plane three dimensional coordinates (x,y,z) (XML-files)   Or spherical coordinates (longitude, latitude, z) for Google Earth (KML-files). The kml-files can be imported to Google Earth as an overlay to the Google Earth 16
  17. 17. ViCiSi in the Viking projectIndustrial Partners ABB AG (Germany) E.ON AG (Germany) Astron (Hungary) MML Analysis & Strategy (Sweden)Academic Partners Royal Institute of Technology (Sweden) ETH Zurich (Switzerland) University of Maryland (USA) 17
  18. 18. From security requirements to social costsAttack SCADA system Power network Societal cost 18
  19. 19. ViCiSi is a part of the Viking-Test Bed ABB Primary SCADA ABB Secondary 2 HV/MV subs. SCADA Includes 40 busbar model ICCP ICCP IEC IEC Internal Data Exchange WAN emulator ABB Transmission IEC 104 system simulator (OTS) & HV model IEC XML RTU Test & Monitoring Data Exchange as file IEC Astron substation simulator (NTS) Session XML comm. and MV model Manager interface IED 2 HV/MV substation Data Exchange as file Penetration and Analysis XML Tools Viking Country Simulator and LV model VIKING City 1 VIKING City n (ViCiSi) 19
  20. 20. Possibilities to use ViCiSi in other projects   The scope of ViCiSi is to use a virtual   Dependencies between different society to test the dynamics and resilience infrastructures of critical infrastructures   Electrical grid Telecommunication   Telecommunication Payment system   The dynamics between the individuals and the society and the dependency of well functioning   Electrical grid Water and Sewage infrastructure   Other disturbances will be implemented into   ViCiSi is built bottom up, i.e. from the the micro-level   Presents the costs to the society of different kinds of the society, such as: disturbances   Poison in the fresh water   Proliferation of infections and diseases   ViCiSi   Disturbances in telecommunication and the payment   Can run on different platforms Linux, Windows, Mac) system   Has a well defined xml-interface   Disturbances in transportation   New features and other critical   New Power profiles in Smart grid infrastructures will be implemented/   The application of ViCiSi in simulation and extended, such as real-life applications   Water distribution and sewage removal   Cost of cyber attacks (the Viking Project)   Telecommunications   To give estimates of outage costs   Payment systems   investment planning   Transportation (Railway and buses)   For maintenance (cost of planned outages)   Time Use statistics   Measurements of the resilience in a society   New customer behavour in Smart Grid 20
  21. 21. Contact Mats B-O Larsson MML Analyse & Strategy AB, Phone +4670 21