Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

theories IR-6/2

317 views

Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

theories IR-6/2

  1. 1. From The Cold War to The War on Terror
  2. 2.  Problems for Peace markers after a War Vienna Congress & New European Order Sequence of events after WW-I & WW-II Sufferings & expectations from Major Wars Less Lofty ambitions of Peace markers of; 1815, 1919 & 1945 Protections of states interests & securing of International System from further disturbances & destruction
  3. 3.  End of cold War – last War of 20th Century; left the World with; promises & Potential of risk Period between end of Cold War & 9/11 – more interregnum with two thoughts:-  An ongoing struggle between two competing secular ideologies  Shaped by an emerging clash between two conceptions of civilization:  The modern West  The Radical Islam
  4. 4. The End of Cold War
  5. 5.  Effects of Cold War: divisions of world, threats & destructions of Human being; death of 25 million people in 3rd World through proxy wars Desire Degree of Stability due to bipolar order of 1947; appreciations by Realists like; Kenneth waltz for two balancing Powers Two features of Cold War; bipolar structure & highly divided character Cold war as a managed Conflict with Specified limits of each block – a set of informal rules – accepted by both powers
  6. 6.  Philosophy of cold War remaining Cold; agreement on prevention of nuclear war & deterrence Caution of Super Powers not to destroy each other except 1962 – Cuban Missile Crisis Shock Waves of 1989 – dramatic changes in the World & Character of Mikhail Gorbachev– Farsighted leader or a traitor Collapse of Communism & fall of Berlin Wall
  7. 7.  Reagans tough Policies towards Russia – “an Evil Empire” Soviet Economic deterioration or East European debt to West Europe End of Cold War divided IR scholars in to Realists & Constructivists
  8. 8. Mapping the Post – Cold War Era
  9. 9.  Change in the structure of international system & divisions within the wider academic community Western scholars like Francis Fukuyama viewed Collapse of Communism as final end of one particular Phase Defining new tasks far; UNO, NATO & EU Survival of West without a Threat ? Logic for High Military spending once World is more safer
  10. 10. Globalization : A New International Order
  11. 11.  Sharp divisions between opposing Socio- economics system during Cold War Post Cold War: states were compelled to play by a single set of rules within an increasing competitive world economy – the Globalization Different Perceptions of globalizations by Theorist Globalization as a system; quite frequently undermining borders & states – against Westphalia Treaty (Concept of Nations states)
  12. 12.  Other Schools of thought questioned Globalizations – Capitalism after all have been a global system having features of interdependence Debate about; impact of Globalization on global inequality, climate Change & more general distribution of power in IR
  13. 13.  Globalization with increasing regularity was a simple fact of Economic life – (Scholars: David Held & Martin Wolf) No escaping of globalization – except using soft words; to “Compete not Retreat” (Clinton) Very little choice in the world of global competition: Europe either had to reform or decline
  14. 14.  Globalization could not change the essence of how Politics was conducted between States Hans – J. Morgenthau Markets are fast becoming more important than States – a new trend emerged because of globalization-Strange Effect of Globalization on: North America, Europe & East Asia – increased Economic interdependence & Wealth creation
  15. 15. US Primacy: From Super Power to Hyper Power
  16. 16.  Sequel to the end of Cold War: World economy came under same set of highly competitive rule & resurgence of USA without a rival Concept of multiple Polarity – faded A short recession in the economies of Japan, Europe & Yugoslavia US transformation from mere super power to hyper power : French FM, Hubert Vedrine -1998
  17. 17.  Questions on the conjuncture (US status); how long US would stay as a hyper or super power ? Varying thoughts: Emergence of other Powers to balance US; US hegemony would stay in 21st Century Spread of democracy would ensure safety in international system Specially economy -Liberal’s view
  18. 18.  Use of Power by US in wise way – USA is not threat to world, but if it would not lead – world would be threatened American victory after Cold War & dangers to world like:  Rogue states (Iran, Iraq, NK Libya & Cuba)  Threat of Nuclear Proliferation  Threat of Islamic Terrorism
  19. 19.  Incidents like: 9/11, WTC 1993, US embassies bombing in Kenya & Tanzania 1990s – No US Intention to involve in world into affairs specially after Somalian Debacle - 1993 US has been the only Hegemon power after 1990 but do not Know, how to use its Power US after Cold War: “A Super power without Mission”
  20. 20. Europe in World System
  21. 21.  For US; How to develop a Coherent global policy in a world with no threat to its interests For Europe; How to manage the enlarged space created as a result of 1989 events US brought end to Cold war but European remained the actual / true beneficiary
  22. 22.  Europe: a divided continent - united again & its people & states got Right of Self Determination Challenges for European; Collapse of Communism, bloodshed in former Yugoslavia, life under Competitive Capitalism & Transition from one order to another
  23. 23.  Perception of European about future of Europe Own specific security arrangements – French; remained tied to US for its security – others specially Central Europe No agreements/ consensus by European Federalists for deeper union to balance the Power houses of US & Japan Others; Fears this as Eurosceptic card
  24. 24.  European Divisions over Economics:  Deregisters; favored greater state involvement in management of a specially European Social model  Free Marketers: led by UK –oppose the Protected system Challenge for European Policy markers; how bring East back into West Enlargement of European Union to 27 members & NATO 26 by 2007 Rapid enlargement of Europe & reluctance of EU interaction
  25. 25.  NATO – not a serious military organization with integrated Command structure Realist believers in the institutional role of NATO & EU as essential Various views of European future:  As a civilian power  A hard mil power  An economic power
  26. 26.  Birth of European Security & Defence Policy – 1998 & European Security Strategy (ESS) – 2003 Global reach of European security with open borders The Concept : A well functioning international institute & a system of rules Insistence on a strong Trans-Atlantic Relationship remained essential to order the world ESS failed to address future of Europe & Europe remained as such after WW-II Assurance for future of Europe: EU capacity in dealing with Post Cold war events; single currency & new membership
  27. 27.  New Perception: 21st Century is of Europe or Europe as more divided on basic issues, culture & economy/ politics Order issues/ Confronting: Turkish memberships; integration of 13 million Muslim citizens; Rising economic competitions with China Question; by end of 21st Century;  From where it is coming from ?  No blue Print – where it is going ?
  28. 28. Russia from Yeltsin to Putin Defining nature of relationship of Europe with Post Communist Russia : facing transition from super power status – Marxism to become democratic, liberal & market oriented Difficulty for Russia – from a super power to a declining power economically & ideologically in 1990s
  29. 29.  Adopting of Western style Privatization & experiencing of 1930s like depression; Plummeting industrial production; falling living standards etc Contradictory Policies of President Yeltsin; Russians perceived his Policies to be selling of Russia to West against its national interest
  30. 30.  Vladimir Putin vision of Russia: Promotion of nationalism & authoritarianism; clarity in Russian & Western interests; improving Russian economy & exploiting Russian natural resources Strategic partnership between Russia & West Russia should not look like sick man of Europe, yet its economy mainly remained depended on West
  31. 31.  No ideological difference b/w Western & Eastern Europe – former Soviet States joined NATO & EU Russia surrounded by Pro-western Ukraine, three Baltic states & Georgia in Caucasus & faced separation in Chechnya & others US & Western vision of Russia; Heading for an empire, human rights violator & an authoritarian power
  32. 32. East Asia Primed for Rivalry
  33. 33.  Past history of East Asia;  Devastative wars like, China, Korea & Vietnam  Revolutionary insurgencies in; Philippine, Malaysia & Indonesia  Revolutionary extremism specially in Cambodia No Parallels between European new liberal security communities & East Asian / Asian Environment mainly because of NATO & EU formation
  34. 34.  Germany reconciled with rest of Europe, Japan did not for Asia Post Cold War environment:  European continent transformed dramatically  East Asia did not mainly because of; Communists in China, NK & Vietnam; territorial disputes b/w Japan – China –Russia – Taiwan East Asia still ripe for rivalries (Aaron Friedberg) – “Europe’s Past – East Asia’s Future”
  35. 35. Contributory Factors in the Development of East Asia 1st : Great Economic success of East Asia because of; cheap labour; plentiful capital; culture values; opening of US markets for East Asians; sense of security East Asia as 3rd powerhouse of global economy with 25% of World GDP
  36. 36.  2nd : Promotion of regionalism like ASEAN and mutual trade within the East Asia 3rd: Economic Development by Japan; meeting new challenges at global level through economic progress Nuclear Non-proliferation and non militarization
  37. 37.  Leaving beyond historical baggage, East Asians development regional trade & investment mainly because of economic pressure & material self interest Development of regionalism after 1990s Japans peaceful development without any aggressive designs for the regional / external players
  38. 38.  China – Japan trade: 5000 Japanese companies & 55% investment by Taiwans investors Rising China – a fear for West & US – Realists view Chinese assurance to its neighbors; a peaceful rise – economic interdependence –Japan – China understanding on economic grounds US presence in East Asia & Chinese Perception- an ideological difference Western Perception; China as a economic Power (Capitalist) may prove more dangerous for world & West rather as a Communist Power
  39. 39. Haves & Have-nots
  40. 40.  Haves & Have-not; A less debated concept Post WW-II super Powers & Status of 3rd world countries Keeping 3rd World countries at distance but as ally to fight proxy wars & piling up of weapons against opposing camps; Afghanistan, Cuba, Anglo, Vietnam etc End of the Cold war brought settlement & abandoning of front line status of 3rd world countries by super power backers Intellectual crises for the utility of 3rd world without formal rivals like US & USSR
  41. 41.  Globalization further faded the idea of 3rd world as many poor countries developed after end of the Cold War Concept of 3rd world to some analysts; not to be abandoned; as there exists massive poverty in the world Debate on concept of 3rd world, Globalization & Poverty  No Consensus on eradication of 3rd World Concept  Opponents of Globalization demanded either reduction of Globalization or to regulate it  Apprehension of less developed countries – Not getting drawn into the process but remaining outside
  42. 42.  Economic growth in China & India; a case for globalization 30 million Chinese taken out of poverty trap – Indian case is different A concept of competing economy developed by India & China In Africa - Sub-Sahara; globalization has not produced results 3 billion people of the world (half of world population) still live on less than 2 US dollars a day in the globalized World
  43. 43.  GDP of 48 Poorest Countries of World is less than wealth of Worlds three richest people Out of 10.5 m children died in 2006, 98% were from less developed countries Growing gap between less developed & developed world & shifting/ migration of poor to earn their bred
  44. 44.  Poverty & inequality together bred insecurity- insecurity foster instabilities which leads to:  Any action by powerful countries  Displacement- 25 m people displaced by 2006  Effects of closure of borders – causing extreme difficulties for poor Injustice would bread discontent & Political violence “Haves”- appear to have too much & “ Have-nots”- so little – would create ready markets for violence world over
  45. 45. The War on Terror: From 9/11 to Iraq
  46. 46.  End of Cold War as a turning Point of 20th century history & 9/11 was a realization that international order emerged as result was not acceptable to most of the world Bin Laden’s motivation for 9/11 to destroy globalization & US supremacy Bin Laden’s ideology to pull back the world in the past –his threat to use WMD – a modern threat Western Concept / Perception; A new non state threat & character of Islamic Terrorism
  47. 47.  In reality for the US the Threat Was;  More existential than serious  More functionally useful for its quest for global Pre- eminence than actually genuine Unfolding of global war on terror & clarity in US motives (attack Iraq & plan to engage; NK, Iran, etc) Transformation from original target of being victim to the source of imperialism in the world 9/11 enabled US to act in an assertive manner in the world affairs outside US – a revolution to US foreign policy
  48. 48.  US Policy in ME – support to autocratic rule for cheap Oil & revision in Policy after invasion of Iraq Logic for Iraqi Invasion –Iraq was neither involved in 9/11 nor possessed WMD US perceptions of attack on Iraq: Oil, Israel, WMD, ideology expansion – change of regime – failed owing to poor intelligence GWOT; as War of Choice, irrespective of calculation; was a strategic blunder; neither democracy nor reforms in the region could be brought
  49. 49.  US invasion disturbed ME & integrated Iran with GCC & other ME states & caused Power Vacuum in Iraq Spread of radical Islamism throughout in the World like; bombing in London & Madrid Defining the Conflict: Is it a, “Clash of Civilizations”- Huntington theory or Conflict between supports of democracy/ Pluralism against Those Promoting intolerance or supported Theocracy
  50. 50. Thanks

×