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theories IR-6/2


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theories IR-6/2

  1. 1. From The Cold War to The War on Terror
  2. 2.  Problems for Peace markers after a War Vienna Congress & New European Order Sequence of events after WW-I & WW-II Sufferings & expectations from Major Wars Less Lofty ambitions of Peace markers of; 1815, 1919 & 1945 Protections of states interests & securing of International System from further disturbances & destruction
  3. 3.  End of cold War – last War of 20th Century; left the World with; promises & Potential of risk Period between end of Cold War & 9/11 – more interregnum with two thoughts:-  An ongoing struggle between two competing secular ideologies  Shaped by an emerging clash between two conceptions of civilization:  The modern West  The Radical Islam
  4. 4. The End of Cold War
  5. 5.  Effects of Cold War: divisions of world, threats & destructions of Human being; death of 25 million people in 3rd World through proxy wars Desire Degree of Stability due to bipolar order of 1947; appreciations by Realists like; Kenneth waltz for two balancing Powers Two features of Cold War; bipolar structure & highly divided character Cold war as a managed Conflict with Specified limits of each block – a set of informal rules – accepted by both powers
  6. 6.  Philosophy of cold War remaining Cold; agreement on prevention of nuclear war & deterrence Caution of Super Powers not to destroy each other except 1962 – Cuban Missile Crisis Shock Waves of 1989 – dramatic changes in the World & Character of Mikhail Gorbachev– Farsighted leader or a traitor Collapse of Communism & fall of Berlin Wall
  7. 7.  Reagans tough Policies towards Russia – “an Evil Empire” Soviet Economic deterioration or East European debt to West Europe End of Cold War divided IR scholars in to Realists & Constructivists
  8. 8. Mapping the Post – Cold War Era
  9. 9.  Change in the structure of international system & divisions within the wider academic community Western scholars like Francis Fukuyama viewed Collapse of Communism as final end of one particular Phase Defining new tasks far; UNO, NATO & EU Survival of West without a Threat ? Logic for High Military spending once World is more safer
  10. 10. Globalization : A New International Order
  11. 11.  Sharp divisions between opposing Socio- economics system during Cold War Post Cold War: states were compelled to play by a single set of rules within an increasing competitive world economy – the Globalization Different Perceptions of globalizations by Theorist Globalization as a system; quite frequently undermining borders & states – against Westphalia Treaty (Concept of Nations states)
  12. 12.  Other Schools of thought questioned Globalizations – Capitalism after all have been a global system having features of interdependence Debate about; impact of Globalization on global inequality, climate Change & more general distribution of power in IR
  13. 13.  Globalization with increasing regularity was a simple fact of Economic life – (Scholars: David Held & Martin Wolf) No escaping of globalization – except using soft words; to “Compete not Retreat” (Clinton) Very little choice in the world of global competition: Europe either had to reform or decline
  14. 14.  Globalization could not change the essence of how Politics was conducted between States Hans – J. Morgenthau Markets are fast becoming more important than States – a new trend emerged because of globalization-Strange Effect of Globalization on: North America, Europe & East Asia – increased Economic interdependence & Wealth creation
  15. 15. US Primacy: From Super Power to Hyper Power
  16. 16.  Sequel to the end of Cold War: World economy came under same set of highly competitive rule & resurgence of USA without a rival Concept of multiple Polarity – faded A short recession in the economies of Japan, Europe & Yugoslavia US transformation from mere super power to hyper power : French FM, Hubert Vedrine -1998
  17. 17.  Questions on the conjuncture (US status); how long US would stay as a hyper or super power ? Varying thoughts: Emergence of other Powers to balance US; US hegemony would stay in 21st Century Spread of democracy would ensure safety in international system Specially economy -Liberal’s view
  18. 18.  Use of Power by US in wise way – USA is not threat to world, but if it would not lead – world would be threatened American victory after Cold War & dangers to world like:  Rogue states (Iran, Iraq, NK Libya & Cuba)  Threat of Nuclear Proliferation  Threat of Islamic Terrorism
  19. 19.  Incidents like: 9/11, WTC 1993, US embassies bombing in Kenya & Tanzania 1990s – No US Intention to involve in world into affairs specially after Somalian Debacle - 1993 US has been the only Hegemon power after 1990 but do not Know, how to use its Power US after Cold War: “A Super power without Mission”
  20. 20. Europe in World System
  21. 21.  For US; How to develop a Coherent global policy in a world with no threat to its interests For Europe; How to manage the enlarged space created as a result of 1989 events US brought end to Cold war but European remained the actual / true beneficiary
  22. 22.  Europe: a divided continent - united again & its people & states got Right of Self Determination Challenges for European; Collapse of Communism, bloodshed in former Yugoslavia, life under Competitive Capitalism & Transition from one order to another
  23. 23.  Perception of European about future of Europe Own specific security arrangements – French; remained tied to US for its security – others specially Central Europe No agreements/ consensus by European Federalists for deeper union to balance the Power houses of US & Japan Others; Fears this as Eurosceptic card
  24. 24.  European Divisions over Economics:  Deregisters; favored greater state involvement in management of a specially European Social model  Free Marketers: led by UK –oppose the Protected system Challenge for European Policy markers; how bring East back into West Enlargement of European Union to 27 members & NATO 26 by 2007 Rapid enlargement of Europe & reluctance of EU interaction
  25. 25.  NATO – not a serious military organization with integrated Command structure Realist believers in the institutional role of NATO & EU as essential Various views of European future:  As a civilian power  A hard mil power  An economic power
  26. 26.  Birth of European Security & Defence Policy – 1998 & European Security Strategy (ESS) – 2003 Global reach of European security with open borders The Concept : A well functioning international institute & a system of rules Insistence on a strong Trans-Atlantic Relationship remained essential to order the world ESS failed to address future of Europe & Europe remained as such after WW-II Assurance for future of Europe: EU capacity in dealing with Post Cold war events; single currency & new membership
  27. 27.  New Perception: 21st Century is of Europe or Europe as more divided on basic issues, culture & economy/ politics Order issues/ Confronting: Turkish memberships; integration of 13 million Muslim citizens; Rising economic competitions with China Question; by end of 21st Century;  From where it is coming from ?  No blue Print – where it is going ?
  28. 28. Russia from Yeltsin to Putin Defining nature of relationship of Europe with Post Communist Russia : facing transition from super power status – Marxism to become democratic, liberal & market oriented Difficulty for Russia – from a super power to a declining power economically & ideologically in 1990s
  29. 29.  Adopting of Western style Privatization & experiencing of 1930s like depression; Plummeting industrial production; falling living standards etc Contradictory Policies of President Yeltsin; Russians perceived his Policies to be selling of Russia to West against its national interest
  30. 30.  Vladimir Putin vision of Russia: Promotion of nationalism & authoritarianism; clarity in Russian & Western interests; improving Russian economy & exploiting Russian natural resources Strategic partnership between Russia & West Russia should not look like sick man of Europe, yet its economy mainly remained depended on West
  31. 31.  No ideological difference b/w Western & Eastern Europe – former Soviet States joined NATO & EU Russia surrounded by Pro-western Ukraine, three Baltic states & Georgia in Caucasus & faced separation in Chechnya & others US & Western vision of Russia; Heading for an empire, human rights violator & an authoritarian power
  32. 32. East Asia Primed for Rivalry
  33. 33.  Past history of East Asia;  Devastative wars like, China, Korea & Vietnam  Revolutionary insurgencies in; Philippine, Malaysia & Indonesia  Revolutionary extremism specially in Cambodia No Parallels between European new liberal security communities & East Asian / Asian Environment mainly because of NATO & EU formation
  34. 34.  Germany reconciled with rest of Europe, Japan did not for Asia Post Cold War environment:  European continent transformed dramatically  East Asia did not mainly because of; Communists in China, NK & Vietnam; territorial disputes b/w Japan – China –Russia – Taiwan East Asia still ripe for rivalries (Aaron Friedberg) – “Europe’s Past – East Asia’s Future”
  35. 35. Contributory Factors in the Development of East Asia 1st : Great Economic success of East Asia because of; cheap labour; plentiful capital; culture values; opening of US markets for East Asians; sense of security East Asia as 3rd powerhouse of global economy with 25% of World GDP
  36. 36.  2nd : Promotion of regionalism like ASEAN and mutual trade within the East Asia 3rd: Economic Development by Japan; meeting new challenges at global level through economic progress Nuclear Non-proliferation and non militarization
  37. 37.  Leaving beyond historical baggage, East Asians development regional trade & investment mainly because of economic pressure & material self interest Development of regionalism after 1990s Japans peaceful development without any aggressive designs for the regional / external players
  38. 38.  China – Japan trade: 5000 Japanese companies & 55% investment by Taiwans investors Rising China – a fear for West & US – Realists view Chinese assurance to its neighbors; a peaceful rise – economic interdependence –Japan – China understanding on economic grounds US presence in East Asia & Chinese Perception- an ideological difference Western Perception; China as a economic Power (Capitalist) may prove more dangerous for world & West rather as a Communist Power
  39. 39. Haves & Have-nots
  40. 40.  Haves & Have-not; A less debated concept Post WW-II super Powers & Status of 3rd world countries Keeping 3rd World countries at distance but as ally to fight proxy wars & piling up of weapons against opposing camps; Afghanistan, Cuba, Anglo, Vietnam etc End of the Cold war brought settlement & abandoning of front line status of 3rd world countries by super power backers Intellectual crises for the utility of 3rd world without formal rivals like US & USSR
  41. 41.  Globalization further faded the idea of 3rd world as many poor countries developed after end of the Cold War Concept of 3rd world to some analysts; not to be abandoned; as there exists massive poverty in the world Debate on concept of 3rd world, Globalization & Poverty  No Consensus on eradication of 3rd World Concept  Opponents of Globalization demanded either reduction of Globalization or to regulate it  Apprehension of less developed countries – Not getting drawn into the process but remaining outside
  42. 42.  Economic growth in China & India; a case for globalization 30 million Chinese taken out of poverty trap – Indian case is different A concept of competing economy developed by India & China In Africa - Sub-Sahara; globalization has not produced results 3 billion people of the world (half of world population) still live on less than 2 US dollars a day in the globalized World
  43. 43.  GDP of 48 Poorest Countries of World is less than wealth of Worlds three richest people Out of 10.5 m children died in 2006, 98% were from less developed countries Growing gap between less developed & developed world & shifting/ migration of poor to earn their bred
  44. 44.  Poverty & inequality together bred insecurity- insecurity foster instabilities which leads to:  Any action by powerful countries  Displacement- 25 m people displaced by 2006  Effects of closure of borders – causing extreme difficulties for poor Injustice would bread discontent & Political violence “Haves”- appear to have too much & “ Have-nots”- so little – would create ready markets for violence world over
  45. 45. The War on Terror: From 9/11 to Iraq
  46. 46.  End of Cold War as a turning Point of 20th century history & 9/11 was a realization that international order emerged as result was not acceptable to most of the world Bin Laden’s motivation for 9/11 to destroy globalization & US supremacy Bin Laden’s ideology to pull back the world in the past –his threat to use WMD – a modern threat Western Concept / Perception; A new non state threat & character of Islamic Terrorism
  47. 47.  In reality for the US the Threat Was;  More existential than serious  More functionally useful for its quest for global Pre- eminence than actually genuine Unfolding of global war on terror & clarity in US motives (attack Iraq & plan to engage; NK, Iran, etc) Transformation from original target of being victim to the source of imperialism in the world 9/11 enabled US to act in an assertive manner in the world affairs outside US – a revolution to US foreign policy
  48. 48.  US Policy in ME – support to autocratic rule for cheap Oil & revision in Policy after invasion of Iraq Logic for Iraqi Invasion –Iraq was neither involved in 9/11 nor possessed WMD US perceptions of attack on Iraq: Oil, Israel, WMD, ideology expansion – change of regime – failed owing to poor intelligence GWOT; as War of Choice, irrespective of calculation; was a strategic blunder; neither democracy nor reforms in the region could be brought
  49. 49.  US invasion disturbed ME & integrated Iran with GCC & other ME states & caused Power Vacuum in Iraq Spread of radical Islamism throughout in the World like; bombing in London & Madrid Defining the Conflict: Is it a, “Clash of Civilizations”- Huntington theory or Conflict between supports of democracy/ Pluralism against Those Promoting intolerance or supported Theocracy
  50. 50. Thanks