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Future of civilizations

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HIST 1000 : INTRODUCTION TO HISTORY & CIVILIZATION
KIRKHS, IIUM

Published in: News & Politics
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Future of civilizations

  1. 1. FUTURE OFFUTURE OF CIVILIZATIONS:CIVILIZATIONS: PROSPECTS &PROSPECTS & CHALLENGESCHALLENGES
  2. 2. CLASH OFCLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS?CIVILIZATIONS?
  3. 3. SSamuel P. Huntingtonamuel P. Huntington (born April(born April 18, 1927)18, 1927) • A political scientist & professor at HarvardA political scientist & professor at Harvard University.University. • 1960s, published “Political Order in Changing1960s, published “Political Order in Changing Societies”.Societies”. • 1993, incited a major debate following his article,1993, incited a major debate following his article, “The Clash of Civilizations?”“The Clash of Civilizations?” published in thepublished in the journaljournal Foreign AffairsForeign Affairs.. • Expanded into a full-length book, “Expanded into a full-length book, “The Clash ofThe Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World OrderCivilizations and the Remaking of World Order”.”.
  4. 4. • The theory ofThe theory of the clash of civilizationsthe clash of civilizations:: 1.1. the world will experience and witness culturalthe world will experience and witness cultural conflicts along cultural and religious lines.conflicts along cultural and religious lines. –– conflicts between civilizations rather than nationsconflicts between civilizations rather than nations or ideologies.or ideologies. - Faith and family , blood and belief, are what- Faith and family , blood and belief, are what people identify with and what they will fight andpeople identify with and what they will fight and die for.die for.
  5. 5. 2. Divides the world into seven/eight major2. Divides the world into seven/eight major civilizations (based on religion, geographicalcivilizations (based on religion, geographical proximity and language):proximity and language): • Western ChristendomWestern Christendom • Latin AmericaLatin America • OrthodoxOrthodox • Islamic civilizationIslamic civilization • Hindu civilizationHindu civilization • Sinic civilizationSinic civilization • Japanese civilizationJapanese civilization • Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa
  6. 6. 3. Sinic and Islamic civilizations - future threats to3. Sinic and Islamic civilizations - future threats to the West.the West. ““With the challenger civilizations, Islam andWith the challenger civilizations, Islam and China, the West is likely to have consistentlyChina, the West is likely to have consistently strained and often highly antagonistic relations”strained and often highly antagonistic relations” (p. 184)(p. 184) - An ‘Islamic-Confucian connection’ is emerging- An ‘Islamic-Confucian connection’ is emerging against the West.against the West. 4. Western civilization may lose its predominance4. Western civilization may lose its predominance if fail to recognize cultural rifts/conflicts.if fail to recognize cultural rifts/conflicts. - Early actions need to be taken to prevent- Early actions need to be taken to prevent conflicts from spreading into world wars.conflicts from spreading into world wars.
  7. 7. - The challenge for Western policy-makers is to- The challenge for Western policy-makers is to make sure that the West gets stronger.make sure that the West gets stronger. 5. Continued insistence towards democratizations5. Continued insistence towards democratizations and interventionism will only further antagonizeand interventionism will only further antagonize other civilizations.other civilizations. 6. The Orthodox, Hindu and Japanese civilizations6. The Orthodox, Hindu and Japanese civilizations are “swing” civilizations, with the potential toare “swing” civilizations, with the potential to move in different directions viv-a-vis the West.move in different directions viv-a-vis the West. 7. “Torn countries” – countries that are seeking to7. “Torn countries” – countries that are seeking to affiliate with another civilization. Eg. Turkey.affiliate with another civilization. Eg. Turkey.
  8. 8. • The breakup of Yugoslavia (Serbs v Bosnians)The breakup of Yugoslavia (Serbs v Bosnians) • Russian war in ChechnyaRussian war in Chechnya • War between India and PakistanWar between India and Pakistan • September 11 event.September 11 event. • The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan (2001)The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan (2001) • The U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003)The U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003) • Madrid Train Bombings (2005)Madrid Train Bombings (2005) • London Bombings (2005)London Bombings (2005) • Jyllands-Posten Prophet Muhammad CartoonJyllands-Posten Prophet Muhammad Cartoon Controversy (2006)Controversy (2006)
  9. 9. Huntington’s CriticsHuntington’s Critics • His theory serves as the theoretical basis toHis theory serves as the theoretical basis to legitimize US-led West aggression againstlegitimize US-led West aggression against others.others. • His advocacy to take early actions to preventHis advocacy to take early actions to prevent world wars – explains US policy of attackingworld wars – explains US policy of attacking countries that are not currently a threat but couldcountries that are not currently a threat but could potentially be one in the future.potentially be one in the future. • Absurd because it is often easier for people ofAbsurd because it is often easier for people of different cultures to get along because theydifferent cultures to get along because they suspend their standard judgments.suspend their standard judgments.
  10. 10. • E.g. conflicts within the same culture: the HutusE.g. conflicts within the same culture: the Hutus and Tutsis, North and South Korea, China andand Tutsis, North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, the Falkland Island Crisis.Taiwan, the Falkland Island Crisis. • His identified civilizations present little unity. E.g:His identified civilizations present little unity. E.g: -Vietnam (Sinic Civ) still keeps a massive army,-Vietnam (Sinic Civ) still keeps a massive army, mostly to guard against China.mostly to guard against China. - The Muslim world divided along ethnic and- The Muslim world divided along ethnic and religious lines.religious lines. - Cultural differences between Korean and China- Cultural differences between Korean and China are not less important than between Japan andare not less important than between Japan and China.China.
  11. 11. Reactions to Huntington’s TheoryReactions to Huntington’s Theory • ““Dialogue Among CivilizationsDialogue Among Civilizations ”” - a theory in international relations.a theory in international relations. - Introduced by Mohammad Khatami, formerIntroduced by Mohammad Khatami, former President of Iran.President of Iran. - As a response to Huntington’s theory.As a response to Huntington’s theory. - Became famous after the United Nations (UN)Became famous after the United Nations (UN) adopted a resolution to name the year 2001 asadopted a resolution to name the year 2001 as the ‘YEAR OF DIALOGUE AMONGthe ‘YEAR OF DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS’.CIVILIZATIONS’. - There are currently several internationalThere are currently several international organizations that are directly or indirectlyorganizations that are directly or indirectly pursuing the idea.pursuing the idea.
  12. 12. • ““Alliance of CivilizationsAlliance of Civilizations ”” - a proposed conference to overcome cultural anda proposed conference to overcome cultural and social barriers between mainly the Christian andsocial barriers between mainly the Christian and Muslim world.Muslim world. - Proposed by Spanish Prime Minister, Jose LuisProposed by Spanish Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in the 59Rodriguez Zapatero in the 59thth GeneralGeneral Assembly of the UN.Assembly of the UN. - Supported by Turkish Prime Minister.Supported by Turkish Prime Minister. - A committee, the High-Level Group (HLG) forA committee, the High-Level Group (HLG) for the Alliance of Civilization (AoC) consists ofthe Alliance of Civilization (AoC) consists of eminent policy-makers, academicians, leaders ofeminent policy-makers, academicians, leaders of societies and media.societies and media. - 11stst meeting (Nov 2005), 2meeting (Nov 2005), 2ndnd meeting (Feb 2006)meeting (Feb 2006)
  13. 13. • ““China’s Peaceful Rise”China’s Peaceful Rise” - or “China’s peaceful development”.or “China’s peaceful development”. - First used by Zheng Bijian, a leader of CCP inFirst used by Zheng Bijian, a leader of CCP in 2003.2003. - To reassure the nations of East Asia and UnitedTo reassure the nations of East Asia and United States that the rise of the PRC in military andStates that the rise of the PRC in military and economic prominence will not be a threat toeconomic prominence will not be a threat to peace and stability, and that other nations willpeace and stability, and that other nations will benefit from the rise of the PRC.benefit from the rise of the PRC. - Emphasizes multilateral cooperation throughEmphasizes multilateral cooperation through institutions like ‘Six Power Talks’, and calls forinstitutions like ‘Six Power Talks’, and calls for peaceful diplomacy over border disputes.peaceful diplomacy over border disputes. - Seeks to avoid confrontation with the U.S.Seeks to avoid confrontation with the U.S.
  14. 14. Francis FukuyamaFrancis Fukuyama • A work entitled in “A work entitled in “The End of HistoryThe End of History”.”. • A theory of ‘the end of history’ – the world hadA theory of ‘the end of history’ – the world had reached the ‘end of history’.reached the ‘end of history’. • Liberal democracy and Western values hadLiberal democracy and Western values had become the only remaining ideology for nationsbecome the only remaining ideology for nations in the post-Cold War period.in the post-Cold War period.
  15. 15. Classification of PowersClassification of Powers • SuperpowerSuperpower • HyperpowerHyperpower • Potential SuperpowersPotential Superpowers • Major powerMajor power • Regional powerRegional power • BRICBRIC
  16. 16. Map for articleMap for article SuperpowerSuperpower showing the twoshowing the two Cold WarCold War superpowers of thesuperpowers of the Union of Soviet Socialist RepublicsUnion of Soviet Socialist Republics in redin red and theand the United States of AmericaUnited States of America in blue.in blue.
  17. 17. Super powerSuper power • ‘‘Super’ from Latin ‘Super’ from Latin ‘superussuperus’ (upper or superior)’ (upper or superior) • ‘‘Power’ from Latin ‘Power’ from Latin ‘poterepotere’ (ability to do’ (ability to do somethingsomething • Literally means ‘the superior ability to doLiterally means ‘the superior ability to do something’.something’. • A state with the first rank in the internationalA state with the first rank in the international system and has the ability to influence eventssystem and has the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale.and project power on a worldwide scale. • The term in its current political meaning wasThe term in its current political meaning was coined in “coined in “The SuperpowersThe Superpowers” (1943) by W. T. R.” (1943) by W. T. R. Fox.Fox.
  18. 18. • In early 1940s, the superpowers were the U.S,In early 1940s, the superpowers were the U.S, Soviet Union and Great Britain.Soviet Union and Great Britain. • The immediate post-war years and during ColdThe immediate post-war years and during Cold War period, the superpowers were U.S andWar period, the superpowers were U.S and Soviet Union.Soviet Union. • After the disintegration of Soviet Union (1990s),After the disintegration of Soviet Union (1990s), the remaining superpower is U.S.the remaining superpower is U.S.
  19. 19. The criteria of a Superpower:The criteria of a Superpower: • CulturalCultural • GeographicalGeographical • Economic and financialEconomic and financial • DemographicDemographic • MilitaryMilitary • Political or IdeologicalPolitical or Ideological
  20. 20. HyperpowerHyperpower • Coined by French foreign minister, HubertCoined by French foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine in the 1990s.Vedrine in the 1990s. • Applied to the U.S, the sole superpower ofApplied to the U.S, the sole superpower of the Cold War era –the Cold War era – U.S. as HyperpowerU.S. as Hyperpower,, has no equals in terms of power andhas no equals in terms of power and influence.influence. • Controversial.Controversial. • Unipolar world versus Multipolar world.Unipolar world versus Multipolar world.
  21. 21. Potential SuperpowersPotential Superpowers • ChinaChina • European UnionEuropean Union • IndiaIndia
  22. 22. TheThe People's Republic of ChinaPeople's Republic of China is in red, theis in red, the European UnionEuropean Union in blue and thein blue and the Republic of IndiaRepublic of India in green. Countries which are currently in the process ofin green. Countries which are currently in the process of joining the European Union or have officially started talks are colored in purple;joining the European Union or have officially started talks are colored in purple; these arethese are RomaniaRomania,, BulgariaBulgaria,, CroatiaCroatia,, MacedoniaMacedonia andand TurkeyTurkey..
  23. 23. CHINACHINA
  24. 24. EUEU
  25. 25. INDIAINDIA
  26. 26. Major powersMajor powers • BrazilBrazil • FranceFrance • GermanyGermany • JapanJapan • RussiaRussia • United KingdomUnited Kingdom
  27. 27. Map showing major powers; The Federative Republic of Brazil is in pink, theMap showing major powers; The Federative Republic of Brazil is in pink, the French Republic is in brown, the Federal Republic of Germany is in green,French Republic is in brown, the Federal Republic of Germany is in green, Japan is in gold, the Russian Federation is in red and the United Kingdom ofJapan is in gold, the Russian Federation is in red and the United Kingdom of
  28. 28. Regional powersRegional powers • India & Pakistan (South Asia)India & Pakistan (South Asia) • Argentina, Mexico & Brazil (Latin America)Argentina, Mexico & Brazil (Latin America) • South Africa & Nigeria (Sub-Saharan Africa)South Africa & Nigeria (Sub-Saharan Africa) • Israel, Turkey, Iran & Egypt (Middle East)Israel, Turkey, Iran & Egypt (Middle East) • China & Japan (East Asia)China & Japan (East Asia) • Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines &Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines & Singapore (Southeast Asia)Singapore (Southeast Asia) • United Kingdom, France & Germany (Europe)United Kingdom, France & Germany (Europe) • Russia (former Soviet bloc and Central Asia)Russia (former Soviet bloc and Central Asia) • Australia and New Zealand (Pacific)Australia and New Zealand (Pacific)
  29. 29. Muslims and World PoliticsMuslims and World Politics • Islamic civilization – lots of potential.Islamic civilization – lots of potential. • Viewed as a threat to the West.Viewed as a threat to the West. • Islam is second largest religion in the world – isIslam is second largest religion in the world – is growing faster numerically than any of the othergrowing faster numerically than any of the other major world religions (Christianity, Buddhism,major world religions (Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism).Hinduism). • The growth rate 2.9 % annually compared to 2.3The growth rate 2.9 % annually compared to 2.3 % annually of global population growth.% annually of global population growth. • Higher birth rates in many Muslim countries (sixHigher birth rates in many Muslim countries (six out of top-ten countries in the world with theout of top-ten countries in the world with the highest birth rates are majority Muslims)highest birth rates are majority Muslims) • Muslim population 1.4 billion.Muslim population 1.4 billion.
  30. 30. • Muslims not confined to one place – spread allMuslims not confined to one place – spread all over the world (Asia, Europe, America)over the world (Asia, Europe, America) • Muslims controlling major trading waterways;Muslims controlling major trading waterways; Malacca Strait, Mediterranean Sea, Suez canal,Malacca Strait, Mediterranean Sea, Suez canal, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Aegean Sea.Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Aegean Sea. • One ideology – Islam (Qur’an).One ideology – Islam (Qur’an). Muslims’ weaknessesMuslims’ weaknesses:: •No unity.No unity. • Sunni, Shi’a (Twelvers, Niners, Fivers, Ismaili,Sunni, Shi’a (Twelvers, Niners, Fivers, Ismaili, Nizari Ismaili, Mustaali Bohra, Dawoodi Bohra,Nizari Ismaili, Mustaali Bohra, Dawoodi Bohra, Sulaimani Bohra), Wahhabis (Salafis), IbadhiSulaimani Bohra), Wahhabis (Salafis), Ibadhi Muslims (Kharijites)Muslims (Kharijites)
  31. 31. • The Nation of Islam, Zikris, AhmadiyyaThe Nation of Islam, Zikris, Ahmadiyya (Qadiani), Al-Ahbash (Habashies)(Qadiani), Al-Ahbash (Habashies) • The Druze, Alawites (Alnusairiya)The Druze, Alawites (Alnusairiya) • Tribalism, nationalism, secularism.Tribalism, nationalism, secularism. • Lack of communications between sub-cultures.Lack of communications between sub-cultures. • Poverty, illiteracy – 80 % of world refugees arePoverty, illiteracy – 80 % of world refugees are Muslims.Muslims. • Dominated by foreign influence / foreignDominated by foreign influence / foreign intervention – Western pressure, Western capitalintervention – Western pressure, Western capital & Western market.& Western market. • Bad images; terrorists.Bad images; terrorists. • Lack military power; science and technology.Lack military power; science and technology. • Undemocratic governments; no syura.Undemocratic governments; no syura.
  32. 32. BRICBRIC • The combination ofThe combination of BBrazil,razil, RRussia,ussia, IIndia andndia and CChina.hina. • May become among the four most dominantMay become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050economies by the year 2050 • Proposed by Jim O’Neil.Proposed by Jim O’Neil.
  33. 33. The four BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India and ChinaThe four BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China

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