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Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout

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Presentation to ITB Berlin 2009

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Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout

  1. 1. The Future of Travel and TourismITB Convention – Berlin - March 11th 2009 Rohit Talwar - CEO - Fast Future Image source: Hydropolis, Dubai rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
  2. 2. For details on Fast Future’sseminar on Winning in a Downturn April 30th 2009 - 6pm QE II Centre London please email seminars@fastfuture.com
  3. 3. What do they Have in Common?They all started in an economic downturn
  4. 4. How will the Downturn Develop? http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
  5. 5. Prepare for Alternative Scenarios 8-10% Suspicious Love is in Minds the AirGDPGrowth Dancing inIndia 6-7% the DarkandChina Road to Nowhere 1-2% Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3% GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
  6. 6. Airlines in CrisisSources: www.flysilverjet.com / www.maxjet.com / http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg
  7. 7. Demographic Destinies3 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics 445 731 665 5266 339 1998 4034 769 965 572 2008 2050 Source: UN Source : United Nations
  8. 8. Economic Power Shifts The Top 20 in 2025? Source: www.gs.com
  9. 9. Middle East Travel and TourismUS$ 3.76 Trillion investment by 2020 Over 900 new hotels offering 750,000+ rooms by 2020 Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012 900+ new aircraft by 2027 170 million Tourists by 2020 rohit@fastfuture.com
  10. 10. Revenue Impact Against 2008 16% Growth 28% Flat 2009 Decline 19% 43% 56% 2010 12% 38% 9% 2015 79%203 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  11. 11. Profit Impact Against 2008 20% 25% Growth Flat 2009 Decline 25% 38% 55% 2010 18% 37% 9% 2015 73%204 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  12. 12. Cost Cutting - Emphasis on Innovation - Increasing Use of Partnerships - Changing Organisational Structure - Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers - Headcount Reduction - Changing Business Model - Changing our Basic Strategy - Increased Marketing - More New Product Development - Focus on Premium Products - Staff Motivation Activities - Looking for Acquisitions - Reduction of Product Range - Price Increases - Selling Parts of the Business - No Change - Other -Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  13. 13. Customer Relationships - Cost Control - Innovation - Marketing and Brand Promotion - Clear Internal Communications - Supplier Relationships - Other -Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  14. 14. Vacations 201547% - More48% - Shorter70% - More Low Cost20% - More LuxuryData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future ofTravel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009 http://www.maskworld.com/pix/costumes/large/91099-urlauber-fat-suit-tourist-fat-suit.jpg
  15. 15. 81% 76%http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg 62% 80% Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.htmlData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  16. 16. Leveraging the Networks 74% - Will use Networks to Research and Find DealsData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  17. 17. 64% 31% 3% 2%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  18. 18. Travel Expectations in 2015 Up Down• No. of domestic nights 31% 27%• No. of international nights 42% 23%• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  19. 19. Air Travel 2015http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg
  20. 20. Air Travel in 2015• 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and international flights Up Down• Personal domestic flights 29% 28%• Personal international flights 39% 24%• Travel Budgets 44% 32%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  21. 21. New Business Models85% - In-Flight / In-Room66% - Experience Lounges53% - Testing Vacations67% - Monetize Clients http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  22. 22. Under 100 US Airports by 2015? 38% http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  23. 23. Airports only in Major Euro Cities 40% http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/T5large.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  24. 24. Low Cost Carriers 62% - Half will Collapse 49% - Massive Growth http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.pngData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  25. 25. New Business Models / New Airlines 62% http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Lufthansa-1.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  26. 26. Preference for Rail over Air 66% - Europe 18% - USA http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  27. 27. Innovations will Continue to Emerge – e.g. Jumbo Hostel, Sweden http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&mn1=5293&mn2=5302
  28. 28. Mobile Hotels - Movil http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg
  29. 29. Rig Hotelshttp://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/
  30. 30. Hello Hypersonic? 48%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future ofTravel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009 www.mondolithic.com
  31. 31. $20,000 Commercial Spaceflight? 29%Image source: Virgin GalacticData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  32. 32. Space Hotels? 18% http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  33. 33. Airship Hotels 30% Source: AeroscraftData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  34. 34. Augmented Reality 69% http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  35. 35. 23% www.mondolithic.comData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  36. 36. Environmenthttp://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
  37. 37. Don’t Make What you Don’t NeedFrom requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation anddemobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics
  38. 38. Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  39. 39. Environmental Control• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero environmental 23% footprint (waste, energy use, emissions) will be out of business• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all airlines 77%• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that dramatically restrict the number of flights they can take 25%• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly, proving the business benefit outweighs environmental impact 18%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  40. 40. What does the timeline ofdevelopments look like for your key markets?
  41. 41. Travel 2015 - Conclusions• Demand will hold up• Airline profitability is critical• New business models will evolve• Sustainability still on the agenda http://dubaiworld.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/dubailand-wheel.jpg
  42. 42. If you would like to take part in our study on the future of meetings and travel, sign up to ournewsletter or receive the research studies mentioned please email research@fastfuture.com

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