From Cyber-Societies to Cyber-Nations

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The Internet, and the concept of cyberspace, has changed many aspects of human relations in recent years. One of the most important trends is emerging groups of people with common interests or aims which creates a special kind of society in cyberspace that we call cyber-society. The interesting characteristics of such societies, including how the society is created, how the people find each other, how they interact and share interests and ideas, and how the society grows or falls make this area a unique one to study and understand. According to the fact that this is a strong trend today, the question is: What will be the future of cyber-societies? In this article, a new concept, “Cyber-nation” is introduced and its various aspects are discussed as a probable future of the cyber-societies. The author tends to describe various effects of emerging cyber-nations in politics, economy, society and international relations.

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From Cyber-Societies to Cyber-Nations

  1. 1. From Cyber-Societies to Cyber-Nations How the technology will shape the world in the future KHANDAN, Farzad Futures Studies Research Center IKIU, Iran fkhandan@simiagaran.net 21st WFSF World Conference – Bucharest, Romania - 2013June 27, 2013
  2. 2. What is changing? Some Trends
  3. 3. Internet Users 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Dec. 31, 2000 Latest Data Millions Africa Asia Europe Middle East North America Latin America / Caribbean Oceania / Australia WORLD TOTAL Source: www.internetworldstats.com
  4. 4. Internet World Users
  5. 5. Internet Users World Regions Penetration (% Population) Growth 2000-2012 Users % of Table Africa 15.6 % 3,606.7 % 7.0 % Asia 27.5 % 841.9 % 44.8 % Europe 63.2 % 393.4 % 21.5 % Middle East 40.2 % 2,639.9 % 3.7 % North America 78.6 % 153.3 % 11.4 % Latin America / Caribbean 42.9 % 1,310.8 % 10.6 % Oceania / Australia 67.6 % 218.7 % 1.0 % WORLD TOTAL 34.3 % 566.4 % 100.0 % Source: www.internetworldstats.com
  6. 6. Facebook Users in Regions 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 March, 2011 March, 2012 Millions Europe Asia North America South America Central America Africa Middle East Oceania / Australia Caribbean, the World Total Source: www.internetworldstats.com
  7. 7. Facebook Penetration 9.60% 12.10% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 1-Jan-11 1-Jan-12 North America Oceania / Australia Europe South America Central America Caribbean,the Middle East Asia Africa World Average Source: www.internetworldstats.com
  8. 8. Behavioral Impact Facebook Statistics Data Total number of monthly active Facebook users 1,110,000,000 Total number of mobile Facebook users 680,000,000 Increase in Facebook users from 2011 to 2012 26 % Total number of minutes spent on Facebook each month 700 billion Percent of all Facebook users who log on in any given day 50 % Average time spent on Facebook per visit 20 minutes Facebook Demographics Data Percent of 18-34 year olds who check Facebook when they wake up 48 % Percent of 18-34 year olds who check Facebook before they get out of bed 28 % Average number of friends per facebook user 130 Average number of pages, groups, and events a user is connected to 80 Average number of photos uploaded per day 250 Number of fake Facebook profiles 83,000,000 Source: www.statisticbrain.com
  9. 9. Mobile Subscribers
  10. 10. Mobile Penetration
  11. 11. Cyber-Threats & Reactions  A Pentagon Project that “Makes Cyberwar as Easy as Angry Birds”  Thirteen leading technology providers, together with announced the formation of a new cybersecurity technology alliance.  Countries around the world are now preparing to fight a cyberwar. Source: www.shapingtomorrow.com
  12. 12. Sophisticated Experience
  13. 13. e-Government Usage 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 EU Individual Use of e-Government, percentage of population Source: Eurostat – http://eurostat.ec.europa.eu
  14. 14. e-Government Index Source: UN e-Government Survey 2012
  15. 15. Extent of e-Service Delivery Source: UN e-Government Survey 2012
  16. 16. e-Government Trends  Social Re-engineering  Active Engagement  Knowledge Management  Use of Social Networking to re-engineer processes, systems and organizations  Mobile Adoption  Bring your own device  More connected society - government  Re-shaping business operating models – getting more social  Cloud Computing  Again – toward centralized computing models  Big Data  Toward sophisticated visualization  More A. I. (Artificial Intelligence)  Pattern Discovery, real meaning, smart responses  Digital Identity vs. Physical Identity
  17. 17. Summary  The world is going more ON-LINE  People enjoy more being NETWORKED and living a VIRTUALLY CONNECTED life  Being ON-LINE is not bound to TIME and PLACE  Cyber-Alliances SHAPE by external forces (like threats)  Social Activities increasingly tend to have Web Presence  The relationship between People and Government is changing  There are threats as well as opportunities in cyber- space
  18. 18. Concepts, Drivers, Alternative Futures Toward Cyber-Nations
  19. 19. Simple Definitions  Nation  Culturally homogeneous groups of people, larger than a single tribe or community, which share a common language, institutions, religion, and historical experience.  A community of people who share a common language, culture, ethnicity, descent, or history.  A large group of people of the same race and language  State  An independent political unit holding sovereignty over a territory.
  20. 20. Nation-State  A state associated with a particular nation and a sovereign territorial unit.  Nation-states are building blocks of today international politics and relationship.  An Independent State:  Has space or territory which has internationally recognized boundaries.  Has people who live there on an ongoing basis.  Has economic activity and an organized economy. A country regulates foreign and domestic trade and issues money.  Has the power of social engineering, such as education.  Has a transportation system for moving goods and people.  Has a government which provides public services and police power.  Has sovereignty. No other State should have power over the country's territory.  Has external recognition by other nation-states.
  21. 21. Nation-State History  Westphalian sovereignty: Treaty of Westphalia  a series of peace treaties signed in 1648 in Europe and ended the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) in the Holy Roman Empire, and the Eighty Years' War (1568– 1648) between Spain and the Dutch Republic.  Modern Nation-States: Legitimate states that govern effectively are widely regarded today as the defining characteristics of a modern nation-state.
  22. 22. Nation-States Nation-State Nation GovernmentTerritory
  23. 23. Imaging the Futures of Nation-State  Approach: Nuts-Bolts  Focus: Simple structural model of Nation-State  What can be changed?  Relationships  The entities (Nation, State, Territory)  Cyber-nation: All imaginable futures of Nation-State that Cyberspace and IT play a magnificent role and replaces some of the entities and functions in the legacy model  The questions:  What changes are more Probable?  What changes are more Plausible?  What changes are more Preferred?
  24. 24. Relationships  Nation to Nation  Virtual Contact vs. Physical Contacts  E-Relationship  Social Medias – Social Networks  E-Culture  Nation to State  E-Government  E-Participation  Nation to Territory  Virtual Reality vs. Physical Presence  What about Immigrants?  E-Culture  State to Territory  What are the imaginable sort of connecting a State to Territory?  E- Sovereignty?
  25. 25. Territory  Possibilities  No Borders, No Territory  Cyber-Territory  Virtually Connected Distinct Territories  On Earth  Universally Distributed  Plausible by 2050?
  26. 26. State  Virtual State  International/Interstate Agencies  Virtual Army, E-Military, Cyberwars  E-Terrorism, E-Dictatorship, E-Cults  “…in a tectonic shift, individuals and small groups will have greater access to lethal and disruptive technologies (particularly precision-strike capabilities, cyber instruments, and bioterror weaponry), enabling them to perpetrate large-scale violence—a capability formerly the monopoly of states…” Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council, U. S. A.  The role of A. I.  The Matrix Trilogy?  Is it plausible by 2050?
  27. 27. Nation  Back to Definition of Nation  Culturally homogeneous groups of people, larger than a single tribe or community, which share a common language, institutions, religion, and historical experience.  Multiculturalism  Cyberspace – leading to cultural unification or diversity?  Multiple destinies  Multiple languages  Multi-national States  Will cyberspace and social networks help creating a shared vision?  Different Cyber-histories?
  28. 28. Forming a Cyber-nation Cyber- nation Interests Threats Vision Governance Passions Connections Shared Knowledge
  29. 29. Future Works: Cyber-nation, Drivers and Limits Power Justice Politics Honor Wealth Kindness Advertisement / Promotion Rationale Insight / Outlook Action Lotus Theoretical Framework Work in progress, Farzad Khandan
  30. 30. Conclusions  There are multiple alternatives thinking about the future of Nation-State in the context of Cyberspace  Each alternative future can be derived by starting from the legacy model and replacing some of the entities and functions by their cyber counter parts  Among the alternatives, some are plausible in 2050  We need a holistic and flexible framework to analyze the future of cyber-nations. Such a framework has to be designed.

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