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The Midwest Solar Market: Hot or Not?

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Is solar poised to grow in the Midwest? This presentation to the Midwest Solar Expo by Institute for Local Self-Reliance Director of Democratic Energy John Farrell explains the enormous potential for solar, the favorable economics, and the opportunities for local action to make solar a reality.

Published in: Environment, Business
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The Midwest Solar Market: Hot or Not?

  1. H O T O R N O T ? T H E M I D W E S T S O L A R M A R K E T John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy May 16, 2014
  2. Credit: Flickr user blmiers2 Big picture: For years, solar was about remote power installations and the environment
  3. Now solar is about the economics
  4. POTENTIAL PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY FROM LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR 50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10% 20% 42% 31% 18% 23% 24% 19% 19% 28% 23% 24% 24% 26% 21% 12% 11% 52% 51% 49% 22% 23% 21% 23% 19% 14% 38% 41% 26% 35% 28% 19% 25% 21% 25% 24% 20% 22% 19% 23% 17% 23% 18% 20% 15% 24% 21% 18% Residential and Commercial roofs L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L 21% 23% 49%
  5. S AV I N G W I T H S O L A R
  6. 0¢ 3¢ 6¢ 9¢ 12¢ 15¢ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 IA IL IN KS MI MN MO ND NE OH SD WI Average R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S (Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)
  7. 0¢ 3¢ 6¢ 9¢ 12¢ 15¢ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average of Midwest states R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S 4.7% per year 3% per year (Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)
  8. 07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 st states R I C I T Y P R I C E S 4.7% per year
  9. 07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 st states R I C I T Y P R I C E S 4.7% per year
  10. 0¢ 10¢ 20¢ 30¢ 40¢ 50¢ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average Midwest residential retail electricity price Levelized cost of solar electricity (Minneapolis) Cost of solar with ITC S O L A R PA R I T Y I S C O M I N G 4.7% per year Subsidized Solar Parity Unsubsidized Solar Parity (¢ per kilowatt-hour)
  11. POTENTIAL PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY FROM LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR 50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10% 20% 42% 31% 18% 23% 24% 19% 19% 28% 23% 24% 24% 26% 21% 12% 11% 52% 51% 49% 22% 23% 21% 23% 19% 14% 38% 41% 26% 35% 28% 19% 25% 21% 25% 24% 20% 22% 19% 23% 17% 23% 18% 20% 15% 24% 21% 18% Residential and Commercial roofs L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L 21% 23% 49%
  12. 8500 590 750 30,000 16,000 7200 11,000 1800 990 3600 12,000 780 7000 8200 5100 11,000 1900 26,000 2400 7300 5100 360 2600 1100 1200 800 1400 4800 1800 32,000 5000 580 970 2300 4100 4400 2900 7200 6800 2800 7100 11,000 11,000 550010,000 12,000 20 1140 700 4000 Residential and Commercial roofs (Megawatts) S O L A R PA R I T Y AT PA R I T Y ( 2 0 2 2 ) PERCENT OF SALES 1-5% 5-10% 10% or more 30,000 6 7 G I G AWAT T S See ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports for data
  13. VA L U E
  14. $0.00 $0.03 $0.06 $0.08 $0.11 $0.14 Brown energy replacement Avoided transmission losses Environmental Avoided transmission access Local capacity value L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E (per kilowatt-hour) Solar is valuable! 14.7¢
  15. L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E (economy)
  16. Not local 0 25 50 75 100 very negative negative neutral positive very positive L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E (political)
  17. Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy Not local 0 25 50 75 100 very negative negative neutral positive very positive -44% +33% +77% net approval Local Ownership L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E (political)
  18. Other 54% Individuals & Farmers 46% Germany’s Energy Revolution Still People Powered 29,000 MW 27% renewable
  19. G R E AT O P P O R T U N I T Y
  20. I N S TA L L E D S O L A R C A PA C I T Y ( M W ) 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 Sources: SEIA & ACORE 0 . 3 G I G AWAT T S
  21. Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit N . D A K O TA 1 0 0 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  22. S . D A K O TA Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  23. N E B R A S K A Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit 2 5 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  24. K A N S A S Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit 2 5 / 2 0 0 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  25. I O WA Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit 5 0 0 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  26. W I S C O N S I N Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax 2 0 / 1 0 0 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  27. 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price M I C H I G A N Solar standard (RPS)* Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax 1 5 0 K W *triple credit under RPS Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20
  28. I N D I A N A Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax 1 0 0 0 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  29. O H I O Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax U N L . K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  30. I L L I N O I S Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax 4 0 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  31. M I S S O U R I Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax 1 0 0 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price ?
  32. M I N N E S O TA Solar standard (RPS) Community solar Value of solar Net metering State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax 1 0 0 0 K W Source: DSIRE 18 21 48 39 88 <1 <1 <1 <1 1 58 20 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ 25¢ Residential retail electricity price Value of solar Solar price with ITC Solar price
  33. L O C A L P O L I C Y
  34. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Installed Cost per Watt $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 13% 15% 19% 26% 39% 5% 6% 8% 12% 22% L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G Data from The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times (LBNL, 2013) ...the savings Approx.year for residential installation* 2013 2017 2023 *From ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports: http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/ As the cost of solar falls... from permitting rise streamlined
  35. L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G Leading Cities Vote Solar: Project Permit
  36. L O C A L E N E R G Y F I N A N C I N G http://pacenow.org/
  37. Active CCAs No active CCAs C O M M U N I T Y C H O I C E
  38. F R A N C H I S E LEVERAGE UtilitiesCities
  39. L O C A L P O W E R S A N TA F EB O U L D E R 2x Coal
  40. T H A N K Y O U ! 21% http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/

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