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Solar in Minnesota: Great Potential

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Solar in Minnesota: Great Potential

  1. 1. Solar in Minnesota:Great Promise<br />John Farrell<br />Institute for Local Self-Reliance<br />Presentation to Solar Minnesota<br />Minneapolis| April 25, 2011<br />
  2. 2. @ the Institute for Local Self-Reliance <br />Who We Are<br />Community Banking <br />Initiative<br />Energy Self-Reliant States<br />
  3. 3. Overview<br />State of Solar in Minnesota<br />Opportunities for Cost Reductions<br />The Value of Solar<br />Policy Matters<br />
  4. 4. A Small but Growing Market<br />Installed Capacity: 4 MW<br />Installed in 2010: 1.8 MW – 45%<br />Photo credit: CERTs<br />
  5. 5. Minnesota Solar = Expensive?<br />From page 19 of the brilliant report,<br />Tracking the Sun III: The Installed Cost of Photovoltaics in the U.S. from 1998-2009 (large pdf).<br />
  6. 6. Cost of Solar != Market Size<br />Solar PV Costs - Does State Market Size Matter? | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/4ypjblp<br />
  7. 7. Opportunities for Cost Reductions<br />40% PRICE DROP!<br />4 years<br />German solar market 2006 -> 2010 grew from 2.7 GW -> 16 GW<br />
  8. 8. Opportunities for Cost Reductions<br />$4.11 per Watt!<br />German solar market 2006 -> 2010 grew from 2.7 GW -> 16 GW<br />
  9. 9. Opportunities for Cost Reductions<br />$ per Watt<br />$5.09<br />$4.67<br />$5.65<br />$5.50<br />$5.20<br />$5.50<br />$5.39<br />$5.70<br />$4.78<br />$4.80<br />Installed Cost for Residential Solar PV Group Purchase<br />
  10. 10. Opportunities for Cost Reductions<br />60% drop in PV cost<br />5 years<br />Solar PV Balance of System | Rocky Mountain Institute - http://tinyurl.com/3dazuo8<br />
  11. 11. The Value of Distributed Solar<br />Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh<br />
  12. 12. The Value of Distributed Solar<br />Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh<br />
  13. 13. The Value of Solar<br />Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh<br />
  14. 14. The Value of Solar<br />Solving Solar's Variability with More Solar | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/65b5nyh<br />
  15. 15. RPS Policies with Solar/DG Provisions<br />www.dsireusa.org/ April 2011<br />WA: double credit for DG<br />NH: 0.3% solar- electric x 2014<br />OR: 20 MW solar PV x 2020;<br />double credit for PV<br />MI: triple credit for solar- electric <br />MA: 400 MW PV x 2020<br /> NY: 0.4788% customer- sited x 2015<br /> OH: 0.5% solar-electric x 2025<br /> NJ: 5,316 GWh solar- electric x 2026<br /> NV: 1.5% solar x 2025;<br />2.4 - 2.45 multiplier for PV<br />CO: 3.0% DG x 2020<br />1.5% customer-sited x 2020<br /> IL: 1.5% PVx 2025<br />PA: 0.5% PV x 2021<br />WV: various multipliers <br />UT: 2.4 multiplier<br />for solar-electric<br /> DE: 3.5% PV x 2026;<br /> triple credit for PV<br />DC<br />MO: 0.3% solar-electric x 2021<br /> NC: 0.2% solarx 2018<br />AZ: 4.5% DG x 2025<br /> MD: 2% PV x 2022<br />DC: 0.4% solar x 2020<br />NM: 4% solar-electric x 2020 0.6% DG x 2020<br />TX: double credit for non-wind(non-wind goal: 500 MW)<br />16 states + DC have an RPS with solar/DG provisions<br />Renewable portfolio standard with solar / distributed generation (DG) provision<br />Renewable portfolio goal with solar / distributed generation provision<br />Solar water heating counts toward solar provision<br />Policy Matters: State Laws<br />
  16. 16. Policy Matters: State Laws<br />
  17. 17. Policy Matters: Local Rules<br />Poor Solar Permitting Rules Increase Residential Solar Prices <br />by Up To 20 Percent | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/5ts5b2k<br />
  18. 18. Policy Matters: Local Rules<br />Poor Solar Permitting Rules Increase Residential Solar Prices <br />by Up To 20 Percent | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/5ts5b2k<br />
  19. 19. Policy Matters: Local Rules<br />Assessment of Mpls-St. Paul permitting:<br />Permit pricing is about 2x higher than ideal… ~$500 in Minneapolis and ~$800 in St Paul…Minneapolis has a terrific submittal guidelines …St. Paul does not. <br />[Minneapolis] clearly states their expectations: I.E what you need to submit to succeed and obtain a permit.<br />
  20. 20. Policy Matters<br />Ontario's Buy Local Renewable Energy Policy: An Update | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3o4th8d<br />
  21. 21. Policy Matters<br />Solar Could Save Minnesota Schools Millions | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/5sv8ond<br />
  22. 22. Summary<br />Minnesota’s small market has high costs<br />Promising cost reduction potential<br />Policy needed<br />State standard<br />CLEAN Contract (feed-in tariff)<br />Local permitting<br />Solar is Contagious | Energy Self-Reliant States- http://tinyurl.com/444c2og<br />
  23. 23. Solar is Contagious<br />1%<br />Solar is Contagious | Energy Self-Reliant States- http://tinyurl.com/444c2og<br />
  24. 24. Thank you!<br />John Farrell<br />energyselfreliantstates.org<br />jfarrell@ilsr.org<br />http://twitter.com/johnffarrell<br />

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