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Can Energy Democracy Energize the "Good Life" in Nebraska?

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Energy democracy is coming, but are Nebraska's (publicly-owned) electric utilities ready? This presentation by ILSR's Director of Democratic Energy John Farrell in Nov. 2015 explores the big changes confronting the electricity system and how power can be generated and controlled locally.

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Can Energy Democracy Energize the "Good Life" in Nebraska?

  1. 1. T H E C O M I N G O F E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y E N E R G I Z I N G ‘ T H E G O O D L I F E ’ John Farrell Director of Democratic EnergyNovember 21, 2015 Presentation to Nebraska Sierra Club
  2. 2. A L I T T L E H I S T O RY
  3. 3. Which best describes the electricity system?
  4. 4. Which best describes the electricity system?
  5. 5. Centralized Power House Commercial building Factory Transmission network Distribution network
  6. 6. T I M E S , T H E Y A R E A C H A N G I N G
  7. 7. S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y 1,221 kWh 846 kWh 448 kWh Efficient neighbors All neighbors YOU Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31 Great Good More than average > You used 47% less than your efficient neighbors HOW YOU’RE DOING
  8. 8. S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y 1,221 kWh 846 kWh 448 kWh Efficient neighbors All neighbors YOU Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31 Great Good More than average > You used 47% less than your efficient neighbors HOW YOU’RE DOING 1-3% savings
  9. 9. D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T
  10. 10. D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T 1 utility, 330 megawatts =
  11. 11. S M A R T C O N T R O L
  12. 12. S M A R T C O N T R O L 10-12% savings on heating and 15% savings on cooling
  13. 13. E N E R G Y S T O R A G E ( S O O N )
  14. 14. When did electricity sales peak nationwide? • 2013 • 2010 • 2007 • 2005 • earlier
  15. 15. 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 P E A K S TA G N A N T R E TA I L S A L E S trillion kilowatt-hours
  16. 16. What is the last year fossil fuel provided > 60% of new power plant capacity? • 2013 • 2010 • 2007 • 2005 • earlier
  17. 17. Percentofnewcapacity 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fossil fuel Renewable Gigawattsadded(whiteline) 0 10 20 30 40 50 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q2 R I S I N G R E N E WA B L E E N E R G Y S H A R E June 10, 2015 of new power plant capacity
  18. 18. Percentofnewcapacity 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Coal Gas Wind Small Solar Big Solar Gigawattsadded(whiteline) 0 10 20 30 40 50 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q2 SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH OF DISTRIBUTED SOLAR 44% 26% 18% 12% June 10, 2015
  19. 19. N E B R A S K A FA R M E R S G O I N G S O L A R Credit: Matt Ryerson/Lincoln Journal StarJournal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m
  20. 20. C O S T P R E S S U R E S Lower wholesale prices mean utilities with excess generation sell for less
  21. 21. AV E R A G E R E S I D E N T I A L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E 0¢ 3¢ 6¢ 9¢ 12¢ 15¢ 12.6¢ 8¢ R E L AT I V E LY L O W C O S T S ( H I S T O R I C A L LY )
  22. 22. At a high environmental cost
  23. 23. Centralized Power Yesterday Tomorrow Local CHP plant Storage House with geothermal Clean, local power 2015 House Commercial building Factory Transmission network Distribution network
  24. 24. F O R WA R D O R B A C K WA R D ?
  25. 25. F E E L S L I K E F O R WA R D “The nice thing about solar, when is the sun blaring the most? In the summer. So it matches up with our peak demand and really helps us.” Shelley Sahling-Zart Journal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m
  26. 26. F E E L S L I K E F O R WA R D “The nice thing about solar, when is the sun blaring the most? In the summer. So it matches up with our peak demand and really helps us.” Shelley Sahling-Zart “we’re a long ways from [the 1% net metering limit]” Journal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m
  27. 27. B A C K WA R D B I L L I N G P R O P O S E D
  28. 28. B A C K WA R D B I L L I N G P R O P O S E D F R U G A L U S E R S PAY M O R E B I G U S E R S PAY L E S S
  29. 29. Energy efficiency Makes cheapest energy less attractive
  30. 30. Fixed costs don’t mean fixed charges in most businesses
  31. 31. F I X E D C H A R G E S Fixed charges subsidize poor choices (because customers always pay)
  32. 32. Fixed charges slay solar
  33. 33. N E B R A S K A I S N O T A L O N E STATES FACING CHALLENGES TO DISTRIBUTED POWER Sources: Renewable Energy World, Greentech Media, IREC, Vote Solar and many more 10/21/15 http://bit.ly/DG-UnderFireMapData-ILSR
  34. 34. W H AT ’ S P O S S I B L E ?
  35. 35. H O W M A N Y S TAT E S C A N G E T 1 0 0 % O R M O R E O F T H E I R E L E C T R I C I T Y L O C A L LY ? • 8 • 15 • 30 • 42 • all of them
  36. 36. S TAT E C L E A N E N E R G Y P O T E N T I A L Source: Energy Self-Reliant States, 2nd Edition 100% or more 75 to 100% 50 to 75% 25 to 50% 25% or less Potential percent of power from local renewables 30 states!
  37. 37. Residential and Commercial roofs L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L 50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 25-50% 50%+ 15-25% P O T E N T I A L P E R C E N T O F P O W E R F R O M L O C A L R O O F T O P S O L A R
  38. 38. 8500 590 750 30,000 16,000 7200 11,000 1800 990 3600 12,000 780 7000 8200 5100 11,000 1900 26,000 2400 7300 5100 360 2600 1100 1200 800 1400 4800 1800 32,000 5000 580 970 2300 4100 4400 2900 7200 6800 2800 7100 11,000 11,000 550010,000 12,000 20 1140 700 4000 Percent of Sales 1-5% 5-10% 10% or moreSource: http://www.ilsr.org/commercial-roofop-revolution/ *No incentives D I S T R I B U T E D S O L A R P O T E N T I A L AT PA R I T Y * B Y 2 0 2 2 (Megawatts, residential & commercial)
  39. 39. 2300 megawatts E N O U G H S O L A R T O M E E T P E A K 2256 megawatts at peak winter energy use
  40. 40. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 $10.00 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Weighted Avg. Cost ($/W) Cumulative Capacity (MW) SOLAR INSTALLS DRIVE RAPID PRICE DECLINE
  41. 41. Everyone a Georgetown? No municipal utilities 100% wind/solar at 9 to 10.2¢ per kWh 100% wind/solar at 7.5 to 9¢ per kWh 100% wind/solar at 5.9 to 7.5¢ per kWh 5.9 to 7.5¢ per kWh 9 to 10.2¢ per kWh 7.5 to 9¢ per kWh 7.5 to 9¢ per kWh The per-kilowatt-hour cost for each state’s largest municipal electric utility to mimic Georgetown, TX, and supply the equivalent of 100% or more of its retail sales from wind and sun alone The Low Cost of 100% Renewable
  42. 42. W H AT C A N W E D O ?
  43. 43. R E A D U P
  44. 44. F I R E B A C K STATES FACING CHALLENGES TO DISTRIBUTED POWER Sources: Renewable Energy World, Greentech Media, IREC, Vote Solar and many more 10/21/15 http://bit.ly/DG-UnderFireMapData-ILSR
  45. 45. All Nebraska utilities are public power, owned by the cities they serve!
  46. 46. E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y I S C O M I N G
  47. 47. Credit: Markus Lütkemeyer via Flickr The 20th century utility had few resources to juggle
  48. 48. The 21st century utility may not have the capacity alone
  49. 49. E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y I N A C T I O N INDEPENDENT LOCAL GRID MANAGER = super efficient buildings A solution that New York is pursuing
  50. 50. A likely outcome for a monopoly that makes less sense as control disperses
  51. 51. T H A N K Y O U ! @johnffarrell www.ilsr.org C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S P R O V I D I N G T O O L S 1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y H U M A N S C A L E L O C A L O W N E R S H I P D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N

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