Changing Patterns Of Global Terrorism

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Changing Patterns Of Global Terrorism

  1. 1. Changing Patterns of Global Terrorism Faheem Ul Hasan<br />
  2. 2. Aim<br />To Provide an Overview of the Tactical<br />Changes and Emerging Trends in Trans-<br />National Terrorism<br />To Offer Some Perspective on the Way Ahead<br />
  3. 3. Global Trends<br />Demographics<br />Urbanization<br />Education<br />Migration<br />Secular vs. Religious Values <br />
  4. 4. Area Of Concern<br />Global<br />The Diaspora Connection<br />Self-Radicalization<br />Tactical Devolution<br />Pakistan<br />Afghanistan<br />South Asia Emerging as the Global Epicentre of Terrorism<br />
  5. 5. Strategic Trends<br />Al – Qaeda in a Strategic Cul de Sac yet Posing a Credible Threat to Global Security<br />• An Incomplete Ideological Battle Compounding the Problem<br />• Lack of Effective Trans-National Cooperation Creating an Advantageous Situation for the Terrorist Organizations.<br />• The Deepening Problem in the Global South:<br /> Need to Address Core Issues<br />
  6. 6. Changes In Tactics<br />Bomb Blasts Increasingly Being Replaced by Operations involving Small Arms e.g. Mumbai CST Attack 26/11/2009<br />• New Innovations in Training and Organization <br />
  7. 7. Changes In Tactics (Cont’d)<br />Small Groups and Sleeper Cells Increasingly<br /> Gaining Prominence.<br />The Lone Wolf Making a Comeback?<br />Decentralized Organizational Structure – The Case of JMB<br />New Innovations in Training: The Use of Char areas for training<br />Training Terrorists to Earn an Alternative Livelihood!<br />An Evolving Crime – Terror Nexus<br />
  8. 8. The Emerging Threat Scenarios<br />The Looming Threat to Critical Infrastructure:<br />Rawalpindi Water Supply<br />The Threat from Internet Radicalization: The Case of South East Asia<br />Fighting the Flow of Money: The Challenge from Terrorist Financing<br />JMB Financing – Bona Fide Investments<br />The Question of Nuclear Security<br />Terrorist or Insurgent – Where to Draw the Line?<br />
  9. 9. The Emerging Threat Scenarios <br />The Deepening Threat of Radicalization Across Societies<br />The Increasing Threat from Extremist Groups in the Context of South Asia <br />The Problem of Integration in an Increasingly Globalizing World<br />The Rise of The Radical Elements Across Different Societies: The Mainstream Becoming Smaller<br />
  10. 10. Getting The Message Across: Strategic Communication<br />Terrorist Organizations Globally Adopting a<br /> Multi-Platform Strategy<br />Use of Leaflets and other Print Methods<br />Increased Presence on the Internet<br />Use of Chat Groups<br />Using Social Networking Sites and the Use of<br /> New Media<br />The Terrorist TV Network – The Example of As<br /> Sahab<br />
  11. 11. What Lies Ahead?<br />Need to Address Radicalization and<br />Extremism at a National and International<br /> Level<br />Not Adequate to Fight Terrorism the Tactic<br />The Need to Fashion an Adequate Strategy to<br /> Fight the Ideological Battle<br />Understanding What Makes a Terrorist Group<br /> Tick<br />
  12. 12. What Lies Ahead? (Cont’d)<br />CT is not a the Task of the Governments<br /> Alone<br />Need to Engage Different Stakeholders<br />The Role of the Theologians<br />Media Playing a More Proactive Role<br />Importance of Building Social Resilience<br /> Against Terrorism<br />A Carefully Calibrated Multi Pronged Strategy<br />
  13. 13. Questions and Comments <br />

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