Tammy klein banner

894 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
894
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
107
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Tammy klein banner

  1. 1. Global Biofuels Outlook 2011-2020 October 25, 2011Hart Energy from Crude Oil to Biofuels Conference
  2. 2. New Dynamics in Global Biofuels Key Findings for Hart Energy’s 2011 Study Reality: Era of cheap ag/biofuels feedstocks is gone! Population growth and biofuels production will contribute to higher feedstock costs being a global reality Global demand created by public policies very progressive, especially in Europe, the U.S. and Brazil Tax credits (particularly in the U.S.) and other incentives to encourage biofuels production under evaluation and review Governments assumed Brazilian sugarcane ethanol supply availability to meet mandates, but our intelligence gathering suggests otherwise – this has impacted our supply/demand estimates for the 2011 study Global biodiesel market remains challenged The availability of commercial supplies of next generation biofuels remains limited (outside sugar-derived biofuels) and we expect this challenge to continue through 2020
  3. 3. Biofuel Mandates in 2011 Ambitious Targets – Can They Actually Be Met? Europe: North America: RED implementation & RFS2, LCFS, Intermediate blends GHG-savings Africa: Countries beginning to set mandates Asia Pacific: Blend levels vary highlyLatin America: more Middle East:countries pushing for Ethanol & mid and higher Jatropha level ethanol blends Ethanol R&D projects; Algae Biodiesel Ethanol & Biodiesel Source: Hart Energy’s Global Biofuels Center, No known biofuels program August 2011
  4. 4. Biofuels Supply v. Demand, 2011-2020 60% Growth in Total Supply and Demand by 2020 160,000.00 • Countries studied represent 140,000.00 90% of biofuels market • For the countries studied: 120,000.00 – Ethanol to represent 12% of 100,000.00 gasoline poolMillion Liters – Biodiesel to represent 4% of 80,000.00 on-road diesel 60,000.00 • Ethanol: – Western Hemisphere 40,000.00 represents 75% of production/consumption 20,000.00 – Strong growth rate in - Europe Total Total Total Total • Biodiesel: Supply Demand Supply Demand – Supply and demand to Ethanol Biodiesel double 2011 to 2020 – Europe to remain largest 2011 2015 2020 biodiesel market
  5. 5. Ethanol Penetration into the Gasoline Pool by Region, 2011 v. 2020 100% • Countries studiedPercent Penetration of Ethanol into the Gasoline 90% represent 90% of biofuels 80% market 70% • By 2020, for the countries Ethanol 60% Gasoline studied: – Ethanol to represent 12% Pool 50% of gasoline pool 40% – Western Hemisphere 30% represents 75% of production/consumption 20% – Strong growth rate in 10% Europe 0% – 20% penetration in Latin Asia EU 27 Latin North Asia EU 27 Latin North America Pacific America America Pacific America America 2011 2020
  6. 6. Biodiesel Penetration into the Diesel Pool by Region, 2011 v. 2020 100% • Countries studied representPercent Penetration of Biodiesel into the On- 98% 90% of biofuels market • By 2020, for the countries 96% studied: Road Diesel Pool 94% – Biodiesel to represent 4% 92% of on-road diesel 90% Biodiesel – Demand to double 2011 to On-Road Diesel 2020 88% – Europe to remain largest biodiesel market, highest 86% penetration rate at 12% 84% – Strongest growth rate in Latin Asia EU 27 Latin North Asia EU 27 Latin North Pacific America America Pacific America America America, penetration doubles between 2011 and 2020 2011 2020 – Generally flat growth in North America and Asia Pacific
  7. 7. Conclusion Key Findings for Hart Energy’s 2011 Study Reality: Era of cheap ag/biofuels feedstocks is gone! Population growth and biofuels production will contribute to higher feedstock costs being a global reality Global demand created by public policies very progressive, especially in Europe, the U.S. and Brazil Tax credits (particularly in the U.S.) and other incentives to encourage biofuels production under evaluation and review Governments assumed Brazilian sugarcane ethanol supply availability to meet mandates, but our intelligence gathering suggests otherwise – this has impacted our supply/demand estimates for the 2011 study Global biodiesel market remains challenged The availability of commercial supplies of next generation biofuels remains limited (outside sugar-derived biofuels) and we expect this challenge to continue through 2020

×