Intelligence Analysis & Deliverables

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Issues in conducting intelligence analysis and synthesis as well as calibrating intelligence processes for achieving the right deliverables.

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Intelligence Analysis & Deliverables

  1. 1. Intelligence Analysis & Deliverables Dr. Elijah Ezendu FIMC, FCCM, FIIAN, FBDI, FAAFM, FSSM, MIMIS, MIAP, MITD, ACIArb, ACIPM, PhD, DocM, MBA, CWM, CBDA, CMA, MPM, PME, CSOL, CCIP, CMC, CMgr
  2. 2. “More than ever, effectively seeing through or ahead of the competition is an art form (as opposed to a totally rational and structured technique), but one that is very accessible to those willing to learn its tools, techniques, and concepts. There’s a creative aspect to taking gobs of loose data and making sense out of them. Data on the competition does not come in nice, bow-wrapped, hexa-decimal packages that you can digest by spreadsheet, regression analysis, or even a well- written memo. It may appear in the form of a picture, an observation of the active crowd huddled around a trade show booth, the pregnant pause of a speaker on the podium in reaction to a tough question. The observer is the artist here. He or she needs to catch the important clues, piece this image together, and create the precious intelligence.” - Leonard Fuld, The Secret Language of Competitive Intelligence
  3. 3. “Now the reason the enlightened Prince and the wise General conquer the enemy whenever they move, and their achievements surpass those of ordinary men, is foreknowledge” - Sun Tzu
  4. 4. Intelligence Analysis is a context-specific scheme for assessing data thereby interpreting processes, synthesizing factuality, generating insights and actionable intelligence.
  5. 5. “Success for every business, whether it’s a one- person operation or a Fortune 500 corporation, increasingly depends on a timely awareness by key executives of the rapidly changing events impacting their organizations. Yet in most corporate settings, executives consistently work with massive amounts of raw data, small amounts of value-added information derived from analysis, and very little intelligence. Competitive intelligence reverses this traditional trend toward data and information and redirects it toward actionable intelligence.” - Shaker & Gembicki, The War Room Guide to Competitive Intelligence
  6. 6. Analysis as a Function of the Larger Intelligent Project Cycle Source: Craig Fleisher & Babette Bensoussan, Business and Competitive Analysis
  7. 7. The Intelligence Path
  8. 8. Data Collection in Intelligence Analysis This is normally a two-phase process well- structured with the aid of Pareto Principle as follows.
  9. 9. Secondary Sources of Data 1) Directories 2) Trade Publications 3) Newspapers 4) Federal Office of Statistics 5) Magazines 6) Journals 7) Newsletters 8) Transcripts of Speeches 9) Industry Periodicals 10)Regulatory Filings 11)Government Statements and Reports 12)Annual Reports 13)Analyst Reports 14)Online Databases 15)Vendor’s Promotional Material 16)Press Releases 17)Websites 18)Subscription News Feeds
  10. 10. Primary Sources of Data I. Observations II. Marketplace Surveys III. Interview with Internal Experts, Industry Professionals, Customers, Stockbrokers, Journalists, Suppliers to the Industry, and Sources of Published Reports. IV.Discussion Forums V. Internet Blog VI.Electronic Chat
  11. 11. Exploring Web Portals A web portal offers a broad range of services and resources while highlighting information from various locations on the world wide web. Types of portals include the following:  Educational Portals  Social Portals  Management Portals  Finance Portals  Technology Portals  Marketing Portals  General Business Portals  Scientific Research Portals
  12. 12. Examples of Finance Portals  http://www.finweb.com  http://www.ameritrade.com  http://www.qualisteam.com  http://library.advanced.org  http://www.nyse.com  http://www.moneyfactory.com  http://www.financecenter.com  http://www.financehub.com  http://www.investopedia.com  http://www.financial-portal.com
  13. 13. Intelligence Weblog Intelligence weblog provides access to information, wherefore users can update, add remark and recommendation based on analysis. It assembles, synthesizes and disseminates the information, while providing opportunity for interaction.
  14. 14. Market Blog Process Source: Arik Johnson, Competitive Intelligence Weblogs Frequency: Daily, Semi-Weekly, Monthly 2nd Sources: XML Newsfeed Subjects: Companies, Markets, Geographies, Behaviours Customers: Ranges from Salesforce to Executive Staff Alert Thresholds: Out-of-Schedule Notifications
  15. 15. Search Engines i. http://www.altavista.com ii. http://www.google.com iii. http://www.looksmart.com iv. http://www.infoseek.com v. http://www.lycos.com vi. http://www.northernlight.com vii.http://www.iwon.com viii.http://www.askjeeves.com ix. http://www.dmoz.org x. http://www.msn.com xi. http://www.directhit.com xii.http://www.excite.com xiii.http://www.go.com xiv.http://www.hotbot.com xv.http://www.yahoo.com xvi.http://www.snap.com xvii.http://www.webcrawler.com
  16. 16. Tasks to be Performed by CI Professionals • •Go beyond internet searches: collect from human resources. • • Go beyond public databases: collect hard-to-get information (e.g. private firms) from less obvious sources. • • Go beyond competitors: analyze whole markets and industries. • • Go beyond static analysis and current market statistics: predict change. • • Go beyond marketing intelligence: understand finance and cost accounting. • • Go beyond marketing, finance, and cost: understand strategy. • • Go beyond strategy: understand risk. Source: Ben Gilad, CI Education Harvard Style?
  17. 17. Identifying the Problem The Key Intelligence Topics (KIT) proposed by Jan P. Herring Key Intelligence Questions (KIQ)
  18. 18. Identifying the Right Metrics Analysts must ensure every intelligence analysis is driven by the right metrics. Without the right metrics, the analysis would be derailed. Metrics are key indicators of diagnostic or predictive value.
  19. 19. Data Source Evaluation Availability Reliability Accuracy Accessibility
  20. 20. Identifying Scope of Analysis
  21. 21. Levels of Intelligence Analysis i. Strategic Intelligence Analysis ii. Tactical Intelligence Analysis iii.Operational Intelligence Analysis
  22. 22. Strategic Intelligence Analysis  Trend Analysis  Opportunity and Threat Analysis  Impact Analysis  Variance Analysis  Competitor Analysis
  23. 23. Tactical Intelligence Analysis  Response Analysis  Pattern Analysis  Network-Structure Analysis
  24. 24. Elements in Analysis i. Assumptions ii. Perceptions iii.Facts iv.Beliefs v. Projections vi.Synthesis
  25. 25. Causes of Failure in Intelligence Analysis I. Problem of Technique II. Bad application of technology tool III.Error in data collection IV.Synthesis Error V.Error in identification of Problem VI.Project Mismanagement VII.Miscommunication
  26. 26. What are the Information Hazards of Competitive Intelligence Information? The objective of the Competitive Intelligence Program is to gather relevant information that is valid and accurate. Incomplete or inaccurate information may jeopardize the organization's CI efforts. False Confirmation: There might be instances of false confirmation in which one source of data appears to confirm the data obtained from another source. In reality, there is no confirmation because one source may have obtained its data from the second source, or both sources may have received their data from a third common source. Disinformation: The data generated may be flawed because of disinformation, which is incomplete or inaccurate information designed to mislead the organization's CI efforts. Blowback: Blowback may occur when the company's disinformation or misinformation that is directed at the competitor contaminates its own intelligence channels or information. In all such cases, the information gathered may be inaccurate or incomplete. Source: Yogesh Malhotra, Competitive Intelligence Programs
  27. 27. Four-Level Hierarchical Model of Analysis Failures Level Nature of Problem Individual Analyst-Level Failures Analysis Task-Level Failures Internal Organizational-Level Failures External Environmental-Level Failures Different natural analytical abilities Naturally limited mental capacities Natural motivation Cognitive biases and perceptual distortion Insufficient understanding and application of analysis tools and techniques Part of larger task Task discontinuity Unsatisfactory data inputs Disconnects from decision making Imbalance among key task facets Some decision makers don’t understand and appreciate analysis Clients cannot specify their critical intelligence needs or questions Under-resourcing the analysis function Lack of analysis-specific IT support Lack of thinking time Organizational culture and politics Time and trust Invisibility and mystery Misconception that everyone can do analysis Growing range of competitive factors Complexity and turbulence Data overload Globalization Educational deficiencies Source: Craig Fleisher & Babette Bensoussan, Business and Competitive Analysis
  28. 28. “The best intelligence in the world is of little use if it is not presented in a manner that makes it credible, compelling and relevant for senior executives.” - Outward Insights
  29. 29. Key Deliverables of Intelligence Analysis  Competitor Profiles  Customer Profiles  Technology Profiles  Supplier Profiles  Early Warning Alerts  Strategic Impact Reports  Situation Analysis Reports  Intelligence Newsletter  Annual Intelligence Reports  Generic Intelligence Reports  Due Diligence
  30. 30. Ten Commandments of Competitive Intelligence 1. Do not lie when representing yourself. 2. Observe your company’s legal guidelines. 3. Do not secretly record an interview if it is against the law. 4. Do not issue a bribe. 5. Do not use eavesdropping devices. 6. Do not mislead anyone in an interview. 7. Do not swap price information or capacity with a competing company. 8. Do not distribute or exchange misinformation. 9. Do not steal a trade secret. 10. Do not knowingly pump someone for information that could sacrifice that person’s job or reputation. Source: Fuld and Company
  31. 31. Dr Elijah Ezendu is Award-Winning Business Expert & Certified Management Consultant with expertise in Interim Management, Strategy, Competitive Intelligence, Transformation, Restructuring, Turnaround Management, Business Development, Marketing, Project & Cost Management, Leadership, HR, CSR, e-Business & Software Architecture. He had functioned as Founder, Initiative for Sustainable Business Equity; Chairman of Board, Charisma Broadcast Film Academy; Group Chief Operating Officer, Idova Group; CEO, Rubiini (UAE); Special Advisor, RTEAN; Director, MMNA Investments; Chair, Int’l Board of GCC Business Council (UAE); Senior Partner, Shevach Consulting; Chairman (Certification & Training), Coordinator (Board of Fellows), Lead Assessor & Governing Council Member, Institute of Management Consultants, Nigeria; Lead Resource, Centre for Competitive Intelligence Development; Lead Consultant/ Partner, JK Michaels; Turnaround Project Director, Consolidated Business Holdings Limited; Technical Director, Gestalt; Chief Operating Officer, Rohan Group; Executive Director (Various Roles), Fortuna, Gambia & Malta; Chief Advisor/ Partner, D & E; Vice Chairman of Board, Refined Shipping; Director of Programmes & Governing Council Member, Institute of Business Development, Nigeria; Member of TDD Committee, International Association of Software Architects, USA; Member of Strategic Planning and Implementation Committee, Chartered Institute of Personnel Management of Nigeria; Country Manager (Nigeria) & Adjunct Faculty (MBA Programme), Regent Business School, South Africa; Adjunct Faculty (MBA Programme), Ladoke Akintola University of Technology; Editor-in-Chief, Cost Management Journal; Council Member, Institute of Internal Auditors of Nigeria; Member, Board of Directors (Several Organizations). He holds Doctoral Degree in Management, Master of Business Administration and Fellow of Professional Institutes in North America, UK & Nigeria. He is Innovator of Corporate Investment Structure Based on Financials and Intangibles, for valuation highlighting intangible contributions of host communities and ecological environment: A model celebrated globally as remedy for unmitigated depreciation of ecological capital and developmental deprivation of host communities. He had served as Examiner to Professional
  32. 32. Thank You

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