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The power to predict basics and advanced forex analysis

The power to predict basics and advanced forex analysis

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The Power to Predict
using advanced analysis to trade
today’s Forex market
by Mike Hamilton
Part one: back to basics
Part two: advanced entry / exit strategy
My background story
• Traded stocks in the UK from 1984 - using a value system
• Invested in TA training heavily 15 years ago (UK & US)
• Traded commodity futures (grains and oil) in the boom up to 2007
• I now focus on forex day trading. I swing trade stocks (UK / US) and commodities
• Founder of TradeTheEasyway.com - simple modular training
• Managing Director of Sandton Direct Forex Brokers
• Trading style: pivots and cycles………….
Sold 80% of portfolio in early Sept '87 / traded property from '98 / sold .coms Jan 2k
Здравствуйте from
Майк Хамилтон
1 - Are you a scalper?
2 - A intra day trader?
3 - Swing trade / investor?
What type of trader are you?
Indicators are lagging / they can confuse the picture
I only use stochastics / macd on big time frames,
I only use 2 moving averages on small timeframes
I'm going to show you the code of trading
how the markets find levels
starting with the basics, then looking at advanced techniques for analysis
Part one: the basics
I’m going to share my trading edge with you
• support / resistance
• moving average
• trend line
Main market levels can be found using 3 pivots
• each touch weakens this pivot
• so if the level is retested enough times, it will normally break
• the 4th test is the break through normally
• resistance becomes support / support becomes resistance
Pivot 1 : support / resistance

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The power to predict basics and advanced forex analysis

  • 1. The Power to Predict using advanced analysis to trade today’s Forex market by Mike Hamilton Part one: back to basics Part two: advanced entry / exit strategy
  • 2. My background story • Traded stocks in the UK from 1984 - using a value system • Invested in TA training heavily 15 years ago (UK & US) • Traded commodity futures (grains and oil) in the boom up to 2007 • I now focus on forex day trading. I swing trade stocks (UK / US) and commodities • Founder of TradeTheEasyway.com - simple modular training • Managing Director of Sandton Direct Forex Brokers • Trading style: pivots and cycles…………. Sold 80% of portfolio in early Sept '87 / traded property from '98 / sold .coms Jan 2k Здравствуйте from Майк Хамилтон
  • 3. 1 - Are you a scalper? 2 - A intra day trader? 3 - Swing trade / investor? What type of trader are you?
  • 4. Indicators are lagging / they can confuse the picture I only use stochastics / macd on big time frames, I only use 2 moving averages on small timeframes I'm going to show you the code of trading how the markets find levels starting with the basics, then looking at advanced techniques for analysis Part one: the basics I’m going to share my trading edge with you
  • 5. • support / resistance • moving average • trend line Main market levels can be found using 3 pivots
  • 6. • each touch weakens this pivot • so if the level is retested enough times, it will normally break • the 4th test is the break through normally • resistance becomes support / support becomes resistance Pivot 1 : support / resistance
  • 7. Pivot 1 : support / resistance EURJPY daily chart 2013 to 2016 3rd test has false break 4th test is works well
  • 8. Pivot 1 : support / resistance GBPJPY 15 minute chart 12/7/2016 1 – London open – break out 2 – My entry 45 minutes later
  • 9. Pivot 1 : support / resistance This is a clean chart No indicators, just a line How many of you took the trade?
  • 10. • these are guide ropes not defensive lines • the 50 day average on a daily is the main trend guide line • the 200 day average needs to be tested sometimes to improve liquidity – if it holds – great sign of a move coming Pivot 2 : moving average
  • 11. Pivot 2 : moving average Blue arrows = support line Red arrows = touches of 200 ma Daily EURJPY in 2007 / 08
  • 12. Pivot 2 : moving average To trade the trend in this chart , only buy above 50 ma Same chart showing 50 ma Daily EURJPY in 2007 / 08
  • 13. Pivot 2 : moving average This chart does not respect the daily 50 ma in the middle period Same chart showing 50 ma Daily EURJPY in 2007 / 08 But this later period is very clean and trending well Many traders counter trend trade with lower success rates
  • 14. • the daily 50 ma is the trend keeper - if a chart is under the daily 50 I look to short highs, if its above the 50 I look buy lows • after a break away from the ma, the first test is normally a fade / pull back which then continues in the direction of the original break Pivot 2 : moving average
  • 15. Pivot 2 : moving average Same chart showing 50 ma Daily EURJPY in 2007 / 08 Once this daily chart holds above this support line Respect for the daily 50 tests is MUCH HIGHER
  • 16. Pivot 2 : moving average 50 ma Intra day EURJPY 15 minute chart this week Day traders can use this also!
  • 17. These are a problem for many traders because there are a few ways you can use them but I will show you how I use them, and later, why these are so crucial Pivot 3 : trend lines
  • 18. • from the most extreme point, find the next point so for a market that has sold, find a lower high • the more touches there are the better • the bigger the time frame you use for these the better • I do not use these on 5 / 15 minute charts Pivot 3 : trend lines
  • 19. Pivot 3 : trend line EURJPY – daily chart The higher lower trendline is drawn 1st the 2nd is a copy of the 1st line Then dropped down to find the right touches You end up with a very powerful pattern Which predicts these big drops
  • 20. Pivot 3 : trend line EURJPY – daily chart Simple, but watch what happens when you build this up
  • 21. Pivot 3 : trend line EURJPY – daily chart The lower trendline is a copy of the 1st line Then dropped down to find the right touches You end up with a very powerful pattern Which predicts this recent low Same theory – just bigger picture
  • 22. Pivot 3 : trend line EURUSD – 1 hour chart Sideways for 2 weeks!!!
  • 23. Put them all together and you can find key pivots Pivots are what we all need to find Trend lines and support / resistance help you find very powerful chart patterns They show you where the big funds are buying / selling I find so many traders miss this as they do not do the basics on bigger time frame charts! Basic Pivots summary : Why are these so important?
  • 24. Pivots USDCAD – daily chart Where are we going?
  • 25. Pivots GBPAUD – daily chart Where are we going?
  • 26. We all know markets don't move in straight lines but how do they move? How do they find a better way to predict the level to enter and exit? Part 2 : advanced forex analysis
  • 27. Trading is not intuitive, you need to know how the markets think and behave They move is predictive waves, But these are not random In the 1920’s Mr Elliot made a comprehensive study of wave patterns. This is one of the biggest part of my trade plan I will show you how to use it in forex Part 2 : advanced forex analysis
  • 28. Part 2 : advanced forex analysis - waves Wave 1 - happens when there is a lot of fear but the buyers step in and break out Wave 2 - profit taking and lack of support – this wave must be inside the original move. Wave 3 - those who missed out on wave one join in and original wave one traders are back in – this wave must be bigger Wave 5 - trend traders keep buying lows but momentum is now slowing
  • 29. Part 2 : advanced forex analysis Wave a, b, c, are corrections and the cycle may repeat if wave c holds above wave 1
  • 30. Part 2 : advanced forex analysis GBPJPY – 1 hour chart Brexit move Wave 3 is the powerful move, 3 and 5 are the completion of the move
  • 31. Part 2 : advanced forex analysis GBPJPY – 1 hour chart Brexit move wave pattern 2+ weeks later to close the gap left by Brexit at 13950
  • 32. Part 2 : advanced forex analysis Weekly GBPJPY
  • 33. Trading is based on support and resistance and emotion Markets need a reason, a trigger, to buy and sell Fibonacci is the best method to measure all of these elements We have designed a way of using this so it is the main part of our trading strategy Part 2 : advanced forex - fibonacci
  • 34. Here is a standard fib grid showing extension levels This is all about retracements / pull backs for entries Combine this with Elliot wave theory and you have the ‘code of trading’ Part 2 : advanced forex - fibonacci
  • 35. This is an ideal 5 wave pattern Retracements would line up with fib levels So entry and exits can be set by this This is at the core of my trading Part 2 : advanced forex - fibonacci
  • 36. Here is the Dow winding down from 2007 to 2009 You have wave counts And action around the 50 ma as we saw earlier But look what happens next….. Part 2 : advanced forex - fibonacci
  • 37. Part 2 : advanced forex - fibonacci
  • 38. Part 2 : advanced forex - fibonacci This is how my 3 hour GBPJY chart looks. Do I need ma’s? Do I need rsi? DO I NEED ANY OTHER INDICATOR to trade this chart ?
  • 39. We are launching our new website next week Sign up for our newsletter and learn about our events, live trading room and daily videos We will be offering free courses to those who sign up for the free newsletter and open a broker account with sandtondirect.com Get on our newsletter list for more details Go to our blog page to sign up - Tradetheeasyway.com What can Trade the easy way do for you?