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Hypothesis focused SEO - Tom Anthony

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Hypothesis focused SEO - Tom Anthony

  1. 1. SEO BY HYPOTHESIS Recommend → Hypothesise & Test @TomAnthonySEO
  2. 2. Cooking nuts in mud Replicated it, but devil in details Google black box - can’t always replicate #dmsso@TomAnthonySEOwww.madeinindia.tv
  3. 3. recommendation! WE GET IDEAS FROM ALL OVER… #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO blog post worked before colleague google guidelines new idea tried for another client
  4. 4. FROM THERE, WE MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS “Add ‘Free Shipping’ to title tags.” #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  5. 5. DO WE UNDERSTAND THE IMPACT OF THESE CHANGES ?
  6. 6. WE SURVEYED 2000+ SEOS… future of tv advertising Which URL ranks higher for the search:
  7. 7. MORE EXPERIENCED SEOS DO BETTER… 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Laypeople <= 3 yrs SEO > 3 yrs SEO
  8. 8. … BUT WE DON’T DO GREAT 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Laypeople <= 3 yrs SEO > 3 yrs SEO Coin flip
  9. 9. WE CANNOT PREDICT WHAT RANKS WITH ANY ACCURACY !
  10. 10. WE’VE BEEN A/B TESTING… NBED - we have started testing #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  11. 11. RECOMMENDATION → TEST “Add ‘Free Shipping’ to title tags.” #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO “Let’s test ‘Free Shipping’ in title tags.”
  12. 12. NOTHING HAPPENED #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  13. 13. Before After query search volume which tv should i buy 250 query search volume which tv to buy 1,300
  14. 14. THAT MADE THINGS WORSE #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  15. 15. <img src="product1.jpg" alt="Home 6 Piece Towel Bale - Geo Grey / Zest">
  16. 16. NADA… NOTHING… NO IMPACT… #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  17. 17. “Stand back guys, I got this.”
  18. 18. Before After
  19. 19. OH GOD… #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  20. 20. COULD BE OUR RESULTS AREN’T ACCURATE ?
  21. 21. NOPE, THE PLATFORM IS SOLID. WE SUCK. #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  22. 22. HARDER THAN ANTICIPATED TO PICK WINNERS #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  23. 23. CAN WE MAKE MORE EFFECTIVE RECOMMENDATIONS ?
  24. 24. LAST YEAR: RECOMMEND TO TEST
  25. 25. FOLLOW THE CRO EXPERTS - dis.tl/cro-hypothesis
  26. 26. MEASURE THE RESULT GATHER SOME DATA BUILD A HYPOTHESIS
  27. 27. BUILD A HYPOTHESIS
  28. 28. IT REQUIRES BEING SPECIFIC Changing <abc> will have an impact on <xyz> & thus improve organic search performance. Based on <evidence>, we hypothesise… #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  29. 29. FOR EXAMPLE.. Changing <title formats, by…> will improve <ctr> & thus improve organic search performance. Based on <survey data>, we hypothesise… #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  30. 30. HYPOTHESIS BENEFITS Made to be more consistent. It ensures there is clarity. #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO To support it we need data.
  31. 31. GATHER SOME DATA
  32. 32. Control Influence We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  33. 33. Control Influence Keyword targeting Internal links We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  34. 34. Control Influence Website ‘quality’ We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  35. 35. Control Influence Usage Data We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  36. 36. Control Influence External Links We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  37. 37. Control Influence External Links Usage Data Keyword targeting Internal links Website ‘quality’ We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  38. 38. Control Influence External Links Usage Data Keyword targeting Internal links Website ‘quality’ Test & Model We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  39. 39. Control Influence External Links Usage Data Keyword targeting Internal links Website ‘quality’ Survey & Study We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  40. 40. Control Influence External Links Usage Data Keyword targeting Internal links Website ‘quality’ Analyse Better We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  41. 41. Internal links Analyse Better
  42. 42. INFORMATION ARCHITECTURE #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  43. 43. INFORMATION ARCHITECTURE #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO • Few sites are this simple. • Can’t measure impact of changes.
  44. 44. CURRENT BEST APPROACH #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO Calculate internal PageRank Use interactive visualisations
  45. 45. VISUALISATIONS - USEFUL, BUT RARELY Credit: Paul Shapiro
  46. 46. INTERNAL PAGERANK - POWERFUL, BUT QUIRKY Credit: Paul Shapiro
  47. 47. PEOPLE SEE REAL RESULTS FROM BIG CHANGES TO IA See Alex’s fascinating Mozcon talk [PDF]
  48. 48. BUT REAL-WORLD CHANGES ARE: HARD TO MAKE & HARD TO UNDO !
  49. 49. OUR INTUITION IS REALLY BAD. !
  50. 50. WE ASKED PEOPLE, GIVEN A SITE…
  51. 51. ADD A NEW PAGE - LINKED FROM HOMEPAGE
  52. 52. IT LINKS TO SAME PAGES AS HOMEPAGE
  53. 53. WHAT HAPPENS TO PAGERANK? PageRank Change?
  54. 54. WILL ASKED ON TWITTER… #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  55. 55. …3/5 PEOPLE GOT IT WRONG NOPE #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  56. 56. GIVEN THAT, HOW CAN WE HYPOTHESISE THE IMPACT? ?
  57. 57. WEIGHTED INTERNAL PAGERANK
  58. 58. CRAWL THE SITE
  59. 59. FETCH & NORMALISE MOZRANK Raw MozRank Normalised MozRank 3.67E-13 1.0% 3.35E-11 94.2% 1.71E-13 0.5% 1.64E-13 0.5% 1.59E-13 0.4% 3.28E-13 0.9% 6.88E-14 0.2% 2.45E-13 0.7% 7.12E-14 0.2% 3.12E-13 0.9% 1.67E-13 0.5% #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  60. 60. OVERLAY MOZRANK ON TO INTERNAL PR ALGO 8.2 5.3 4.3 4.8
  61. 61. WHAT HAPPENS TO PAGERANK? PageRank Change?
  62. 62. MODEL EXACTLY WHAT WOULD HAPPEN 8.05 5.3 4.3 4.8 4.05
  63. 63. FIND THE WHOLE PROCESS HERE http://dis.tl/ia-pagerank #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  64. 64. Control Influence External Links Usage Data Keyword targeting Internal links Website ‘quality’ Survey & Study We have the same data as Google. Google has data that we don’t.
  65. 65. Website ‘quality’ Survey & Study Usage Data
  66. 66. USAGE DATA: WE CAN’T GUESS #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO It is impossible to guess what people prefer.
  67. 67. SERP TURKEY #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  68. 68. SERP TURKEY
  69. 69. SERP TURKEY
  70. 70. PANDA & QUALITY
  71. 71. • How do you communicate it to clients / bosses? • How do you benchmark it against competitors? • How do you figure out if proposed changes improve it? QUALITY?
  72. 72. Gather human rater information Google employs thousands of human quality raters to answer questionnaires about many kinds of website
  73. 73. Train ML models Google uses the human questionnaires as training data for ML models of “quality” Gather human rater information Google employs thousands of human quality raters to answer questionnaires about many kinds of website
  74. 74. 2011 Panda released The Panda quality algorithm starts being used as a batch process modifying the regular core algorithm Train ML models Google uses the human questionnaires as training data for ML models of “quality” Gather human rater information Google employs thousands of human quality raters to answer questionnaires about many kinds of website
  75. 75. 2011 Panda released The Panda quality algorithm starts being used as a batch process modifying the regular core algorithm Train ML models Google uses the human questionnaires as training data for ML models of “quality” Gather human rater information Google employs thousands of human quality raters to answer questionnaires about many kinds of website 2016 Panda goes real-time “Quality” becomes a first- class ranking factor in the core algorithm
  76. 76. QUALITY - RANKING FACTOR IS A PROXY #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO Google use Machine Learning to predict what we can just ask people. Actually measure:
 ML PROXY FOR QUALITY Want to measure: QUALITY
  77. 77. 2011: WILL SUGGESTS RUNNING PANDA SURVEYS #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  78. 78. PANDA SURVEY Client site 1 Client site 2 Would you trust information from this website? 72% 64%
  79. 79. PANDA SURVEY Client site 1 Client site 2 Key competitor Would you trust information from this website? 72% 64% 81%
  80. 80. PANDA SURVEY Client site 1 Client site 2 Key competitor Would you trust information from this website? 72% 64% 81% Is this website written by experts? 50% 46% 65%
  81. 81. PANDA SURVEY Client site 1 Client site 2 Key competitor Would you trust information from this website? 72% 64% 81% Is this website written by experts? 50% 46% 65% Would you give this site your credit card details? 29% 21% 43% Are there any noticeable errors on this page? 6% 4% 1% Does this page provide original content or info? 76% 72% 85% Would you recognize this site as an authority? 44% 33% 58% Does this website contain insightful analysis? 72% 62% 81% Would you consider bookmarking pages on this site? 44% 38% 56% Are there excessive adverts on this website? 2% 2% 8% Could pages from this site appear in print? 54% 54% 59%
  82. 82. MEASURE THE RESULT
  83. 83. DECK - HOW YOU CAN DO SPLIT-TESTING A GUIDE TO SPLIT-TESTING THE NEXT ERA OF SEO dis.tl/diy-ab-test
  84. 84. MEASURING EXAMPLE
  85. 85. HYPOTHESIS CATEGORY PAGE HTML IS VERBOSE, AND CONTAINS A LOT OF CRUFT. ADDING A LIST OF PRODUCTS AS STRUCTURED MARKUP WILL MAKE THE INTENT CLEARER.
  86. 86. ADD STRUCTURED MARKUP #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  87. 87. AN 11% UPLIFT #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  88. 88. REPEATED IN ANOTHER REGION - 11% AGAIN #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  89. 89. #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  90. 90. #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  91. 91. #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  92. 92. #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  93. 93. #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  94. 94. THE HYPOTHESIS DID NOT FIT THESE OTHER SITES. !
  95. 95. FINAL EXAMPLE - FRESHNESS #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  96. 96. COMPETITORS - MORE FREQUENT DATE ANNOTATIONS #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  97. 97. GOOGLE IDENTIFIES FRESHNESS AS IMPORTANT IN THESE RESULTS REGULARLY MAKING SMALL UPDATES FOR THIS CLIENT’S CONTENT WILL HELP GOOGLE RECOGNISE FRESHNESS. HYPOTHESIS
  98. 98. ADDED & UPDATED DATE MODIFIED #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO <time itemprop="dateModified" datetime="{{date}}"> Updated on: {{date}} </time>
  99. 99. AN 8% UPLIFT #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  100. 100. RECAP & TAKEAWAYS
  101. 101. THE MAJORITY OF SEO RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OBSERVATION
  102. 102. NULL/NEGATIVE CHANGES SLOW YOU DOWN #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO
  103. 103. EVEN EXPERTS STRUGGLE TO PREDICT THE IMPACT OF CHANGES OBSERVATION ME INCLUDED!
  104. 104. PAGERANK IS ITERATIVE & NOT INTUITIVE NOPE
  105. 105. IN ISOLATION RANKINGS ARE HARD TO PREDICT 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Laypeople <= 3 yrs SEO > 3 yrs SEO Coin flip
  106. 106. HYPOTHESIS FRAMEWORK
  107. 107. MORE IMPACT & QUICKER RESULTS #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO RUN TESTSBUILD A HYPOTHESISGATHER DATA
  108. 108. BEGIN TESTING, START HERE… distilled.net/diy-splittester
  109. 109. BEGIN HYPOTHESISING, START HERE… #dmsso@TomAnthonySEO http://dis.tl/pandaQ http://dis.tl/serpturkey http://dis.tl/ia-pagerank
  110. 110. THANK YOU! @TomAnthonySEO @WillCritchlow @Dom_Woodman
  111. 111. distilledodn.com

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