The Early Phase of a Radiation Accident:
Revisiting Thinking on Evacuation
and Exclusion Zones
Simon French
University of ...
Management of Nuclear Risk Issues:
Environmental, Financial and Safety (NREFS)
• Funded by UKEPSRC-India Civil Nuclear Res...
Chernobyl and Fukushima
• Both evacuated near residents and established
exclusion zones
– creating a public expectation th...
Related Issues
• What are the criteria for lifting the measures?
• Equity issues
– who to evacuate first?
– if you can onl...
Decisions based on
Intervention Levels
Measure
of Dose
Above this level, relocation would be
advised and offered
Below thi...
Uncertainty …
Unfortunately in the early
hours one may only have a
threat of a release and
uncertain forecasts of what
the...
More than one forecasting
model…
Upper IL
Lower IL
Thank You
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ISCRAM 2013: The Early Phase of a Radiation Accident Revisiting Thinking on Evacuation and Exclusion Zones

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Authors: Simon French, University of Warwick
Nikolaos Argyris, University of Warwick
William J. Nuttall, The Open University
John Moriarty, University of Manchester
Philip J.Thomas, City University

Published in: Education, Technology
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ISCRAM 2013: The Early Phase of a Radiation Accident Revisiting Thinking on Evacuation and Exclusion Zones

  1. 1. The Early Phase of a Radiation Accident: Revisiting Thinking on Evacuation and Exclusion Zones Simon French University of Warwick simon.french@warwick.ac.uk Nikolaos Argyris University of Warwick William J. Nuttall The Open University John Moriarty University of Manchester Philip J.Thomas@city.ac.uk City University
  2. 2. Management of Nuclear Risk Issues: Environmental, Financial and Safety (NREFS) • Funded by UKEPSRC-India Civil Nuclear Research Collaboration – UK: City, Manchester, Open and Warwick Universities – India: Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Department of Atomic Energy (DAE). • But the ideas here do not necessarily represent the views of our sponsors and • hopefully, they are not our ideas but yours. We want to discuss issues!
  3. 3. Chernobyl and Fukushima • Both evacuated near residents and established exclusion zones – creating a public expectation that this will always be the case • But in both cases it was feasible to do so • What happens for nuclear plant – near major conurbations • e.g. Mumbai – near major socio-economic systems • e.g. oil refinery, manufacturing?
  4. 4. Related Issues • What are the criteria for lifting the measures? • Equity issues – who to evacuate first? – if you can only evacuate some during the threat phase? • Feasibility – self evacuating populations outside the region for evacuation may impede evacuation of those more at risk • Uncertainty: it may not be as bad as you think, but still bad – how to deal with return of evacuees if the contamination level is higher than around Chernobyl/Fukushima today? • Uncertainty: what is the level of threat?
  5. 5. Decisions based on Intervention Levels Measure of Dose Above this level, relocation would be advised and offered Below this level, there would be little need to do anything except reassure the population In between these levels, many countermeasures would be implemented to clean up the area and protect the population Observed
  6. 6. Uncertainty … Unfortunately in the early hours one may only have a threat of a release and uncertain forecasts of what the dose to various populations may be. After the release, however good the data, there will still be uncertainty Upper IL Lower IL Probability
  7. 7. More than one forecasting model… Upper IL Lower IL
  8. 8. Thank You

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